Pool C -- 2013

[wally_wabash]

So if you're looking at SJF/Wabash/St. Thomas for that last spot, SJF has been lingering for a while, they have a great SOS, and (especially if the East RAC doesn't drop Alfred all the way out which they should do but probably won't) 2 RRO wins.  That is a damn compelling at-large case and might be the only one of the 2-loss teams that could break through the 1-loss candidates. 

SJF/Alfred could go from 2 RR wins to O with a little help from Waynesburg/Morrisville State and if the East RAC drops the loser out (more likely if Alfred loses).

Absolutely true.  That's where I think a lot of the at-large intrigue lies this week...not so much with the games amongst the teams we've identified as at-large players but with the fringe games against RR'd teams that could have that kind of impact on a team's criteria. 

[desertcat1]

Nice Job Wally  +k

[art76]

So anyway, my Pool C's are:
John Carroll
IWU
UW-Oskhosh/Platteville winner
Pacific Lutheran
Wabash

This is in no way groundbreaking as this is what we've kind of been pointing toward since Saturday evening and was pretty strongly alluded to (if not said outright) in the ATN piece that went up today.

Wally, you do a great job of this every year, thanx! If John Caroll does beat Mount Union so that UMU is now in the Pool C festivities, does it really change anything?

[ExTartanPlayer]

So anyway, my Pool C's are:
John Carroll
IWU
UW-Oskhosh/Platteville winner
Pacific Lutheran
Wabash

This is in no way groundbreaking as this is what we've kind of been pointing toward since Saturday evening and was pretty strongly alluded to (if not said outright) in the ATN piece that went up today.

Wally, you do a great job of this every year, thanx! If John Caroll does beat Mount Union so that UMU is now in the Pool C festivities, does it really change anything?

It probably doesn't change the end result, but if Mount is not granted special treatment, they may fall a notch or two lower in the Pool C pecking order (stress on MIGHT).  Mount's SOS is marginally lower than John Carroll's (JCU got a boost from St. Norbert's big year), but the difference is pretty slight and other than that, they're identical on paper.  I think Keith may be right that Illinois Wesleyan will be just a notch higher than the Mount/JCU loser (as he said, they're all so similar on paper: a loss against their undefeated conference champ, a win over their conference's RR third-place team, IWU has a minimally higher SOS that may even disappear this week with Mount/JCU playing one another) but they probably all go in regardless.  As wally and Keith have both said, the first four Pool C choices LOOK like virtual locks.  That fifth slot is verrrrrrrrry tough.

[wesleydad]

just great info.  fun to read and follow.  you guys do a great job with all this.  I like following the whole nation and this helps me keep up with it.

[K-Mack]

It's kind of a letdown to have it mostly figured out now. What are we going to do for the next 2-3 days?

[smedindy]

Speculate on the unforseen and unimaginable. Maybe see if we can do a mind meld with the committee to tell us, "YES, Wabash is in with a win. Otherwise it's SJF or St. Thomas, depending, or Thomas More depending depending..."

I was racking my brain to see how TLU could get an at large, but that would take some undertaking including one result that I can't even fathom. 

Also thinking of how much more intrigue there'd be for SJF / Alfred had the Saxons' not screwed up against RPI way back when.

[smedindy]

Just wanted to throw up the Massey win probabilities for the "B" and "C" contenders this final week:

"B" teams

Millsaps @ Rhodes - 55%. A negative result by the Majors could throw them off the "B" train and into the "C" conversation, perhaps. But then they'd have the same issues as the other South "C" teams.

Framingham St @ Worcester St. - 97%

Wesley vs. Alfred St. - 100%

Texas Lutheran vs. Howard Payne - 87%

Wash U. vs. Chicago - 92%

"C"

PLU has done all they can do.

John Carroll @ Mt. Union - Massey has the plucky upstarts as 62% favorites over the Purple. Hmmm...of course Massey's algorithms don't care of Mt. Union has any legacy, its just data attached to a name. Comparing the Heidelberg results, along with the sinking of Franklin and the JCU pasting of St. Norbert's, no doubt contribute to this.

Platteville @ Oshkosh - Oshkosh 67%.

Illinois Wesleyan vs. Elmhurst - 97%

Wabash @ Depauw - 92%

Thomas More @ Mt. St. Joseph - 93%

Alfred @ St. John's Fisher - Massey says SJF 52% of the time.

St. Thomas @ St. Olaf - 99%

St. John's @ Bethel - 6%.

[Schwami]

Smed, what does Massey say about W&J vs. Waynesburg (since this result may affect several Pool C hopefuls)?

[Bob.Gregg]

Looking at alot of data, Thomas More is probably the ONLY Pool C hopeful impacted by W&J/Waynesburg.
And, if W&J wins, it's gonna be hard for TMC to make it, though RR's are giving the Saints as much help as "is defensible."...

I'm really not sure TMC can make it at 9-1, strength of schedule an issue along with 0 wins against RRO....

[Schwami]

If Waynesburg wins, Thomas More isn't Pool C anymore, and SJF loses a win against a RRO.  Probably not much difference as between Thomas More and Texas Lutheran (who would be next up on the board from the South).

[Bob.Gregg]

I don't see SJF getting in whether W&J wins or loses.  Just don't see them, or Thomas More getting the final spot over Wabash, or the third spot over the UW runnerup.  Thomas More gets AQ is W&J loses.  And gets nothing if W&J wins.

[USee]

This is some great analysis, thanks guys. I love reading this stuff. It's hard to be as excited about this without my team in the mix but I really enjoy seeing the data. For the record, I agree with Wally and think his picks are the best 5 candidates based on the data, despite his red and white bias!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wally, I'd prefer to see Wabash get that 5th spot, but IF SJF keeps their 2 wins over RROs, their SoS advantage just might overcome 2 losses vs. 1.  It all depends how the committee weights the various criteria.

[smedindy]

W&J has an 84% chance of beating Waynesburg.