Pool C -- 2013

[bleedpurple]

RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.

I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

Bethels wins are all in-region.  That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings.  There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week.

First of all, you do an awesome job in analyzing and explaining all this. +k!

But I do have a question...

Is there something in the handbook that suggests that all RRO must be considered exactly equal? In other words, is a win over Mount Union to be treated the exact same way as a win over Brockport State (3 losses)? If the answer is yes, then that's ridiculous.  If the answer is no, I don't understand your position AT ALL.  Bethel's three RRO all have two losses.  Two of UW-W's opponents haven't lost a single game other than to them (obviously, that makes them ONE loss teams).  The other has two losses. In addition, coming into this week UW-W is ranked 13th compared to 23rd for Bethel in SOS (Maybe the margin is negligible, but for sure it isn't a huge Bethel edge).  I'm not sure what the criteria based excuse would be to put Bethel ahead of Whitewater. I'm sure I am missing something because you rarely do. If you could explain it to me, that would be great.

[02 Warhawk]

RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.

I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

Bethels wins are all in-region.  That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings.  There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week.

First of all, you do an awesome job in analyzing and explaining all this. +k!

But I do have a question...

Is there something in the handbook that suggests that all RRO must be considered exactly equal? In other words, is a win over Mount Union to be treated the exact same way as a win over Brockport State (3 losses)? If the answer is yes, then that's ridiculous.  If the answer is no, I don't understand your position AT ALL.  Bethel's three RRO all have two losses.  Two of UW-W's opponents haven't lost a single game other than to them (obviously, that makes them ONE loss teams).  The other has two losses. In addition, coming into this week UW-W is ranked 13th compared to 23rd for Bethel in SOS (Maybe the margin is negligible, but for sure it isn't a huge Bethel edge).  I'm not sure what the criteria based excuse would be to put Bethel ahead of Whitewater. I'm sure I am missing something because you rarely do. If you could explain it to me, that would be great.

Both teams have three wins over regional ranked teams, with Whitewater having the slight edge in SOS.

So I'm guessing Whitewater's lead over Bethel for the #1 spot in the West is VERY minimal.

This will all be moot if/when Whitewater ends up in the North.

[AUKaz00]

So if you're looking at SJF/Wabash/St. Thomas for that last spot, SJF has been lingering for a while, they have a great SOS, and (especially if the East RAC doesn't drop Alfred all the way out which they should do but probably won't) 2 RRO wins.  That is a damn compelling at-large case and might be the only one of the 2-loss teams that could break through the 1-loss candidates. 

SJF/Alfred could go from 2 RR wins to O with a little help from Waynesburg/Morrisville State and if the East RAC drops the loser out (more likely if Alfred loses).

If Brockport remains in the East RR for the secret, final ballot then I can't see Alfred sliding past them due to head-to-head result (though in my mind I consider an OT win a tie).

Also thinking of how much more intrigue there'd be for SJF / Alfred had the Saxons' not screwed up against RPI way back when.

Yes, not dropping that first game out of the gate would have made things a little more "exiting this saterday" as we say on the East boards.  One wonders whether we had started with the frosh QB that we turned to down 28-0 at Brockport instead of the frosh QB we started the season with whether the results would have been any different.  But, if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle...

[wally_wabash]

RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.

I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

Bethels wins are all in-region.  That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings.  There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week.

First of all, you do an awesome job in analyzing and explaining all this. +k!

But I do have a question...

Is there something in the handbook that suggests that all RRO must be considered exactly equal? In other words, is a win over Mount Union to be treated the exact same way as a win over Brockport State (3 losses)? If the answer is yes, then that's ridiculous.  If the answer is no, I don't understand your position AT ALL.  Bethel's three RRO all have two losses.  Two of UW-W's opponents haven't lost a single game other than to them (obviously, that makes them ONE loss teams).  The other has two losses. In addition, coming into this week UW-W is ranked 13th compared to 23rd for Bethel in SOS (Maybe the margin is negligible, but for sure it isn't a huge Bethel edge).  I'm not sure what the criteria based excuse would be to put Bethel ahead of Whitewater. I'm sure I am missing something because you rarely do. If you could explain it to me, that would be great.

A little mea culpa on this.  Somebody had brought up that Bethel had not yet played SJU so they don't get credit for that RRO win just yet.  And if they do beat SJU, then SJU is getting bounced off the back of the West RR wagon anyway.  That's my bad.  One other thing that I admittedly overlooked is Washington being regionally ranked in the South.  I keep forgetting that either 1) UWW played Washington and/or 2) WashU is ranked.  I also missed the part where Whitewater had a better SOS than Bethel.  So that's my bad.  Whitewater is a perfectly good choice for #1 in the West. 

As for your question...the answer is an emphatic NO.  The committee doesn't have to treat all RRO wins the same.  In fact, they aren't even limited to just reviewing RRO wins.  The criteria uses the phrase "results against regionally ranked opponents" which opens up the opportunity for a committee to take into acount any result against RROs, win or loss.  How the committee members want to weigh those results is up to the individual member I would guess. 

[desertcat1]

So the lose of PLU to Linfield is a good thing? 29-0 They held linfield to only 7 points for 3qt's and then held them to a season low 29 points?   If I read you right .. Good thing for PLU..  they are a very good team.  Would win most other 1st round games if they could get moved east,north,south anywhere but the catdome. 

[wally_wabash]

So the lose of PLU to Linfield is a good thing? 29-0 They held linfield to only 7 points for 3qt's and then held them to a season low 29 points?   If I read you right .. Good thing for PLU..  they are a very good team.  Would win most other 1st round games if they could get moved east,north,south anywhere but the catdome. 

I think the general feeling is that it is better to play against an RRO and lose than to not play against an RRO at all.  So, strange as it may sound, PLU being 8-1 and 0-1 vs. RRO is probably better than being 8-1 and 0-0 vs. RRO.  As long as you don't lose by 70 or something silly like that, which PLU didn't.  I'm pretty confident that PLU is going to be fine on Sunday. 

[hazzben]

A little mea culpa on this.  Somebody had brought up that Bethel had not yet played SJU so they don't get credit for that RRO win just yet.  And if they do beat SJU, then SJU is getting bounced off the back of the West RR wagon anyway.  That's my bad.  One other thing that I admittedly overlooked is Washington being regionally ranked in the South.  I keep forgetting that either 1) UWW played Washington and/or 2) WashU is ranked.  I also missed the part where Whitewater had a better SOS than Bethel.  So that's my bad.  Whitewater is a perfectly good choice for #1 in the West. 

As for your question...the answer is an emphatic NO.  The committee doesn't have to treat all RRO wins the same.  In fact, they aren't even limited to just reviewing RRO wins.  The criteria uses the phrase "results against regionally ranked opponents" which opens up the opportunity for a committee to take into acount any result against RROs, win or loss.  How the committee members want to weigh those results is up to the individual member I would guess.

Great clarification Wally. I made the same mistake initially, looking at 4 RRO and saying, they're all on Bethel's schedule. Except they haven't played the last one yet! Oops

The West 1 spot would seem to come down to a few things (assuming both UWW and Bethel win on Saturday).

1. Will Wash U win out and remain regionally ranked. And does it even matter, aka, will the West committee look at a Wash U loss and think, they won't be ranked. Or will they just assume they are ranked, even though once-ranked-always-ranked doesn't exist.

2. Will the loser of the UWP v. UWO game keep it competitive. I think its a good game. But if say, UWP got blown out by UWO, they could conceivably drop out of the rankings. 2nd loss, final week, in ugly fashion wouldn't bode well. Especially with Redlands, Chapman, St. Scholastica and St. Norberts presumably lurking just off the board.

3. What will the final SoS numbers look like? Bethel is going to get a boost and UWW is going to take a hit. What we don't know is how their other non-con opponents will fair. For instance, if BVU pulls off the upset (which is possibly considering how competitive they've been in IIAC losses) and Wartburg win, Bethel's number will creep a little higher or vice versa. Here a Wash U loss, regardless of what the committee does with RRO result, would affect UWW's Sos.

At the end of the day, I think it's probably a moot point. I'd expect both UWW and Bethel to get 1 seeds. But stranger things have happened, and so both teams would no doubt prefer to be the West 1 and basically guaranteed a 1 seed. Given name recognition (albeit not an actual criteria), I think UWW as a 2 in the West Rankings is in better shape than Bethel for a 1 seed.

[hazzben]

^^ And to get way ahead of ourselves, the team that gets the 1 spot in the final West Ranking would be in a better position to host a semifinal game should they win their region. Not a lock, but I think the team that gets slotted 2 and then seeded 1 is probably the lowest 1 seed in the bracket.

[MasterJedi]

^^ And to get way ahead of ourselves, the team that gets the 1 spot in the final West Ranking would be in a better position to host a semifinal game should they win their region. Not a lock, but I think the team that gets slotted 2 and then seeded 1 is probably the lowest 1 seed in the bracket.

Wouldn't mind a road trip to Bethel! And a win.   

[desertcat1]

So the lose of PLU to Linfield is a good thing? 29-0 They held linfield to only 7 points for 3qt's and then held them to a season low 29 points?   If I read you right .. Good thing for PLU..  they are a very good team.  Would win most other 1st round games if they could get moved east,north,south anywhere but the catdome. 

I think the general feeling is that it is better to play against an RRO and lose than to not play against an RRO at all.  So, strange as it may sound, PLU being 8-1 and 0-1 vs. RRO is probably better than being 8-1 and 0-0 vs. RRO.  As long as you don't lose by 70 or something silly like that, which PLU didn't. I'm pretty confident that PLU is going to be fine on Sunday.

Wally
I agree Plu will be fine on Sunday but , it's a different story on the next sat at the catdome..  Always a tough game for both teams.  It would be nice if the NCAA would fly them somewhere else?  but the $$$ will rule again this year I think.

[wally_wabash]

Wally
I agree Plu will be fine on Sunday but , it's a different story on the next sat at the catdome..  Always a tough game for both teams.  It would be nice if the NCAA would fly them somewhere else?  but the $$$ will rule again this year I think.

I've got to dive into this later when I have more time to see if there is any reasonable way to split up the NWC teams.  Right now it doesn't look like it, unfortunately.  Redlands is orphaned and is going to have to go somewhere.  Somebody is going to have to go to Texas.  I think Millsaps can just barely drive to UMHB, but I doubt that will happen if you can easily fly Redlands to Texas.  But I'll have to see the rest of the field and try to pair teams off to see if there are any odd teams out in the midwest/mid-Atlantic/northeast.  Last year North Central was the odd team out and got paired up out West for their games.  If there's another situation like that, then maybe you can bus Millsaps to Texas, fly Redlands to McMinnville, and let PLU go play anybody other than Linfield.  Maybe. 

[jknezek]

Wally
I agree Plu will be fine on Sunday but , it's a different story on the next sat at the catdome..  Always a tough game for both teams.  It would be nice if the NCAA would fly them somewhere else?  but the $$$ will rule again this year I think.

I've got to dive into this later when I have more time to see if there is any reasonable way to split up the NWC teams.  Right now it doesn't look like it, unfortunately.  Redlands is orphaned and is going to have to go somewhere.  Somebody is going to have to go to Texas.  I think Millsaps can just barely drive to UMHB, but I doubt that will happen if you can easily fly Redlands to Texas.  But I'll have to see the rest of the field and try to pair teams off to see if there are any odd teams out in the midwest/mid-Atlantic/northeast.  Last year North Central was the odd team out and got paired up out West for their games.  If there's another situation like that, then maybe you can bus Millsaps to Texas, fly Redlands to McMinnville, and let PLU go play anybody other than Linfield.  Maybe.

Wally, don't forget about Maryville from the USASC. As a Pool A, they can only bus to Millsaps (490) or the ODAC champion (more likely the 2 loss ODAC champ would go to Maryville). Everyone else is 500+ miles for them (JHU at 543 is closest I believe). I think they would pretty much guarantee Redlands to UMHB, Maryville to Millsaps, winners to meet in Rd 2 with the committee thinking the home teams would then be a bus ride. If it works out for the favorites, you would get away with 1 flight and eliminate 3 orphans in a somewhat legitimate 4 team pod.

[bleedpurple]

^^ And to get way ahead of ourselves, the team that gets the 1 spot in the final West Ranking would be in a better position to host a semifinal game should they win their region. Not a lock, but I think the team that gets slotted 2 and then seeded 1 is probably the lowest 1 seed in the bracket.

Unless....

And that's where the secrecy of the final Regional Rankings come in.  I am sure they don't release them because they are moot when the field is selected. The Regional Rankings are done by "advisory" committees, anyway. We tend to look at them and dissect them and, to a degree, forget they are advisory.  The national committee, made up of 2 "advisors" in each region, will form a group that may (or may not) embrace the same lines of thinking.  I am hoping this year's committee will use the pod approach around their 4 number 1 seeds.  There is enough overlap in the west and north regions to mix it up pretty well. In that case, they could conceivably seed the #1's in whatever order they do and we might never even be able to figure out who the #1 in the west was in the final regional ranking. In other words, if UW-W is ranked #1 in the west in the final regional ranking, but the national committee still wanted to rank Bethel as a 1 seed higher than UWW, they could do that. We might just assume that Bethel passed them on the regional level whether it was the case or not.

[wally_wabash]

Wally
I agree Plu will be fine on Sunday but , it's a different story on the next sat at the catdome..  Always a tough game for both teams.  It would be nice if the NCAA would fly them somewhere else?  but the $$$ will rule again this year I think.

I've got to dive into this later when I have more time to see if there is any reasonable way to split up the NWC teams.  Right now it doesn't look like it, unfortunately.  Redlands is orphaned and is going to have to go somewhere.  Somebody is going to have to go to Texas.  I think Millsaps can just barely drive to UMHB, but I doubt that will happen if you can easily fly Redlands to Texas.  But I'll have to see the rest of the field and try to pair teams off to see if there are any odd teams out in the midwest/mid-Atlantic/northeast.  Last year North Central was the odd team out and got paired up out West for their games.  If there's another situation like that, then maybe you can bus Millsaps to Texas, fly Redlands to McMinnville, and let PLU go play anybody other than Linfield.  Maybe.

Wally, don't forget about Maryville from the USASC. As a Pool A, they can only bus to Millsaps (490) or the ODAC champion (more likely the 2 loss ODAC champ would go to Maryville). Everyone else is 500+ miles for them (JHU at 543 is closest I believe). I think they would pretty much guarantee Redlands to UMHB, Maryville to Millsaps, winners to meet in Rd 2 with the committee thinking the home teams would then be a bus ride. If it works out for the favorites, you would get away with 1 flight and eliminate 3 orphans in a somewhat legitimate 4 team pod.

Yeah, that's the kind of stuff that I need to sit down with a map and see visually who is close enough to who to get on the bus.  I was just saying that if there has to be two flights in the first round, you could conceivablly elect to shoot Redlands up to Linfield and then have PLU go play anybody else.  But if there only needs to be one flight, then that's probably what will happen.   

[jknezek]

I need to ammend my post. Thomas More and W&J is also within Maryville's range. Also Franklin and Wittenberg and Wabash. So I guess they don't really qualify as an orphan. Once I saw how far West Maryville is it opened up Indiana and Ohio.