Pool C -- 2013

[02 Warhawk]

To recap, my Pool Cs are:
Illinois Wesleyan
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific Lutheran
Concordia-Moorhead
 

Interesting stuff. I would think Concordia-Moorhead would still be considered for a Pool C if they were to get that dreaded second season loss (against UST). Looking around the country, I don't see any potential one-loss (Non Pool A) teams that stand out to me for a strong consideration for a Pool C. Wabash maybe (if Wittenberg can beat them)? Many potential one-loss teams, who would finish runners up in their conference, have sub par SOS. With that being said, I would think the committee would have to consider a two-loss team with a strong SOS in a strong conference instead.

Since I think it's highly doubtful three teams would get in from the same conference....that leaves Concordia-Moorhead from the MIAC looking good (even if they were to lose to UST).

Edit: The more I look at it, Wash U has a strong possibility as a two-loss team as well. I'll be interested to see where Wash U's SOS ends up, compared to C-M's at the end of the season.

[wally_wabash]

To recap, my Pool Cs are:
Illinois Wesleyan
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific Lutheran
Concordia-Moorhead
 

Interesting stuff. I would think Concordia-Moorhead would still be considered for a Pool C if they were to get that dreaded second season loss (against UST). Looking around the country, I don't see any potential one-loss (Non Pool A) teams that stand out to me for a strong consideration for a Pool C. Wabash maybe (if Wittenberg can beat them)? Many potential one-loss teams, who would finish runners up in their conference, have sub par SOS. With that being said, I would think the committee would have to consider a two-loss team with a strong SOS in a strong conference instead.

Since I think it's highly doubtful three teams would get in from the same conference....that leaves Concordia-Moorhead from the MIAC looking good (even if they were to lose to UST).

I wouldn't want to lose and pick up a second loss in week 10.  Especially to a team that would also have just two losses.  Checking common opponents...C-M would have beaten St. Johns who beat St. Thomas.  But St. Thomas has a h2h win and played a better game with regionally ranked Bethel.  Then if you want to factor in performance over the last 3-4 games leading into Selection Sunday, I really start to lean against the Cobbers.  St. Thomas might be ranked ahead of C-M if that's how all of this plays out. 

The West is a tough, tough place to start stacking up 2-loss teams.  You have to also consider PLU as a one loss team, Oskhosh or Platteville as a one loss team, St. Johns could be a one loss team (which would gak up the order of things in the MIAC, possibly knocking Bethel into Pool C which crushes both St. Thomas and C-M)...and you also have to consider St. Norbert if they run the table and have only a loss to John Carroll on their sheet.  Or Lake Forest as a one loss team.  Lots of interesting possibilities remain in the west.  But the moral of the story is that I don't think C-M looks good at all if they lose to St. Thomas.  It's bad timing as much as anything else. 

[02 Warhawk]

To recap, my Pool Cs are:
Illinois Wesleyan
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific Lutheran
Concordia-Moorhead
 

Interesting stuff. I would think Concordia-Moorhead would still be considered for a Pool C if they were to get that dreaded second season loss (against UST). Looking around the country, I don't see any potential one-loss (Non Pool A) teams that stand out to me for a strong consideration for a Pool C. Wabash maybe (if Wittenberg can beat them)? Many potential one-loss teams, who would finish runners up in their conference, have sub par SOS. With that being said, I would think the committee would have to consider a two-loss team with a strong SOS in a strong conference instead.

Since I think it's highly doubtful three teams would get in from the same conference....that leaves Concordia-Moorhead from the MIAC looking good (even if they were to lose to UST).

I wouldn't want to lose and pick up a second loss in week 10.  Especially to a team that would also have just two losses.  Checking common opponents...C-M would have beaten St. Johns who beat St. Thomas.  But St. Thomas has a h2h win and played a better game with regionally ranked Bethel.  Then if you want to factor in performance over the last 3-4 games leading into Selection Sunday, I really start to lean against the Cobbers.  St. Thomas might be ranked ahead of C-M if that's how all of this plays out. 

The West is a tough, tough place to start stacking up 2-loss teams.  You have to also consider PLU as a one loss team, Oskhosh or Platteville as a one loss team, St. Johns could be a one loss team (which would gak up the order of things in the MIAC, possibly knocking Bethel into Pool C which crushes both St. Thomas and C-M)...and you also have to consider St. Norbert if they run the table and have only a loss to John Carroll on their sheet.  Or Lake Forest as a one loss team.  Lots of interesting possibilities remain in the west.  But the moral of the story is that I don't think C-M looks good at all if they lose to St. Thomas.  It's bad timing as much as anything else.

If St. John's somehow knocks off Bethel, wouldn't SJU get the pool A? Then most likely Bethel would be a pool C. Like you said, that would crush St. Thomas and C-M.

I thought about St. Norberts, but their conference and SOS will hurt their chances. I remember a one-loss St. Norberts team in 2009 getting left out. So, I would a two-loss St. N team would be left out as well.

Good point about St. Thomas though. If they do beat C-M, then St. Thomas makes their way back into the discussion for pool C (only if Bethel beats St. John's).

[AO]

If St. John's somehow knocks off Bethel, wouldn't SJU get the pool A? Then most likely Bethel would be a pool C. Like you said, that would crush St. Thomas and C-M.

I thought about St. Norberts, but their conference and SOS will hurt their chances. I remember a one-oss St. Norberts team in 2009 getting left out. So, I would a two-loss St. N team would be left out as well.

Good point about St. Thomas though. If they do beat C-M, then St. Thomas makes their way back into the discussion for pool C (only if Bethel beats St. John's).

If Concordia beats St. Thomas and St. John's beats Bethel by less than 17 points, the 3 way tie-breaker would go to Bethel.  At that point I'd think it's all about whose opponents are regionally ranked.   

[smedindy]

I was just thinking how the West is crazy, and the North somewhat so, where a one-loss NCAC team could be left out as well. This is the wrong year to have three "B" teams, but what ya gonna do? Both teams getting a "B" would be in "A" consideration soon enough when their conference gets eligibility. If you're a "C" you should just be thankful you have playoff consideration anyway.

[AO]

If you're a "C" you should just be thankful you have playoff consideration anyway.

I'd be even more thankful if I was in a weaker conference with an A.

[Ralph Turner]

Actually we have three "B" teams because of:

1)  the 7 member SAA (pulling a Pool B bid into a Pool A in 2014 and going to 9 teams, Wash U and UChicago, in 2015).
2)  the 9 member MASCAC (which will pull a Pool B bid into a Pool A bid in 2015).
3)  the 2 members (CWRU and CMU) move to the PresAC in 2014.

I keep wondering what will happen to Pool B in 2015 when we are down to the remnant.

I guess that we can blame it on the NEFC breakup.

[smedindy]

In 2015, will there be just one bid or two, since it will be the MASCAC plus Wesley. When does the SCAC get their A bid back?

[Ron Boerger]

Unless something semi-miraculous happens, maybe never.   Don't see where they find three more FB schools unless HSU decides they want to be the next TLU and they have said numerous times they are happy in the ASC.   Even then you would need to have something like Colorado College reinstate FB (incredibly unlikely) AND have Schreiner or Centenary or UDallas also decide to add it.   UD tried a few years back and failed pretty miserably if memory serves.

Like I said, semi-miraculous.   Maybe even fully.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Edit: The more I look at it, Wash U has a strong possibility as a two-loss team as well. I'll be interested to see where Wash U's SOS ends up, compared to C-M's at the end of the season.

I agree, but WashU is a possible Pool B team; if they don't get in that route, they won't get in as a Pool C, IMO.

[wally_wabash]

Edit: The more I look at it, Wash U has a strong possibility as a two-loss team as well. I'll be interested to see where Wash U's SOS ends up, compared to C-M's at the end of the season.

I agree, but WashU is a possible Pool B team; if they don't get in that route, they won't get in as a Pool C, IMO.

At the moment, I have WashU at the top of my South region C board.  C-M's SOS is strong enough that I couldn't quite place the Bears with their extra loss in over the Cobbers.  But as discussed, if the Cobbers lose again, they're going to be looking up not just at WashU, but probably St. Thomas as well and they'll be out of the conversation. 

I think as long WashU keeps winning, they'll have a shot at the end of Pool C, if they miss out on Pool B.  They could be aided greatly in week 11 by Rhodes defeating Millsaps...which would give the Bears a common opponent advantage over Millsaps to go along with a huge SOS advantage...might just be enough to put WashU at the top of the Pool B pecking order.  Or at least ahead of Millsaps and Rhodes. 

[smedindy]

Unless something semi-miraculous happens, maybe never.   Don't see where they find three more FB schools unless HSU decides they want to be the next TLU and they have said numerous times they are happy in the ASC.   Even then you would need to have something like Colorado College reinstate FB (incredibly unlikely) AND have Schreiner or Centenary or UDallas also decide to add it.   UD tried a few years back and failed pretty miserably if memory serves.

Like I said, semi-miraculous.   Maybe even fully.

The ASC will be down to six soon, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps for football playoffs only, you all become some amalgamation. Then add Wesley as a satellite member, and a Frankenfootballconference is born!

[ExTartanPlayer]

Edit: The more I look at it, Wash U has a strong possibility as a two-loss team as well. I'll be interested to see where Wash U's SOS ends up, compared to C-M's at the end of the season.

I agree, but WashU is a possible Pool B team; if they don't get in that route, they won't get in as a Pool C, IMO.

At the moment, I have WashU at the top of my South region C board.  C-M's SOS is strong enough that I couldn't quite place the Bears with their extra loss in over the Cobbers.  But as discussed, if the Cobbers lose again, they're going to be looking up not just at WashU, but probably St. Thomas as well and they'll be out of the conversation. 

I think as long WashU keeps winning, they'll have a shot at the end of Pool C, if they miss out on Pool B.  They could be aided greatly in week 11 by Rhodes defeating Millsaps...which would give the Bears a common opponent advantage over Millsaps to go along with a huge SOS advantage...might just be enough to put WashU at the top of the Pool B pecking order.  Or at least ahead of Millsaps and Rhodes.

I agree (sorry for the tangent into Pool B on this thread, but the spillover does affect Pool C - back to that programming in a moment).  It's somewhat amusing, though - I'm not sure if its better for WashU if Rhodes or Millsaps wins that game (assuming that both win their other remaining games).  If Millsaps wins, WashU is probably behind 10-0 Millsaps and ahead of 8-2 Rhodes thanks to the H2H win...but if Rhodes beats Millsaps, it seems vaguely possible they'll end up slotted behind both 9-1 teams, despite their H2H win over Rhodes.

In any case, my head hurts too much to think through all of the future scenarios.  I just don't think 8-2 WashU gets a Pool C bid.  They'll get a B or they won't get in at all. 

Quick addendum: while I have loved the Pool B system preserving some guaranteed access to the playoffs for schools with no access to a Pool A bid, if Pool B is down to fewer than ten teams, I would actually be okay with the elimination of Pool B bids and just dumping all independents/homeless teams into the Pool C mix.  The occasional undefeated team or 1-loss Wesley with monster SOS would probably still get in through C most years.  With 10 or more Pool B teams, I don't like it (and I think we'll be right around that number).

[Ron Boerger]

The ASC will be down to six soon, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps for football playoffs only, you all become some amalgamation. Then add Wesley as a satellite member, and a Frankenfootballconference is born!

Speculation is that UT-Tyler (or, less likely, UT-Dallas) will add FB, which would take care of the ASC's # issue.

I've said this on the ASC board and been chastised for it, but I don't see the SCAC re-aligning with a conference than many of them chose to break away from once already just for access to a Pool A bid they can basically never win as long as you have the monster that is UMHB.    Yes, it would make football scheduling easier and a better draw  for the student-athletes, but I don't know if the SCAC decision makers have that as their primary concern.

[wally_wabash]

The ASC will be down to six soon, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps for football playoffs only, you all become some amalgamation. Then add Wesley as a satellite member, and a Frankenfootballconference is born!

Speculation is that UT-Tyler (or, less likely, UT-Dallas) will add FB, which would take care of the ASC's # issue.

I've said this on the ASC board and been chastised for it, but I don't see the SCAC re-aligning with a conference than many of them chose to break away from once already just for access to a Pool A bid they can basically never win as long as you have the monster that is UMHB.    Yes, it would make football scheduling easier and a better draw  for the student-athletes, but I don't know if the SCAC decision makers have that as their primary concern.

So it's better to play games with SWAG and play some teams twice than to have a consistent schedule that happens to include UMHB?  I don't know how that is better for the student-athletes.  And if the student-athletes aren't the primary concern for these administrators, then they're largely in the wrong line of work. 

I know there's more to it than that....lots of sports other than football to be concerned with there.  Seems to me that the practicality of the SCAC sponsoring a football championship has outlived its usefulness.