Pool C -- 2013

[wally_wabash]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

Yes.  Yes I can. 

[D3MAFAN]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

Maybe the NCAA knows something that we don't know regarding the NESCAC future regarding playoffs, would be very interesting.

[Scots13]

Wait, it turns out the handbook is wrong. I'll explain on the front page.

Okay, I have behaved myself since I got off frequent postings on the politics message board back in 2009, but this comment is just too ripe to pass over.

Which will be corrected first?

The Obamacare website?

Or the NCAA Division-III Championship Handbooks?

This just might be the funniest thing I've read/seen in 2 months. My money's on the Handbook though. I'd like to think Indianapolis can get things done faster or better than Washington can, given recent history.

[ADL70]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

Maybe the NCAA knows something that we don't know regarding the NESCAC future regarding playoffs, would be very interesting.

Check the front page. Pat confirmed with the conference office that they aren't participating.

[D3MAFAN]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

Maybe the NCAA knows something that we don't know regarding the NESCAC future regarding playoffs, would be very interesting.

Check the front page. Pat confirmed with the conference office that they aren't participating.

I read it and implying that the NCAA jmp the gun this year in that regard, but it would definitely be a shocker.

[Pat Coleman]

No, I'd say it's just another in a long line of errors caused by turnover in Division III championships positions and people being replaced by folks without Division III knowledge.

[d-train]

Pat, thanks for double-checking the list(s) today and for confirming with the NESCAC.  Attaway!

[wabndy]

I thought that the NESCAC's non-participation in the playoffs was more than a refusal to "accept" a bid.  Does NCAA D3 football criteria still require teams to play 9 regulation games in order to be playoff eligible?  I always thought that the NESCAC teams automatically rendered themselves ineligible for playoff consideration since they only scheduled 8 games a year.  Otherwise, what would legally (and we are talking about the NCAA here - where some enforcement policies make the federal tax code read like preschool material) prevent a Trinity from telling the NCAA on Week 11 - hey maybe we would like to play some more football?

[Pat Coleman]

As far as I know, that nine-game thing is a myth. It may have been true at one point but I have never seen it codified in black and white.

What would "legally" keep Trinity (or Wesleyan) from declaring eligible for the playoffs? I would think it likely they would get kicked out of the NESCAC if they did so.

[AUPepBand]

As far as I know, that nine-game thing is a myth. It may have been true at one point but I have never seen it codified in black and white.

What would "legally" keep Trinity (or Wesleyan) from declaring eligible for the playoffs? I would think it likely they would get kicked out of the NESCAC if they did so.

Heck, that (champ declaring eligible for NCAA playoffs and then being kicked out of NESCAC) would solve the NESCAC's scheduling dilemma as it would reduce the NESCAC number to nine and facilitate genuine round-robin scheduling in the NESCAC's "old school" eight-game schedule. Are there any revolutionists in New England (at Trinity or Wesleyan)? 

[Pat Coleman]

As far as I know, that nine-game thing is a myth. It may have been true at one point but I have never seen it codified in black and white.

What would "legally" keep Trinity (or Wesleyan) from declaring eligible for the playoffs? I would think it likely they would get kicked out of the NESCAC if they did so.

Hobart only played eight games a couple years ago.

[d-train]

When Lewis & Clark dropped half their schedule in 2005, Linfield made the playoff field with only 8 games.

[hazzben]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

Maybe the NCAA knows something that we don't know regarding the NESCAC future regarding playoffs, would be very interesting.

That would require a whole lot of foresight and competence on the part of the NCAA, something it's showing less and less of in recent years.

[wartknight]

Oh no, you didn't miss it earlier. Hadn't been written yet.

Can you believe they tried to award an AQ to the NESCAC?

I know this is probably not how it works, but I'm laughing at the image of some NCAA rep calling either the NESCAC office or the NESCAC champion's AD to congratulate them on their playoff invitation and make arrangements for the first-round game, only to be told "Uh, we don't play in the playoffs."

That would be too funny! Maybe the new asst in the AD office would take the call/message & inform the team/coach of their 1st ever playoff birth.

[wally_wabash]

How about some projections?  Here's what I've got through week 8:

Pool A:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Gallaudet
E8	Salisbury
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Wartburg
LL	Hobart
MAC	Lebanon Valley
MIAC	Bethel
MWC	Illinois College
MIAA	Albion
NACC	Concordia (Wis.)
NCAC	Wabash
NEFC	Salve Regina
NJAC	Rowan
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Guilford
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SCIAC	Redlands
UMAC	Greenville
USAC	Maryville
WIAC	UW-Whitewater

There's some crazy stuff going on.  Olivet knocking off Adrian puts Albion in front of of the MIAA...but the Britons shouldn't settle down just yet.  They've still got Hope and Adrian left to go.  Guilford took control of the ODAC, or at least as much one reasonably can.  One other change here is that I've put Rowan back in Pool A in the NJAC.  Rowan has already beaten Brockport and has games left with other co-leaders SUNY-Cortland and TCNJ.  If Rowan doesn't win the league, they won't be a factor in the at-large situation, so if you don't like Rowan here feel free to take your pick. 

Pool B:

Millsaps (7-0, 0.516 SOS) and Texas Lutheran (6-0, 0.400 SOS) are pretty clear picks here at this point.  Centre has dropped down to 2-losses and have lost h2h's with WashU and Rhodes so we can cross them off our list...probably for the duration of 2013.  Chicago picked up a second loss.  We'll keep an eye on them going forward as they have a game left with WashU which might be important.  So, what we've got left are four teams for one spot:

Rhodes (6-1, .509 SOS)
Framingham State (6-1, 0.560 SOS)
WashU (5-2, 0.596 SOS)
Wesley (6-2, .701 SOS)

WashU has a big SOS advantage and a h2h advantage over Rhodes which I think offsets the extra loss.  So let's place Rhodes behind WashU.  Framingham State...they've beaten Endicott, who very well may wind up regionally ranked if they keep winning and the rest of the east keeps eating itself.  They also have a loss to Rowan who ought to be ranked.  So they may be 1-1 vs. RROs.  WashU is going to lose an RRO result because Coe has played their way out of the rankings.  They do have one against Rhodes and another loss against UWW, so we'll call them 1-1 vs. RROs as well.  Does Huntingdon get ranked?  I don't know.  They're on the edge there.  Salisbury probably is.  Widener is a maybe.  We'll call Wesley 2-2 vs. RROs.  I'm going to pick Wesley here based on wins vs. RROs and SOS, but this is really razor thin between these four teams.  And if Rowan loses again before we see a regional ranking, we won't see Rowan ranked which affects Wesley and Framingham negatively even though both lost to the Profs. 

Pool C:
Here's how I'm ranking the at-large teams from each region this week...just the top three that's really all you need to get through the picks:
North: Illinois Wesleyan (7-0, 0.485), John Carroll (7-0, .504), Heidelberg (7-0, 0.345)
South: WashU (5-2, 0.596), Thomas More (6-1, 0.514), Christopher Newport (5-2, 0.550)
East: Ithaca (6-1, 0.544), Framingham State (6-1, 0.560), SJF (5-2, .602)
West: UW-Platteville (7-0, 0.400), PLU (6-1, 0.617), Concordia-Moorhead (6-1, 0.550)

A couple of notes...I have Merchant Marine lurking around 4th on the East board right now which is kind of cool.  The West is so deep.  Oshkosh is fourth for me right now, St. John's fifth.  Crazy depth in the West.  Ok, let's pick. 

My first pick is going to be Illinois Wesleyan.  The Titans struck a huge RRO win by beating Wheaton on Saturday.  Next I'm going with John Carroll.  I'm not sure if St. Norbert is regionally rankable right now or not.  If so, you could see JCU actually go ahead of IWU here.  Next up is UW-Platteville.  Platteville has nary a good win (Dubuque messed that up for them) and a not-so-good SOS.  But if they weasel their way through the WIAC with one loss, they'll have beaten either Oshkosh or Whitewater and that's going to get you in.  So I'm cheating a playing a little bit of futures here, but it's a small hedge...the Pioneers are still undefeated so I'm not reaching too far.  Next off is going to be Pacific Lutheran with their heavy SOS and at least one RRO win (Willamette or Redlands...one of those two ought to be ranked I think). 

So we're left with Heidelberg, WashU, Ithaca, and Concordia-Moorhead for the last spot.  I'm not going to play the same futures with Heidelberg that I did with Platteville.  Heidelberg is either going to win the OAC or split with UMU and JCU and wind up higher on the list here anyway.  Without any good wins and nearly the 230th ranked SOS, I need Heidelberg to earn it here.  Ithaca is fresh off a win over SJF which is nice, but it might have also knocked SJF out of the regional rankings which leaves Ithaca with nothing super noteworthy to hang their hat on.  WashU is going to have a win over an RRO (Rhodes) and will have played a close game with another (Whitewater).  While not part of the criteria specifically, the Bears didn't do themselves any favors by having a 7-0 game with Macalester.  Concordia-Moorhead however also has an RRO (at St. Johns) and a very good SOS.  I'm going to select Concordia-Moorhead for that final spot. 

To recap, my Pool Cs are:
Illinois Wesleyan
John Carroll
UW-Platteville
Pacific Lutheran
Concordia-Moorhead

And that's what I've got this week.  Huge games all over the place this week, so expect some significant shakeup next week.