Pool C -- 2013

[wally_wabash]

Safe to say that most likely a Pool C bid will come from the WIAC. I've read in previous pages on this thread that UWP is projected to get the bid. However, after many of us WIAC fans have seen both teams play, the WIAC faithful (including myself) are confident that Oshkosh will take down UWP...capturing that at-large bid.

Platteville's high-powered offense really struggled the other day against Whitewater's defense (just one offensive TD). In two weeks when Platteville travels to Oshkosh, the Pioneers are going to experience similar frustrations as Oshkosh's D can really get after the QB. Also, UWP's defense is very average at best. They won't be able to stop Oshkosh.

It kills me to admit that UWO is the better team, because I really thought UWP was the real deal back in August (better than UWW and UWO).

When I projected Platteville last week that was based on up-to-date records where Platteville hadn't lost and Oshkosh had.  That's probably going to change this week...were I to guess at a regional ranking order, I think Oshkosh would be ahead of Platteville.  Thankfully I don't have to guess this week and we will see the official regional rankings on Wednesday (and at-large projections shortly thereafter). 

Basically, I agree.  I think Oshkosh is the better side there and will get to 9-1. 

[smedindy]

I think it will be interesting to see where Framingham is ranked and if they don't get a "B" how they will stack up in the criteria against an OAC or CCIW team.

[smedindy]

Let's also remember that Heidelberg also has B-W to play. We've kind of ignored them since they lost to John Carroll early but they're not a bad club.

If Heidelberg beats JCU but loses to B-W, then everyone except Mt. Union (if they beat JCU) will have the dreaded two losses. That can move the NCAC runner up ahead of them and cement the CCIW runner up (with one loss) as #1 at large in the North.

[wally_wabash]

I think it will be interesting to see where Framingham is ranked and if they don't get a "B" how they will stack up in the criteria against an OAC or CCIW team.

Framingham, I think, is a slam dunk for the top of the East at-large board.  If they slip into Pool C, they have a very nice SOS, but zero wins vs. RROs.  And depending on how the RAC treats Rowan, maybe zero results vs. RROs.  They will maintain that SOS advantage over CCIW and OAC runners up.  What those runners up will have, however, is a win vs. an RRO and I think that makes it easy to pass up Framingham a few times until we get down to a situation where we are out of 1-loss teams with quality wins (Thomas More, maybe St. Norbert, Wittenberg/Wabash) or two loss teams (St. Johns, St. Thomas). 

[02 Warhawk]

A lot of Pool C bubble teams (especially those programs not in the WIAC, NWC, CCIW, and OAC) are pulling for a St. Thomas win this week. That could all but eliminate the MIAC getting two teams in.

That could be good news for the Wabash/Wittenberg game loser.

[hazzben]

A lot of Pool C bubble teams (especially those programs not in the WIAC, NWC, CCIW, and OAC) are pulling for a St. Thomas win this week. That could all but eliminate the MIAC getting two teams in.

That could be good news for the Wabash/Wittenberg game loser.

Yeah, Concordia-Moorehead is getting a bit overlooked in the recent discussion. They could definitely beat UST on Saturday. GAC won't be a pushover either, but if the Cobbers win out they'll have a strong SOS and resume just as impressive as any one loss runner-up from the CCIW, WIAC, NWC or OAC.

A UST win would clear things up in the West a good deal. Strangely, it would also potentially strengthen Bethel's seeding, as a UST win over a presumably regionally ranked Cobber team might bring UST back into the RR. I'm not predicting UST gets in with two losses, but it might, might give Bethel another W vs. RRO.

Fun time of the year!

[AO]

A lot of Pool C bubble teams (especially those programs not in the WIAC, NWC, CCIW, and OAC) are pulling for a St. Thomas win this week. That could all but eliminate the MIAC getting two teams in.

That could be good news for the Wabash/Wittenberg game loser.

There is no justice if the best conference in the land can't get a single at-large bid. 

[02 Warhawk]

My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Simpson (5-2)
Illinois College (8-0)

[MonroviaCat]

My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)

Pacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.  Also Linfield is 7-0 (not 8-0)

[02 Warhawk]

My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)

Pacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.

Good call. Revised:

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Redlands (5-2)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Wartburg (5-2)
Illinois College (8-0)

Redlands SOS is second best in the nation, plus they are in the driver's seat for the SCIAC title. Hence them me rating them so high with two losses (Pac. Lutheran & MHB).

[MonroviaCat]

My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)

Pacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.

Good call. Revised:

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Redlands (5-2)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Simpson (5-2)
Illinois College (8-0)

And really, Redlands may not even be on the list.  They have 2 losses and will not have any wins against a ranked opponent. They have a good SOS but that probably won't count for enough to get them that high on the list.  If they are on it at all, it would be at the bottom (IMO). 

[02 Warhawk]

My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)

Pacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.

Good call. Revised:

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Redlands (5-2)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Simpson (5-2)
Illinois College (8-0)

And really, Redlands may not even be on the list.  They have 2 losses and will not have any wins against a ranked opponent. They have a good SOS but that probably won't count for enough to get them that high on the list.  If they are on it at all, it would be at the bottom (IMO).

You could very well be right. I thought being conference champs and having a crazy good SOS would count for something.

[MonroviaCat]

My stab at the West Regional Rankings (regional records):

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Redlands (5-2)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
Coe (6-2)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Illinois College (8-0)

Pacific Lutheran beat Redlands and, with only loss, would probably be ranked ahead of them.

Good call. Revised:

Bethel (8-0)
UW-Whitewater (7-0)
Linfield (8-0)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1)
Redlands (5-2)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1)
Pacific (6-1)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1)
Simpson (5-2)
Illinois College (8-0)

And really, Redlands may not even be on the list.  They have 2 losses and will not have any wins against a ranked opponent. They have a good SOS but that probably won't count for enough to get them that high on the list.  If they are on it at all, it would be at the bottom (IMO).

You could very well be right. I thought being conference champs and having a crazy good SOS would count for something.

nah--being a conference champ (in this case) gets them a spot in the playoffs but not a regional ranking! 

[hazzben]

My take:

Bethel (8-0) RRO: 2-0 or 3-0 (see bottom three)
UW-Whitewater (7-0) RRO: 2-0
Linfield (8-0) RRO: 1-0
Pacific Lutheran (7-1) RRO: 2-1
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1) RRO: 0/1-1 (see bottom three)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1) RRO: 0-1
Pacific (6-1) RRO: 0-1
UW-Plattevielle (7-1) RRO: 0-1
Redlands (5-2) RRO: 0-2
UST/Wartburg/SJU (2 losses each)

You could make the argument for IC, but their SOS is 185. Wartburg and UST have almost identical SOS numbers, but UST could be credited with playing Bethel tougher, more recently. SJU could also be swapped in for either Wartburg or UST (who they hold the H2H over).

How the bottom 3-4 slots play out will determine who gets top billing between Bethel, UWW and Linfield. Bethel and UWW have nearly identical SOS numbers and will have very similar results vs. RRO. Linfield's SOS numbers a notch lower, with weaker RRO results. Given this, as Pat and Keith acknowledge on the podcast, the committee could look at UWW and Bethel as dead even, in which case last years playoff results become relevant. Strange that Bethel could get the nod in this case. Makes Buff St. hurt all over again.

[TitanPride]

My take:

Bethel (8-0) RRO: 2-0 or 3-0 (see bottom three)
UW-Whitewater (7-0) RRO: 2-0
Linfield (8-0) RRO: 1-0
Pacific Lutheran (7-1) RRO: 2-1
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1) RRO: 0/1-1 (see bottom three)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1) RRO: 0-1
Pacific (6-1) RRO: 0-1
UW-Plattevielle (7-1) RRO: 0-1
Redlands (5-2) RRO: 0-2
UST/Wartburg/SJU (2 losses each)

You could make the argument for IC, but their SOS is 185. Wartburg and UST have almost identical SOS numbers, but UST could be credited with playing Bethel tougher, more recently. SJU could also be swapped in for either Wartburg or UST (who they hold the H2H over).

How the bottom 3-4 slots play out will determine who gets top billing between Bethel, UWW and Linfield. Bethel and UWW have nearly identical SOS numbers and will have very similar results vs. RRO. Linfield's SOS numbers a notch lower, with weaker RRO results. Given this, as Pat and Keith acknowledge on the podcast, the committee could look at UWW and Bethel as dead even, in which case last years playoff results become relevant. Strange that Bethel could get the nod in this case. Makes Buff St. hurt all over again.

Hazzben -- what's the logic for putting Platteville above IC?  Platteville has a loss and a lower SOS.  Do you think a result against regionally ranked outweighs those two factors?