Pool C -- 2013

[art76]

One has to wonder a bit if the Regional Ranking committee didn't rank Redlands or Pacific Lutheran in this first ranking because of the current uncertainty in the MIAC and IIAC? If St. Thomas loses to Concordia this week and St. John's loses to Bethel next week, or if Wartburg stumbles, then, as a committee, you could slip one or both of these West Coast teams in later Regional Rankings and everything is right with the world. I don't know that they would think that way as a collective, but it seems plausible now.

[MonroviaCat]

One has to wonder a bit if the Regional Ranking committee didn't rank Redlands or Pacific Lutheran in this first ranking because of the current uncertainty in the MIAC and IIAC? If St. Thomas loses to Concordia this week and St. John's loses to Bethel next week, or if Wartburg stumbles, then, as a committee, you could slip one or both of these West Coast teams in later Regional Rankings and everything is right with the world. I don't know that they would think that way as a collective, but it seems plausible now.

Yeah--who knows what they are thinking.  But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking.  I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....

[hazzben]

But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking.  I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....

PLU is definitely affected by the current ranking.

But I'm not sure about assuming a MIAC team drops out. If C-M beats UST, they aren't going anywhere. If SJU were to upset Bethel (please no!), they will have a huge win over a RRO. Finally, if UST beats C-M it's possible they enter into the Rankings. Here's a thought, if UST wins Saturday, could both C-M and SJU drop out? Suddenly UST would have a W against a RRO, mitigating its loss to SJU early in the season and having beaten both teams that beat SJU. Maybe that creates two open slots. Thoughts?

I'd also expect that if UWP loses to UWO, which is what I'm predicting, UWP will drop out with their poor SOS and no good wins.

How Wartburg finishes will also affect things. If they win out, they'll likely remain ranked. If they stumble against Central, they drop out and make room for another team... The question is who? UST (if they beat C-M), Redlands, Pacific, Coe, Simpson, Illinois College, Greenville/CSS? (Central could actually shake things up a good bit with Wartburg and Coe the final two weeks).

It's all hypotheticals until we get some more data on Saturday. But I'm not panicking if I'm PLU. Win out and you're on the table, keeping in mind several of the teams in front of you still have serious challenges remaining.

[MonroviaCat]

But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking.  I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....

PLU is definitely affected by the current ranking.

But I'm not sure about assuming a MIAC team drops out. If C-M beats UST, they aren't going anywhere. If SJU were to upset Bethel (please no!), they will have a huge win over a RRO. Finally, if UST beats C-M it's possible they enter into the Rankings. Here's a thought, if UST wins Saturday, could both C-M and SJU drop out? Suddenly UST would have a W against a RRO, mitigating its loss to SJU early in the season and having beaten both teams that beat SJU. Maybe that creates two open slots. Thoughts?

I'd also expect that if UWP loses to UWO, which is what I'm predicting, UWP will drop out with their poor SOS and no good wins.

How Wartburg finishes will also affect things. If they win out, they'll likely remain ranked. If they stumble against Central, they drop out and make room for another team... The question is who? UST (if they beat C-M), Redlands, Pacific, Coe, Simpson, Illinois College, Greenville/CSS? (Central could actually shake things up a good bit with Wartburg and Coe the final two weeks).

It's all hypotheticals until we get some more data on Saturday. But I'm not panicking if I'm PLU. Win out and you're on the table, keeping in mind several of the teams in front of you still have serious challenges remaining.

Good points-PLU is done after this week (against Whitworth) so they will have a long, long week of waiting, followed by a long, long night of waiting. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking.  I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....

PLU is definitely affected by the current ranking.

But I'm not sure about assuming a MIAC team drops out. If C-M beats UST, they aren't going anywhere. If SJU were to upset Bethel (please no!), they will have a huge win over a RRO. Finally, if UST beats C-M it's possible they enter into the Rankings. Here's a thought, if UST wins Saturday, could both C-M and SJU drop out? Suddenly UST would have a W against a RRO, mitigating its loss to SJU early in the season and having beaten both teams that beat SJU. Maybe that creates two open slots. Thoughts?

I'd also expect that if UWP loses to UWO, which is what I'm predicting, UWP will drop out with their poor SOS and no good wins.

How Wartburg finishes will also affect things. If they win out, they'll likely remain ranked. If they stumble against Central, they drop out and make room for another team... The question is who? UST (if they beat C-M), Redlands, Pacific, Coe, Simpson, Illinois College, Greenville/CSS? (Central could actually shake things up a good bit with Wartburg and Coe the final two weeks).

It's all hypotheticals until we get some more data on Saturday. But I'm not panicking if I'm PLU. Win out and you're on the table, keeping in mind several of the teams in front of you still have serious challenges remaining.

PLU and Linfield both could really use a big Pacific win over Willamette this week combined with one of the lower-level teams losing THIS WEEK so Pacific sneaks in once.  Assuming they lose to Linfield the following week, they probably won't get in.  So PLU needs a little bit of armageddon at the bottom of the rankings this week that allows Pacific to get in there this week, giving both PLU and Linfield that win over a RRO.

Also, you listed Illinois College as a possible team that could sneak in, but I thought IC was already ranked #8?

[MonroviaCat]

But it seems likely that at least one of the MIAC teams will drop out of the rankings either after this week or in the final secret ranking.  I'd say the team that is affected the most by not having more West Coast teams on the list is Pacific Lutheran who is somewhat of a bubble team (based on current rankings) and could use a regionally ranked victory or 2 to help their cause....

PLU is definitely affected by the current ranking.

But I'm not sure about assuming a MIAC team drops out. If C-M beats UST, they aren't going anywhere. If SJU were to upset Bethel (please no!), they will have a huge win over a RRO. Finally, if UST beats C-M it's possible they enter into the Rankings. Here's a thought, if UST wins Saturday, could both C-M and SJU drop out? Suddenly UST would have a W against a RRO, mitigating its loss to SJU early in the season and having beaten both teams that beat SJU. Maybe that creates two open slots. Thoughts?

I'd also expect that if UWP loses to UWO, which is what I'm predicting, UWP will drop out with their poor SOS and no good wins.

How Wartburg finishes will also affect things. If they win out, they'll likely remain ranked. If they stumble against Central, they drop out and make room for another team... The question is who? UST (if they beat C-M), Redlands, Pacific, Coe, Simpson, Illinois College, Greenville/CSS? (Central could actually shake things up a good bit with Wartburg and Coe the final two weeks).

It's all hypotheticals until we get some more data on Saturday. But I'm not panicking if I'm PLU. Win out and you're on the table, keeping in mind several of the teams in front of you still have serious challenges remaining.

PLU and Linfield both could really use a big Pacific win over Willamette this week combined with one of the lower-level teams losing THIS WEEK so Pacific sneaks in once.  Assuming they lose to Linfield the following week, they probably won't get in.  So PLU needs a little bit of armageddon at the bottom of the rankings this week that allows Pacific to get in there this week, giving both PLU and Linfield that win over a RRO.

Also, you listed Illinois College as a possible team that could sneak in, but I thought IC was already ranked #8?

I think Linfield is probably stuck where they are unless a) they lose a game or b) Bethel and/or Whitewater lose a game.  I just don't see the Cats SOS or wins vs. regional opponents gaining enough to pass those two teams.  However, PLU would benefit from Pacific (and/or Redlands) jumping into the mix. 

[hazzben]

Also, you listed Illinois College as a possible team that could sneak in, but I thought IC was already ranked #8?

Yes they were. Good catch.

If UST wins, it would be interesting to see if they, Redlands or Pacific get in. Could also be two of the three (assuming a UWP loss and dropping out) or neither. UST would have 2 losses but be 1-2 v. RRO. Pacific would be one loss and 0-1 v. RRO. Redlands would be 0-2 v. RRO but with a strong SOS. Pacific would still have the stronger SOS when compared to UST I think (currently .537 v. .516), but not by much as the gap will narrow a little after Saturday's games.

[Ralph Turner]

How about this?

If Hobart loses against SLU or Rochester, then there isn't a power team to be the #1 seed in the East.

Does that move UMU to the top of the "East" bracket and make way for UWW (a "North" bracket) and Bethel (a "West" bracket) to head brackets?

That would let Linfield move to the #2 in the "West"  bracket.

[d-train]

How about this?

If Hobart loses against SLU or Rochester, then there isn't a power team to be the #1 seed in the East.

Does that move UMU to the top of the "East" bracket and make way for UWW (a "North" bracket) and Bethel (a "West" bracket) to head brackets?

That would let Linfield move to the #2 in the "West"  bracket.

Quite likely even if Hobart wins out.

[hazzben]

How about this?

If Hobart loses against SLU or Rochester, then there isn't a power team to be the #1 seed in the East.

Does that move UMU to the top of the "East" bracket and make way for UWW (a "North" bracket) and Bethel (a "West" bracket) to head brackets?

That would let Linfield move to the #2 in the "West"  bracket.

Quite likely even if Hobart wins out.

Yeah, I'd be very surprised at this point if even an undefeated Hobart ended up with a 1 seed. I think you're looking at Mount, UMHB and then two from the UWW, Linfield, NCC & Bethel group. I'd say Mount, provided they win out, is the odds on favorite to be the East #1 again. Especially given all the quality teams in the North and West.

[Pat Coleman]

By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Pat, that is news!  When (and why?) did they drop 'once ranked, always ranked'?

[d-train]

By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.

Really? ...very interesting.  That changes quite a bit of the analysis/hope that some fans have scraped together.

[ExTartanPlayer]

By the way, it is NOT "once ranked, always ranked" this year, so Pacific being ranked would have helped PLU this week but not on Selection Sunday if Pacific doesn't remain ranked.

whoa, whoa, whoa, really?

We've been making all of our assumptions based on that!  Wow, this changes a lot!

[Pat Coleman]

Pat, that is news!  When (and why?) did they drop 'once ranked, always ranked'?

Honestly, they have gone back and forth several times in the course of this playoff structure. I know the why is likely because they feel that a win against a team that could well end up 7-3 or 6-3 is not necessarily a valuable data point.

I feel any data point is a worthy data point.