Pool C -- 2013

[smedindy]

The "C" decisions really will determine how many teams get 'moved'. I think it's safe to say the OAC winner and UW-Whitwater will be leading brackets along with Linfield and UMHB. I think it's pretty safe that St. Norbert will follow UW-Whitewater, perhaps, and that if the "C" team is Wabash or Thomas More the OAC runner up will move "East". But if the MIAC gets a "C" or the East gets a "C", then that'll start the wheels spinning.

Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.

I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.

If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.

I can see that IF C-M is still regionally ranked. After this week, Linfield's SOS will rise, as will the OAC winner. UW-W will drop. It will all depend on where the West decides to RR these guys, I guess. I forgot Bethel was ahead of Linfield in the RRs. If that holds, then swap Bethel and Linfield, but still the premise works. There will be a shift, maybe two.

[AO]

I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.

If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.

Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane.  If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation. 

But that assumes Concordia-Moorhead is still ranked after losing this week, right?  Could be just Wartburg and the possibility of UST.

That raises my previous question about what is a regionally ranked win.  If St. John's was in the ranking last week, Concordia would have a regionally ranked win this week but perhaps not in the secret rankings if the Johnnies fall out.

[wally_wabash]

I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.

If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.

Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane.  If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation. 

But that assumes Concordia-Moorhead is still ranked after losing this week, right?  Could be just Wartburg and the possibility of UST.

That raises my previous question about what is a regionally ranked win.  If St. John's was in the ranking last week, Concordia would have a regionally ranked win this week but perhaps not in the secret rankings if the Johnnies fall out.

That's correct.  I think the with the number of quality teams lingering between 5 and the hypothetical 15th-ish position in the RR, it's pretty safe to assume that if SJU loses on Saturday, they won't be part of the final secret rankings and C-M won't have that notch in their belt. 

[AO]

That's correct.  I think the with the number of quality teams lingering between 5 and the hypothetical 15th-ish position in the RR, it's pretty safe to assume that if SJU loses on Saturday, they won't be part of the final secret rankings and C-M won't have that notch in their belt.

Let me see if I have this right.

On Selection Sunday the secret regional rankings are done using the previous week's public regional rankings to count which games are regionally ranked.  Then when the pool C teams get to the table in front of the national committee the number of regionally ranked wins and losses is calculated again based on the secret regional rankings?

[ExTartanPlayer]

That's correct.  I think the with the number of quality teams lingering between 5 and the hypothetical 15th-ish position in the RR, it's pretty safe to assume that if SJU loses on Saturday, they won't be part of the final secret rankings and C-M won't have that notch in their belt.

Let me see if I have this right.

On Selection Sunday the regional rankings are done using the previous week's public regional rankings to count which games are regionally ranked.  Then when the pool C teams get to the table in front of the national committee the number of regionally ranked wins and losses is calculated again based on the secret regional rankings?

We could tell you, but then we'd have to kill you.

[desertcat1]

+k  boys 

[wally_wabash]

That's correct.  I think the with the number of quality teams lingering between 5 and the hypothetical 15th-ish position in the RR, it's pretty safe to assume that if SJU loses on Saturday, they won't be part of the final secret rankings and C-M won't have that notch in their belt.

Let me see if I have this right.

On Selection Sunday the regional rankings are done using the previous week's public regional rankings to count which games are regionally ranked.  Then when the pool C teams get to the table in front of the national committee the number of regionally ranked wins and losses is calculated again based on the secret regional rankings?

Seems that would be the case, but I think maybe that the regional committees are a little more constrained to strictly regional data...so for instance, SJF's win against WJ probably means more to the national committee than it does to the East RAC.  Otherwise, you're right.  I'm not sure how each RAC can ever settle on a list of 10 if they require the other region's list to make decisions.  It's a cycle that never ends.  This is why it's really kind of absurd to toss away the once ranked, always ranked instruction.  That's valuable data (like recognizing that beating SJU is noteworthy) that's going to be ignored. 

[K-Mack]

No. They do a third set of regional rankings, it just never gets released to the public because by the time we all woke up and digested it, there'd be playoff brackets to chirp about. At least that's my theory, it could be more sinister than that.

[wally_wabash]

RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly. 

[K-Mack]

RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.

Was just about to say, weren't they out around this time last week?

[bleedpurple]

RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly. 

I wonder if UW-O and UW-P being ranked ahead of all four of those matter. And add in #8Wash u. Are all RRO created equal? Not sure.

[bleedpurple]

I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.

If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.

Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane.  If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation. 

But that assumes Concordia-Moorhead is still ranked after losing this week, right?  Could be just Wartburg and the possibility of UST.

yes. CM #9

[AO]

Seems that would be the case, but I think maybe that the regional committees are a little more constrained to strictly regional data...so for instance, SJF's win against WJ probably means more to the national committee than it does to the East RAC.  Otherwise, you're right.  I'm not sure how each RAC can ever settle on a list of 10 if they require the other region's list to make decisions.  It's a cycle that never ends.  This is why it's really kind of absurd to toss away the once ranked, always ranked instruction.  That's valuable data (like recognizing that beating SJU is noteworthy) that's going to be ignored.

Why would they be constrained to regional data if they're using the previous week's rankings?  The national committee uses the secret rankings to compare teams from different regions, but I'd still think the East RAC would count the SJF win over WJ.

So, if St. John's is on this week's rankings, we can guarantee that Concordia will get credit for that win and be on the secret regional rankings (helping Bethel/St. Thomas).  Bethel or St. Thomas may not get credit from the national committee for the St. John's game as the Johnnies might not be on the secret rankings.

[AO]

RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.

I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

[bleedpurple]

RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.

My strong guess is this will end up a moot point.  If all goes according to form this weekend, we are likely looking at brackets built around UMU/JC winner, UMHB, UW-W, and Bethel.