Pool C -- 2013

[MonroviaCat]

Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking.   The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago.   Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too.   I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year.   As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.

More specifcally the Pool C rep out in CA, or the SCIAC Pool A winner...one of those two schools is a safe bet to open up in Linfield each playoff.

Past four seasons:
2012: Pacific Lutheran
2011-2009: Cal Lutheran

FWIW--PLU is from Washington.

I'm sure you consider WI and MN the same out here. 

NO way--one has cheese....the other lakes, right?

[02 Warhawk]

Not that it has anything to do with Pool C, but the discussion of Bethel vs Whitewater in the West got me thinking.   The recent NCAA shifting of teams between regions (ala Mount to the east and UWW to the north) has made for a much more balanced bracket over what we saw a decade + ago.   Which I think is a factor in making the semi-finals seem more competitive recently too.   I also like the ability to see new teams in the early rounds instead of the same regional teams year after year.   As a follower of a north region team that is within driving distance to most of D3, I'm glad we're not on an island like CA or TX and continually get screwed in the first round.

More specifcally the Pool C rep out in CA, or the SCIAC Pool A winner...one of those two schools is a safe bet to open up in Linfield each playoff.

Past four seasons:
2012: Pacific Lutheran
2011-2009: Cal Lutheran

FWIW--PLU is from Washington.

I'm sure you consider WI and MN the same out here. 

NO way--one has cheese....the other lakes, right?

right-o 

[retagent]

Mull this over mullers. What if Bethel beats St John's in a tight game (4 or less margin of victory) Does that keep SJU in the RR's? Does that help Bethel with another RR victory? Does SJU get hurt, even though the score was close, and drop out of the RR list?

[d-train]

Mull this over mullers. What if Bethel beats St John's in a tight game (4 or less margin of victory) Does that keep SJU in the RR's? Does that help Bethel with another RR victory? Does SJU get hurt, even though the score was close, and drop out of the RR list?

Redlands has a very strong SOS.. I think they'd slide in over a three-loss SJU. I certainly hope so for PLU's sake.

[MonroviaCat]

Mull this over mullers. What if Bethel beats St John's in a tight game (4 or less margin of victory) Does that keep SJU in the RR's? Does that help Bethel with another RR victory? Does SJU get hurt, even though the score was close, and drop out of the RR list?

Redlands has a very strong SOS.. I think they'd slide in over a three-loss SJU. I certainly hope so for PLU's sake.

While that would help PLU, I think the feeling seems to be that PLU is a pretty safe bet for Pool C.  And it's not like seeding is going to matter as we all know where PLU is going to end up......

[wally_wabash]

Mull this over mullers. What if Bethel beats St John's in a tight game (4 or less margin of victory) Does that keep SJU in the RR's? Does that help Bethel with another RR victory? Does SJU get hurt, even though the score was close, and drop out of the RR list?

No, SJU is out with a loss of any sort.  There are too many quality teams waiting in line outside the West Region club for SJU to stick with three losses. 

Bethel's help comes from being 10-0, 3-0 vs. RROs and they'll get a little nudge on their SOS.  I would guess that the only way Bethel gets up to #1 in the West is if the Platteville/Oshkosh loser falls all the way out (I don't think so) or WashU loses and falls out of the South rankings (maybe). 

[art76]

After the dust settles on Saturday I will be very surprised if there are less than 3 teams between BU and UWW in the SOS rankings, and I'm hoping for more than 6 or 8. Once the "whole body of work" is complete, then the SOS numbers will mean more.

[HScoach]

Only time the West Region rankings will potentially matter is when pairing the regions in the semi-finals.   IMHO, it's a virtual lock that Whitewater and Bethel will both be #1 seeds. 

Where it gets interesting is how the NCAA slots the #1 seeds against each other. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

The MIAA title game (Albion @ Hope) has interesting ramifications for the CCIW.  With a Hope win, nothing changes, but if Albion wins, IWU loses a RRO (falling from 2-1 to 1-1), while Wheaton gains a RRO (one they beat 66-0!) to move from 0-2 to 1-2.  Probably nothing ultimately changes, but IWU might slip from a 4-seed to a 5-seed and go on the road.  I don't think Wheaton's gain would get them in, because (barring major upsets in the region) I think they are blocked from even reaching the table to be discussed.  But an Albion win just might instigate a scenario where 2008 is repeated - 2-loss Wheaton is almost certainly the last team in, then proceeds to make it to the semi's before encountering The Machine.

[USee]

Ypsi,

That's just not going to happen. No way Wheaton gets in over a 2 loss St Thomas (I can't believe I even thought about that long enough to type it).

Some perspective on Albion's loss to Wheaton, Albion played without their starting QB, who was hurt the week before at the end of the game (concussion). Their backup was atrocious and they never threatened to score.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ypsi,

That's just not going to happen. No way Wheaton gets in over a 2 loss St Thomas (I can't believe I even thought about that long enough to type it).

Some perspective on Albion's loss to Wheaton, Albion played without their starting QB, who was hurt the week before at the end of the game (concussion). Their backup was atrocious and they never threatened to score.

Actually, I think a 2-loss SJF would be even more potent competition than 2-loss UST.  Just thought I'd toss out that tantalizing (however remote) possibility.  And Hope is gonna beat Albion anyway!   (And I'm reasonably certain Wheaton will never make it to the table: they'll be behind the UMU/JCU loser, plus IWU and Wabash (barring monumental upsets); those three (if Wabash even makes it) plus the UWO/UWP winner and PLU take up all 5 C spots.

[wally_wabash]

With a ranked Albion, Wheaton > St. Thomas but probably not better than SJF/Alfred. And as noted, Wheaton needs big help this weekend to get to the table.

[Mr. Ypsi]

USee, not meaning to get your hopes up, but IF Albion beats Hope, and IF DePauw beats Wabash in the Monon Bell (also NOT a prediction, but Bell games have a history of upsets that no one outside of the locker room (or most fevered fans) would have predicted) Wheaton actually does have a shot slightly better than the proverbial 'snowball in hell'.  (An IWU loss to Elmhurst does not help you due to the h-to-h.)

But since Hope, Wabash, and IWU are all winning (so says my crystal ball ), it is all moot.

[wally_wabash]

So this was fun...I went ahead and made a mock bracket with the 32 teams that I selected on Wednesday.  Here's how I did it.  First, I ranked the teams 1-32 (full disclosure- I didn't scrub every schedule for common opponents so there may be something glaring that I missed and have a team way out of whack but I went through this fairly quickly...I did use the regional rankings as a guide here, so hopefully that takes care of most of that for me).  Grabbed the top four seeds based on the criteria.  They are:
1- Mount Union (not as big of an SOS as Bethel or UWW, but this is where previous tournament performance comes into play)
2- UWW
3- Bethel
4- UMHB

Then I grabbed the next four teams:
North Central, Linfield, Hobart, Johns Hopkins.

Keeping geography in mind, I tried to match these 8 teams up with another team in the bottom 8 of my list.  Then I took the teams ranked 9-16 and 17-24 and paired them off (I'm trying to keep some semblance of competitve balance here).  So I got 16 games.  I paired them in groups of two games (four teams) that helped avoid egregious travel in the second round and this is what I've got. 

Starting in the upper left corner of your mind's bracket:
Albion @ Mount Union
Gallaudet @ Rowan
Franklin @ Wittenberg
St. Norbert @ North Central

Bottom half, left side:
Redlands @ UMHB (sorry for the rematch...only way to do this with one flight)
Maryville @ Millsaps
Framingham State @ Ithaca
W&J @ Hobart

Upper half, right side:
Concordia (Wis) @ UW-Whitewater
Wartburg @ IWU
Wesley @ Lebanon Valley
Salve Regina @ Johns Hopkins

Lower half, right side:
St. Scholastica @ Bethel
Wabash @ UW-Oshkosh
Hampden Sydney @ John Carroll (499 miles! this one might not be ok)
PLU @ Linfield (sorry again)

So yeah, Hampden Sydney/John Carroll might have to go to Oregon, but somebody has to go and you can pretty much pick any game you want to pair up with PLU/Linfield.  There are about a zillion ways to put this together.  Just thought I'd share what I came up going through it quickly. 

[wally_wabash]

Conversely, if you wanted to ultra-regionalize it, you'd probably "ship" UMU east and UWW north and wind up with something that looks like this:

East:
W&J (8) @ Mount Union (1)
Rowan (5) @ Lebanon Valley (4)
Framingham State (7) @ Hobart (2)
Gallaudet (6) @ Ithaca (3)

South:
Redlands (8-ish...sorry) @ UMHB (1)
Maryville (5) @ Millsaps (3)
Salve Regina (7) @ Johns Hopkins (2)
Hampden Sydney (6) @ Wesley (4)

North:
Albion (8) @ UW-Whitewater (1)'
IWU (5) @ Witt (4)
Franklin (7) @ North Central (2)
Wabash (6) @ John Carroll (3)

West:
St. Scholastica (7/8) @ Bethel (1)
St. Norbert (6) @ Wartburg (5)
Concordia (Wis) (7/8) @ UW-Oshkosh (3)
PLU (4) @ Linfield (2)...boo to this

That is in no way a better way to put this thing together.