Pool C -- 2013

[HScoach]

...... I think the first seeds are all but sewn up. MUC, Bethel, UW-W and UMHB.

I agree 100%.   The only question left is how the NCAA seeds the four #1's.   My prediction is as follows:

1.  Whitewater
2.  Mount
3.  Bethel
4.  MHB

I realize Bethel has good numbers and those numbers say they should be higher than #3 overall, but I'm not sure the #2 west region teams is the #2 seed overall.   Plus factoring in that Mount was the #2 overall last year with worse numbers than they have this season.  They have 3 wins over RRO and their SoS is right were it should be playing in a 10 team conference.   

What's interesting this season is that the four #1's are obvious and an argument could be made that 3 of them (UWW, Bethel and Mount) are easily good enough to be slotted at the top spot and MHB isn't far behind.  Some years we struggle to find four really solid top seeds.   Not this season.

[smedindy]

Meanwhile, the wait goes on. Can't wait to see what Wally cooks up, but the SJF SOS really scares me as a Wabash fan even though they have two losses. I don't think Thomas More jumps Wabash, and since UW-O and St. Thomas have on par equal or worse SOS than Wabash then that's not a criteria. If Millsaps isn't a "B" I really can't see them as a "C". I don't think the South will rank them ahead of Thomas More.

Who really knows though.

[MonroviaCat]

...... I think the first seeds are all but sewn up. MUC, Bethel, UW-W and UMHB.

I agree 100%.   The only question left is how the NCAA seeds the four #1's.   My prediction is as follows:

1.  Whitewater
2.  Mount
3.  Bethel
4.  MHB

I realize Bethel has good numbers and those numbers say they should be higher than #3 overall, but I'm not sure the #2 west region teams is the #2 seed overall.   Plus factoring in that Mount was the #2 overall last year with worse numbers than they have this season.  They have 3 wins over RRO and their SoS is right were it should be playing in a 10 team conference.   

What's interesting this season is that the four #1's are obvious and an argument could be made that 3 of them (UWW, Bethel and Mount) are easily good enough to be slotted at the top spot and MHB isn't far behind.  Some years we struggle to find four really solid top seeds.   Not this season.

An argument could be made that the West has 3 teams that are #1 worthy (when comparing them to MHB anyway). 

[middlerelief]

...... I think the first seeds are all but sewn up. MUC, Bethel, UW-W and UMHB.

I agree 100%.   The only question left is how the NCAA seeds the four #1's.   My prediction is as follows:

1.  Whitewater
2.  Mount
3.  Bethel
4.  MHB

I realize Bethel has good numbers and those numbers say they should be higher than #3 overall, but I'm not sure the #2 west region teams is the #2 seed overall.   Plus factoring in that Mount was the #2 overall last year with worse numbers than they have this season.  They have 3 wins over RRO and their SoS is right were it should be playing in a 10 team conference.   

What's interesting this season is that the four #1's are obvious and an argument could be made that 3 of them (UWW, Bethel and Mount) are easily good enough to be slotted at the top spot and MHB isn't far behind.  Some years we struggle to find four really solid top seeds.   Not this season.

Linfield gets a top seed over MHB in my opine.  MHB season was filled with door mats except 1 game I think.

[smedindy]

The waxing of Wesley will help UMHB, though since they're RRd.  And by criteria North Central, Johns Hopkins and Hobart are all right there with Mt. Union and UMHB. I haven't worked out W/L vs. RR teams, and with the 'secret' rankings and the possible removal of the 'once ranked always ranked' codicil we may never know. That plays a HUGE factor when looking at it without regional biases.

Meanwhile, the SOS for the Main "C" teams as of right this second:

PLU - .549 (36th)
John Carroll - .520 (79th)
Wabash - .503 (109th)
Illinois Wesleyan - . 499 (120th)
Thomas More - .488 (147th)
UW - Platteville . 477 (164th)


Millsaps - .523 (73rd)
Texas Lutheran - .421 (226th)
Wash U - .565 (14th)
Rhodes - .538 (51st)

St. John Fisher - .575 (6th)
St. Thomas - .504 (99th)
UW - Oshkosh - .488 (145th)

[Toby Taff]

...... I think the first seeds are all but sewn up. MUC, Bethel, UW-W and UMHB.

I agree 100%.   The only question left is how the NCAA seeds the four #1's.   My prediction is as follows:

1.  Whitewater
2.  Mount
3.  Bethel
4.  MHB

I realize Bethel has good numbers and those numbers say they should be higher than #3 overall, but I'm not sure the #2 west region teams is the #2 seed overall.   Plus factoring in that Mount was the #2 overall last year with worse numbers than they have this season.  They have 3 wins over RRO and their SoS is right were it should be playing in a 10 team conference.   

What's interesting this season is that the four #1's are obvious and an argument could be made that 3 of them (UWW, Bethel and Mount) are easily good enough to be slotted at the top spot and MHB isn't far behind.  Some years we struggle to find four really solid top seeds.   Not this season.

Linfield gets a top seed over MHB in my opine.  MHB season was filled with door mats except 1 game I think.

You say that as if they scheduled doormats. They played their conference schedule, and their non conference schedule was set 2 years ago the year after Kean, Wesley and Trinity were all playoff teams. Redlands was a fill in game because TLU bailed on the conference. not much you can do if they turn out to be doormats at that point.

[smedindy]

Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?

[middlerelief]

Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?

I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful.  Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.

The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB,  they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference.  To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.

[jknezek]

Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?

I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful.  Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.

The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB,  they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference.  To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.

The ASC is usually a very credible conference a few teams deep for at least playoff quality. This year is an exceptionally bad year. I think UMHB has proven their bonafides by averaging 13+ games per year since about 2002. That means Final 8 trips on average, plus 4 13+ game seasons since 2004. The MIAC champ has comparable numbers over the same period, though the runner-up has also gone deep multiple times. The E8 champion seems to average at least one game less over the same time period.

[wesleydad]

Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?

I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful.  Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.

The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB,  they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference.  To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.

Having seen both UMHB and the E8 winner, you are insulting UMHB to mention them in the same sentence.  Ithaca lost to a very average Cortland St team today.  They would get steamrolled by UMHB  If you are unsure of how good UMHB is, just ask Mount from last year or anyone who plays them in the playoffs.  They are a top notch program and will be a tough out for anyone who plays them this year.

[Upstate]

Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?

I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful.  Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.

The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB,  they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference.  To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.

Having seen both UMHB and the E8 winner, you are insulting UMHB to mention them in the same sentence.  Ithaca lost to a very average Cortland St team today.  They would get steamrolled by UMHB  If you are unsure of how good UMHB is, just ask Mount from last year or anyone who plays them in the playoffs.  They are a top notch program and will be a tough out for anyone who plays them this year.

Agree...

I don't think IC, SU or SJF can stay within 24-28 points of UMHB...

Sure they're not MUC but they'd wipe the floor with the vast majority of the D3 teams out there...

[@d3jason]

Someone claimed playoff-bound Redlands a doormat?

I did, I'm sorry if that is disrespectful.  Redlands is headed to the tourney via AQ.

The view I'm trying to communicate is that it is tough to gage a team, in this case MHB,  they don't really have an annual tough conference schedule that challenges you week in and week out. The only tough teams MHB seems to have are an occasional non-conference.  To me, Bethel going undefeated in the MIAC, or an E8 winner is much more indicative of a top program than steamrolling the ASC year in and year out. Linfield gets the top seed over MHB.

I'm pretty sure UMHB would roll the E8 every year too.

[wally_wabash]

Let us project.  The gurus are putting their full bracket out shortly, so I'm going to skip the bracketing and just give you my projections.  Pool A is as follows:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Gallaudet
E8	Itahca
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Wartburg
LL	Hobart
MAC	Lebanon Valley
MIAC	Bethel
MWC	St. Norbert
MIAA	Albion
NACC	Concordia (Wis.)
NCAC	Wittenberg
NEFC	Endicott
NJAC	Rowan
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Hampden-Sydney
PAC	Washington & Jefferson
SCIAC	Redlands
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Maryville
WIAC	UW-Whitewater

I think that speaks for itself. 

Pool B:
This got more interesting than it needed to be today thanks to Millsaps losing.  And a bunch of stuff going down in the East.  My three picks are:

Framingham State (9-1, 0.557 SOS, 1-1 vs. RRO)
Wesley (4-2, 0.673 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
Millsaps (9-1, 0.523, 0-0 vs. RRO)

Framingham doesn't have a regionally ranked win...that we know of.  I had to take a stab at some secret regional rankings and I ranked Endicott, so FSU gets one and that one gets them the first pick.  Then it's all South all the time.  Wesley leapfrogs Millsaps from last week.  Which leaves what to do with Millsaps.  I couldn't move  TLU above Millsaps because Millsaps still has a monster SOS advantage that I can't get over.  So Millsaps is the choice. 

A quick note on WashU as well: I didn't see any results today that would make more move WashU ahead of TLU or Millsaps (despite the common Rhodes result with Millsaps).  Now, Maryville lost which could knock them out and put somebody like Rhodes into the bottom of the South's rankings...that gives WashU a RRO win which for me would put them ahead of TLU but probably still not Millsaps.  And not Thomas More either which affects their Pool C situation. 

Speaking of...let's do the Pool C dance.  Quickly how I ranked the Pool C contenders in each region:
North: John Carroll, IWU, Wabash- Hope getting knocked out of the rankings removes the advantage IWU would have had over the Streaks
South: Thomas More, TLU, WashU
East: SJF, Del Val, Alfred - spent about 2 hours trying to rank the East.  I have no idea.  Honestly. 
West: UW-Platteville, PLU, St. Thomas - I ranked Redlands which gave PLU a RRO win, but Platteville also got a RRO win that is actually better than the Redlands win.  So PLatteville and PLU didn't flip. 
Here we go. 

Round 1:
John Carroll (9-1, .520 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Thomas More (9-1, 0.488, 0-1 vs RRO)
St. John Fisher (8-2, 0.575 SOS, 2-1 vs RRO) - side note: Alfred remains ranked in my "secret" rankings
UW-Platteville (9-1, 0.477 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

JCU is my first pick.  Best SOS amongst the 1-loss teams plus the RRO win and not getting wiped out by Mount Union didn't hurt. 

Round 2:
Illinois Wesleyan (9-1, .499 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Thomas More (9-1, 0.488, 0-1 vs RRO)
St. John Fisher (8-2, 0.575 SOS, 2-1 vs RRO)
UW-Platteville (9-1, 0.477 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

You could go either way here I think with IWU or Platteville.  They're really about even in terms of quality of wins and SOS (slight advantage IWU).  It's not going to matter a whole bunch because both of these teams are going to the tournament. 

Round 3:
Wabash (9-1, .503 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Thomas More (9-1, 0.488, 0-1 vs RRO)
St. John Fisher (8-2, 0.575 SOS, 2-1 vs RRO)
UW-Platteville (9-1, 0.477 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

Platteville was more or less even with the previous selection, so it's pretty natural to pick them here.  One loss, plus the RRO win puts them in here. 

Round 4:
Wabash (9-1, .503 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Thomas More (9-1, 0.488, 0-1 vs RRO)
St. John Fisher (8-2, 0.575 SOS, 2-1 vs RRO)
Pacific Lutheran (8-1, 0.548 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

You could talk yourself into ranking PLU ahead of Platteville.  I thought I had, but then I noticed that they weren't behind Platteville last week and I'm not sure that Platteville going on the road and beating Oshkosh is reason to have an idle PLU jump them.  Again, not much matter here because both teams are in.  PLU did pick up a RRO win by my count because I slipped Redlands in to replace St. Johns. 

Round 5:
Wabash (9-1, .503 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Thomas More (9-1, 0.488, 0-1 vs RRO)
St. John Fisher (8-2, 0.575 SOS, 2-1 vs RRO)
St. Thomas  (8-2, 0.504 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

Playing the win percentage card here.  There are a lot of good reasons to pick Wabash.  There are a lot of good reasons to pick SJF and their big SOS and two RRO wins (provided Alfred doesn't get dumped out by my hunch is that the East RAC won't do that...they hedged against that by ranking Brockport, who Alfred beat earlier, last week). 

So my Cs are:
John Carroll
Illinois Wesleyan
UW-Platteville
Pacific Lutheran
Wabash

And now we wait. 

[MonroviaCat]

By the way---the projections by d3 are on the front page now.

[smedindy]

So they pick Wash U. over Millsaps due to common opponents, and SJF over Wabash due to SOS. Hmmm...