West Regional Rankings

[hazzben]

Our system isn't perfect. But IMO it gets more right than it gets wrong. I'd love a truly national bracket. I'd love the system Pat talked about where a conference claiming it's Pool A bid requires that it champion have at least a .700 win percentage. So if the champ is a weak 6-3 or 6-4 they lose their slot and there's an extra Pool C. I'd add the caveat that if their SOS was in the top, say, 25 they still retain it. Makes room for a team that loses two Non-con games to elite undefeated teams from strong conferences and then loses two in the conference. Protects against teams avoiding tough matchups in the Non-con.

But overall, almost every team has a chance to play its way in. And the current process is much fairer than the old one.

I wouldn't want many more pool C bids without also having a national bracket.  If any team in the MIAC was a pool C lock despite having two conference losses, the regular season would not be nearly as important as you'd just have to beat them again in the 1st or 2nd round.  If you could send St. Thomas/Concordia out to the East and not let conference foes meet until the final four, then I'd be all for it.

That's a fair point and there's something to it. But even barring a national bracket, I'd still favor doing reasonable things to ensure we get the best 32 we can while still keeping a reasonable approach to access. If a MIAC, WIAC or CCIW champ had to play another conference school again rather than some 6-4 patsy, I'd be ok with it. The playoffs are supposed to be tough.

[ExTartanPlayer]

You could always do it the way WI high school football works. Higher seed hosts the first round, lower seed hosts the second, higher seed hosts the third  and then neutral site for the semis.

Wow, so I'm imagining a scenario where one team is a higher seed and has to travel to a team they beat in the regular season for the Rd 2 rematch. Not a fan 

Yep, my high school had to go on the road to a team to a team it beat 47-14 in the regular season! 47-0 into the 4th quarter and the 14 points scored in garbage time against backups. Beat them 31-0 last Friday. But it would be a way to make sure every team played on the road at least one game like some want. I personally don't like that system.

Yeah, and at least that was one where the lower seed wasn't a major threat. What if it's a scenario where the higher seed already played the regular season game on the road and won a close fought contest. I digress...

Our system isn't perfect. But IMO it gets more right than it gets wrong. I'd love a truly national bracket. I'd love the system Pat talked about where a conference claiming it's Pool A bid requires that it champion have at least a .700 win percentage. So if the champ is a weak 6-3 or 6-4 they lose their slot and there's an extra Pool C. I'd add the caveat that if their SOS was in the top, say, 25 they still retain it. Makes room for a team that loses two Non-con games to elite undefeated teams from strong conferences and then loses two in the conference. Protects against teams avoiding tough matchups in the Non-con.

But overall, almost every team has a chance to play its way in. And the current process is much fairer than the old one.

On the first bolded passage: I think this is crucial to keep some SOS caveat there because it will discourage prospective champs in lesser conferences from scheduling tough OOC games.  The ODAC and MIAA are two examples of conferences that tend to produce champions with "meh" overall records but that's partially due to the even nature of play in those conferences and their willingness to schedule decent/tough OOC games.  It would discourage a team like, say, Albion - a contender for this year's MIAA crown - from scheduling that OOC game with Wheaton because there are years when going 4-2 in the MIAA will win the conference, and they wouldn't want to lose a playoff bid because they challenged themselves in OOC play.

On the second bolded part, this is absolutely true and why I ultimately think all the hand-wringing we do about who gets in Pool C and who hosts to be a bit silly (even though I participate as much as anyone).  When the first ball is kicked off, in THEORY, any team can play their way to the title.  We may "know" that only a handful of teams have a realistic chance, but few and far between are the times when a team truly good enough to win the title or reach the semis can claim they didn't have a fair chance when the season started.

[Pat Coleman]

Yeah, that's why I wrote it up as based on regional rankings rather than straight winning percentage. If a team has a lower record but really strong SOS and such, that should be reflected in a regional ranking.

[olddog]

Pat,

UR will travel no doubt, who would you guess they are going to play?

Thanks in advance

OD

[MonroviaCat]

Pat,

UR will travel no doubt, who would you guess they are going to play?

Thanks in advance

OD

Not claiming to be Pat but I'd say there are too many unknowns to really answer this question.  If PLU gets a pool C spot then Redlands could end up just about anywhere other than the West Coast.  It depends on who gets in and how the committee decides to do things (will it be the way they usually do it or will it be more wide open like 2 years ago where teams got sent all over?).    If PLU does not get a spot (which, IMO, should only happen if they lose to Whitworth this week), then Redlands is a slam dunk flight to Oregon.

[olddog]

Cat,

I agree with you on the later UR would head to LF. I will assume PLU is in, so looking at the other 6 teams in the west...it looks like they could make two more regional games. The question really is would UR go to the Midwest to play that odd team out, maybe Whitewater?. My guess Texas is not the next option for out of region, since TLU might get in and play MHB. So I could also see UR in Ill or ?...Pat seams to have a good handle on it.

OD

[Pat Coleman]

If PLU and Texas Lutheran get in the field then Redlands could go anywhere other than the east coast -- Bethel, North Central, Oshkosh, etc.

[hazzben]

Still games to play on the West Coast.

That said, here's where things shifted:

Illinois College lost to Cornell...Ouch! - assume they'll drop out

Concordia lost @ UST, SJU survives Hamline. All 3 are 7-2.
- SJU beat UST, lost to Cobbers & GAC, finish with Bethel
- Cobbers beat SJU, lost to UST & Bethel, finish GAC
- UST beat Cobbers, lost to SJU & Bethel, finish with Olaf (basically a lock to finish 8-2)

How you slot the three is anyone's guess. I think you have to put UST ahead of Concordia given today's result. SJU has the worst loss of the three and still has to play Bethel. Do you go UST, Cobbers, SJU  Not sure how you can put SJU ahead of the Cobbers due to H2H and the loss to GAC. Add to that SJU has the worst SOS by a wide margin, I'd probably guess it goes this way. The better question might be, how many of the three, if any, get ranked?

Pacific has a real shot to get ranked if they can beat Willamette. If they lose, I'd assume Redlands comes into the rankings.

Thoughts on that analysis?

[MonroviaCat]

Still games to play on the West Coast.

That said, here's where things shifted:

Illinois College lost to Cornell...Ouch! - assume they'll drop out

Concordia lost @ UST, SJU survives Hamline. All 3 are 7-2.
- SJU beat UST, lost to Cobbers & GAC, finish with Bethel
- Cobbers beat SJU, lost to UST & Bethel, finish GAC
- UST beat Cobbers, lost to SJU & Bethel, finish with Olaf (basically a lock to finish 8-2)

How you slot the three is anyone's guess. I think you have to put UST ahead of Concordia given today's result. SJU has the worst loss of the three and still has to play Bethel. Do you go UST, Cobbers, SJU  Not sure how you can put SJU ahead of the Cobbers due to H2H and the loss to GAC. Add to that SJU has the worst SOS by a wide margin, I'd probably guess it goes this way. The better question might be, how many of the three, if any, get ranked?

Pacific has a real shot to get ranked if they can beat Willamette. If they lose, I'd assume Redlands comes into the rankings.

Thoughts on that analysis?

Yeah...the top 4 shouldn't change at all but the MIAC mess is hard to untangle.  Especially since St. Thomas was not ranked in the first round.....so you have to bring them in unless you drop all the MIAC (except Bethel) out.....but with IC losing that opens up room for St. Thomas...Wartburg barely won but that will be enough to keep them in I'm guessing....I think Pacific gets in this week if they win.

[speedybigboy]

Still games to play on the West Coast.

That said, here's where things shifted:

Illinois College lost to Cornell...Ouch! - assume they'll drop out

Concordia lost @ UST, SJU survives Hamline. All 3 are 7-2.
- SJU beat UST, lost to Cobbers & GAC, finish with Bethel
- Cobbers beat SJU, lost to UST & Bethel, finish GAC
- UST beat Cobbers, lost to SJU & Bethel, finish with Olaf (basically a lock to finish 8-2)

How you slot the three is anyone's guess. I think you have to put UST ahead of Concordia given today's result. SJU has the worst loss of the three and still has to play Bethel. Do you go UST, Cobbers, SJU  Not sure how you can put SJU ahead of the Cobbers due to H2H and the loss to GAC. Add to that SJU has the worst SOS by a wide margin, I'd probably guess it goes this way. The better question might be, how many of the three, if any, get ranked?

Pacific has a real shot to get ranked if they can beat Willamette. If they lose, I'd assume Redlands comes into the rankings.

Thoughts on that analysis?

Yeah...the top 4 shouldn't change at all but the MIAC mess is hard to untangle.  Especially since St. Thomas was not ranked in the first round.....so you have to bring them in unless you drop all the MIAC (except Bethel) out.....but with IC losing that opens up room for St. Thomas...Wartburg barely won but that will be enough to keep them in I'm guessing....I think Pacific gets in this week if they win.

The top 4 could rearrange if, for example, Concordia drosp out and Pacific gets in

[MonroviaCat]

Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?

[hazzben]

Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?

If Concordia drop out, assuming IC drops out as well, it's hard to imagine UST not getting 1 of the 2 open slots. Then again, Redlands and Pacific (with a win today) would have a case to be made as well.

[speedybigboy]

Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?

Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR.  Remember, once ranked, always ranked.  I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR. 

[MonroviaCat]

Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?

Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR.  Remember, once ranked, always ranked.  I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.

according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked".  So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....

[speedybigboy]

Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?

Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR.  Remember, once ranked, always ranked.  I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.

according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked".  So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....

OK, I missed that.