West Regional Rankings

[MonroviaCat]

Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?

Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR.  Remember, once ranked, always ranked.  I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.

according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked".  So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....

OK, I missed that.

Which also means--you guys want Redlands to get in because even if Pacific got in this week they'd probably drop out after Linfield....actually Willamette is winning now...they could jump in which would help PLU and Linfield.....

[speedybigboy]

Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?

Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR.  Remember, once ranked, always ranked.  I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.

according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked".  So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....

OK, I missed that.

Which also means--you guys want Redlands to get in because even if Pacific got in this week they'd probably drop out after Linfield....actually Willamette is winning now...they could jump in which would help PLU and Linfield.....

Didn't really think Willamette had a shot at getting in but you never know.  Is this weeks rankings released on Wednesday again?

[hazzben]

Didn't really think Willamette had a shot at getting in but you never know.  Is this weeks rankings released on Wednesday again?

Yep, should be Wednesday afternoon.

[MonroviaCat]

Yes but if Concordia drops out, St. Thomas jumps in....probably....and replaces them on Bethel's wins vs. RR teams, no?

Even worse, St Thomas doesn't "replace" them, they "add" to the wins vs. RR.  Remember, once ranked, always ranked.  I'm looking for Redlands or Pacific to get in to improve the PLU wins vs RR.

according to Pat (earlier this week)--it is no longer "once ranked always ranked".  So only the final rankings matter for the wins vs. regionally ranked opponents....

OK, I missed that.

Which also means--you guys want Redlands to get in because even if Pacific got in this week they'd probably drop out after Linfield....actually Willamette is winning now...they could jump in which would help PLU and Linfield.....

Didn't really think Willamette had a shot at getting in but you never know.  Is this weeks rankings released on Wednesday again?

Isn't that the truth?  Willamette has an SOS close to that of Concordia Moorhead but would not have wins against regionally ranked opponents.....  but if St. John's were to drop out of the rankings then neither does Concordia Moorhead.  I think the MIAC situation really mucks up the West's regional rankings.  Depending on what the bottom of the list looks like (i.e. does Redlands get onto the list), I could see PLU moving up as high as 4th on the list.  OshKosh has a much lower SOS and no wins against regionally ranked.  So if Redlands (or Willamette for that matter) made the list, I think PLU jumps ahead of OshKosh.....at least until the final rankings where we'll know the winner of OshKosh-Platteville.

[hazzben]

Isn't that the truth?  Willamette has an SOS close to that of Concordia Moorhead but would not have wins against regionally ranked opponents.....  but if St. John's were to drop out of the rankings then neither does Concordia Moorhead.  I think the MIAC situation really mucks up the West's regional rankings.  Depending on what the bottom of the list looks like (i.e. does Redlands get onto the list), I could see PLU moving up as high as 4th on the list.  OshKosh has a much lower SOS and no wins against regionally ranked.  So if Redlands (or Willamette for that matter) made the list, I think PLU jumps ahead of OshKosh.....at least until the final rankings where we'll know the winner of OshKosh-Platteville.

It's a bit of a mess for sure.

One thing to keep in mind is that they might get rid of the once ranked always ranked criteria, but don't you think it still plays a psychological role? When they look at Redlands schedule, they won't see a signature win. When they look at the Cobbers, even if SJU is dropped out, they'll still point to it and see a team they liked enough last week to rank.

Plus, SJU doesn't technically 'drop out' until the rankings are published (if they even do at all). So this week, the entire time they discuss and debate, isn't SJU still a RRO result? So I think for this week anyway, SJU still counts during at least some of the discussion, even if they end up falling out.

Bottom line, you could make a case for Redlands (Strong SOS, but who have they beat) or any of the MIAC schools (who all have more recent losses, but also all have a quality win) making the RR this week. Pacific and IC losing also makes it possible that Redlands does get ranked and that no MIAC teams drop out...potentially anyway. In that scenario, it would be a benefit for PLU, for a week anyway until the UWO-UWP result gives one of them a boost.

[D O.C.]

Really?
One more week and strange things can happen.
I know I need at least two games at home to make a great Fall out of a good one.

[MonroviaCat]

Isn't that the truth?  Willamette has an SOS close to that of Concordia Moorhead but would not have wins against regionally ranked opponents.....  but if St. John's were to drop out of the rankings then neither does Concordia Moorhead.  I think the MIAC situation really mucks up the West's regional rankings.  Depending on what the bottom of the list looks like (i.e. does Redlands get onto the list), I could see PLU moving up as high as 4th on the list.  OshKosh has a much lower SOS and no wins against regionally ranked.  So if Redlands (or Willamette for that matter) made the list, I think PLU jumps ahead of OshKosh.....at least until the final rankings where we'll know the winner of OshKosh-Platteville.

It's a bit of a mess for sure.

One thing to keep in mind is that they might get rid of the once ranked always ranked criteria, but don't you think it still plays a psychological role? When they look at Redlands schedule, they won't see a signature win. When they look at the Cobbers, even if SJU is dropped out, they'll still point to it and see a team they liked enough last week to rank.

Plus, SJU doesn't technically 'drop out' until the rankings are published (if they even do at all). So this week, the entire time they discuss and debate, isn't SJU still a RRO result? So I think for this week anyway, SJU still counts during at least some of the discussion, even if they end up falling out.

Bottom line, you could make a case for Redlands (Strong SOS, but who have they beat) or any of the MIAC schools (who all have more recent losses, but also all have a quality win) making the RR this week. Pacific and IC losing also makes it possible that Redlands does get ranked and that no MIAC teams drop out...potentially anyway. In that scenario, it would be a benefit for PLU, for a week anyway until the UWO-UWP result gives one of them a boost.

yeah--i guess I don't really see how getting rid of the once ranked always ranked idea will really work out.  I mean....in order to rank the teams you have to decide if they had a win against a regionally ranked opponent.  In the case of the MIAC it's almost impossible to do without using the previous rankings as a basis, right?  And same with the WIAC 1 loss schools.  Neither has that win but you're assuming one will at the end....unless by beating the other team they drop them from the rankings......At any rate, PLU's done playing for now so they can only sit and watch (and practice with the asumption that they will have a game in 2 weeks.....in McMinnville). 

[D O.C.]

You guys keep on parlaying the horses, poker and chess.  My pet monkey and I will sit here and I'll teach her how to push slot buttons until the whole playoff thing works out.

[hazzben]

yeah--i guess I don't really see how getting rid of the once ranked always ranked idea will really work out.  I mean....in order to rank the teams you have to decide if they had a win against a regionally ranked opponent.  In the case of the MIAC it's almost impossible to do without using the previous rankings as a basis, right?  And same with the WIAC 1 loss schools. Neither has that win but you're assuming one will at the end....unless by beating the other team they drop them from the rankings......At any rate, PLU's done playing for now so they can only sit and watch (and practice with the asumption that they will have a game in 2 weeks.....in McMinnville).

That's how I see it. It's no longer once ranked always ranked, more like if ranked, ranked for at least two weeks when considering the team. So a team ranked in the 1st will still be treated that way in the 2nd. But if they drop out of the 2nd, they won't be treated like ranked for the 3rd.

At the end of the day, UWW, Linfield and Bethel are in good position. We've all clinched and are now playing for seeding. I'd rather split these hairs than the Pool C issues. If all 3 win next week, all 3 should be home for at least the first 2 rounds.

[02 Warhawk]

yeah--i guess I don't really see how getting rid of the once ranked always ranked idea will really work out.  I mean....in order to rank the teams you have to decide if they had a win against a regionally ranked opponent.  In the case of the MIAC it's almost impossible to do without using the previous rankings as a basis, right?  And same with the WIAC 1 loss schools. Neither has that win but you're assuming one will at the end....unless by beating the other team they drop them from the rankings......At any rate, PLU's done playing for now so they can only sit and watch (and practice with the asumption that they will have a game in 2 weeks.....in McMinnville).

That's how I see it. It's no longer once ranked always ranked, more like if ranked, ranked for at least two weeks when considering the team. So a team ranked in the 1st will still be treated that way in the 2nd. But if they drop out of the 2nd, they won't be treated like ranked for the 3rd.

At the end of the day, UWW, Linfield and Bethel are in good position. We've all clinched and are now playing for seeding. I'd rather split these hairs than the Pool C issues. If all 3 win next week, all 3 should be home for at least the first 2 rounds.

I'm thinking whoever gets the #1 seed in the West will be absolutely HUGE!!! I assume the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in west will have to play each before playing the #1 team. That's a very tall task...just to get out of the region!!

For that reason, I'm hoping UWW remains as the #1 more so than ever, so they will potentially have to play either Bethel OR Linfield...not both. But we'll see if these three teams even end up in the same region of the playoffs at all.

[hazzben]

I'm thinking whoever gets the #1 seed in the West will be absolutely HUGE!!! I assume the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in west will have to play each before playing the #1 team. That's a very tall task...just to get out of the region!!

For that reason, I'm hoping UWW remains as the #1 more so than ever, so they will potentially have to play either Bethel OR Linfield...not both. But we'll see if these three teams even end up in the same region of the playoffs at all.

If no one is moved out of the region, being #1 in the West will be massive. But I'd be surprised if Bethel or UWW don't get moved. Either Mount or JCU could (should) get moved East. At least I keep telling myself that!

[MonroviaCat]

I'm thinking whoever gets the #1 seed in the West will be absolutely HUGE!!! I assume the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in west will have to play each before playing the #1 team. That's a very tall task...just to get out of the region!!

For that reason, I'm hoping UWW remains as the #1 more so than ever, so they will potentially have to play either Bethel OR Linfield...not both. But we'll see if these three teams even end up in the same region of the playoffs at all.

If no one is moved out of the region, being #1 in the West will be massive. But I'd be surprised if Bethel or UWW don't get moved. Either Mount or JCU could (should) get moved East. At least I keep telling myself that!

agreed--this seems likely based on history.  Otherwise you will end up with a very heavy West and a very heavy North.....

[desertcat1]

  it's not the first 

I'm thinking whoever gets the #1 seed in the West will be absolutely HUGE!!! I assume the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in west will have to play each before playing the #1 team. That's a very tall task...just to get out of the region!!

For that reason, I'm hoping UWW remains as the #1 more so than ever, so they will potentially have to play either Bethel OR Linfield...not both. But we'll see if these three teams even end up in the same region of the playoffs at all.

If no one is moved out of the region, being #1 in the West will be massive. But I'd be surprised if Bethel or UWW don't get moved. Either Mount or JCU could (should) get moved East. At least I keep telling myself that!

agreed--this seems likely based on history.  Otherwise you will end up with a very heavy West and a very heavy North.....

[George Thompson]

West regional playoff prediction:

PLU (4) @ Linfield (1)      Why?   Travel costs
St. Norbert @ UW-Oshkosh (3)    Why?   UW-Oshkosh is my 3rd seed team.

Redlands @ Wartburg    Why?   Either could be home game, but NCAA will hope for a Wartburg win, to minimize 2nd round travel cost.
St. Scholastica @ Bethel (2)    Why?   Bethel is my 2nd seed.

UW-WW goes to the North region.  Six of the above eight have automatic bids, being conference champions.   Two loss teams do not make the West Region playoffs, if not conference champion.

Of course, an unexpected upset next Saturday would change things.

GT

[MonroviaCat]

West regional playoff prediction:

PLU (4) @ Linfield (1)      Why?   Travel costs
St. Norbert @ UW-Oshkosh (3)    Why?   UW-Oshkosh is my 3rd seed team.

Redlands @ Wartburg    Why?   Either could be home game, but NCAA will hope for a Wartburg win, to minimize 2nd round travel cost.
St. Scholastica @ Bethel (2)    Why?   Bethel is my 2nd seed.

UW-WW goes to the North region.  Six of the above eight have automatic bids, being conference champions.   Two loss teams do not make the West Region playoffs, if not conference champion.

Of course, an unexpected upset next Saturday would change things.

GT

Plausible barring any upsets next weekend.  I still don't see Linfield being #1 based on Regional Ranking criteria however.  I also could see Redlands getting sent to a higher *seeded* team to ensure they are one and done (for cost purposes ).  Or at the very least---sticking Redlands on the Linfield side of things so that, in case they won their first game, they'd go to Oregon  (or washington) which would allow everything else to remain concentrated in the midwest.....