NCAA North Region

D3 Scout · November 03, 2014, 04:06:04 PM

A little off topic but I wanted to discuss a call in UWW vs. UWP game Friday. UWW played a through ball that left senior captain John Gottwald racing towards a bouncing ball vs the UWP goal keeper. A late whistle to acknowledge offside left little time for Gottwald to get out of the way from the on coming goalie. Even though the AR raised his flag immediatly this hesitation casued a bang bang play which led to the goal keeper jumping up to grab the ball with a knee raised that ultimately hit Gottwald in face. Now down on the ground with blood everywhere the head ref issued the UWP goalie a red card. It was proper goal keeper form but the play was called intentional and malicious. From the stands this seemed like a bang bang play and a rash red card.

Thoughts on this play?

GarbageGoals33 · November 03, 2014, 05:20:12 PM

Shouldn't be a red card unless the ref thought it was intent to injure.

I assume that UWW wasn't given a PK as a result of the foul and the result of the play was a free-kick for UWP from the spot of the offsides call.

WarhawkFan · November 04, 2014, 12:30:29 PM

I'd usually give the benefit of the doubt to the goalie in that situation, but apparently he's done this before. UW-Superior had a player get a broken cheek after Sibik did the same thing (again after the whistle was blown and the play was dead).

dontshootthegoose · November 04, 2014, 09:34:32 PM

Predictions for tomorrows rankings:

1. Loras
2. Wartburg
3. UWW
4. GAC
5. St. Olaf
6. UWO
7. St. Johns

So not much different, just see GAC jumping Olaf because of the loss. Don't think Whitewater or Oshkosh will move with their ties to one another. I think Scholastica is sitting on the 8th spot with their 20th win of the season coming today.

WarhawkFan · November 05, 2014, 12:43:53 AM

St. Scholastica has the same problem as Luther though, too poor of an SOS. Their only chance for an NCAA spot is to win their conference tournament.

casualfan · November 05, 2014, 10:03:27 AM

Quote from: WarhawkFan on November 05, 2014, 12:43:53 AM
St. Scholastica has the same problem as Luther though, too poor of an SOS. Their only chance for an NCAA spot is to win their conference tournament.

....which they could probably do with 9 on the field.

1. Loras
2. Wartburg
3. Luther
4. UWW
5. GAC
6. St. Olaf
7. UWO

Just have a funny feeling the Norse will be back in this week..

gustiefan04 · November 05, 2014, 10:11:13 AM

If (and its a big IF) Luther cracks back into the ranking, it will bein the 6th or 7th position. SOS is so heavily weighted by the committee, there is no way they get ranked 3rd. Especially considering their SOS has dropped further with their match against Central.

I think Dontshootthegoose is spot on.

1. Loras
2. Wartburg
3. UWW
4. GAC
5. St. Olaf
6. UWO
7. St. Johns

dontshootthegoose · November 05, 2014, 11:21:59 AM

Another big IF is if UWW jumps Wartburg for the number two spot. Now I don't think they will, but Wartburg had an off week where UWW played 3 games. UWW will be 12-3-4 vs. Wartburg's 10-3-4, I should also mention that UWW will have a higher SOS than Wartburg.

gustiefan04 · November 05, 2014, 02:05:50 PM

Rankings posted...

1. Loras
2. Wartburg
3. UWW
4. St. Olaf
5. GAC
6. CarlEton
7. UWO

dontshootthegoose · November 05, 2014, 02:12:50 PM

Seems about right, only thing that I could of seen different is GAC and St. Olaf flip flopped. Oshkosh with the slide to 7 is interesting, as well as Luther remaining out. Safe to say Luther's only way to the NCAA's is of winning the conference tournament.

casualfan · November 05, 2014, 02:23:36 PM

Thoughts on the final rankings.

Loras & Wartburg are in no matter what. Hopefully they meet in the final to keep the rest of the ranked teams in play for Pool C.

UWW probably has about a 75-80% chance of taking the Pool B. Only shot against them would be a loss to UWO in the WIAC tourney final.

St. Olaf/GAC/Carleton is very interesting. Hopefully St. Johns doesn't throw a wrinkle in and win the AQ. 2 out of these 3 should make it.

UWO's only hope is that they beat UWP and UWW beats UWS setting up a UWO-UWW final. Then, UWO would need to beat UWW. A record of 14-5-2 for UWO & 13-4-4 for UWW would be hard to choose between.

Final thoughts... If Luther beats Wartburg and Loras beats UD, Luther would then play Loras in the IIAC tourney final. Luther's SOS would surely go up by playing Wartburg & Loras in the final two matches. Even with a loss to Loras, a record of 16-3 with their SOS over 0.500 would therefore put them in place to get a Pool C bid.

gustiefan04 · November 05, 2014, 02:33:59 PM

Quote from: casualfan on November 05, 2014, 02:23:36 PM

Final thoughts... If Luther beats Wartburg and Loras beats UD, Luther would then play Loras in the IIAC tourney final. Luther's SOS would surely go up by playing Wartburg & Loras in the final two matches. Even with a loss to Loras, a record of 16-3 with their SOS over 0.500 would therefore put them in place to get a Pool C bid.

Are we certain this scenario gives Luther an SOS over .500? Their SOS would definately go up, but would it go up enough?

I think Loras, Wartburg are locks. UWW is a lock for Pool B, even with a lose to UWO, I don't think UWO has the Results vs. Ranked Opponents to bump UWW.

Looking like the MIAC can get two teams in, especially if its Olaf and GAC in the MIAC final...

Then we have MWC Champ and UMAC champ thrown in the mix in the North Region with AQ's as well.

dontshootthegoose · November 05, 2014, 02:37:19 PM

So let's play something out with the WIAC then:

UWW beats Superior and loses to Oshkosh- Oshkosh has a chance of making the tourney
UWW beats Superior and beats Oshkosh- UWW is in
But what happens if UWW loses or draws against Superior.... Oshkosh wins conference but then they don't receive a win against a ranked opponent... What occurs then?

Flying Weasel · November 05, 2014, 02:48:38 PM

Quote from: gustiefan04 on November 05, 2014, 02:33:59 PM
Quote from: casualfan on November 05, 2014, 02:23:36 PM

Final thoughts... If Luther beats Wartburg and Loras beats UD, Luther would then play Loras in the IIAC tourney final. Luther's SOS would surely go up by playing Wartburg & Loras in the final two matches. Even with a loss to Loras, a record of 16-3 with their SOS over 0.500 would therefore put them in place to get a Pool C bid.

Are we certain this scenario gives Luther an SOS over .500? Their SOS would definately go up, but would it go up enough?

Just looking at it very roughly, I believe it does. Loras and Wartburg combined are a bit further above .500 than Dubuque and Central combined are below .500, so that should bring Luther's SOS which was at .493 before last week above .500. So if that scenario does play out (Luther beating Wartburg, then losing to Loras) and Luther is given an at-large berth, for me that would be further evidence that indeed a .500 SOS threshold is being used by the committee.

dontshootthegoose · November 05, 2014, 02:50:09 PM

Sorry Gustiefan04, didn't see you post that..

But I am in complete agreement with everything you said. The MIAC is the only grey area with so many teams competing, but I see GAC and Olaf coming out.

Here are the Tournament locks: Loras, Wartburg, Scholastica (considering they win their AQ), MWC champ (Knox, Norberts, Lake forest, Carroll). And then MIAC team. (Olaf, GAC, Carleton, St Johns)- Depending on tournament, I'm predicting Olaf or GAC.

Most Likely: These will overlap, the loser of the MIAC (either Olaf or GAC). UWW for the pool B.

Need help: Carleton, St. Johns, Luther, and UWO.

So that is four AQ's, 2 pool C's, and the pool B