NCAA North Region

[D3 Scout]

A point to note coming up to this big UWW vs. UWO game Sunday.

Whitewater plays Tuesday and Friday while Oshkosh has the whole week off

[dontshootthegoose]

The game between Oshkosh and Whitewater have serious implications for the rest of the region. Whitewater may either be on a roll or exhausted and still should not overlook a spirited Platteville team. And Oshkosh could either be well rested or rusty.

[D3 Scout]

I guess the NSCAA voters do not take a look at the NCAA regional rankings.

1. Loras
2. Luther
3. Wartburg
4. St. Olaf
5. GAC
6. Scholastica
7. UW Oshkosh
8. UW Whitewater
9. Macalester
10. Saint Johns

[dontshootthegoose]

I want some of what the NSCAA voters are smoking

[lastguyoffthebench]

NCAA

North         
1. Loras  13-2-1  13-2-1     
2. Wartburg  10-3-4  10-3-4     
3. Wisconsin-Whitewater  10-3-3  10-3-3     
4. St. Olaf  11-3-2  11-3-2     
5. Gustavus Adolphus  11-4-1  11-4-1     
6. Wisconsin-Oshkosh  12-5-1  12-5-1     
7. Saint John's (Minnesota)  9-6-0  9-6-0

[Durantula]

geeze is that a mistake that Luther dropped all the way out???   They didn't even lose since the last rankings!!

[GarbageGoals33]

How does the Luther SOS look?

That would be the only thing I could think that would drop them out.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Luther .493

http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankingsRedirect&sportCode=MSO&region=10&division=3

[Durantula]

it dropped under .500 so that must be the kicker

[Flying Weasel]

I did not know they had gone back to using that as a cut-off.  But that would seem the only explanation.  Such a litmus test or criteria is not stipulated in the Division III Soccer Pre-Championship Manual, so I do not know under what authority they are permitted to do that.

[Puerco Espin]

Take a look at who Luther has played in the last 7 days ...

10/22 ... Saint Mary's ... W 1-0 ... SMU Record 5-10-1 ... SOS - .344
10/25 ... Central ... W 3-0 ... CEN Record 4-11-0 ... CEN SOS - .267
10/28 ... Univ. of Dubuque ... W 4-3 (2OT) ... UD Record 6-7-3 ... UD SOS - .469

Luther can't control having to play Central or UD, but scheduling a weak Saint Mary's side hurts them big time in this case.

Those three games are the reason why they went from No. 2 (which they really shouldn't have been in the first place) to out of the region rankings.

In order for Luther to make the NCAA's at this point, they'll need to either win the IIAC Tournament or hope for a good showing in the conference tournament championship.

Their first round tournament game is against Central, which will again bump their SOS down.

Not looking good for the Norse.

(Updated to include records)

[GarbageGoals33]

The opponents record is key, not their SOS.

[Flying Weasel]

The opponents record is key, not their SOS.

Well, yes and no. 

The SOS formula that the NCAA uses includes the OWP of the team of interest (2/3 of SOS) and the OWP of all their opponents (1/3 of SOS). 

So, no, it's not their opponents' SOS that matters, but it is more than just their winning pct., it is also their OWP (which is 2/3's of their SOS).

So there is a diffefrence between playing a 10-4-2 team whose OWP is .570 and a 10-4-2 team whose OWP is .430.  Listing an opponent's SOS versus simply their winning pct. helps capture this somewhat.  The best would be to list an opponent's OWP, but that is not provided in the regional data sheets that the NCAA releases while the SOS's are listed.

[D3 Scout]

The fact that SOS weighs such a big part in the process is encouraging. I do feel as though Luther is still a tournament team. They will have to beat Wartburg in the conference tournament to make the tournament in my opinion. Doing that will ensure a second game against Loras which will put their SOS back above the .500 cliff.

As for the other teams.

1. Loras (Have clinched another tournament berth in my mind)
2. Wartburg (A loss in the semi finals will put this team on the hot seat)
3. UW Whitewater (Is Sunday a win or go home for the Warhawks? I do not see the NCAA giving a pool B team an at large)
4. St. Olaf (A tournament final berth should ensure them in the big dance)
5. GAC (Could the MIAC only get one team this year? They are a hot seat team for sure if they dont win the MIAC)
6. UW Oshkosh (What if they tie on Sunday and then win the tournament. Is that enough? I think so)
7. St. Johns (1-4 against the ranked opponents, this team needs the AQ

[GarbageGoals33]

Thanks for the clarification FW!