NCAA North Region

[casualfan]

Luther's SOS is currently 0.488 according to the data sheet. Two games against teams with winning percentage of (0.722) & (0.853) combined with their SOS's that are (0.537) & (0.575) should push Luther's SOS above 0.488. Probably in the 0.505-0.510 range.

If UWW loses or draws tonight, it may not give UWO a chance to get the win over a ranked opponent that they need.

[WarhawkFan]

While I would love to think that UWW is safe no matter the results of the WIAC tournament, we have to remember that we're dealing with a subjective committee. 

A tie/loss in PKs vs Superior should be good enough to get UWW in, but a win vs UWS and loss to UWO or a loss to UWS with UWO beating UWS would put UWW's fate in the hands of a committee that nobody can truly predict (just take a look at the confusion over the rankings in the National Perspective board). 

UWW needs to get a win versus UWS and then a tie or win against UWO in order to take the decision out of the hands of the committee and be assured a spot in the NCAA tournament.

[D3 Scout]

Predictions for this weekend:

Wartburg wins 2-1 over Loras
UWW wins 2-1 in OT against UWO
GAC wins 3-1 against St. Johns

If this holds true. Loras will get a Pool C and UWW will get the Pool B. Still do not see how the NCAA could choose UWO over UWW if they beat UWW at home.

[casualfan]

IIAC: Loras over Wartburg on penalties 4-3 after a 1-1 draw.
WIAC: UWO over UWW on penalties 3-2 after a 0-0 draw.
MIAC: GAC over SJU 1-0.
UMAC: St. Scholastica over UM-Morris 4-0
MWC: Lake Forest over Knox 2-1

Low-scoring weekend.

[GarbageGoals33]

IIAC: Loras 2 - Wartburg 0
WIAC: UWW 1 - UWO 0
MIAC: GAC 2 - SJU 1
UMAC: CSS 3 - UMM 0
MWC: CC 2 - Knox 0

[Cheesehead Henry]

IIAC: Loras 1 - Wartburg 2
WIAC: UWO 1 - UWW 0
MIAC: GAC 1 - SJU 1 (SJU in kicks)
UMAC: CSS 3 - UMM 1
MWC: LF 1 - Knox 0

[Sir Victor]

Two huge Conference Finals tomorrow in the IIAC and MIAC.

St. Johns @ Gustavus. Interesting to see the Johnnies make to final 2 years in a row after a very up and down year. They are on a 7 game win streak currently, red hot. The experienced Gusties and Zach Brown will be too much to handle for St. Johns.
Gustavus 3, St. Johns 0.

Wartburg @ Loras. Interesting year for Wartburg. Quality wins against Gustavus, St. Johns, St. Olaf, Luther (Twice) but some bad results against a few sub .500 teams. Loras got the best of Wartburg in the regular season but I don't see that happening again.
Wartburg 2, Loras 1.

[GarbageGoals33]

On a roll tonight Sir Victor, where were you all season?

I don't see GAC beating SJU 3-0 and I am about as homer as it gets. SJU is playing well and GAC is just starting to regain their form.  I think it will be a one goal Gustie victory.  I'd love to see Brown find the back of the net a couple times tomorrow. The big thing for the gusties tomorrow is putting forth a strong defensive effort, a shutout would be ideal.

The Wartburg - Loras game will be a good one. I'm thinking Loras is too much for Wartburg again.

[Sir Victor]

In hiding. Regular season doesn't excite me.

[casualfan]

Interesting result tonight in Oshkosh with the Titans defeating UWW 1-0 at home. It makes for a close call between the two for the Pool B bid while the other remains on the bubble. It would be great to see both get in. I think UWW has proven that they can play with most of the region's better teams but seem to struggle against Oshkosh. UWW looked like a different team on turf as a few players did not play up to par tonight. Oshkosh looked okay and took advantage of their chance. Their backline looked solid with the return of Cheaney, he may be their best player.

[WarhawkFan]

The good news for UWW (if they get snubbed for the Pool B bid) is that the MIAC tournament went about as perfect as it could for them.  With GAC getting the AQ and the other two teams (that were already ranked below UWW in the region) losing in the semis, I can't see any MIAC team getting a Pool C bid over them.

Still think they should get the Pool B bid, but even if they don't a Pool C still looks like a legitimate option for the Warhawks.

[gustiefan04]

Here's what we know so far in the North Region:

IIAC: Wartburg
MIAC: Gustavus
UMAC: St Scholastica
MWC: Carroll
Pool B: UWW (maybe UWO, but unlikely)
Pool C: Loras

Based on the fact that no team has made the tournament in the last 3 years if they don't appear in the 3rd NCAA rankings (thanks FW for the stat!), this leaves only St Olaf, Carleton and UWO, In ranked order, as other possibly Pool C choices.

What are everyone's thoughts, can the North snag one more pool C bid? If so, it looks like a toss up between the Oles and UWO. They have identical records of 1-3-1 against regionally ranked opponents and very compatible SOS- Olaf at .550 and UWO at .560 in last weeks rankings. Olaf has been ranked higher than UWO in all 3 NCAA Rankings.

It will be very interesting to see how these 2 teams stack up nationally with the other pool c candidates.

[dontshootthegoose]

I see the only way UWO gets in is with the pool B. St. Olaf will have trouble with a pool C but it could happen. If UWO snags the pool B, then I see UWW grabbing a pool C.

[futbol17]

Too many upsets going on right now. Especially if the Trinity score holds. I think Loras is the only pool B out of the north.  If there happens to be two I think it'd be the Wisconsin school that misses on TE pool C. Just do not see it happening though

[dontshootthegoose]

You mean Loras is only pool C bid, and the pool B goes to either UWW or UWO. Which I assume UWW.