Playoffs 2013

[MasterJedi]

I know I'm probably being way too impatient but do we have an ETA on the playoff capsules yet?

[Andy Archibald]

I know I'm probably being way too impatient but do we have an ETA on the playoff capsules yet?

My favorite reads come playoff time!

[MasterJedi]

I know I'm probably being way too impatient but do we have an ETA on the playoff capsules yet?

My favorite reads come playoff time!

They're my favorite too, that's why I'm impatient. Don't kill me Pat! 

[d-train]

I think they said Wednesday in the Podcast.

[Pat Coleman]

Wednesday is the earliest we can produce them. Ton of work goes into these, compounded by the fact that I was out of the country on business last week and couldn't get started on any of them. Ryan Tipps, Dave McHugh and Keith McMillan did a great job keeping the site moving in my absence.

[HScoach]

On our podcast Frank rattled off his guesses on seedings as follows:

1. UMU
2. UMHB
3. Bethel
4. UWW
5. Linfield
6. NCC
7. Hobart
8. JHU

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/ith/2013/11/18/in-the-huddlle--liberty-league-football-talk-show

Appears to be:

1. UMU
2. UWW
3. UMHB
4. Bethel

Mary Hardin-Baylor is in the exact same spot that Mount was in last year and Mount was the number 2 overall seed. So if they went by how they did it last year it's

1. UMU
2. UMHB
3. UWW
4. BETHEL

When reading a normal playoff bracket the 1 overall is USUALLY placed top right and the 2 overall is bottom left. This would indicate UMHB is 2.

When looking at the 2011 and 2012 brackets the 1 and 2 have been placed at these spots.

However, we all know the NCAAs brackets tend to be a little odd at times. Either way im excited to see how everything plays out.

I agree. My strong guess is:

UMU
UMHB
UWW
Bethel

I absolutely love the fact that we have a D3 playoff with AQ's and at-large bids, but what a joke that we have to "guess" what the seedings are.   Is it really that hard for the NCAA to publish them too?

[middlerelief]

I absolutely love the fact that we have a D3 playoff with AQ's and at-large bids, but what a joke that we have to "guess" what the seedings are.   Is it really that hard for the NCAA to publish them too?

I agree with coach.  In terms of who the top seeds are: MUC as undefeated defending champ should be obvious, body of 2013 work is Bethel, followed by UWW.  I personally do not agree with MHB, but they do share the bracket with an undefeated conference champion who advanced in the playoffs last year . . . so, i'll say it is Hobart even though it is clearly MHB. 

Regardless, I fully expect the winner of the JCU/SJF match-up to take the bracket anyway!!!!!!!!

[Toby Taff]

I absolutely love the fact that we have a D3 playoff with AQ's and at-large bids, but what a joke that we have to "guess" what the seedings are.   Is it really that hard for the NCAA to publish them too?

I agree with coach.  In terms of who the top seeds are: MUC as undefeated defending champ should be obvious, body of 2013 work is Bethel, followed by UWW.  I personally do not agree with MHB, but they do share the bracket with an undefeated conference champion who advanced in the playoffs last year . . . so, i'll say it is Hobart even though it is clearly MHB. 

Regardless, I fully expect the winner of the JCU/SJF match-up to take the bracket anyway!!!!!!!!

you can say Hobart if you want, but the road to the Semi's goes through Belton...Again. Out of curiosity, have you ever seen UMHB play?

[HScoach]

Also need to remember that the NCAA criteria allows for taking into account last season results when seeding between like regarded teams.   This is the "whitewater rule" from the year they got jobbed into playing at NCC.  This is likely what ranked Mount and MHB as the top 2 seeds.   Especially over UWW that didn't qualify last season.

[Upstate]

Regardless, I fully expect the winner of the JCU/SJF match-up to take the bracket anyway!!!!!!!!

[George Thompson]

"When a former WIAC head coach became the chair of the Division III football committee, it's understandable why strength of schedule was more important this year."
What the committee chair said.   Posted by Pat Coleman in Around the Nation, General, NCAA

Revealing comment!   When there are only 2 conferences west of Iowa, it is no wonder that the West Region seedings are so biased.   LInfield always schedules tough non-conference games.   It is not our fault that the Wildcats' 3 non-conference teams stubbed their toes in unusual fashion this year.   Apparently losing one regular season game in five years does not count at all for Linfield.

Linfield got robbed!   Not as bad as two years ago, but still no favors!

GT

[Frank Rossi]

I agree. My strong guess is:

UMU
UMHB
UWW
Bethel

Then your assumption is that Linfield was #6 and North Central was #5?  That's where I have trouble with this.  Also, Bethel's SOS jumped to 0.574, while UWW saw its SOS drop to 0.537.  They both had similar records vs. RROs.  Even if UWW went 3-0 while Bethel went 2-0 vs. RROs, that would've forced a criteria tie, meaning results in 2012 playoffs would've become the tiebreaker.  Bethel went 1-1, while UWW went 0-0.  Bethel should've been ahead of UWW when all of this is considered.  In addition, the SOSs of Linfield and North Central were in an order that would suggest Linfield should've been ahead of North Central.  My guess is that it was 1) UMU, 2) MHB, 3) BTH, 4) UWW, 5) LIN, 6) NCC, 7) HOB, 8) JHU, but the desire to keep UMU and UWW at opposite ends of the brackets made them swap the 3/6 pairing with the 4/5 (these numbers being the placement of the Top 8 teams they assigned to those teams).

[ExTartanPlayer]

Linfield always schedules tough non-conference games.   It is not our fault that the Wildcats' 3 non-conference teams stubbed their toes in unusual fashion this year.   Apparently losing one regular season game in five years does not count at all....

1) the "last five years" comment is kind of irrelevant.  This stuff has to be decided based on this season with a POSSIBLE nod to last season if breaking ties between undefeated teams (and the people who complain about Mount Union getting to host when they're defending national champs & undefeated are just out of touch with reality; on one hand they want "common sense over criteria" when selecting Pool C teams, but apparently not when giving the #1 overall seed to an undefeated returning national champion).

2) no, it is not Linfield's "fault" that their OOC opponents were not up to their usual standard, but not is that the committee's job to say "well, Hardin-Simmons USED to be pretty good, so we'll pretend that counts as a win against a regionally ranked opponent and boost their SOS a little bit."  What sense does that make? Trying to schedule well is admirable, but if the team doesn't end up actually being good then that's just a tough break.

3) in general I find it very unbecoming when fans of top-5 programs complain about whether they're a 1 or 2 seed. The NCAA is paying for your travel. Play to win the game, as Herm Edwards would say. In a previous exchange (non playoff related) a different Linfield fan made a snarky comment about one of D3's struggling programs and how their radio announcers did not sound extremely confident while Linfield's mantra was EXPECT TO WIN. Well, ya can't have it both ways. If you have this wonderful EXPECT TO WIN attitude then drop the whining about getting screwed in the seedings and maybe needing to go on the road in the quarterfinals.

[art76]

Well, ya can't have it both ways. If you have this wonderful EXPECT TO WIN attitude then drop the whining about getting screwed in the seedings and maybe needing to go on the road in the quarterfinals.

Well said.

[art76]

I originally posted this on the MIAC board and thought I'd share it here as well.

Sharing a little exercise I've done the last couple of years, but never posted here on this board (that I can recollect).

I took the playoff bracket and simply put the final top 25 ranking from D3 football next to each team. For teams not in the top 25 but still receiving votes, I simply continued counting down until there were no more teams with votes. Finally, if a team received no votes they got the highest number, which this year is a 39. There are 6 39 teams this year, 3 on each side of the bracket. Here are the results:

184 UWW
180 BU
178 UMHB
155 UMU

These numbers say that the "toughest" bracket is Mount Union's - but don't be fooled by the total numbers. If we take just the top two teams in each bracket we come up with these numbers:

11 UMU
11 UMHB
10 BU
7 UWW

Finally, taking the top 4 teams in each bracket we get these numbers:

45 UMHB
40 UWW
38 UMU - two of these teams play in the first round, effectively making it a three horse race in the second round.
31 BU

Being a BU fan is not the reason for my saying the following, but it seems pretty obvious that the BU bracket looks the toughest to get through, regardless of what team you are rooting for in the finals.

Go Royals!