WBB: Little East

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Week 3 Regional Rankings are out: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/16/ncaa-2011-regional-rankings-week-3/

[7express]

Sat schedule:
RIC 67 @ Plymouth state 42.  Don't think RIC should have much trouble with them.
Southern Maine 52 @ Eastern Conn 56.  Southern Maine can get a share of the title with West Conn should West Conn lose to Boston.  Both are locked where they are, Southern Maine will probably play the starters more then Eastern will because So Maine will get the bye to the semi's so their next game won't be until Friday the 25th; Eastern will play the opening round on Tuesday.
Keene state 57 @ UMass-Dartmouth 49.  Assuming Boston doesn't beat West Conn, the "winner" of this game is in Western's half of the bracket; the "loser" will actually turn out to be the winner as they'll end up on the opposite half.  Don't think either will make it past the opening round however, and I think Dartmouth gets crushed no matter who they play.  Keene's played Eastern tough twice (lost by 8 both times), while they've lost by double figures twice to RIC (12 in Providence, 13 in Keene), so they may want to lose actually.
West Conn 65 @ UMass-Boston 45.  Boston needs to win to get into the LEC playoffs.  If they do, they'll be the 6 seed, and the Dartmouth/Keene winner will be the 5 seed with the loser eliminated.  Wouldn't expect to see Karli Spera, Heather Lee, or Melissa Teel much this game, but West Conn has proved all year their the best in the conference, and even the reserves could probably win this game by double figures.

[7express]

Sat results:
West Conn 63-48 over UMass-Boston.  Don't be fooled by the final score, we could've won by a lot more if we wanted.  All 12 that were in uniform played, and 10 of the 12 logged double digit minutes to give a break to the starters that have done so much for us this year.  Heather Lee & Karli Spera were gone by the 12 minute mark.
RIC was an 81-51 winner over Plymouth state.  Take into account the men's 30 point win later in the day, RIC won 2 games by 60 points total, good day for them.
Dartmouth in overtime over Keene 57-53.  With Boston's loss to West Conn, both were assured of making the tournament.  Glad Dartmouth won though, because they tied Keene state in the standings and won the tiebreaker so instead of getting 2 blowouts in the first round (Dartmouth @ Eastern, Keene @ RIC it would've been if Keene won), we might get a competitive Keene state Eastern game.  Both games were decided by 8 points this year.
Eastern in overtime over Southern Maine 60-53.  Didn't mean much as a Western win earlier clinched the regular season title, and Southern Maine won the tiebreaker over Eastern anyways, but this was close throughout I head.  USM hit a buzzer beating 3 to force OT.

That leaves the LEC tournament as follows:
#1 West Conn and #2 Southern Maine get bye's to the semi's which start on Friday night in Danbury.
#6 Keene state travels to #3 Eastern Connecticut and #5 Dartmouth plays @ #4 RIC to open the LEC tournament on Tuesday.

[7express]

My Tuesday predictions:

#5 Mass-Dartmouth 48 @ #4 Rhode Island College 72.  Blowout city here, really don't know how Dartmouth beat Boston twice this year, Boston played us a lot better then Dartmouth did.  I'll be rooting for Dartmouth to pull the monumental upset as RIC gave us some problems, and we had our way with Dartmouth.
#6 Keene state 56 @ #3 Eastern Connecticut 67.  In the playoffs, everyone starts back at 0-0 which is good for the Owls.  After winning the ECAC New England tournament last season, the Owls were fortunate Plymouth state was abysmal this year as Keene backed into the LEC tournament with a dissapointing 4-10 conference record.  Even though they lost to Eastern twice, they lost by 8 both teams, so Eastern sounds like a good matchup.  Keene probably won't win, but it will probably be close.

[7express]

RIC 63-52 win over Dartmouth.  That what makes tournament basketball so good.  I had RIC winning this by 30+, didn't think Dartmouth had a chance.  Of the 4 games on the slate today (2 men & 2 women), this game and the Keene/Eastern game were the largest margin's of defeat, and the Keene game went to overtime
Eastern lucky to still be playing with a 64-53 win in OT over Keene state.  This game shouldn't have even gone to overtime as Eastern scored the last 3 times they touched the ball at the end of regulation, and preceded to not miss in the overtime period (5-5 fg's, 6-6 free throws).  Also, on top of the defensive lapse the final 70 seconds for the Owls, they had 3 "unforced" turnovers I like to call them: One was throwing the ball away in the first half on a rebound when the point guard was running up court, not turned around to see where the ball was, Sarah Laudano fumbling the ball out of bounds late in regulation, and on an inbounds, the inbounder stepping over the line and giving the ball back to Eastern.  That was especially troublesome as they were inbounding underneath the Eastern basket, and Eastern was the other end of the court setting their defense, so there was no pressure to deal with.  If Keene held onto those 3 possessions, I don't think Eastern has enough time to force OT anyways, but even if they scored 1 single point on any of those 3 possessions, or played any semblence of defense the final 75 seconds, they'd be playing in Danbury on Friday night.  They made costly turnovers, bad defense and because of that the season is over.  At least East Conn USM semi should be good, the last few years they've played each other the games have been usually been close, so expecting more of the same on Friday.

That sets the semi's as RIC @ Western Friday at 6:00, and Southern Maine vs. Eastern at 8:00.  I'll post predictions Wednesday or Thursday.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Final Regional Rankings before Selection Sunday: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/category/ncaa-stuff/regional-rankings/

[7express]

West Conn 6th, East Conn 7th, Southern Maine 10th.

West Conn is probably in even if they lose to RIC on Friday, but a win would solidify a bid should they lose Saturday.  USM/East Conn is an elimination game, loser is definatly out of the picture (especially if its Southern Maine), winner might get a Pool C depending what happens elsewhere.  Eastern is in better shape for a Pool C then USM is.  Should be a great Friday night of games in Danbury.

[7express]

Friday semifinals from the Feldman Arena at the O'Neil center on the campus of Western Connecticut state:

Rhode Island College @ Western Connecticut state 6:00
Western won the first meeting back in January in Providence by 5 I think it was in a game that was close throughout.  West Conn beat them by double digits at home a few weeks ago.  I'll take West Conn by 10 or so, a win that solidify's a NCAA birth should they lose on Saturday.  Western 68-55
Eastern Connecticut vs. Southern Maine 8:00
The 2 most consistant women's teams in the conference as the Warriors are making their 12th straight semifinal appearance, and USM has never missed the semifinals since the conference formed.  USM loses here, their done from tournament discussion, but might even have to win to get in, Eastern has to win to stay in the hunt for a Pool C bid.  There have been some good games played between the teams recently including last Saturday's meeting that went to overtime.  Whichever senior can make more plays (Kylie DeMillo for USM, Jessica Moriarty for Eastern) thats the team that will win the game.  Think Kylie has a better supporting cast around her as Eastern can struggle to put the ball in the basket consistantly, at least in the few games I saw them play this year.  They played last year in the semifinals and USM was a 50-43 winner IIRC.  It will be around the same score, but the same result as a year ago, USM vs. Western Connecticut for the right to go dancing.  This should be a great game to watch.  USM 54-49.

[7express]

Semifinal wrapup:
Western 77-68 over RIC.  Close game throughout which is what semifinals should be as long as your team wins of course.  Largest lead for West Conn in the second half before 1:15 when RIC started fouling was 8 points.  Teel had a great game once again, and we really shot the 3 well in the second half after not shooting it well in the first. 
Eastern was a 80-64 winner over USM.  Thought the final margin was closer then it was.  Even though the margin said it was 16 points, it was a lot closer then that as ECSU free throws at the end made the score appear worse then it did.  Game changed the final 10 seconds of the first half.  With the shot clock off and a 4 point lead, USM had the ball, probably holding for the last shot.  With 9 seconds left, Haley Jordan drives the baseline throws up a reverse-layup that misses badly and ECSU corralled the board.  Piper Chapman converts an and-1 attempt at the other end with 7 tenths of a second remaining.  Instead of trailing by 4, they trailed by 1 at the break.  USM scored first to begin the second half, but a couple 3's from eastern gave them the lead for good about 4 or 5 minutes in.  Eastern outhustled and out-rebounded USM from then on to keep them at bay.  Can't say if the same thing would've happened if USM had better clock management at the end of the first. 


My finals prediction:
Should be a great one at the O'neil Center.  I would've prefered to play USM in the final and before you say "7express, your an idiot, because USM crushed Western last time they met and Western is 2-0 against Eastern" let me explain 2 things:
1) We weren't going to lose to USM by 22 points again.  USM isn't a very good road team, so we could've taken them on our home court.
2) Eastern is the only team in the league that has the bodies to throw at Melissa Teel and not have a severe mismatch in the paint, and not only that, but ECSU has two to throw at the Colonials in Ta'neisha Carter and Piper Chapman, so if they get Teel in foul trouble the advantage goes to ECSU.  USM only had Courtney Cochrane size wise and she normally gets in early foul trouble.  Also, even though Eastern struggles to score consistantly, they play good defense and when they do score their a dangerous team as they can go inside, outside, or the mid range game.  USM has a good outside game, but their inside game could use more work.  Eastern was the last team to beat us in Feldman arena back in Feb 09.  It will be close throughout especially if Eastern is hitting their shots at a consistant pace but the 3 seniors Karli Spera, Heather Lee, and Melissa Teel will not be denied in their final home contest of their career (barring hosting a pod/sectional which isn't out of the question).  Western gets the auto bid 75-67, but eastern gets a Pool C bid on Monday afternoon.

Pool C implications from Friday (my thoughts at least):
USM is officially eliminated from consideration (RIC wasn't being considered which is why I'm not including them), barring major upsets in conference tournaments (like Rutgers-Newark beating William Paterson for the NJAC auto bid tomorrow, or Farmingdale state beating Mount St. Mary for the Sky auto bid) Eastern Connecticut will be in the NCAA tournament when its all said and done.  Think this win over RIC sealed a bid for the Colonials even with a loss to eastern.

[jumphigh]

wow!!  Teel went for 38 pts. , 24 rebs. and 8 blocks what a nig

[ECSUalum]

7express,

You are correct! ECSU does have Chapman and possibly Carter to neutralize for Teel, but if the Warriors cannot hold Teel to below 20 points, and Spera et al to below 35% FG %, it is over.  Frankly,  IMHO Teel is unstoppable and has tremendous offensive/defensive abilities, and... Western has the best chance in the NCAA of getting deep, so even though I will root for ECSU, I think WCSU will make a better showing for the LEC in the Tourney!! I am debating if I should go to O'Neill Center to watch ECSU/WCSU game or watch ECSU/RIC men's game on LEC TV!! 

[7express]

Teel with another dominating performance as she goes for 39 points 13 rebounds and 7 blocked shots in a 74-58 win over Eastern, as she was a runaway for tournament MVP.  Maybe the easiest MVP choice the conference has ever had to make as she averaged an astonishing 38.5 ppg, 18.5 rbg and 7.5 bpg in West Conn's two tournament games.  Remarkable numbers from a great player.  I don't mean to sound like a homer but with a legitimate draw (especially if were able to snag two home games which we should) this could end up being a final 4 team, no joke.  Any team we play in the tournament that doesn't have bigs is going to be in for a long game, plus were a good 3 point shooting team as well, so if the interior isn't working or isn't there, we can always play from outside.  Even with the Eastern loss, they should snag one of the 20 pool C spots.  Take a look at their schedule and tell me why they don't deserve a bid.

[7express]

West Conn women open the tournament Friday night down at Kean against Messiah university.  They've been an NCAA tournament regular, appearing for the 13th straight time, but this year they fell on hard times, started the season 5-6, but reeled off 15 wins their final 17 games to grab a pool C.  They lost in their conference finals to nationally ranked Lebanon Valley something like 51-37 or a score like that.  Winner of that game gets Vassar/Kean (most likely Kean) on Saturday.  Kean (in Union, NJ) isn't a bad trip at all, been to a few games down there already.  Only takes me about 90 minutes to get there, so i can get there on 1 tank of gas both Friday and Saturday and I can save the hotel since I won't be back that late Friday night and won't have to leave so early Saturday morning to go back there.

I forgot who eastern's first round opponent is, but they definatly made the tournament.  They will be playing up @ Bowdoin and I forgot who Bowdoin plays.  When I see the bracket I will update the ECSU scenerio.  Good to see them in the tournament, even with 3 losses to Western they definatly deserved the trip to the dance, good for Jess Moriarty, Amanda Pierlioni & Britt Whitely have a couple more games left

[7express]

My fault Eastern goes to Amherst to face 4 time CUNY champion Baruch, winner gets Husson-Amherst winner (more then likely Amherst).  Amherst and East Conn played once this year and Amherst was a 14 point winner back in December.

[7express]

USM gets into the ECAC New England tournament as the 2 seed.  They'll host Regis on Wednesday evening, with the winner of that getting Endicott/MCLA winner on the highest remaining seed's court, could be at USM if UNE (the #1 seed) loses to Smith.

Here's the bracket: http://static.psbin.com/h/w/3cgelqexvsayvs/2011_New_England_Women-s_Basketball.pdf