WBB: Little East

[7express]

Thursday predictions:

Lasell 54 @ Keene 63.
Gives Keene a good opponent to bounce back from after 2 tough losses.  Lasell has only cracked 60+ points 6 times in 23 games this year.

Boston 53 @ Suffolk 72.
The second of 2 LEC vs. GNAC matchups on the day.  Suffolk is locked in at 4th for the GNAC tournament (they will play Boston area rival Mount Ida in the 8 team tournament which tips of Tuesday).  Boston is still fighting for their spot in the LEC tournament field.  I almost went to Suffolk coming out of high school, it was my 2nd choice after Hofstra.

Massey predictions:
Suffolk 58-49 (79%)
Keene 76-35 (100%)

[7express]

I'll have Thursday's results combined with Saturday's results tomorrow, busy day ahead of me today.  Sat predictions:

Eastern 62 @ Boston 59.
The game of the day in the conference.  Winner gets the 6 seed, loser is eliminated.  Boston won by double figures in Connecticut last month, so naturally you'd think they'd be the choice at home, right??  Wrong!  Boston has won 1 game since then, against 1-12 Plymouth state, while Eastern has won two straight games against teams with .500 or better records.  They get this win to get in.

Plymouth 43 @ Western 59.
Win for Western and they get the final home spot, lose and we could open on the road.  A loss here would give the Panthers back to back 1-13 seasons in the conference.

USM 65 @ Dartmouth 54.
A loss by Dartmouth here also gives the Colonials the final home spot whether or not the Colonials win or lose.  A Colonials win makes this game meaningless; USM is locked in at #2 (owns the tiebreaker against Keene state), and a Western win locks the Corsairs at #5.

Keene 51 @ RIC 72.
Meaningless for Keene as they need to win the LEC tournament to get into the NCAA tournament, but a lot riding for RIC's sake.  They have to protect the home court against the Owls in order to stay alive and nab one of the pool C spots should they fail to win the LEC tournament.  Anchorwomen won by 30 in Keene last month; this should be closer, but RIC should still pull out a W by 15+ though.

[7express]

Keene and USM declare for the ECAC tournament.  I believe this was the final day to declare, so this list should be the declared teams throughout all 4 regions.  I doubt USM has to worry about it as they should be in the NCAA's, I wouldn't be surprised if Keene got a top 3 seed.  I was hoping West Conn would declare, oh well 

http://static.psbin.com/0/4/czb3meix5j3ihs/Declared_Teams_W_Basketball.pdf

[7express]

Sat results:

Western all over Plymouth 65-40.
Western started the game up 30-6, and never lead by less than 18 the rest of the game for an easy victory.  I feel bad for Stephanie Slonski she's played in almost every game in her 4 year career and on senior day she gets injured and can't play   Hopefully she'll be playing Tuesday.

Boston wins the "win and your in game" over Eastern 75-53.
Eastern started the game off with a 3 pointer from Danyelle Rodriguez...that would be about their only highlight of the game as Boston scored 25 of the next 31 points to go up 16 and they never looked back.  Eastern never got closer than 11 the rest of the game.

USM 75-71.
Coach Gary Fifield records his 600th career win in the Huskies comeback victory.   Haley Jordan and Courtney Cochran combined for 39 points, while Stephanie Houtman lead the Corsairs with 22.

RIC 62-54 over Keene.
Their closest home win of the year, but don't be fooled by the final; RIC was up by 20 at halftime.  Rachel Riley pulled down 12 boards to give her 1,000 in her career, and she joins the exclusive 1,000 point 1,000 rebound club (she scored point #1000 in January at Stevens).

Final standings:
1) RIC 22-3 (13-1)
2) USM 20-5 (11-3)
3) Keene 16-8 (9-5)
4) Western 16-9 (8-6)
5) Dartmouth 16-10 (6-8)
6) Eastern 8-17 (4-10)
6) Boston 8-17 (4-10)
8) Plymouth 5-19 (1-13)

Tournament seedings:
#1 RIC
#2 USM
#3 Keene
#4 Western
#5 Dartmouth
#6 Boston (they finished 2-0 against Eastern so they won the head-to-head tiebreaker).

Tuesday starts the opening round of the LEC tournament:
#6 Boston @ #3 Keene 5:30
#5 Dartmouth @ #4 Western 7:00.  I'll have predictions Monday

[AllStar]

7express:

Keene State actually got it to 54-52, however, and forced RIC to make plays down the stretch for the win.  It wasn't just garbage time that made it look better than it was - RIC actually was challenged a little bit.

[7express]

Tuesday tournament predictions:

Dartmouth 58 @ Western 53.
Just got word Stephanie Slonski is done for the season.  Such a shame    This is a kid that's only not started 3 games since the start of her sophmore year up until Saturday, and her final few games of her career, she gets hurt and won't be able to suit up no matter how far Western goes.  I think Caroline Brasa has the flu as well.  These teams split the season series this year each protecting home court; Dartmouth won by 3 at home a few weeks ago, and Western won by 7 in Danbury in early January (in a game which was a lot closer than the final indicated).  Stephanie actually sat out a portion of that Dartmouth game with an ankle injury, and the team looked lost on the offensive end when she was on the bench.  Combined from 3 against the Corsairs this year the Colonials were 12-36 from behind the arc (33.3%), but just 7-26 in the game we lost.  The 2 teams that lost this year were both winning by 2 at the half, more than likely Dartmouth sweeps them if they don't start the second half shooting 4-20.  Last meeting against the Corsairs Carly Murphy had by far her worst shooting game of the season; 0-8 from the field and none of the misses were even that close and was held to a goose egg in the scoring column.  This game will come down to the Dartmouth bigs (Colleen Moriarty and Erika Borneman) and how Western is shooting the 3.  Borneman and Moriarty combined for 34 points in the game we only shot 7-26 from 3 while in the first meeting even though they combined for 29 points they combined to miss 24 of the 34 shots they took from the floor.  I just think without a floor leader, and Dartmouth not missing the easy looks they had last game they come away with the win.

Boston 53 @ Keene 61.
Taking out the 77 points Keene scored against Plymouth, these are the total number of points Keene has scored in their 4 conference games since recording a 71-33 win over the Beacons on January 28: 49, 53, 56, & 54.  Since January, theirs only been 2 other games besides the 2 I mentioned where Keene has managed to score more than 63 points: they scored 69 against Western in mid January and managed to put up 77 on the Corsairs a week later.  Really, Boston couldn't have played much worse that last meeting up in Keene: they hit on only 25.5% of their shots (12-47) and turned it over 26 times.  As Eastern proved last week, your always gonna be in games against a team that has trouble putting the ball in the basket, and right now, Keene is having trouble in that regard, but maybe the second half against RIC turned that around.  I think Kirsten Morrison will keep the Beacons in the game right up until the 5:00 minute mark, but Courtney Cirillio will make some plays down the stretch to make sure they leave with the win.

[7express]

Opening round prediction:

Keene 54-31.
Keene was up 35-10 at the break and was up 48-18 when I checked on my new iPhone when I got the O'Neill Center.  So much for my prediction of "Boston keeping it close."  At least Boston won the second half 21-19 and won the last 7:35 11-4.

Western beats Dartmouth 65-57.
For the life of me I don't know why this team didn't declare for the ECACs.  Having extra practices and at least 1 extra game possibly 2 or 3 would do this team wonders going forward.  This team loses just 1 senior off their roster, and youngsters like Erika Borneman (a sophmore- 19 points), Kelsey Garrity (a freshmen-20 points), and other freshmen Melissa Daigle & Erica Batchelder could use the postseason expierence.  It's amazing a team like USM which has all this tournament pedigree declares for the ECAC (not that they'll need it this year though), but a team like Dartmouth with almost no success and a talented but very raw roster decides not to give those freshmen some more postseason expierence.  Don't understand it.  Nicole Eanniello had 18 to lead the Colonials, while Jackie Zilnicki had 12 in her first game back since she got injured back in early January (she played less then 4 minutes combined in games against Keene & Plymouth).  Playing in her last college game, what a way for Stephanie Houtman to end her career; 4-19 from the floor (2 of those 4 came in the final 2 minutes when Dartmouth was down double figures), a lot of wild circus shots near the basket that missed badly, yelling at the defense whenever the Colonials had an open 3 look, and quite possibly the worst, got called for a 5 second violation inbounding the ball to start the second half with the Corsairs leading 2.  The Colonials took that turnover, a Nicole Eanniello 3 off that turnover gave us a 1 point lead and we never trailed again.  When you combine Paul Rose and Stephanie Houtman's stats in their last game: 6-33 shooting, 1-11 from 3.  The 3rd time this season in 3 meetings the winning team in the Dartmouth/Western game has trailed at halftime.  In all 3 meetings the home team trailed by 2 at halftime.  That's kinda scary

Sets up the semifinals:
#4 Western Connecticut @ #1 RIC
#3 Keene state vs. #2 USM.  I'll probably head up to Providence Friday, and Willimantic on Saturday because I have more confidence in the Western men beating RIC then the Western women in beating RIC.  I'll have predictions Thursday.

[7express]

Semifinal predictions:

#4 Western 48 @ #1 RIC 56.
In Danbury, this was a 2 point RIC win; in Providence it was like a 30 point RIC win, but was only a 5 point game at halftime.  That second half was probably the worst half I've ever seen the Colonials play in the 3 years I've been enrolled at the school.  We've been outscored in the second half 73-40 by the Anchorwomen this year.  This RIC team is too talented, too deep, and too senior laden to go down in the semi's, but it will probably be close for most of it since RIC doesn't matchup well against us.  Our downfall, like usual will be shooting the ball; if we can shoot 45%+ from 3 we'll be in it up until the end, if not winning it, if not were in trouble.  Without Stephanie Slonski, we need to take care of the basketball in order to even stay competitive; RIC is the conference leader in thefts, and leads the conference in turnovers forced per game.  In 2 meetings this year RIC has forced the Colonials into 37 turnovers and 14 steals.  Against Dartmouth on Tuesday, we turned it over 16 times including 12 via Corsairs steals (10 combined for Shannon Singletary and Kelsye Garrity), we gotta take a lot better care of the ball against an RIC team that will hound you the entire game.  Without a true point guard in there, it will not be fun against this RIC pressure defense.  45%+ 3 point shooting 10 turnovers or less that's our recipe for stealing a W; unfortunately, I don't see any of that happening.

#2 USM 54 vs. #3 Keene state 48 (game at RIC).
The 2 meetings have been close this year; the Huskies won by 7 in Gorham, and lost by 3 in a defensive slugfest where the teams combined for as many turnovers as field goals made (29).  In 2 meetings against USM, the Owls have only shot 35% from the floor (35-100), and turned it over 40 times.  In both meetings this year the team that hit the lower percentage from the floor ended up winning the game: in the January win USM shot 40.4%, Keene shot 41.5%, but USM won, a few weeks ago in Keene, Keene managed to win despite hitting just 27.7% while the Huskies were just slightly better at only 28.1%.  In both meetings, the home team had a huge disparity at the free throw line which more or less resulted in those 2 teams winning since the games were so close; USM outshot the Owls 30-12 at the free throw line in January, while the refs returned the favor in Keene, sending the Owls to the line 22 times and the Huskies just 11.  Hopefully at a neutral site, it's more nuetral and 1 team won't get an advantage at the line. 

[7express]

My LEC predictions.  Conference record in parenthesis:

1) Rhode Island College (12-2). RIC finished 4th in the conference last year, but shot themselves in the foot by only going 1-5 against the top 3 teams in the conference. However, 2 of those teams in the top 3 last year got decimated by graduation. RIC returns the leading scorer in the conference, Stephanie Coro, who averaged over 18 ppg last year, along with 4/5 of their starting 5.
2) Southern Maine (13-3). A perennial favorite in the conference, they have won 18 conference championships, but haven't won since 07/08. They also return 4/5 of their starting 5, and have a great inside outside duo of center Courtney Cochrane and guards Renee Nichols and Erin McNamera.
3) Keene state (10-4). 2 years ago they won the ECAC New England championship (like the NIT except they brake it off into regions with 6 or 8 teams), last year with pretty much the same team that won the ECAC championship they finished tied for 5th in the conference and were lucky to make it to the LEC tournament where they lost in overtime to Eastern Connecticut. They bring back everyone from last year's dissapointing roster as they had no seniors. Last year they finished 4-10, 0-8 against the top 4. This year with no really good teams, they should be right there at the top.
4) Eastern Connecticut (7-7). They have advanced to the last 3 LEC tournament championship games (1-2 in those finals), but will need some help to get back there this year. They lose 3/5 of their starting 5 from last season, but the cupboard isn't totally bare: they return their two best frontcourt players, but have to revamp their backcourt as their PG and SG from last year are gone. If they can find a decent replacement by January, might not be that bad for the Warriors.
4) Massachusetts-Boston (7-7). Last year this young team (only 2 people on the roster were upper classmen [1 junior, 1 senior], along with 7 freshmen) posted only the team's 4th winning season in 28 years. As long as they finish strong this year (they started 11-2 last year before they limped to finish losing 9 of their last 11) they should be in contention for a playoff spot.
6) Western Connecticut (6-8). This will be a challenging year. Gone from this team: Over 40% of scoring, our PG who finished 17th in APG, 50th in assist to turnover ratio, our center who finished 2nd in blocked shots, 14th in double-doubles, 3rd in FG percentage, 40th in PPG, 17th in RPG, and finished with 1 triple double. On top of that, we lose 4 of our top 5 scorers, 3 of our top 4 in FG percentage, our top 3 in FG's attempted and made, our top 2 in 3 point FG's attempted and made, 3 of our top 4 in free throws attempted, 3 of the top 5 in free throws made. The thing that worries me is that since these seniors did so much they were in for the vast majority of the games, and most of the freshmen last year (we had 7 total. 1 was injured the whole season and didn't play, 1 got kicked off the team in December, and 1 transfered this summer) didn't play, aside from the final 60 to 90 seconds of games. We'll need big games from them. Only person that played meaningfull minutes that's still here, Sciarra Brandt, started the majority of games. She doesn't have to fill Melissa Teal's shoes, but if she does half of what Teal does it could be better.
7) Mass-Dartmouth (5-9). Just like Boston another young team consisting of mostly sophmores and juniors. Much like their in-state rivals they should be better next year, but if Western struggles to find consistant offense they could sneak in.
8) Plymouth state (3-13). They have 1 good player, Alicia Ducet. They started last season 7-1 and 1-0 in the LEC. They finished the season 8-17 overall and 1-13 in the LEC, meaning they lost 16 of their final 17 games and their final 13 conference contests. No matter how bad the top of the conference looks, this team still has some work to do.

My projected player of the year:
Stephanie Coro- RIC

All conference team:
Stephanie Coro-RIC
Alica Ducet- Plymouth state
Piper Chapman- Eastern Connecticut
Courtney Cochrane-Southern Maine
Courtney Cirillo- Keene state

my conference tournament projection:
Keene state upsets Southern Maine in the semifinals, then beats RIC in the finals, RIC & Southern Maine join Keene state in the NCAA tournament. None of the other teams get ECAC bids, so those 3 are the only 3 playoff teams.
     

Just found these.  Actually wasn't that far off: RIC finished 13-1, had they lost that game at Western (won by 2) would've finished 12-2.  Nailed USM (that 13-3 should be 11-3).  I overestimated Boston (they really did struggle), and didn't realise half of Eastern's team was gonna be kicked off at Christmas.  Underestimated Dartmouth & Western.  My POY and my all conference team predictions were awful; but in fairness to myself I posted this before I realised Alicia Doucet left the Plymouth program, and likewise didn't realise Piper Chapman was gonna get booted from the team.  Courtney Cirillio may make it on there at seasons end, and Courtney Cochran almost definitely gets on there.

[7express]

Semifinal results:

USM 60-52.
I've never seen a group of guards shoot less then on this Huskies team.  As usual Keene couldn't score when it mattered and that was a big reason why they lost.  Late in the game Keene missed 6 straight shots in what was at the time a 53-46 game with 4:00 minutes to play.  For the game Keene connected on only 32.2% of it's shots and 30% from 3.  Courtney Cochran had 17 points, 13 rebounds and one ridicuously stupid technical foul for elbowing a Keene player to the ground under 2 minutes left when USM was up 10.

RIC 20 point win over Western 67-47.
Don't be fooled by the final score thinking this was somewhat close....it wasn't.  RIC could have won by a lot more, but Marchs Reilly wanted to give everyone on the team a chance to play.  A Sciarra Brandt baseline jumper at 12:37 put us on the board, and a Carly Murphy free throw at 9:27 gave us 3.  Those would be the only 3 points we'd score in the half as RIC raced out to a 37-3 halftime lead.  When your down by that much you have to hope the opposition goes as cold as you did the 2nd half, meanwhile you have to play almost flawless the second half and still it's usually not enough, but really you aren't winning games scoring 3 points in a half.    All 15 people that suited up for RIC played at least 4 minutes.

Championship game prediction (Saturday at RIC 5:00 PM)
#2 USM 56 @ #1 RIC 72.
Just an awful matchup for USM.  Rachel Riley neutralizes Cochran in the paint, and if you eliminate Cochran out of the USM offense it's not doing much.  Unlike the USM guards who have shot-itis (the fear of shooting the ball??), Cynthia Gaudet isn't afraid to shoot it, or drive it.  Getting the ball inside to Rachel Riley and Courtney Burns will draw double teams which will leave Nicole Girard, Stephanie Coro, or Cynthia Gaudet out alone on the wings.  This was a 20+ point win in Providence in January, I say this is closer, but RIC is the far superior team and should win by double digits.  I think both teams are safe for a tourney bid on Monday.

[7express]

RIC leads 25-18 at halftime.  The teams are a combined 16-50 shooting so far with 18 turnovers.  Courtney Cochran has 4 points and 2 fouls for the Huskies, while Rachel Riley and Cynthia Gaudet have 8 each to lead the anchorwomen
RIC ends up winning 50-44 to punch their ticket to the NCAAs.  I still think USM joins them in the field on Monday.

[ECSUalum]

7,
You have done a tremendous job over here on the LEC womens side this year.  Sorry, I was preoccupied with the mens side as obviously ECSU's womens team had some issues  .  However, Coach Bierly  has gotten some excellent young players, ie Shannon McCourt in particular, some, some good experience this year and should be able to build on that next year with some new recruits.  We really missed Tanisha Carter this year, why she went to Bridgeport, ( poor program), I will never know.  Maybe she sensed the problems with certain team mates in advance.  

Congrats to RIC womens basketball for winning the LEC regular season and tournament and for an overall outstanding 2011-12 season!!

Good Luck to the Anchorwomen and any other LEC teams in the big show!!!!

[MVP]

Congratulations to the RIC WBB team!!

[7express]

http://static.psbin.com/t/s/sadj43c29nr3hg/d3hoops-2012-wbb-projection.pdf

That's the projected women's bracket, official one gets announced at 2:30.  I really like RIC's chances to go deep in this one.  That can easily beat Vassar in round 1 (Vassar has no height), and as long as their playing at home they can knock off Colby/UNE (they lost to UNE by 1 up at UNE).  As long as William Paterson makes it, the sectional would more then likely be there, and that's a good team with height and 2 all-americans, so I think their run ends there.

Southern Maine is going to have their hands full with St. Lawrence.  Luckily for them that's a projection and not the official one.  Hopefully the NCAA rewards RIC and doesn't screw them like they screwed Western last year by sending us down to New Jersey.

[Maine 1]

I wouldn't get to involved in the projected brackets, the real ones can be entirely different.