WBB: Little East

[7express]

Thursday results:

Middlebury over Keene 60-54.
At least Keene got scoring from other then Siobhan Carnell tonight: Christan Wojtas and Kelsey Cognetta each had 10 along with Carnell's 21.  Keene finish the game 1-15 from 3.
RIC over Conn College 59-46.  RIC was up 41-36 with about 7:35 the last I saw of this, so they must;ve gone on a scoring barrage to end the game.
48-30 OOC record.

Sat schedule:
USM @ Western
Keene @ Boston
Plymouth @ Dartmnouth
RIC @ Eastern.  USM/Western might be the game of the year, so of course its the game of the week.

[7express]

Sat schedule:

Keene @ Boston.
Keene can't score, Boston's at home.  Hasn't been playing very well, but has done well (save for the Eastern game) this year against teams like Keene.  Boston gets it done.
Score: Boston 69-51
Plymouth @ Dartmouth.
This game will be over by the first timeout of the first half.  No contest.
Score: Dartmouth 85-41
RIC @ Eastern.
Much like Western last year defense can only get you so far, you actually have to put some points on the board.  RIC scored 46 last meeting and are only averaging 56.2 their last 5 games (53 ppg if you take out the 69 they scored vs. Plymouth).  Doubt RIC wins scoring 46 points again.  This will be in the 50's, but RIC will score enough to win.
Score: RIC 59-56
USM @ Western.
Best game of the week, and maybe even the best of the season.  This is definitely the toughest game yet this season for undefeated USM, and with a win probably finishes the season undefeated (I was gonna say they'll lose @ RIC, but RIC can't score enough).  Western has come in winners of 6 straight, are only giving up 47 ppg that stretch, and have held opponents to 45 or below 3 of those 6 times, and are playing the best basketball of the season at the most important time.  However, none of those 6 teams we played were very efficient on the offensive end.  Boston was the best offensive team in that stretch and they got 62, and USM has so many more weapons then they do.  Western doesn't do well against teams with size, and have lost 4 straight to USM.  However, USM doesn't do well in Danbury (won by 1 last year against a much worse Western team), and doesn't do very well against Western in particualar.  Even though they've won 4 straight only one of those 4 was a blowout (January 2011), the other 3 were one possession games with about 2 minutes or less left.  Should be a great game, I recommend everone watch this on littleeast.tv beginning at 1:00 PM.
Score: Western 69-67.  USM is a better team, but I've been saying since December that USM would come in here undefeated and we would win.  With the way were playing now, why would I flip flop??

[7express]

Western leads 31-22, Boston 29-28, Dartmouth 34-16 and Eastern leads RIC 26-24

[7express]

Unbeaten no more:  Western leads by as much as 20 in the 2nd half, wins 68-55 over USM

[7express]

Finals are in:
Western 68-55, Dartmouth big, Boston by 20 over Keene and RIC loses by 2 at Eastern.  Bad bad loss for the Anchorwomen.  As mentioned earlier, defense can only get you so far, you actually have to score some points

[7express]

Sat results:

Western 68-55.
Caroly Murphy finished with a double double of 18 points and 11 rebounds, both game high's.  The Colonials defense was once again absolutely superb this game holding the conference's #1 scoring offense to just 55, 17 below their season average of 72.  The last 5 minutes weren't good, but I'll give it a pass because they were up 20 with 5 minutes to go.  With this win, I think as long as we beat New Paltz Tuesday, at least split the remaining games with Dartmouth & RIC (both at home), make the LEC final (which would probably mean beating RIC/Dartmouth again), and don't trip up in one of the road games (Keene/Eastern/Plymouth), this team should be in the NCAAs.  They are absolutely on fire right now.
Boston 69-48 over Keene.
The Beacons outscored Keene 40-20 in the 2nd to turn what was a competitive game at halftime (29-28 Boston) into a Beacons rout.
Dartmouth 76-39.
Lets not confuse Dartmouth routing Plymouth at home meaning their back on track.  After their 2 joke games midweek (Moutn Ida and Lyndon state) it's put up or shut up for them: @ Western next Saturday @ RIC the following Tuesday.  Dartmouth has been awful on the road in January, but they beat both at home pretty handily, they need to get at least a split.
Eastern 55-53 over RIC.
You have gotta score points RIC!!  RIC has no alternated wins and losses their last 8 games which should change Tuesday since they have Tufts.  All but takes them out of discussion for at-large selection if they even still were in consideration for Pool C anyways.  However, they get the win over Tufts, beat USM, split with Dartmouth and Western, they could be right back in the mix.

Standings:
1) USM 18-1 (8-1)
2) Western 14-5 (7-2)
3) Eastern 7-12 (5-4)
3) Dartmouth 13-5 (5-4)
3) RIC 12-7 (5-4)
6) Boston 12-7 (4-5)
7) Keene 7-12 (2-7)
8) Plymouth 1-17 (0-9)

No Tuesday LEC game this week:
Schedule, Tuesday:
USM @ Colby 5:30
Dartmouth @ Mount Ida 6:00
New Paltz @ Western 7:00
Bowdoin @ Eastern 7:00
RIC @ Tufts 7:00.  New Paltz/Western best of the day.  Was going to be RIC/Tufts, except RIC has gone south in the last few weeks.

[joe8579]

Nice predictions 7express!

I'm not sure I agree with your logic about an at large bid being a possibility for West Conn. They have a decent strength of schedule at this point, but it is liable to go down with the remaining games against the bottom half of the conference. We will have to wait for the regional rankings to come out, but it looks to me like they have either a 1-1 or possibly a 2-2 record against regionally ranked teams. Combine that with 7 losses (according to your scenario of losing one more regular season game plus the conf championship), and I think they'd be on the outside looking in. I think they have to either win out and reach the championship game or win the LEC tournament to get a bid.

We will know more when the regional rankings come out in a week or so.

[7express]

Tuesday schedule:

USM @ Colby.
Lets see how USM bounces back from their first loss of the season.  Colby is a dissapointing 7-11 on the year and 1-5 in the NESCAC.  even on the road, USM should win by double digits.  This certainly would qualify as a bad loss for USM.  USM 85-67
Dartmouth @ Mount Ida.
Dartmouth has lost 3 of their last 4 road games, while Mount Ida has lost their last 7 straight, losing each game by at least 13.  Make it 8 straight losses by at least 13.  Dartmouth 66-41
New Paltz @ Western Connecticut.
New Paltz was undefeated until last Friday when they got drilled at Geneseo state 73-43, however they did rebound with a 9 point win Saturday to come into the O'Neil Center with an overall mark of 16-1 on the season.  For how great overall they've been, they haven't been very good on the road.  In 10 road/neutral games this year they've only won by double digits 3 times in those 10 games.  Western Connecticut is rolling along, winners of 7 straight including an upset of 13th ranked USM on Saturday, they continue their march.  Western 58-54
Bowdoin @ Eastern.
Bowdoin, much like their Maine rivaly Colby lost a lot from last years team and has a dissapointing 10-8 record and have lost 4 of their last 7 games.  Eastern does well against LEC opponents, but they seem to take a step backwards when they go out of conference.  2 days after coming from behind to beat Dartmouth they get drilled at St. Joseph's (CT).  Bowdoin won last seasons meeting by 20, this should be a little closer, but see Bowdoin prevailing in the end.  Bowdoin 65-58
RIC @ Tufts.
This matchup lost a bit of luster in the last couple weeks as RIC has gone south losers of 4 of their last 7 games and has alternated wins and losses their last 8 games.  Tufts is 20-0, in the top 7, and have held their last 7 opponents to 57 points or less.  Doesn't bode well for a RIC team that can't score the ball.  Tufts, like RIC is a defensive first team, but their better at putting the ball in the basket then RIC is.  The 1 thing going for RIC is Tufts has the Amherst showdown this Saturday in Amherst, so chances are their looking forward to that game.  Tufts is still in the NCAAs even if they lose this, so really Tufts doesn't have much to lose, except a potential hosting opportunity.  RIC has much more to lose. RIC won last seasons meeting by 21 in Providence. Tufts 63-45

[7express]

USM drops from 13 to 14 in the poll.  Once again, the only LEC team ranked:

D3hoops.com women's Top 25, Week 9



Through games of Sunday, Jan. 27:



#

School (1st votes)

Rec

Pts

Prev.



1

DePauw (23)

19-0

623

1



2

Calvin (2)

17-1

593

2



3

Hope

18-1

548

3



4

Amherst

19-0

545

4



5

Tufts

20-0

525

6



6

Ohio Northern

18-1

475

8



7

Lewis and Clark

18-1

460

9



8

Montclair State

20-0

453

11



9

Thomas More

18-1

444

10



10

Simpson

18-1

401

14



11

Messiah

17-2

354

5



12

Washington U.

15-3

328

7



13

Catholic

18-1

272

17



14

Southern Maine

18-1

265

13



15

Louisiana College

18-1

258

19



16

UW-Stevens Point

16-4

211

15



17

Cornell

17-1

151

21



18

George Fox

15-4

149

18



19

Mount Union

16-3

142

23



20

Williams

16-3

120

22



21

Lebanon Valley

16-3

115

16



22

Babson

17-2

101

24



23

Moravian

18-2

77

--



24

Ferrum

16-2

76

20



25

FDU-Florham

18-1

60

--


Dropped out: No. 12 St. Thomas; No. 25 UW-Superior.

Others receiving votes: UW-Superior 52; Christopher Newport 40; Emory 34; Carthage 32; Baruch 30; UW-Whitewater 30; Whitman 23; St. Thomas 22; Maryville (Tenn.) 19; UW-Oshkosh 18; Rochester 17; Howard Payne 17; Loras 14; Castleton 8; Wisconsin Lutheran 7; Rhodes 7; Otterbein 3; New Paltz State 2; La Roche 1; Monmouth 1; Ithaca 1; Bridgewater State 1.

[7express]

Western leads 26-17.  This is turning into a very stout and very good defensive unit.  New Paltz is missing some easy ones, but they forced like 10 New Paltz turnovers so far.

[7express]

Other scores USM 60-54, Dartmouth 93-54, Bowdoin 27-21, Tufts 28-14.

[7express]

Tues schedule:

USM 60-54.
Not the way you want to rebound from your first loss, that was a tough one.  Jordan Grant had 25 to lead the way for USM.  How does Erin McNamera play 39 minutes, and gets only 1 point and 2 field goal attempts.  Great work by the USM bench today, brings us back to last year, and looks like their really missing Nash Billew.  In 38 combined minutes for 5 Huskies bench players they averaged a cool 0 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 4 steals, and 4 field goal attempts.
Dartmouth 93-54.
They actually won a road game!!!  Wait, does beating Mount Ida on the road actually count as a road victory, though??  4 Corsairs were in double figures lead by Colleen Moriarty with 30.  They shot 57.8% for the game and had 55 at halftime.  Granted, they match up very well with Western (bigs that can score, fast guards that can drive) but its possible they won't even get 55 all game on Saturday.
Western 49-44.
A win is a win is a win.  The teams combined were 4-28 from 3 and really none of them were evern that close.  Western (4-18) were all going long, New paltz's (0-10) were barely getting iron.  They only "officially" listed New paltz for 25 turnovers, but looked like they had about 50, as they went about 8 straight possessions in the first half with a turnover.  Really didn't give Western anything to work with on offense, agressive on defense, especially in the 2nd.  Didn't let Western get in their flow.  If they don't miss 7 free throws, and don't turn the ball over a zillion times their 17-1.  Hell, even trailing by 9 at halftime due to the turnover problems in the first they had the lead AND the ball with about 2:15 left to play and naturally, you guessed it, turned it over.  Western got a layup to tie.  Next possession was either another turnover or missed shot, Western scored.  Ball game.  Jackie Zilnicki with 17 was the star of the game and Sciarra Brandt with 9 including a couple layups late were the stars of the game.
Bowdoin 61-50.
Why do you take this trip down to Connecticut in the middle of NESCAC play if your Bowdoin??  Breanna Leonard was the game high scorer for Eastern with 17.
Tufts 52-35.
That is the 9th straight opponent Carla Berube's team has held to 50 or less and the 16th time in 21 games this year have held the opponent to 50 or less.  That's also 5 times in the last 7 games the Jumbo's have held the opponent in the 30's, and 9th time in 21 games that has happened.  So to put that in perspective, in more then 40% of their games this year there has been more game time then number of opponents points THAT is a good defense.  I don't care that RIC couldn't hit water from a boat in the middle of the Atlantic, those numbers are extremely impressive no matter the opponent, and they've played some good teams: Williams, Skidmore, Bridgewater, Boston, Emmanuel.  Really looking forward to that game vs. Amherst on Saturday.

51-32 OOC record.
Next games on Thursday:
Lyndon state @ Dartmouth, Johnson state @ Plymouth.  I know its a bold prediction here, but if Plymouth loses this they ain't winning again this season.

[7express]

Thursday schedule:
Plymouth @ Johnson state.
The 2 teams are a combined 4-32 overall on the season and 1-20 in conference action.  Yuck!  After starting 1-1, Plymouth has dropped 16 straight losing all but 1 by double digits.  Johnson state's last 3 losses have been by an average of 36.3 points.  of Johnson state's 15 losses, 14 have been by double digits, however one was by 11 and 2 by 12, unlike Plymouth who's second "closet" loss is by 11 and then third "closest" is 13.  The good news?  Someone has to win, right??  Even if it's 7 OT's tied at 20, right??  If Plymouth loses this, they lose every game the rest of the season by double digits, easy money to take to the bank.
Plymouth 43-40 (3 OT's).   The only points scored in any of the overtimes is Krystin Corliss game winning 3 pointer with 2.8 seconds left in the 3rd overtime.
Lyndon state @ Dartmouth.
Nice way to go into your biggest game of the season Dartmouth by playing two punchless opponents.  Say what you will about how physical demanding the New Paltz game is, but that gives us about 7,000 times more expierence then by beating Mount Ida and Lyndon by a combined 350 points.  I'd rather win a game scoring 49 points then win 2 games BY 49 because you need to play well on defensive end of the court, can't make mistakes.  You can turn the ball over 60 times and scoe 4 fist half points against Lyndon and you'd probably still win by double digits.  May as well just make it a scrimmage, its basically what it is. The combined record of Lyndon state's 5 wins: 14-74.  Tell me why they're playing this??
Dartmouth 90-37

[7express]

Thursday result:

Plymouth loses by 1 62-63.
My god, this team stinks.   I'll nominate them for worst in New England, give me someone better.  They actually had a 10 point lead with 7:11 left to play and got outscored 15-4 to end the game.
Dartmouth 76-53.  Colleen Moriarty with 23 to lead the way.
52-33 OOC record.

Sat schedule:
Keene @ USM
Dartmouth @ Western best game
Eastern @ Plymouth
RIC @ Boston.  Most important game of the day.  Both teams have fallen and are having trouble getting back up.
All games start at 1:00 and as usually I will have predictions Friday.

[7express]

Sat schedule:

Keene @ USM.
USM hasn't looked great their last 2 games.  This is their 6th LEC home game of the year so their going to be spending most of February on the road, and won't be back in Gorham until the final day of the season, February 16 vs. Dartmouth as they embark on a 3 game road swing to Boston, RIC & Plymouth.  If Siobhan Carnall can somehow score 50 points I'd take the Owls, but their scoring has dropped off lately.
USM 73-58
RIC @ Boston.
RIC has lost 4 of their last 6 to fall out of the race.  Boston is on a modest 2 game winning streak following a stretch where they lost 5 out of 6 games to begin 2013.  RIC's only road win of 2013 is @ Plymouth which pretty much shouldn't even count.  Big game in the race for the 4 spot: RIC is tied with Dartmouth & Eastern for 3rd at 5-4 and Boston is a game back in 6th at 4-5.  RIC won the first meeting in Providence 71-57, and since then are only averaging 55 ppg.
Boston 59-56
Eastern @ Plymouth.
Over at halftime.
Eastern 73-34
Dartmouth @ Western.
Western's defense since their 14 point loss @ Dartmouth has been outstanding, holding opponents to 47.6 ppg in their current 8 game winning streak.  Dartmouth's only road victory in LEC conference play is @ Plymouth which as I stated above shouldn't even count.  Dartmouth is a very bad matchup for us, so if 1 team is able to break through against this vaunted defense its the Corsairs.  Last meeting we knew what Dartmouth was doing and couldn't stop it (Moriarty & Bornemann combined for 39 of their 72 points), and with Kelsey Garrity running the point (underrated PG) who's at top of the conference's assist leaderboard, she will be key for Dartmouth's victory.  As I've stated earlier, this team this year has gotten abused by quick PG's (Michaela Crosby of Bridgewater, Sabree Rodriguez of Regis, Garrity the first meeting, the back up for New Paltz constantly got behind the defense she just could never finish).  As I stated the first meeting, the ability to contain and slow Garrity, and how Melissa DiNino and Sha'Quira Palmer (she will be back) do against the Corsairs will be the key.  Don't be shocked if this is close at the end even though we completely blew out USM; we match up a lot better with USM then we do with Dartmouth.  I want nothing to do with them again this year after this game.
Western 65-62