WBB: Little East

[7express]

A few scenerios for this evening:
A Western win would leave Eastern, Western & Dartmouth all tied for 3rd at 8-5 a game behind USM at 9-4 and still leave the 4 way tiebreaker at 9-5 possible (though I highly doubt Eastern wins @ USM).  This scenario also gives RIC the 1 seed.
An Eastern win would leave Western Connecticut somewhere in the 4/5 game (they'd be 2 games back of Eastern & USM with 1 to play).

[7express]

Eastern 32-19 at the half.  Sciarra Brant (7) and Jill Ritrosky (8) lead the way.  Western shooting 8-31 (with about 10 missed layups) and 10 turnovers.  Eastern have 4 less points in 20 minutes than they had in 40 minutes a few weeks back @ Eastern.  I think 13 points with this team that doesn't shoot the ball very well or score many points (second to last in the conference in ppg) is too many points to come back from.  Hopefully I'm wrong.

[7express]

Eastern wins 57-45.  Sciarra Brandt had 16 points for the Colonials, who was the only Colonial in double figures, while Jill Ritrosky had a game high 17 for Eastern.  Eastern outshot Western 32-7 from the fee throw line.  Locks Western in the 4/5 game and will drop the Colonials down to 5 unless the Corsairs lose @ Keene.  Assuming RIC beats Plymouth (and since the Panthers have 3 LEC wins in 4 seasons and Massey has RIC with a 99% win probability that's a pretty safe assumption), the winner of USM/Eastern on Saturday is the 2 seed and the loser (if Dartmouth beats Keene) drops all the way down to 4 and will play Western. Speaking of the Corsairs, they are the biggest winner tonight.  As long as they win @ Keene Saturday, they WILL be the 3 seed.  This loss guarantees Western cannot tie/pass Eastern and USM, so the Corsairs would win a tiebreaker over the loser of USM/Eastern Saturday.  They'd be 2-0 vs. Eastern, so they'd win head-to-head, they'd win a tiebreaker over USM because they'd be 2-0 vs. Eastern while USM would be 0-2.  I'll have full scenario's shortly.

104-32.

Standings:
1) RIC 10-3 (16-8)
2) Eastern 9-4 (17-7)
2) USM 9-4 (17-7)
4) Dartmouth 8-5 (15-9)
5) Western 7-6 (14-10)
6) Keene 4-9 (12-12)
6) Boston 4-9 (13-11)
8) Plymouth 1-12 (2-20)
Note: Eastern currently has the tiebreaker over USM (won the only meeting so far) and Keene currently holds the tiebreaker (1-1 vs. USM while Boston was 0-2). 

Tournament picture:
Much clearer now.  RIC clinches the 1 seed with a win OR Eastern loss
Dartmouth clinches the 3 seed with a win over Keene.  Don't need any other help, ball's in their court.
Assuming RIC beats Plymouth: IF Dartmouth beats Keene, the winner of USM/Eastern clinches the 2 seed and the loser falls to 4.
Western can't finish any higher than 4th: Western finishes 4th and hosts Dartmouth with: A win vs. Boston AND a Dartmouth loss vs. Keene.
Dartmouth finishes 4th with a loss AND Western loss.

[7express]

Sat Predictions:

Boston 46 @ Western 54.
What a great game we'll have here!  One team (Boston) that will open on the road, can't score (6th in points per game at 57.7), can't shoot (next to last in field goal percentage) but plays pretty good defense (3rd in the conference at 55.1 opponents ppg) vs. the other team (Western) that plays good defense (second in the conference at 54.2 ppg), but also can't shoot (next to last in field goals attempted) and can't score (next to last in points per game at 56.6) and will more than likely open on the road as well.  Boston will either end up 6/7, Western is locked in the 4/5 game, only way they'll finish 4th is with a win & Dartmouth loss.  Boston finishes 6th with a win AND Keene loss to Dartmouth, otherwise they're 7th.
Plymouth 36 @ RIC 65.
Nothing to see here.  RIC will rebound nicely after two tough home losses and will officially clinch the 1 seed.  Since this will be the 1/8 matchup (unless RIC loses and Eastern wins @ USM), even though RIC doesn't have a lot of bodies on it's bench, I'd be surprised to see Vandell Andrade, Steph Prusko, or Cara Paladino play any more than 5 or 10 minutes in the second.
Dartmouth 75 @ Keene 65.
Dartmouth has the ball in their court, win and they are the 3 seed.  Since this also has the potential to be the 3/6 game on Tuesday night, I wouldn't be that surprised if the Corsairs bench got a lot of minutes.  I know they need to win the game, but they've been pretty productive.
Eastern 57 @ USM 69.
The game of the day.  Unless Dartmouth loses to Keene, the winner of this game will be the 2 seed, while the loser falls all the way down to 4th and plays Western in the 4/5 game.  A Dartmouth loss to Keene, only drops the loser to 3rd.   Eastern won by 9 in Willimantic, but that was without Rebecca Knight for the Huskies.  They have her back and they're at home.  Huskies get the 2 seed and we get another Eastern/Western matchup at Geissler gymnasium on Tuesday night.

Massey predictions:
USM 59-53 68% win probability
RIC 69-35 100% win probability
Dartmouth 69-68 51% win probability
Western 55-48 71% win probability

[7express]

Western leads 25-20, RIC leads 40-19, USM leads 28-17, and Dartmouth has reappeared with the Jackyl version trailing 31-25.  All games at half.

[7express]

RIC wins 70-33 to lock up home court, Western wins 49-38, USM wins 56-38 to lock up second, Dartmouth down 9 with 8 seconds to go.  That leaves:

RIC 1, USM 2, Eastern 3, Western 4, Dartmouth 5, Keene 6, Boston 7, Plymouth 8.

[7express]

Saturday results:

RIC over Plymouth 70-33.  DeAsia Lawrence had 13 to lead Plymouth; Steph Prusko had 20 points to lead RIC while Vandell Andrade filled the stat sheet: 13 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 5 steals.  Two things: 1) Since Plymouth has to play @ RIC again Tuesday, do you think they're going back to campus, or staying in Rhode Island?  2) Will Plymouth score more or less points on Tuesday??
USM gets the 2 seed with a win over 56-38 win over Eastern.  No double digit scorer for the Warriors, as Julia dePoi, Jordyn Nappi, and Shannon McCourt each lead the team with 6, while Mariah Callendar lead USM with 12 and Rebecca Knight had 11 points & 9 rebounds for USM. 
Western over Boston 49-38.  What did I say yesterday.  Two good defensive teams vs. two teams that can't shoot or score points.  Let's see how it played out.  Teams combined for: less than 90 points (87), 79 rebounds, 24 turnovers, 30 made field goals and a 29.4% field goal percentage (30-102).  Yikes!
Keene over Dartmouth 75-62.  Carly Kiernan lead the Owls with 14 points, and Stephanie D'Annolfo had  16 points and 10 rebounds.  Erika Bornemann had 16 points & 11 rebounds, megan Ronaghan had 17 points and 10 rebounds, and Kelsey Garrity had 10 points, but no one else did anything.  What an incredible disappointment.  Them & Boston by far the 2 biggest dissapointments.  And Btw, you think they want that home loss to Western back right about now??  Up by 8 points at halftime on a team that can't score the basketball at all, yet they lose the game.  At home no less!  And how do you sweep Eastern, beat RIC & beat USM, yet get swept by the worst Western team in 8 years and lose to Keene state??  Mind boggling!  When you look back on the season, the Western win @ Dartmouth February 1 is on my short list for "worst loss of any team in the conference" when you see how the standings played out.  USM losing at home to Keene state in November comes in a close second, but the Huskies still would've had to win a coin flip vs. RIC to host the tournament.

107-33.

Official tournament picture:
#8 Plymouth (2-21, 1-13)
@ 2/25
#1 RIC (17-8, 11-3)

#5 Dartmouth (15-10, 8-6)
@ 2/25
#4 Western (15-10, 8-6)

#7 Boston (13-12, 4-10)
@ 2/25
#2 USM (18-7, 10-4)

#6 Keene (13-12, 5-9)
@ 2/25
#3 Eastern (17-8, 9-5)
Dartmouth went 0-2 vs. Western which is why they get sent on the road
RIC will blow out Plymouth, Eastern should beat Keene, Boston has played USM tough 2 times this year, but in USM with Olivia Murphy out will be too much.  The final game will either be a Dartmouth win or a Western blow out.  No matter what the records and season series say, Dartmouth is the better team, it's just a matter of which Dartmouth team shows up.  If it's the one that showed up here in January, they'll get killed.  If it's the one that played back to back @ Eastern and vs. RIC they'll get the win.  Full predictions Monday.
RIC/Eastern/and Western all have double headers with the men so those games should start at 5:30 like any ordinary Tuesday night conference game.  USM just has a single home game, so that'll be a 7 PM start.

[7express]

Quarterfinal predictions:

#8 Plymouth 34 @ #1 Rhode island College 76.
RIC won the 2 meetings by 31 & 37 points this year.  No reason this shouldn't be much different.  Plymouth will be better next year, but they are overmatched here.

#7 Boston 43 @ #2 USM 57.
The only difference between this game & the Boston/Western game is unlike Western, USM actually has a decent offense.  Boston lost by 8 in Maine, and by 1 last Tuesday in Boston.  Without Olivia Murphy and going on the road, don't think they can keep it.

#6 Keene 57 @ #3 Eastern 69.
Keene lost by 5 in Willimantic and by 9 at home in Keene.  Think Keene can keep it close for a while, but Eastern gets the win at home.

#5 Dartmouth 56 @ #4 Western 72.
Western won by 20 in Danbury in January, and won by 3 @ Dartmouth in February after trailing by 8 at halftime.  As I said the other day this will either be a Dartmouth win or a Western blowout.  Dartmouth has been an absolute dog on the road the last 2 years and an incredible disappointment, so let's cap their disappointing season with a stinker on the road.  Had they either: A) beaten Keene Saturday or B) held onto their 8 point halftime lead vs. Western, both of which would've sent Western to Dartmouth, the Corsairs would win easily at the Tripp.

Edit: Actually scratch that.  Winning EITHER of those 2 games would've sent Keene to Dartmouth instead an even easier win for the Corsairs.  Sure, they just lost @ Keene, but they beat the Owls by like 13 or 15 at home earlier in the season.

[7express]

Halftime scores:

Eastern leads 34-18.  They ended the half on a 17-2 run after Keene had it at 17-16.  Eastern already has 34 rebounds including 12 on offense and Ritrosky has 13.  Carly Kiernan and Sarah Kober each have 6 for Keene; Jordyn Nappi leads Eastern with 11.
RIC up 38-25.  DeAsia Lawrence has 7 for Plymouth, Vandell Andrade has 18 of RIC's 38 to lead the way for the Anchorwomen
Dartmouth up 28-27.  Beth Castantini has 10 for the Corsairs while Colleen Cosker leads Western with 8.  Western completely dominating the taller Corsairs on the glass 31-19 and 16-6 on the offensive end.  Western only shooting 28.6% and has committed 8 turnovers, so the second chance points keeping them in the game.
USM/Boston starts at 7
USM/Boston tied at 29 with 15:22 left.

Eastern, Western, and RIC are your early winners and all 3 are advancing to RIC next Friday.  RIC gets Western in the early game Friday, Eastern gets the winner of USM/Boston in the night cap.

[7express]

Quarterfinal results:

Eastern over Keene 67-53.  Courtney Roberts was the lone Owl in double figures as she finished with 13.  Jordyn Nappi lead Eastern with 23 and Jill Ritrosky had 14 points and 19 rebounds.  Keene lost, when they got outscored 19-2 the final 8:25 of the first to go from up 1 at 8:25 (16-15) to down 16 at halftime (34-18).  Keene never really threatened in the second.  They got it down to 7 at one point, but Eastern held them at bay most of the way.
USM over Boston 53-45.  Kirsten Morrison lead the Beacons with 13 points and Andrea Suffredini had 12 in her final college game, while Rebecca Knight had 15 to lead USM.  That leaves the Beacons at 0-63 overall vs. USM and 0 for in the LEC tournament.  I think if they have Olivia Murphy for either of their 2 games vs. USM the past week, they get at least 1 win.
Western over Dartmouth 64-57.  Colleen Cosker lead Western with 16 and Caroline Brasa had 14 off the bench for the Colonials.  Erika Bornemann had 16 for the Corsairs in her final game and Kelsey Garrity had 14.  Corsairs bench combined for 5 rebounds, 2 field goal attempts and 0 points on the day.  Ends their up and down roller coaster season on a down note.
RIC over Plymouth 56-45.  Vandell Andrade and Cara Paladino combined for 37 points & 24 rebounds for RIC.  The rest of the team combined for  19 points and 9 rebounds.  Suffice to say without those 2 they would have lost??  That's what makes tournaments so great, you rarely ever see a total blowout, and if you do, it's a game you never expect.  Games like this & Emmanuel's loss to Norwich in the GNAC 1 vs. 8 game (Emmanuel had an 80-4 record vs. GNAC opponents dating back to 2006 and hadn't lost to a GNAC team since February 9, 2010 a span of 38 games) are what make this kind of year great.  Expect the unexpected.  Don't take a team seriously because you beat them by 30 & 37 points during the season, and you know what's gonna happen??  You're going to lose, because really, what does Plymouth have to lose in this game??  Nothing!  RIC is the team playing for everything.

Sets up the semifinals as #4 Western @ #1 RIC and #2 USM vs. #3 RIC.  Game times are TBA, but I believe it's going to be 5:30 & 7:30 with the home team playing first.

111-33.

[7express]

Semifinal predictions:

#4 Western 54 @ #1 RIC 59.
RIC has won 6 of the last 7 meetings in the series between these 2 schools dating back to the beginning of the 11/12 season including getting 2 wins this year: 55-44 in Danbury and 65-56 in Providence.  Western has really come on at the end of the season, winning 7 of their last 9 games, and have played the top teams fairly tough this year.  Their downfall will be their lack of offense.  Even though the Western team in the 2012 semifinals got totally blown out @ RIC (I think they lost by about 30 points and the score was 37-3 at halftime I believe) and the 2012 team is a lot better then this years team, I think they can keep it close until the final couple minutes or so.  But RIC at home gets it done.

#2 USM 65 vs. #3 Eastern 54.
The teams split the season series with Eastern winning by 9 at home, and USM winning by 18 at home last Saturday.  The Eastern win in January was without Rebecca Knight for the Huskies.  Both teams are question marks, but the Huskies with Knight are a lot better than the Huskies without Knight, so I'll take USM again, but in a closer game, mainly because USM sucks outside of Maine.

[7express]

Friday results:

USM over Eastern 58-49.  Jordyn Nappi lead Eastern with 16 points, but she only shot 6-20.  Erin McNamera and Megan Pellitier each had 19 to lead the Huskies.
RIC over Western 56-46.  Sciarra Brandt was the lone double figure scorer from Western as she puts in 11 points in her final college game.  Steph Prusko lead the Anchorwomen with 17 points and Vandell Andrade had 11 points & 11 rebounds.  Western lead for about 25 minutes, but a killer 17-5 run for RIC spanning about 10 minutes of the second half turned a 7 point Western lead into a 5 point RIC lead with about 2:45 to play and Western couldn't get closer the rest of the way.  Good team this year.  Couldn't score at all, which was their major downfall, but at least they put up a fight each game and played competitive which is about all you can ask for.

113-33.

Saturday schedule:

#2 USM @ #1 RIC 4 PM

#2 USM 54 @ #1 RIC 51.
Race to 50!  First team there wins.  RIC has failed to crack 50 points in either of their 2 games vs. USM this year getting held to 47 in Providence and 48 in Maine.  The teams split during the regular season with 2 home blowouts (RIC by 16 in Providence, USM by 16 in Maine) so why I am picking the Huskies??  The game in Maine I can forgot about because everyone in the conference loses up there, but the game in Providence was especially troubling.  That Anchorwomen game vs. the Huskies occurred with Rebecca Knight out of the lineup, and as we know the Huskies with Knight are 10 times better then the Huskies without Knight.  Second of all, USM could not have played a more worse game that night then they did: They were held to a season low 31 points, shot only 22.9% for the game (10% in the first half), had 20 turnovers  and nobody scored more than 7 points.  Yet they held to RIC to only 47 points of their own.  With Knight in the offense this time around, I doubt USM is going to score 31 points or get held to 22.9% shooting.  Championship game can bring out early jitters, and when RIC has had trouble putting points on the board this season vs. USM, and the Huskies with Gary Fifield have more big game expierence I'm thinking the Huskies can get a head start and build up enough of a lead to fend up a RIC run, because you know there will be one.

[7express]

Sat results:

RIC 64-59 over USM.  Vandell Andrade lead RIC with 19, Steph Prusko had 15, and Cara Paladino had 14 points & 10 rebounds for the Anchorwomen.  Erin McNamera (23) & Rebecca Knight (21) combined for 44 of USM's 59 points.  I believed USM declared for the ECACs, so they'll still have a couple more games left in their season.  RIC will be the only LEC team in the NCAAs.  I can't see Eastern (at #8) or USM (@ #10) jumping Roger Williams (@ #6), and RWU will either be blocking the rest of the region and the last team on the board when the selection ends, or they'll be 1 of the last teams off in which case Eastern would be next in line but their won't be many, if any rounds left as RWU could very well be the last pool C pick.

113-34 overall.

ECACs start Wednesday, we'll have matchups for those by Monday evening.  We'll know RICs opponent in the NCAA tournament on Monday afternoon.  Nobody else in the conference declared for the ECAC, so those are still the only 2 teams still playing (since I assume USM will be getting an ECAC bid).

[ramfan]

According to ECAC site declared teams are listed and USM is not listed as having declared as of 3/1/14 12:28 pm....

[AllStar]

RIC gets Haverford in the first round with the game being played at Ithaca.  Haverford is 23-3 and won the Centennial Conference tournament.  It's impossible to tell regarding this game...I know nothing about Haverford or the Centennial Conference.  It does look like the Centennial Conference has 3-4 really pathetic teams at the bottom.  Even if RIC wins, Ithaca at Ithaca in the second round would be a hard game to win.