WBB: Little East

[7express]

Dartmouth is falling apart, loses to Curry 75-69.  Bad bad loss.
Western beats Purchase easily, 70-43

They were on the road so it's not surprising.  At this rate, if they played a high school team in the high school team's gymnasium, I doubt they would win.

[7express]

Thursday results:

Western clobbers Purchase 70-43.  Chelsea Mone lead the Colonials with 14 points who finished shooting 48.2% shooting.  Jazmin Garcia had a game high 16 for the Panthers.  Western raced out to a 15 point halftime lead and was never seriously threatened in the second half.
Dartmouth continues to implode losing 69-75 at Curry.  Kelsey Garrity had maybe her best game of the year with 21 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals, and Erika Bornemann added 17 points & rebounds, and the freshmen Megan Ronaghan & Ashley Brown added 11 & 9 points respectively, but it wasn't good enough as Ashley Assarain and Kylie Beltz each put in 25 to lead the way for the Colonels.  This is a huge make or break stretch for the Corsairs.  They have 3 of their next 4 games at home in the Tripp Athletic Center vs. USM, Boston & RIC and a road game at Eastern.  You figure they'll easily lose to Eastern, and probably lose to RIC, so I say they MUST have those 2 wins vs. USM AND Boston upcoming in order to have any chance at clinching the 3rd or 4th seed.  Even if they lose 1, I can't see how they finish in the top 4, and Dartmouth on the road is a guaranteed loss no matter who they play.  So, Bornemann, you've got 5 regular season games left in your career, it's time to rally the troops, because Saturday's game vs. USM is the most important game of the season.

No more non conference games remain, so the conference finishes 55-32 on the non-conference portion of the schedule.  My predictions go to 92-28.

Saturday schedule:
USM @ Dartmouth
Eastern @ Boston
Plymouth @ Western
Keene @ RIC.  I'll go with Eastern/Boston as the best of the day, even though I think Eastern wins by 10+.  USM also likely wins by 10+, sorry Allstar, but I got RIC by at least 15, and Western should clobber Plymouth.  Actually, none of those games look that interesting, tbh.  Good day to stay at home and catch up on the DVR/other teams in the nation, because the games on the men's side aren't very good either.

[AllStar]

No need to apologize.  My expectations for that team are gone.  In fact, at this point, I'm more interested to see how the young men finish than the women.

[ECSUalum]

Thursday results:

Western clobbers Purchase 70-43.  Chelsea Mone lead the Colonials with 14 points who finished shooting 48.2% shooting.  Jazmin Garcia had a game high 16 for the Panthers.  Western raced out to a 15 point halftime lead and was never seriously threatened in the second half.
Dartmouth continues to implode losing 69-75 at Curry.  Kelsey Garrity had maybe her best game of the year with 21 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals, and Erika Bornemann added 17 points & rebounds, and the freshmen Megan Ronaghan & Ashley Brown added 11 & 9 points respectively, but it wasn't good enough as Ashley Assarain and Kylie Beltz each put in 25 to lead the way for the Colonels.  This is a huge make or break stretch for the Corsairs.  They have 3 of their next 4 games at home in the Tripp Athletic Center vs. USM, Boston & RIC and a road game at Eastern.  You figure they'll easily lose to Eastern, and probably lose to RIC, so I say they MUST have those 2 wins vs. USM AND Boston upcoming in order to have any chance at clinching the 3rd or 4th seed.  Even if they lose 1, I can't see how they finish in the top 4, and Dartmouth on the road is a guaranteed loss no matter who they play.  So, Bornemann, you've got 5 regular season games left in your career, it's time to rally the troops, because Saturday's game vs. USM is the most important game of the season.

No more non conference games remain, so the conference finishes 55-32 on the non-conference portion of the schedule.  My predictions go to 92-28.

Saturday schedule:
USM @ Dartmouth
Eastern @ Boston
Plymouth @ Western
Keene @ RIC.  I'll go with Eastern/Boston as the best of the day, even though I think Eastern wins by 10+.  USM also likely wins by 10+, sorry Allstar, but I got RIC by at least 15, and Western should clobber Plymouth.  Actually, none of those games look that interesting, tbh.  Good day to stay at home and catch up on the DVR/other teams in the nation, because the games on the men's side aren't very good either.

7,
+1 for your outstanding prediction record!!!

[7express]

Friday:

USM 73 @ Dartmouth 58.
A huge must win game for Dartmouth to save the floundering ship, but USM is starting to get back healthy.  They get RIC & Eastern at home the next 2 Saturday's, so they are very much still in the race for the top seed, but they can't afford to drop games like this.  They won't.  Important for both games, but USM is the more consistent team.
Eastern 65 @ Boston 53.
Probably the best game of a pretty weak slate.  Eastern had a pretty good game against a decent Conn College team on Tuesday after a week+ of subpar basketball.  The Beacons are a lot better at home, and still a very good defensive team, but the thing for them is if they are able to score points.  Magic number is 55: Eastern gets 55 or above they win, they get 54 or lower they lose.  I'll take Eastern to hit 60 and for them to win the game.
Plymouth 42 @ Western 79.
Since suffering a 19 point loss to SJME to drop Western below .500 on January 4, the Colonials have rattled off 8 wins in their last 11 games, and actually look like a competent basketball team.  Those included a big win at home vs. Eastern, and a big come from behind road win @ Dartmouth.  This team lost a bunch in the early part of the season, and have road games @ RIC & @ Eastern coming up, so they probably won't finish in the top 2, but a home game in the quarters is definitely still on the table for them.
Keene 48 @ RIC 65.
Keene is going the opposite way as Western.  As the Colonials are treading upwards, the Owls are treading downwards after a terrific start to the season losing 6 of their last 9 games.  RIC is coming off a beating at the hands of Tufts, but is still in control of the LEC.

[7express]

Halftime of all games and a bunch of blowouts.  It's sad when Plymouth/Western is your closest game.  That game has the Panthers up 4, RIC leads by 18, Eastern leads by 20, and USM leads by 8. 

[7express]

Eastern wins 64-37
Dartmouth up by 1 with 2:10 left
RIC up 11 with 1:50 left
Western outscored Plymouth 30-12 in the second to win 58-44
RIC wins 70-57.
Dartmouth USM tied at 50 at the end of regulation.  Erin McNamera tied the game for the Huskies on a layup with 16 seconds to play, and Kelsey Garrity missed her own layup at the buzzer.
Dartmouth up by 2 with the ball 26 seconds left.  Last beat USM December 11, 1999.
2 free throws from Megan Ronaghan put Dartmouth up 4.
Dartmouth wins 64-59.  Only the second time ever Dartmouth has defeated USM, the first time was December 11, 1999.

[7express]

Saturday results:

RIC over Keene 70-57.  Jovan Kingwood was the only Owl in double digits with 10 points.  All 5 Anchorwomen were in double figures lead by Cara Paladino & Steph Prusko who each had a game high 14.  Vandell Andrade had 12 points and tied her career high with 22 rebounds.
Western over Plymouth 58-44.  DeAsia Lawrence had 12 for the Panthers and Sciarra brandt had 14 points & 16 rebounds both game highs for the Colonials.  Plymouth lead for most of the first half, before Western took advantage in the second half.
Eastern wallops the Beacons 64-37.  Jill Ritrosky had 12 points & 17 rebounds for Eastern, while Mallory Nelson was the only Beacon in double figures with 14.  The Beacons got a total of 8 points from their trio of Olivia Murphy (2 points), Andrea Suffredini (0 points), and Kirsten Morrison (6 points).  The Beacons were an ice cold 22.8% from the field (Murphy finished 1-13) while the Warriors finished shooting 52.2%.
Dartmouth with an overtime win over USM 64-59.  Rebecca Knight had 16 to lead the Huskies, and Erin McNamera added 11, including the baseline jumper with 16 seconds to go with tied the game and forced overtime.  For the Corsairs, Erika Bornemann had 24 points & 12 rebounds, and Kelsey Garrity added 12 points & 8 rebounds.  A huge win for Dartmouth.  According to the Dartmouth broadcast, this was Dartmouth's first win vs. USM since December 11, 1999 and only their SECOND win in the 66 game series history.  USM now owns an L1 in the series after winning 64 of the previous 65 times.  I know Dartmouth has been pretty terrible and USM has been the class of the league, but 64-1 in 65 games is pretty remarkable.  I would've thought Dartmouth would've caught them napping a couple times in the 27 years or whatever it's been.  I mean Boston has been just as bad if not worse than Dartmouth, and even the Beacons have gotten USM a couple times in that same time frame I think.

95-29 on the predictions.  In case you forgot, LEC finished 55-32 in the non conference slate, and they are done with non LEC games.

Standings:
1) RIC 9-1 (15-6)
2) Eastern 7-3 (15-6)
3) USM 6-4 (14-7)
3) Western 6-4 (13-8)
5) Dartmouth 5-5 (12-9)
6) Boston 3-7 (12-9)
6) Keene 3-7 (11-10)
8) Plymouth 1-9 (2-17)
USM swept the season series from Western, so they win that tiebreaker.  I think Boston wins the tiebreaker vs. Keene since they have a better record vs. USM/Western (1-1 50%) than Keene does (1-2 33%).

Schedule:
Tuesday, February 11:
USM @ Plymouth 5:30 PM
Boston @ Dartmouth 5:30 PM
Western @ RIC 5:30 PM
Eastern @ Keene 5:30 PM.  Boston/Dartmouth and RIC/Western are the 2 best games.  Due to Boston sliding and Western rising, Western/RIC might've taken over top billing.

Saturday, February 15:
Keene @ Western 1 PM
Dartmouth @ Eastern 1 PM
RIC @ USM 1 PM
Boston @ Plymouth 1 PM.  As of now RIC/USM is the best, but if Keene can beat Eastern, and Dartmouth beats Boston, that Dartmouth/Eastern game could take the spot.  I'll let Tuesday play out before I give top billing for Saturday.

[7express]

Tuesday predictions:

USM 73 @ Plymouth 38.
Nothing to see here.  If Plymouth can keep this under 20, it'll be a miracle.

Boston 49 @ Dartmouth 66.
Dartmouth with a great OT victory over USM, and now have to sustain it in this other very important game.  Boston is in another scoring drought, losing their last 4 LEC games, scoring an average of 46 per game in those 4 games.

Western 49 @ RIC 58.
Probably the best game of the day.  This has been a roller coaster type season for Western: Started out with 4 wins to open the season, than lost 5 in a row, rebounded with 5 wins a row, than went on a modest 3 game losing streak, and now are currently on a 4 game winning streak.  Since losing at home to Western January 18, 2011, RIC has won 19 of their last 22 LEC games at the Murray center, the only 3 losses in a 3 game stretch last year where they lost to Western 58-42, Dartmouth 60-57 in overtime, and USM 56-54 in overtime. 

Eastern 67 @ Keene 44.
The wheels have started to fall off the bus for Keene.  Eastern still in the hunt with RIC & USM for the title, but have a tough closing stretch after this (home vs. Dartmouth & Western @ USM) so they can't afford to lose games like this.

Massey ratings:
USM 61-36 98% win probability
RIC 60-45 90% win probability
Dartmouth 64-62 56% win probability
Eastern 68-60 74% win probability

[7express]

Halftime of all 4 games and some interesting scores to put it nicely:
At the game I'm at Western trails RIC by 1 28-29
Dartmouth leads Boston 45-31
Keene leads Eastern 34-33
Plymouth leads USM 23-21.

How many can hold on in second??  Western has been playing great, can they steal one??  Plymoith lead by 4 @ Western before they collapsed in second can they get enough points??  Keene has been an AWFUL second half team lately can they hold up for another 20 minutes??  Conference could be really turned upside down with wins by Plymouth, Keene, and Western.

[7express]

The games today were like Cinemax gave a tease but never went all the way.  Favorites pulled away in the second.
USM won 54-48; Dartmouth won by like 25, sorry Allstar Keene women had ANOTHER second half implosion lost by like 12.  Western fought but bad calls, bad decisions with the ball, and a significant talent gap between these 2 teams leaves Western with a 9 point loss.  I'll have a recap Wednesday as I'm going straight to bed when I get home.

[AllStar]

The games today were like Cinemax gave a tease but never went all the way.  Favorites pulled away in the second.
USM won 54-48; Dartmouth won by like 25, sorry Allstar Keene women had ANOTHER second half implosion lost by like 12.  Western fought but bad calls, bad decisions with the ball, and a significant talent gap between these 2 teams leaves Western with a 9 point loss.  I'll have a recap Wednesday as I'm going straight to bed when I get home.

Don't worry...I'm used to these implosions now!  Included in this implosion was a ridiculous amount of fouls called against both teams.  Eastern got to the line 3 times in the first half and 28 times (!!!) in the second.

[7express]

Before I get to the results, regional rankings: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2014/02/12/2014-ncaa-regional-rankings-week-1/

RIC comes in 8th & Eastern 10th.  USUALLY the cutoff is the 5-7 range between getting in/not getting in, so with that, let's take a look:
Tufts, Williams, Bowdoin & Amherst.  All 4 are locks, but only 1 will win the NESCAC.  So there's at least 3 on the table.
Then you get to UNE & Roger Williams (5th & 7th).  They are both in the same conference, so only 1 could win the auto bid.  RIC lost head to head to both.  I don't think they neccessarly take head-to-head into account anyways.  RWU plays @ UNE to end the season the 22nd.  Hopefully UNE wins that game and wins the championship matchup between the 2 (would also be @ UNE), that's probably enough to get RIC past RWU.
Wheaton at 6th.  There;s a lot of teams playing well in the NEWMAC (Babson just beat #5 Tufts, Wellesley is #12 in region, Coast Guard has some good wins), but nobody is really that stand out good.  That tournament is wide open, but hopefully they win the auto bid to take them off the board.
Eastern definitely has to win the conference to get in, I think in the end RIC does too, but at least they have a pulse unlike Eastern.  IF UNE wins the 2 games vs. RWU & Wheaton wins the NEWMAC that may be enough to get RIC in as an at-large.  As Al Davis says, Just win baby!

[7express]

Eastern beat Keene 78-69.  Kelsey Cognetta had 18 points for Keene while Jill Ritrosky & Jordyn Nappi lead Eastern with 26 & 24 respectively, and Ritrosky added 10 rebounds. 
RIC over Western 65-56.  Colleen Cosker lead Western with 19 while RIC got 4 in double figures lead by Vandell Andrade's 21 & Steph Prusko's 17.  Western played well, but the talent gap was too big to overcome, but nice to see them fightning.
Dartmouth over Boston 76-59.  Olivia Murphy had 19 to lead the Beacons and Kirsten Morrison added 12 off the bench.  Erika Bornemann had 21 points, 6 rebounds and 8 blocks, while Kelsey Garrity added 16 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.
USM over Plymouth 54-48.  DeAsia Lawrence had 12 points to lead the Panthers, while Megan Pellitier had 20 points & 15 rebounds to lead USM.  Erin McNamera played only 9 minutes, if she got injured, they're in big trouble.

99-29 predictions.  LEC finished 55-32 in non conference play.

Standings:
1) RIC 10-1 (16-6)
2) Eastern 8-3 (16-6)
3) USM 7-4 (15-7)
4) Western 6-5 (13-9)
4) Dartmouth 6-5 (13-9)
6) Keene 3-8 (11-11)
6) Boston 3-8 (12-10)
8) Plymouth 1-10 (2-18)
Tiebreakers: Western swept Dartmouth, so the Colonials win any tiebreaker over the Corsairs.  Keene is 1-1 vs. USM (50%) while the Beacons are 0-1 (0%), so the Owls win a tiebreaker over the Beacons.

Saturday schedule:
Keene @ Western 1 PM
Dartmouth @ Eastern 1 PM
Boston @ Plymouth 1 PM
RIC @ USM.  RIC/USM is the best game, but Eastern/Dartmouth is a close second.

[7express]

Sat predictions:

Keene 53 @ Western 65.
Keene will probably play well the first half, but they can't close the deal.  With a win, Western would finish no lower than 5th place.
Dartmouth 65 @ Eastern 69.
Dartmouth had 2 big wins at home last week, but I just cannot trust them on the road in a big game like this.  Dartmouth is still in the running to finish as high as second, and a win in this game would give them a head-to-head sweep over Eastern which would be great for them in case they tied USM, but since 2 of their last 3 are on the road, and the lone home game is with RIC I don't see it happening.  They probably end up in the 4/5 game with Western.  Much like Western, a win by the Corsairs would guarantee Dartmouth no worse than a 5th place finish.
Boston 54 @ Plymouth 56.
Plymouth beat them in Boston, and the Panthers have had halftime leads against Western & USM the last 2 games.  The Beacons don't quite have the offensive firepower that the Colonials or Huskies do, so if the Panthers are able to lead at half again, they should be able to hang on and win.
RIC 67 @ USM 69.
USM has been up and down and they've been an absolute killer for me this year.  After 2 awful showings on the road @ Dartmouth & @ Plymouth this past week, USM is going to be smelling blood in the water.  RIC wouldn't lock down the #1 seed, but they'd win at least a share of the title with the win.  A win by the Huskies leaves the door open ever so slightly for the Huskies, and makes it an interesting race with the Colonials.