WBB: Little East

[7express]

Sat schedule in terms of game importance:

Keene @ Dartmouth 1 PM
Dartmouth clinches their first regular season LEC title in program history with a win OR Eastern loss to Southern Maine.  In the event Eastern wins and Dartmouth loses, the teams tie for the crown, but Eastern gets the 1 seed on tiebreaker.  Meanwhile, after being left for dead by me.....twice in the last 2 weeks, the Owls can still end up hosting a quarterfinal game.  They can actually get as high as #3 with a win and losses by USM (@ Eastern) AND Boston (vs. Western).  They'd win a 3 way tiebreaker between Boston at 8-6 (both would be 1-1 vs. each other, 1-1 vs. Dartmouth in this scenario, but Keene would be the only team that would've defeated Eastern).  Since the Owls currently hold the tiebreaker against BOTH Boston and USM due to having the victory against Eastern in their pocket, they just need either the Beacons OR Huskies to lose while winning.  Both scenario's for the Owls to have a home game require them to beat Dartmouth on the road, but it's a miracle they are even in that position right now.

Western @ Boston 1 PM
No matter what happens in the games around them Western WILL BE opening on the road; they'll be finishing either 5th or 6th.  IF Keene beats Dartmouth, Western will be the 6 seed.  IF both teams lose, Western is also stuck in 5th.  Since the Colonials hold the season-series head to head sweep of the Owls if Western wins AND Keene loses Western is 5th.  Boston can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th.  No matter what happens elsewhere a Beacons win will GUARANTEE them at least the 4 seed, and a quarterfinal home game which would be their second in program history.  As it stands now, the Beacons hold the tiebreaker over the Owls however if USM beats Eastern the Huskies would nab that tiebreaker.  In the 3 way tie at 8-6 between Keene, USM and Boston, I believe Boston would be the last team out due to having less conference road wins then USM would but I'm not sure what exactly is the next tiebreaker after results vs. the conference since they would've exhausted all measures there. Boston also finishes 5th with a USM win AND Keene win; as mentioned above Keene currently holds the tiebreaker on thee Beacons.  Boston doesn't have to worry about what happens around them, win the  game, they play in Boston next Tuesday.  Lose the game and that's where things get interesting for them!  Remember, Dartmouth was in the same boat last year (beat Keene and they were at home as the 3 seed, lose and they were sent to Western as the 5 seed where they hadn't won in 10 prior meetings and were 0-2 that year against).  I know USM has been AWFUL at home in 2015 but when I'm 1-67 for my career against the Huskies I DO NOT want to go back up there!

USM @ Eastern 1 PM.
A Dartmouth loss to Keene would give the Warriors a chance to capture a share of the regular season title, the 1 seed on tiebreaker vs. Dartmouth and a chance for LEC history as I believe that would be the first time since the LEC was formed that the same school would hold the 1 seed on both the men's and women's side of the tournament, and assuming both the Eastern men and women won their first round games, the first time the same school would host both the men's and women's semifinals and finals.  USM is shooting for history of their own.  A win at Eastern would give them a perfect 7-0 road mark in conference, the first time an LEC team has completed an undefeated road record through conference play since USM accomplished the same feat in the 2007/08 season when they finished 13-1 with the lone conference loss coming at home to Eastern.  It's too bad the team finished a subpar 2-5 at home which will go down as the second worst home record in the conference this year behind winless Plymouth state who currently sports an 0-6 home record with 1 game remaining.  Since Eastern swept the Beacons the Warriors can't finish any lower then 2nd as the Warriors will win a 3 way tiebreak between the Huskies and Beacons due to being a combined 3-1 against those 2 if all 3 finishes the season at 9-5.  The Huskies can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th.  Like with the Beacons, they win the game and they are at home (but do they really want to play at home??)  Like the Beacons they will lose a tiebreaker to the Owls if Keene wins and USM loses; in that case they'd finish 5th.

RIC @ Plymouth.
Panthers looking to avoid their second 0-14 LEC season in 3 years and are locked in at 8th.  RIC is locked in at 7th and is looking likely they'll get another game against Eastern in the 2/7 matchup.  I know it's tough to beat a team, especially a good team 3 times in 1 season, but the styles RIC and Eastern play RIC is a bad, bad matchup for them.  If I'm the Warriors I'm praying Keene can put up a defensive effort like they did the second half vs. the Warriors last week and are able to score just enough to beat the Corsairs because if I'm a Warriors fan I want nothing to do with RIC again.

[7express]

2nd part of the preview; the projected standings.  This was difficult as there's s crop of 4 or 5 teams that are pretty good, but each with a different weakness: Eastern can't win big road games, Dartmouth can't win on the road period, Western can't score, Boston REALLY can't score, RIC lost the coach of the year AND the MVP, and what happens to USM this year should Rebecca Knight get hurt again??  The Huskies fell off the cliff last January in the 3 weeks Knight was out and they don't have McNamera this year anymore.  With that said, I'll take my best shot, but I'm not feeling confident at all in these selections:

1) USM (11-3).  Unlike the other teams vs. each other, USM hardly (ever) loses at home to those teams.  They've never lost to Boston, they lost once to Dartmouth, RIC hasn't beaten them in Maine in forever, neither has Western.  They'll struggle on the road, but so will all the other candidates however.  They only averaged 61 points per game as a team last year, and Erin McNamera lead the team in points and assists and was second in steal.  Rebecca Knight, Stephanie Gallagher & Taylor Flood look like their only offense weapons this year: who will they go to if one of those 3 gets hurt and do they have a bench??  What really helps them this year is they have the Connecticut trips on the bookends of the season (@ Western December 6 opening day, @ eastern February 21 final day) and the RIC trip is on a Saturday as well.  All the other weeknight & weekend trips are relatively close
2) Eastern (10-4).  The Warriors had a taste of success last year: they got off to an early lead in the conference as they beat RIC in the LEC opener and stayed ahead of the pack until they lost the rematch in Providence, and faded in February culminating in a semifinal loss to USM.  Eastern has everyone back that played major minutes included hopefully having Krystina Forsman back for the whole year.  I think overall the Warriors are better then the Huskies, I just don't trust their ability to win a big game on the road, so I'm weary.  I know the Huskies can win a game @ RIC or @ Western or @ Eastern.  I'm not sure the Warriors can win @ Western, @ RIC or @ USM.
2) Dartmouth (10-4).  Another very talented team that is probably better then the team predicted in first, but like the eastern counterparts cannot trust them on the road.  Last year they had the 4 seed in the bag, all they had to do was beat 4-9 Keene state on the road.  Couldn't do it.  Kelsey Garrity is the best PG in the conference, Meghan Ronagan is reigning rookie of the year.  Amanda VanVoorhis resigned her post as coach to become the full time AD at Dartmouth.  Much like Eastern, I'm not entirely sold on their ability to win @ RIC, @ USM or @ Western, they got crushed at all 3 places the past year.
4) Boston (8-6).  I said in the schedule preview last night I love the staff Courtney Mattingly put together.  All 3 are familiar with the conference as all 3 played in the conference, 2 of the 3 as recently as last season.  And what I found out last year the Beacons are a lot more than just Kirsten Morrison & Olivia Murphy.  Chantal Jordan, Katrina Edwards and Mallory Nelson were all freshmen last year but still stepped up in January when Morrison was out with a foot injury.  If they can get balanced scoring they can be good.
5) RIC (7-7).  Their 4 leading scorers are all gone including reigning MVP Vandell Andrade.  Another team that can't score but plays good defense.   They only have 1 senior who hasn't played before but should rebound next year.
5) Western (7-7).  Like RIC the Colonials have a very young team as they only have 2 upper classmen currently on the roster: 1 senior and 1 junior so the future is definitely bright, I'm just not sure if it's bright this year.  They didn't have 1 player average double digit points last year and only averaged 56.2 points as a team
7) Keene (5-9).  Owls have some talent there.  Stephanie D'Annolfo came out on fire last year as a freshmen, Christan Wojtas disappointed but has the track record, Ryanne Williams disappeared last year after a strong season, Amanda Petrow had some good games last year so there's promise there.  They'll steal a couple from the top 6 at home, but not enough to make a dent.
8) Plymouth (3-11).  Still a few years away but were competitive last year.  Tiffany Lewis is a senior so obviously she'll be gone next year but Savannah Miller (SO), Rosalie Edmonds (SO), and DeAsia Lawrence (SO) is a good trio for Liz Stitch to build around.  Add in junior Taylor Perry to that mix, the fact they were so close a number of times last year and the conference is lacking a true "dominant" team and I think it's time for the Panthers to pick up more than 1 LEC win for the first time since 2010.

Player of the year:
Rebecca Knight-USM

First team:
Knight
Kelsey Garrity-Dartmouth
Jill Ritrosky-Eastern
Jordyn Nappi- Eastern
Meghan Ronaghan-Dartmouth
Olivia Murphy-Boston

LEC tournament final:
Dartmouth over USM in the final.  I just think in a 1 game win and advance lose or go home, the team with better talent advances.  That's why if these standings do play out the winner of Eastern/Dartmouth wins the tournament.  Both of them have better talent then USM does.

NCAA tournament:
Since the conference doesn't have a very good team, and the top 5 or 6 will beat up on each other I don't see how the conference get more than 1 team in the tournament.  Of all the teams I'd say Eastern has the best shot to land a pool C bid with Emmanuel, Williams, Amherst & Tufts on the schedule as marquee games.  Split those 4 and they are in the discussion (they were in discussion last year and lost all 3 of them [didn't play Tufts, but had a 4th loss to NCAA participant Hartwick instead).  Win 3 of those 4 and I think they get in.  Sweep all 4 and they are definitely in unless they completely fall apart during LEC play which I can't see happening.

Always like to bring out these.  The USM & Keene picks were a disaster!  I had no clue at all USM would be 6-0 on the road but winless at home, save for beating the 7th & 8th place teams.  Keene surprised me.  Both Eastern & Dartmouth can end up 10-4 so that wasn't bad.  Boston can also end up 8-6 and in 4th, so that wasn't really bad either.  By far my worst selections were Knight for player of the year and Jordyn Nappi on the first team

[7express]

Had a really long message last night and my internet crapped out before I could post it:

Dartmouth 77-48.  They'll start fast and pull away late for the crown.
Boston 63-58.  Caroline Brasa I think is still out for Western which hurts their chances.  Beacons clinch a home game.
USM 73-64.  Play much better on the road and still have that undefeated road mark going for them.
RIC 62-47.  2 teams playing out the string on the season

[7express]

Keene leads 40-29 with about 15:50 to play
Eastern rolling USM 45-25 with about 10 minutes to go
RIC up 35-26 just starting 2nd half
Western's bus broke down on the way up to Boston this morning, so that game is just getting started.

[7express]

Eastern wins 56-41.  Nobody for USM scored more than 8 points as Miranda Nicely had 8 points off the bench for the Huskies.  Shannon McCourt lead the Warriors with 12 points and Lindsay Lagenauer had a game high 11 rebounds.  Where this leaves both teams: Eastern finishes first with a Dartmouth loss; USM finishes 3rd with a Keene loss AND Boston loss.  USM finishes 4th with a Keene loss and Boston win; USM finishes 5th with a Keene win AND Boston win.

Keene beats Dartmouth 70-55    Yikes!  Kelsey Cognetta had a game high 20 for the Owls.  The Corsairs, who did not have a player record double digit points were lead by Kelsey Garrity, who had a team high 9 and also pulled down a team high 10 rebounds.  What this means for both teams:  Keene guarantees themselves a home game in the quarterfinals since they won the tiebreaker over USM.  They will finish 3rd if Boston loses to Western since I believe they win a 3 team tiebreaker between Boston & USM at 8-6; The Owls will finish in 4th with a Boston win.  Since Eastern won, Dartmouth now finishes as the 2 seed and will be playing RIC at home Tuesday night.

RIC beats Plymouth 66-53.  Devin Hill had a game high 22 for RIC, Alex Moore added 20 as well and Jessica Patalano added 12 points and a team high 10 rebounds off the bench.  Tiffany Lewis lead the Panthers with 13 points and 12 rebounds.  What this means for both teams: RIC was locked in an #7 going in and will now travel to the 2 seed Dartmouth.  Plymouth was locked in at #8 and will now be traveling to the 1 seed Eastern.

Boston leads 45-32 with 12 minutes left.  A Boston win would leave the Beacons 3rd, Keene 4th, & USM 5th.  A Western win would leave Keene 3rd, USM 4th and Boston 5th.  With Keene's win over Dartmouth that has officially locked the Colonials in as the 6 seed regardless of whether they win or lose.

Boston wins 64-48.  No boxscore but I believe the Beacons were up by about 7 or 8 at the half and cruised from there.  Boston clinches the 3 seed and we will have this exact same matchup on Tuesday night in the exact same place as Western was locked into the 6 seed after Dartmouth's loss to Keene.

[7express]

Quarterfinal picks:

#8 Plymouth @ #1 Eastern 5:30.
Shouldn't be much of a contest as Plymouth is 2-67 in their last 69 LEC games (2-69 in their last 71 conference games if you include the tournament).  Eastern won both meetings by 29 and should be right around that number again as the oddsmakers are banking on the Panthers having a better showing, as the Warriors are only a 27 point favorite.  No matter the number, Eastern wins by 20+ 66-38

#7 RIC @ #2 Dartmouth 5:30.
The Anchorwomen snapped a 7 game losing streak with a win over the Plymouth Panthers last time out.  Meanwhile, the Corsairs have to recover....they lost by 15 at home to Keene with the title on the line, so how they bounceback will be key.  Dartmouth swept them during the regular season, but only won by in Providence last week scoring less than 50 points.  Dartmouth is a 12.5 point favorite since they won @ Dartmouth by 20.  RIC can be a scary team when healthy: they did sweep Eastern, beat Western, and lost to USM & Dartmouth by only 4.  However, those games were all at home and they are going on the road.  I think they'll keep it close because they have nothing to lose, but Dartmouth pulls away late to win 72-55

#6 Western @ #3 Boston 7.
The lone game that starts at 7.  Like the previous first 2, the Beacons swept the season series winning by 15 in Danbury and by 16 in Boston on Saturday.  The win on Saturday gave the Beacons both a program high 17th win AND a program high 9 LEC victories.  The problem, like usual for the Colonials is they just cannot score.  Against the top 5 scoring offenses (which the Beacons reside) the Colonials are a meager 3-7.  Even though they are #2 in scoring defense, I've mentioned time-and-time again with RIC in 2013 and Western & Keene the last few years, that defense can only get you so far, you actually have to score some points.  And I don't think the Colonials can do that, especially if Caroline Brasa is still out.  The Beacons are a 6.5 point favorite.  I've been singing the Beacons praises all season long, why would I change my tune now??  Boston 63-47

#5 USM @ #4 Keene.
2-6; 6-1.  2-6 is USM's record in LEC games in Gorham; 6-1 in USM's record in conference road games.  Good news for USM??  This game is on the road.  Bad news for USM??  Megan Pelletier got hurt in Boston game, and they looked flat out awful against Eastern on Saturday without her.  Keene meanwhile wins @ Dartmouth and @ Eastern but they got swept by Western, and like the Huskies the Owls had more wins on the road in conference play (5) than at home in Spaulding (3), so who knows??  The oddsmakers agree which is why Keene is only a 2 point favorite.  Even though the Huskies are sub .500, and the Owls are at 16-9, I actually do think the Huskies are a slightly better team and have a couple streaks to uphold; The Huskies aren't getting to 18 wins, so this year will be their lowest win total since they won 18 in 2011....however since the LEC was formed the Huskies have NEVER finished below .500.  They have to win 2 straight in the tournament to keep that streak alive for another year and beating Eastern will be tough to achieve but they at least keep it alive for another day as they win in Keene 66-58

[7express]

Keene leads 30-19 at the half.  Apparently Steph D'Annolfo is out for Keene as she didn't start and hasn't appeared in the game but looks like she's in uniform so maybe just a first half thing who knows??
Eastern up 44-14 at halftime.  Plymouth will lucky to end the game with 44 points so I'm calling that.  Women's semifinals will be at Eastern on Friday
Dartmouth leads RIC 38-23 and Boston/Western starts at 7

[7express]

Eastern wins by about 40.  If the Eastern men win I believe the semifinals are at 1 & 3 on Friday; if the Eastern men lose semifinals are at 5:30 & 7:30
Dartmouth rebounds wins by 18
USM loses 46-63; clinches their first losing season since the LEC was formed
Boston is currently up 16-9 in the late starting game.

[AllStar]

With the change in the schedule...the semifinals will now happen Saturday evening and the final on Sunday afternoon (all at ECSU)

Saturday:

5:00 pm - Keene State at Eastern Connecticut

7:00 pm - UMass-Boston vs UMass-Dartmouth (UMass-Dartmouth plays as home team)

Sunday:

2:00 pm - Championship game

[amh63]

Just found out the NESCAC semi-finals/finals hosted by Trinity will be broadcasted by NSN vice the Trinity host...an upgrade!  To the point here...there seems to have been a change in the company that does the video broadcast of ECSU.  I find the new set-up to be a downgrade from the old one.  Is there a chance that the LEC will make a change for the upcoming Tourny?
Hope to catch a few games after the Amherst games on Sat.  Will be close for the ECSU game.

Watched the MBB LEC broadcast...seems the webcast has gone back to former days!  Answered my question.

[7express]

On the ECAC declared list: http://static.psbin.com/l/c/kebrv9xz8szs9r/2015_DIII_W_Basketball_Declared_Teams.pd

Keene should be an absolute lock for the tournament with at worst a 17-10 record, and will probably get a pretty high seed.  Outside of Westfield State, Regis (both 1 seed's in their respective conferences and playing in the conference championship game at home) and Roger Williams (lost in round 1) I think Keene has the 4th best record of all the NE teams and since Keene is willing to host throughout unlike Roger Williams, Regis or Westfield Keene has a pretty good opportunity to play every game at home.  Sad to see Boston or Western didn't declare though.  I know Caroline Brasa is injured but the rest of the team is coming back next year; meanwhile for the Beacons Kirsten Morrison is graduating, but they get back Olivia Murphy, Taje Burston, Grace Geary and pretty much every other major contributor from this year's historic team.  Western is 16-10 Boston will be at worst 18-9 so both likely would've made it, and both teams could've used the couple extra days of practice and another postseason game or 2.

[7express]

Making my picks now since I'll be at a wedding when the games start tomorrow (who schedules a wedding on Championship Saturday anyways  )

#4 Keene @ #1 Eastern 5 PM,
Interesting game we've got going on here.  The season series was tied 1-1 with the road team winning both games; Eastern won by 7 in Keene, and the Owls won by 13 in Willimantic, holding the Warriors to 20% shooting and 35 points (12 in the second half).  That game they only managed 48 on their own, and even though they are the 3rd highest scoring team in the conference (yah I was shocked too when I saw that) they have been held to an average of 51.5 points in 2 games vs. Eastern this year so like I usually say with Keene defense can only get you so far you actually have to score some points.  Eastern isn't very likely to get held to 35 points again (almost 30 points lower than their 63 per game average) OR get held to 12 points in 1 half again OR get held to 20.6% shooting again (the Warriors average about 37% shooting), so Keene will have to score more than 48 points to give themselves a chance.  Will they do it??  I think so.  Will it be enough to win??  I don't think so.  Warriors are a big 8 point favorite in this game, but I like the Owls to keep it close with Eastern winning 57-51.  Since Keene declared for the ECAC they will have at least 1 more game left win or lose (since they'll be a lock for the ECAC) while it's boom or bust for Eastern sitting at #10 in the Northeast in the final regional rankings.

#2 Dartmouth vs. #3 Boston 7:30 PM.
Do I really have to pick a loser for this game??  The 2 bandwagons I've been driving the last 3 years and the one game I was most looking forward to watching this weekend turns out I won't be doing much if any watching (I gotta go scout out a corner where I won't be seen so I can watch is).  Season series was tied 1-1 with the home team winning both games; Dartmouth won by 10 at home, Boston erased a 13 point deficit and knocked off Dartmouth on a buzzer-beating 3 pointer in Boston.  Both have had banner seasons for their respective programs: Dartmouth clinching a share of their first LEC regular season title, and with 2 more wins would set a new program high for victories.  Boston has already set school records with victories in a season (18), LEC victories in a season (9) and LEC tournament victories in a season (1).  Yup, they were 0-25 in the tournament before knocking off Western the other night.  Oddsmakers have made this a pick 'em game.  I really like both teams but I'm giving the slightest edge to Dartmouth.....mainly because they were in the Beacons shoes 2 years ago up in Maine when they made the LEC semifinals for the first time in forever, survived Western missing 2 bunnies at the end of regulation and then winning in overtime.  Even though they got completely slaughtered in the finals against USM, I'm guessing for Dartmouth it was a "we're just happy to be here moment" and it layed the foundation for what should've been a banner year in 2014 (whoops that didn't happen!) but they had enough key pieces for one last run in 2015.  That enough is going to get the Corsairs the win.  I'm thinking the Beacons will just be happy to get out of the first round for once, get their feet wet and THAN next year when they'll really be good (only lose Kirsten Morrison, get everyone else back) they'll have this experience to lean back on.  Unlike Boston, the Corsairs window is going to run out the next time they lose when Kelsey Garrity will lose eligibility, and unlike Eastern Dartmouth is very much still in play for a Pool C bid.  So, that's why I'll take the Corsairs 65-64 but should be an excellent game, both Matt Duchene and Courtney Mattingly had the UMass programs heading in the right direction and both should be leading candidates for coach of the year.

[7express]

Eastern leads 22-13 at halftime.

[AllStar]

Eastern leads 22-13 at halftime.

Eastern won 51-30 in a horrible basketball game.  Scoring 30 points is embarrassing....and shooting BELOW 20% while doing so is even more so.  I guess Keene will play in the ECAC's after all...that may be good after that debacle.

UMass-Boston broke from a halftime tie to throttle UMass-Dartmouth 71-48.  I'm happy for UMass-Boston...Mattingly has that program turning around after they used to be a complete punching bag.  UMass-Dartmouth struggled mightily at the end of the season.

[7express]

I'm on my phone so can't copy things I posted earlier but I vaguely remember, in the Beacons preview talking about the coaching staff Courtney Mattingly and the program assembled this off season would be a key for them.  This program was even deeper than the depth at the bottom of the Boston Bay when Mattingly took over, completely remarkable what she's been able to do with them.  And I'll go on record and say they actually peaked a year to early to boot.  They only lose Kirsten Morrison from this years team so get Olivia Murphy back, Grace Geary back (maybe another rookie of the year from Boston), so next year should be pretty good.  Taking a look next year looks to be a pretty good year for returning players, take a look:

Eastern loses 2 guards in Taylor McBride and Kristina Forsman, but gets back Jill Ritrosky who was probably their best player.
Western loses Caroline Brasa, returns everyone else from a 16-10 team.
Not sure who RIC is graduating, but I know Michelle Lagorriteria, Devin Hill and Alex Moore all have eligibility left for next year.
USM has Megan Pelletier back, but loses Rebecca Knight and Taylor Flood.
Dartmouth probably has the biggest loss in Kelsey Garrity, but Megan Ronaghan (2014 ROY) is back as well as 3 point specialists Beth Castanti back.
Plymouth I never saw so no idea who's back/returns but they look hopeless for next year anyways.
Keene has Kelsey Cognetta (she's know the best PG in the conference now since Garrity is graduating) Stephanie D'Annolfo, Sarah Kuber, Amanda Petrow.  If Christan Wojtas was back I'd REALLY like them next year, but shouid still be good and the extra practices for the ECACs they'll have definitely won't hurt them.
As mentioned Boston loses Morrison, but has Murphy, Geary, Taje Burston, Mallory Nelson, Chantal Jordan.

Looking at that list you could make a compelling case for 5 or even 6 teams to be the preseason champ.  Right now I'd say Eastern or Boston look like the 2 best but a lot of time between now and November that can change that stance but from
What I'm seeing  I'm really looking forward to 2016.