WBB: Little East

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Women's first regional rankings of the season are out: http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2018/02/women-regional-rankings-first

What are your thoughts on Roger Williams being ranked 5th ahead of Mass Dartmouth?

Off the top of my head, Roger Williams has a head-to-head win over Mass Darthmouth... records are pretty equal, UMD has a slightly better SOS... don't know the rest of the data off the top of my head, but that head-to-head seems to be the deciding factor there.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Hi Dave. That RWU loss to Curry yesterday has to hurt the Hawks Northeast ranking?

It won't help. The big thing this week is that other data is now in play, like Results vs. Regionally Ranked Opponents (vRRO) that couldn't be used last week. As a result, even with a win or loss, teams will move around anyway.

The loss to Curry hurts the WL% and it is going to hurt comparable numbers. At this point in the season, to keep one's position, winning is the best option. Losing happens and the opponent usually matters less than the fact it was a loss.

[SidelineHero]

RWU has the head to head victory very early on in the year and the Hawks are having a great season, no doubt.  With that being said, Mass Dartmouth has a tougher schedule with better victories under their belt. Mean while Roger Williams lost to Curry.  I agree with the top four in the rankings but I think Mass Dartmouth has to be Fifth in the region. RWU would be close behind MassD. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

RWU has the head to head victory very early on in the year and the Hawks are having a great season, no doubt.  With that being said, Mass Dartmouth has a tougher schedule with better victories under their belt. Mean while Roger Williams lost to Curry.  I agree with the top four in the rankings but I think Mass Dartmouth has to be Fifth in the region. RWU would be close behind MassD.

So a few things...
- Mass Dartmouth has a stronger SOS than Roger Williams
- Roger Williams has a head-to-head win over Mass Dartmouth
- WL is equal

That makes things a push and will force the committee to look at comparable opponents and vRRO. Remember, the vRRO was NOT part of the conversation last week as the data didn't exist.

Why would you have Mass Darthmouth higher than RWU based on the data for last week?

[deiscanton]

Hi Dave. That RWU loss to Curry yesterday has to hurt the Hawks Northeast ranking?

It won't help. The big thing this week is that other data is now in play, like Results vs. Regionally Ranked Opponents (vRRO) that couldn't be used last week. As a result, even with a win or loss, teams will move around anyway.

The loss to Curry hurts the WL% and it is going to hurt comparable numbers. At this point in the season, to keep one's position, winning is the best option. Losing happens and the opponent usually matters less than the fact it was a loss.

To clarify things, Curry beat Roger Williams back in January, in Milton, MA.  The Hawks won the rematch in Bristol, RI yesterday.  The RWU loss to Curry in January would have already been reflected in the Feb. 7 rankings.

[deiscanton]

Results vs RRO

Data to be used for the Feb. 14 rankings

Roger Williams is currently 2-1 vs RRO

Roger Williams (#5 in Northeast)

Lost to Tufts (#3 in Northeast)
Defeated UMass-Dartmouth (#6 in Northeast)
Defeated Conn College (#10 in Northeast)

UMass-Dartmouth is currently 0-3 vs RRO

UMass-Dartmouth (#6 in Northeast)

Lost to Roger Williams (#5 in Northeast)
Lost to Bowdoin (#2 in Northeast)
Lost to Tufts (#3 in Northeast)

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Hi Dave. That RWU loss to Curry yesterday has to hurt the Hawks Northeast ranking?

It won't help. The big thing this week is that other data is now in play, like Results vs. Regionally Ranked Opponents (vRRO) that couldn't be used last week. As a result, even with a win or loss, teams will move around anyway.

The loss to Curry hurts the WL% and it is going to hurt comparable numbers. At this point in the season, to keep one's position, winning is the best option. Losing happens and the opponent usually matters less than the fact it was a loss.

To clarify things, Curry beat Roger Williams back in January, in Milton, MA.  The Hawks won the rematch in Bristol, RI yesterday.  The RWU loss to Curry in January would have already been reflected in the Feb. 7 rankings.

Yes - I had another thought in my head prior and when I saw this quote, I went with it. My later response takes into account Curry game being awhile ago.

[SidelineHero]

RWU has the head to head victory very early on in the year and the Hawks are having a great season, no doubt.  With that being said, Mass Dartmouth has a tougher schedule with better victories under their belt. Mean while Roger Williams lost to Curry.  I agree with the top four in the rankings but I think Mass Dartmouth has to be Fifth in the region. RWU would be close behind MassD.

So a few things...
- Mass Dartmouth has a stronger SOS than Roger Williams
- Roger Williams has a head-to-head win over Mass Dartmouth
- WL is equal

That makes things a push and will force the committee to look at comparable opponents and vRRO. Remember, the vRRO was NOT part of the conversation last week as the data didn't exist.

Why would you have Mass Darthmouth higher than RWU based on the data for last week?

Okay...Why I have Mass Dartmouth ahead of Roger Williams:

1)SOS MassD rank: 44 RWU rank 143

2)Common opponents: RWU vs. Tufts L by 29 (11/17/17)
                                  RWU vs Rhode Island W by 12 (11/26/17)
                                  MassD vs Tufs L by 8 (12/15/17)
                                  MassD vs Rhode Island W by 34 (1/24/18)

3)In Conference record: RWU: 14 - 2
                                   MassD: 12 - 0

4) Record of opponents that each team lost to:  RWU lost to opponents with a combined record of 39 - 29
                                                                     MassD lost to opponents with a combined record of 64 - 7

5)RWU lost to Curry and RIC who are both unranked in the Northeast region.  MassD has only lost to teams that were regionally ranked.  In fact MassD has losses to Tufts and Bowdoin who are top ten in the national rankings.

6)Eyeball test....MassD is better.

[deiscanton]

RWU has the head to head victory very early on in the year and the Hawks are having a great season, no doubt.  With that being said, Mass Dartmouth has a tougher schedule with better victories under their belt. Mean while Roger Williams lost to Curry.  I agree with the top four in the rankings but I think Mass Dartmouth has to be Fifth in the region. RWU would be close behind MassD.

So a few things...
- Mass Dartmouth has a stronger SOS than Roger Williams
- Roger Williams has a head-to-head win over Mass Dartmouth
- WL is equal

That makes things a push and will force the committee to look at comparable opponents and vRRO. Remember, the vRRO was NOT part of the conversation last week as the data didn't exist.

Why would you have Mass Darthmouth higher than RWU based on the data for last week?

Okay...Why I have Mass Dartmouth ahead of Roger Williams:

1)SOS MassD rank: 44 RWU rank 143

2)Common opponents: RWU vs. Tufts L by 29 (11/17/17)
                                  RWU vs Rhode Island W by 12 (11/26/17)
                                  MassD vs Tufs L by 8 (12/15/17)
                                  MassD vs Rhode Island W by 34 (1/24/18)

3)In Conference record: RWU: 14 - 2
                                   MassD: 12 - 0

4) Record of opponents that each team lost to:  RWU lost to opponents with a combined record of 39 - 29
                                                                     MassD lost to opponents with a combined record of 64 - 7

5)RWU lost to Curry and RIC who are both unranked in the Northeast region.  MassD has only lost to teams that were regionally ranked.  In fact MassD has losses to Tufts and Bowdoin who are top ten in the national rankings.

6)Eyeball test....MassD is better.

Just a reminder--

DIII Primary selection criteria contains the following things, and these things only (not in priority order)

1.). DIII Win/loss percentage
2.). DIII Strength of schedule
3.). Results in DIII Head to Head competition
4.). Results vs DIII common opponents
5.). Results vs DIII teams ranked by the DIII Women's Basketball Committee.  For selection purposes, ranked teams are those teams appearing in the final regional rankings, and the rankings immediately preceding the final rankings.

If a decision cannot be made by the primary criteria, we go to the secondary criteria-- (not in priority order).

1.). Non DIII Win Loss percentage (this includes 1st and 2nd year provisional and reclassifying opponents.)
2.). Results vs common non DIII opponents
3.). Non-conference strength of schedule

In addition, the DIII Women's Basketball Committee can take additional advice and information from the regional advisory committees to the extent that the primary and secondary criteria support this information and/or advice.

Coaches polls and/or any outside polls or rankings are not used as selection criteria by the DIII Women's Basketball Committee.  Neither is the DI eyeball test.

I hate it when people try to use DI selection criteria or outside information or make up their own criteria to come up with an answer that they want to get.

Roger Williams beat UMass Dartmouth on the court.  The committee got it right in week 1.

Also--

Roger Williams defeated RI College in non-conf play.

Roger Williams losses were:

1.). At Tufts
2.). At Univ of New England (RWU won rematch)
3.). At Curry (RWU won rematch)

UMass Dartmouth losses were:

1.). at Roger Williams
2.). vs Tufts
3.). vs Bowdoin

So as to common opponents, both teams lost to Tufts and defeated RI College.

Roger Williams got correctly ranked ahead of UMass-Dartmouth in the Feb. 7 rankings, based on the head to head win.

[deiscanton]

BTW, why are UMass Dartmouth supporters even arguing about their position in the Week 1 regional rankings?  The Corsairs are definitely good enough to win the Little East tournament-- UMass-Dartmouth even has home court advantage.

Go out and win the conference tournament, and you will not have to worry about the selection committee.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

RWU has the head to head victory very early on in the year and the Hawks are having a great season, no doubt.  With that being said, Mass Dartmouth has a tougher schedule with better victories under their belt. Mean while Roger Williams lost to Curry.  I agree with the top four in the rankings but I think Mass Dartmouth has to be Fifth in the region. RWU would be close behind MassD.

So a few things...
- Mass Dartmouth has a stronger SOS than Roger Williams
- Roger Williams has a head-to-head win over Mass Dartmouth
- WL is equal

That makes things a push and will force the committee to look at comparable opponents and vRRO. Remember, the vRRO was NOT part of the conversation last week as the data didn't exist.

Why would you have Mass Darthmouth higher than RWU based on the data for last week?

Okay...Why I have Mass Dartmouth ahead of Roger Williams:

1)SOS MassD rank: 44 RWU rank 143

2)Common opponents: RWU vs. Tufts L by 29 (11/17/17)
                                  RWU vs Rhode Island W by 12 (11/26/17)
                                  MassD vs Tufs L by 8 (12/15/17)
                                  MassD vs Rhode Island W by 34 (1/24/18)

3)In Conference record: RWU: 14 - 2
                                   MassD: 12 - 0

4) Record of opponents that each team lost to:  RWU lost to opponents with a combined record of 39 - 29
                                                                     MassD lost to opponents with a combined record of 64 - 7

5)RWU lost to Curry and RIC who are both unranked in the Northeast region.  MassD has only lost to teams that were regionally ranked.  In fact MassD has losses to Tufts and Bowdoin who are top ten in the national rankings.

6)Eyeball test....MassD is better.

As deiscanton has already explained, we can eliminate numbers 3, 4, and at least 6 in your criteria from the conversation for regional rankings. They are not part of the conversation.

As for 1 - the "rank" doesn't matter. The "number" matters. I already said, UMD has the edge there.

As for 2 - common opponents is basically a wash. Not sure the committee is going to go too deep into that since they have wins and losses against the same squads.

Again... 3, doesn't matter. We aren't going to get into comparing conferences and thus why that idea is not part of the criteria.

4 - the committee might dive this deep, but I am not sure they will. The only way they might is when talking "results" versus Regionally Ranked opponents... but that's where it ends. The committee is fully aware of who the teams they play are, but only will go direct in comparison on actual compared opponents. The SOS takes care of the rest.

5 - This isn't an item that was part of the first week's regional rankings, so using it to make your argument for the first week's isn't relevant. Results versus Regionally Ranked Opponents (vRRO) is taken into account this week for the first time. You couldn't even compile that data until the first regional rankings were released, anyway. Thus why it isn't a factor until the RACs meet Tuesday and the national committee chats on Wednesday.

BTW - in 2 you point out that RWU beat RIC... but than in 5 you say RWU lost to RIC. Nope. They beat RIC. Did you mean UNE?

The irony of your argument in 5 is "UMD has only lost to teams who are regionally ranked" which happens to include a head-to-head loss to RWU. Your argument only works because RWU is regionally ranked, ahead of UMD.

Also, wins matter as much as losses especially in DIII. vRRO is "results" and not just wins, losses, WL%, etc.

Oh... and we aren't even going to go into 6 and the eye test. Welcome to DIII... the eye test isn't part of this. If you would like to include the eye test, feel free to enjoy DI.

You may want to read this article on D3hoops.com last week: http://www.d3hoops.com/columns/around-the-nation/2017-18/ncaa-tournament-committees. It is very helpful to understand how things work. You are also welcome to click on the Hoopsville Marathon link early in that article. The first interview that day was with the national committee chair Bobbi Morgan.

[7express]

Dartmouth is far & away the best team in the conference so they handle their business and wrap up the auto bid and not have to leave it in the hands of Indianapolis.

[7express]

Dartmouth has locked up the 1 seed in the upcoming LEC tournament, Boston can't finish lower than 3rd, USM can't finish lower than 4th and I believe Eastern has locked up the 4 seed (they can still tie USM but I'm pretty sure USM wins the tiebreaker).  All 4 will be hosting quarterfinal games and all 4 will be in the semifinals more than likely.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Dartmouth is far & away the best team in the conference so they handle their business and wrap up the auto bid and not have to leave it in the hands of Indianapolis.

Luckily for everyone, Indianapolis has nothing to do with the selections.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

New women's regional rankings: http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2018/02/women-regional-rankings-second