MBB: General Mid-Atlantic Conversation

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

CCHoopster - I was at the game and tweeting accordingly - it was the second best game I saw this season (in person).

Messiah isn't fading away... they are a really good basketball and incredibly well coached. As one coach recently pointed out to me (and I noticed), they will be running a play on offense and halfway through that play will change the play call for an opportunity. I didn't see them come out of timeouts with a wasted possession or defensive opportunity, they move the ball so well it's amazing, they are stout defensively, and they are incredibly well disciplined (neither team had anyone in foul trouble halfway through the first overtime). Messiah and Stevenson will battle it out for the conference regular season and tournament championship and if they both play well and continue winning... they will both be in the NCAA tournament with maybe one of them hosting (both SOS numbers should be very good).

I have had the same feeling about Stevenson on the road you did until I looked at it better.

- Last season they weren't that good finishing the season 10-5 at home and 6-5 on the road. That included a 4-5 record at home and a 5-4 record on the road in the conference (5-5 counting the first round of the conference tournament).
- This season the Mustangs are so far 6-1 at home and 5-2 on the road (including neutral games) including 4-0 in the conference at home and 2-1 on the road... a very remarkable improvement. In fact, going back to January 28 last season the Mustangs have only lost four games on the road of the eleven they have played.

I think Stevenson is starting to prove they can win on the road. The Albright loss was certainly eyebrow raising, but that is a very well coached team that seems to be figuring things out right now. The other loss was to Oglethorpe who has lost just one game this season, it was a one-point loss, and the Stormy Petrels are now ranked 24th.

As for the CAC... one of them may move out of the official rankings, but they will be close. Thus if a lot of teams are taken from the Mid-Atlantic as at-large bids a fourth CAC team could be sitting at the table near the end of the process.

I think the Mid-Atlantic will see more teams in the NCAA tournament this season than in recent memory. The Atlantic and East Regions just don't have a lot of teams if any that will get at-large bids eliminating some of the eight contenders at the table each round. Obviously it also depends on how many upsets take place around the country in that last week.

Here is what I can say with confidence assuming the trends with teams continues:

- CSAC and Centennial will only get one team in the NCAA tournament as long as Cabrini and Dickinson win their tournaments. Those conferences get two teams in if Cabrini and Dickinson lose - at least Cabrini would be a national bubble bursting loss.
- MAC Freedom will get just one team in... period.
- Landmark potentially could get two teams in, but only if the top of the conference buttons things up and doesn't take any bad losses here on out. Those two teams would be Juniata and Scranton.
- MAC Commonwealth will probably get two teams in baring an upset (Messiah and Stevenson), but if there is an upset of one of those teams before the championship game... a third team from the conference getting in will depend on how many bubble-bursting upsets take place around the country.
- CAC could get three teams in the tournament (St. Mary's, Wesley, Mary Washington) and potentially will have a fourth (Christopher Newport) sitting at the table to be considered late in the process. (Ironically, CNU's move to the Mid-Atlantic probably was seen as being beneficial for at-large chances for them because they were leaving a crowded South Region. However, their first year in the Mid-Atlantic has revealed a very crowded region as well.)

Of course... ALL of this could change as we still have six weeks of basketball to play in the regular season.

[CCHoopster]

Great reply, Dave thanks! CNU certainly is realizing the depth of the Mid Atlantic. That's not to say they can't get hot and reel off a bunch of wins. Teams will beat each other at the top of the CAC. The same can be said about the MACC. I agree they are the two conferences who will be represented by multiple teams.

Six weeks can help and hurt a lot of teams post-season chances. The teams who should be there will win between now and then. The teams who have just got off to hot starts will show if they can't sustain success and can stay healthy!

[Swish3]

CNU's struggling right now, but I look for them to regain their early season form and make a run at the regular season championship.

GO CAPS!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Great reply, Dave thanks! CNU certainly is realizing the depth of the Mid Atlantic. That's not to say they can't get hot and reel off a bunch of wins. Teams will beat each other at the top of the CAC. The same can be said about the MACC. I agree they are the two conferences who will be represented by multiple teams.

Six weeks can help and hurt a lot of teams post-season chances. The teams who should be there will win between now and then. The teams who have just got off to hot starts will show if they can't sustain success and can stay healthy!

Let's be honest... the Mid-Atlantic has not been this deep in a very long time. I am indicating that CNU's move happened to be at the worst timing wise... since if they were in last year or the year before, etc... it wouldn't have been as deep.

[Charles]

CCHoopster - I was at the game and tweeting accordingly - it was the second best game I saw this season (in person).

Messiah isn't fading away... they are a really good basketball and incredibly well coached. As one coach recently pointed out to me (and I noticed), they will be running a play on offense and halfway through that play will change the play call for an opportunity. I didn't see them come out of timeouts with a wasted possession or defensive opportunity, they move the ball so well it's amazing, they are stout defensively, and they are incredibly well disciplined (neither team had anyone in foul trouble halfway through the first overtime). Messiah and Stevenson will battle it out for the conference regular season and tournament championship and if they both play well and continue winning... they will both be in the NCAA tournament with maybe one of them hosting (both SOS numbers should be very good).

I have had the same feeling about Stevenson on the road you did until I looked at it better.

- Last season they weren't that good finishing the season 10-5 at home and 6-5 on the road. That included a 4-5 record at home and a 5-4 record on the road in the conference (5-5 counting the first round of the conference tournament).
- This season the Mustangs are so far 6-1 at home and 5-2 on the road (including neutral games) including 4-0 in the conference at home and 2-1 on the road... a very remarkable improvement. In fact, going back to January 28 last season the Mustangs have only lost four games on the road of the eleven they have played.

I think Stevenson is starting to prove they can win on the road. The Albright loss was certainly eyebrow raising, but that is a very well coached team that seems to be figuring things out right now. The other loss was to Oglethorpe who has lost just one game this season, it was a one-point loss, and the Stormy Petrels are now ranked 24th.

As for the CAC... one of them may move out of the official rankings, but they will be close. Thus if a lot of teams are taken from the Mid-Atlantic as at-large bids a fourth CAC team could be sitting at the table near the end of the process.

I think the Mid-Atlantic will see more teams in the NCAA tournament this season than in recent memory. The Atlantic and East Regions just don't have a lot of teams if any that will get at-large bids eliminating some of the eight contenders at the table each round. Obviously it also depends on how many upsets take place around the country in that last week.

Here is what I can say with confidence assuming the trends with teams continues:

- CSAC and Centennial will only get one team in the NCAA tournament as long as Cabrini and Dickinson win their tournaments. Those conferences get two teams in if Cabrini and Dickinson lose - at least Cabrini would be a national bubble bursting loss.
- MAC Freedom will get just one team in... period.
- Landmark potentially could get two teams in, but only if the top of the conference buttons things up and doesn't take any bad losses here on out. Those two teams would be Juniata and Scranton.- MAC Commonwealth will probably get two teams in baring an upset (Messiah and Stevenson), but if there is an upset of one of those teams before the championship game... a third team from the conference getting in will depend on how many bubble-bursting upsets take place around the country.
- CAC could get three teams in the tournament (St. Mary's, Wesley, Mary Washington) and potentially will have a fourth (Christopher Newport) sitting at the table to be considered late in the process. (Ironically, CNU's move to the Mid-Atlantic probably was seen as being beneficial for at-large chances for them because they were leaving a crowded South Region. However, their first year in the Mid-Atlantic has revealed a very crowded region as well.)

Of course... ALL of this could change as we still have six weeks of basketball to play in the regular season.

Didn't Catholic just thump Juniata on their home court and Scranton already has 2 in conference home losses?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yes... but doesn't change my opinion. Catholic could be a sleeper... but they have also struggled and are not in a position to get into the NCAA tournament without winning the conference.

[Charles]

Yes... but doesn't change my opinion. Catholic could be a sleeper... but they have also struggled and are not in a position to get into the NCAA tournament without winning the conference.

I would think at this point only the conference winner may earn a spot. SOS for Scranton and Juniata is low compared to the tough schedule Catholic has played. Still alot of time left in conference play however. Looking for Goucher to host the conference tournament

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Charles - the SOS numbers are incomplete and remember CUA's tough schedule actually helps Juniata, Scranton and the rest of the conference as well (OOWP). Certainly, I wouldn't be surprised if only one team from this conference gets into the tournament, but that will be determined if Juniata, Scranton and even Catholic take too many losses - especially bad ones - between now and the conference tournament.

And Goucher hosting the tournament? That would surprise even me .

[CCHoopster]

Great reply, Dave thanks! CNU certainly is realizing the depth of the Mid Atlantic. That's not to say they can't get hot and reel off a bunch of wins. Teams will beat each other at the top of the CAC. The same can be said about the MACC. I agree they are the two conferences who will be represented by multiple teams.

Six weeks can help and hurt a lot of teams post-season chances. The teams who should be there will win between now and then. The teams who have just got off to hot starts will show if they can't sustain success and can stay healthy!

Let's be honest... the Mid-Atlantic has not been this deep in a very long time. I am indicating that CNU's move happened to be at the worst timing wise... since if they were in last year or the year before, etc... it wouldn't have been as deep.

I perfectly understood your position..... Was just piggybacking!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I should clarify... the Mid-Atlantic Region will have nine teams officially ranked in regional rankings.

[CCHoopster]

I should clarify... the Mid-Atlantic Region will have nine teams officially ranked in regional rankings.

Cabrini
Wesley
Mary Wash
Messiah
Dickinson
St. Mary's
Stevenson
McDaniel
CNU

I'm not very good at these just a fun guess.

[ronk]

My revised RRs after last weeek's action:
1. Cabrini
2. Wesley
3. Mary Washington
4. Dickinson
5. Messiah
6. Scranton
7. Stevenson
8. St. Mary's
9. Christopher Newport
10. McDaniel

At the moment barring conference tourney upsets, MId-Atlantic Pool C candidates, look like probably 2 of CAC and Stevenson/Messiah loser and possibly, McDaniel, Scranton, Juniata 

[CCHoopster]

My revised RRs after last weeek's action:
1. Cabrini
2. Wesley
3. Mary Washington
4. Dickinson
5. Messiah
6. Scranton
7. Stevenson
8. St. Mary's
9. Christopher Newport
10. McDaniel

At the moment barring conference tourney upsets, MId-Atlantic Pool C candidates, look like probably 2 of CAC and Stevenson/Messiah loser and possibly, McDaniel, Scranton, Juniata

Well after last night I think We can move Dickinson and certainly Stevenson down (Stevenson out of top 9 for me). Messiah plays tonight and Saturday has a good slate of games. Should be interesting to see what these teams do over the weekend. After last night:

Cabrini
Wesley
Mary Wash
Messiah
St. Mary's
Dickinson
McDaniel
Scranton
CNU
---------
Stevenson-FnM-Junaita-Catholic Knocking on the door. In no order here.

[NEPAFAN]

Scranton plays Catholic this Saturday. Should be a good game and help flush out where these two teams sit.

[Charles]

Scranton plays Catholic this Saturday. Should be a good game and help flush out where these two teams sit.

thinking Catholic and Scranton will play 3 times this year.