MBB: General Mid-Atlantic Conversation

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It was a crazy week in basketball not only on the court, but off it as well. Pat Coleman joins me to talk about two interesting coaching moves and what the last two weeks of the regular season has in store for everyone.

We will also talk to Baptist Bible MBB head coach Mike Show fresh off the Defender's upset win over #2 Cabrini along with the following guests:

- #25 Texas-Tyler WBB coach Kevin Baker
- Castleton State WBB coach Tim Barrett
- #7 Amherst MBB coach Dave Hixon
- Amherst super-fan Mike Wohl (we hope!)
- Rose-Hulman MBB Jim Shaw
- #21 Randolph-Macon MBB coach Nathan Davis

Show starts at 7 PM EST and will run at least 2:30 tonight.

You can tune in here: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2013-14/feb16

You can also follow us on social media
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Thanks and enjoy the show!

[CCHoopster]

Stab at the Regional Rankings (probably way off, just a guess)

Scranton
Cabrini
Wesley
Dickinson
Messiah
McDaniel
St. Mary's
Mary Wash
Alvernia

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Just because Cabrini lost doesn't necessarily mean they will fall a spot. Also the RRO comes into play and Cabrini has at least three games there that are all wins. They also have a head-to-head win over Scranton. Basically, the only criteria I see Cabrini not winning against Scranton is SOS and that very well may mean Cabrini stays #1.

[CCHoopster]

Just because Cabrini lost doesn't necessarily mean they will fall a spot. Also the RRO comes into play and Cabrini has at least three games there that are all wins. They also have a head-to-head win over Scranton. Basically, the only criteria I see Cabrini not winning against Scranton is SOS and that very well may mean Cabrini stays #1.

Yes, I thought about that after I posted. Thanks, Dave. I'll find out today how far off I was! Dickinson, Scranton and Cabrini are the only teams I feel confident about winning their conference tourney that are regionally ranked. The Mac Commonwealth looks to be a 3 team race (Messiah, Stevenson, Alvernia) and the CAC has teams from Wesley to Salisbury that wouldn't be a surprise if they were to get hot and win it. Wonder how many Pool C bids the Mid-Atlantic will get?

Dave: You mentioned you wouldn't be surprised if teams with 7-8 losses earned Pool C bids. Does that mean you see teams from the Mid-Atlantic like say a Mary Wash, St Mary's or a Messiah earning Pool C bids? I know there's a lot of hoops to play, excited for playoff time!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yes... I certainly do think that trio has a chance at getting at-large bids. The key here is because all games count this year, more losses are automatically on the resume for teams when being considered (primary criteria). Also, because of the number of great conference races and other factors, there are a lot of teams with more losses than many would remember in the past. So I do see teams with eight losses getting at-large bids this season and I think that trio certainly has a legitimate chance IF they don't win their conference AQs (SMC would be the one I am assuming won't win the AQ).

[CardsFan]

Have to say I'm a little surprised to see Scranton on top. Cabrini beat them head-to-head and Cabrini was gonna pick up a loss with how screwed up their schedule has been. I know this could change in a week, but still surprised. Scranton deserves to be in the NCAA whether they AQ or not. Also surprised not to see St. Marys ranked.

[Swish3]

Given how tough the CAC is this year, at least the top three from that conference should be in the regional rankings....St. Mary's is solid, while CNU, Marymount and Salisbury aren't far behind.

[CCHoopster]

How much weight do conference vs non-conference losses have over one other? Take Mary Washington and Messiah for an example.

Mary Wash- 6-1 Non conference- only loss coming to Hampton Sydney and were 14-4 in arguably the toughest Mid-Atlantic conference with no real bad losses in conference. 20-5 overall record.

Messiah- 6-0 non conference- 13-5 in conference in maybe the deepest conference in Mid-Atlantic and some would say the toughest to play 18 games in because of its depth.  19-5 overall. 1 bad loss to Lycoming where it looks like they just did not show up. Lost on a buzzer beater, in 2 OT's, and two 2 possession games, looking back at their schedule.

I guess my question stems from where someone posted about a teams losses hurting them because they were in conference losses. But if your losses are in conference vs playoff teams who are regionally ranked, are they really bad losses? Do they hurt more just because their conference games? I could see if you had 5 losses in a weaker conference (MAC Freedom, Landmark) it hurting but if you lose games on the road in conference to teams in your conference playoffs are they really bad losses? Could Scranton come away with only 1-3 conference losses in the MACC or CAC? (Not knocking Scranton, they are terrific). Im just using these two schools as examples since they seemed to fit with strong non conference records and losses coming from playoff teams in their league (except Messiahs Lyco loss).

I think both these teams should make the NCAA's based on how things work this year and more teams having losses with all games being in region. Both have had losses coming down the final 4 week stretch but that can't discredit their great starts the first 6-8 weeks. Just hoping to some Pool C bids for the Mid-Atlantic!!! Don't care who or what conference, just a strong showing for the region! Obviously they need teams like Scranton, Cabrini, Wesley, Dickinson to win the AQ's.

Great week ahead

[CardsFan]

This is where my frustration with D3 comes in. I completely understand that Regional Rankings are the way that teams are eventually positioned for NCAA spots, but I sometimes feel that those numbers leave too much out. Unlike DI, a 1-point loss on the road never seems to be a good thing, even if it comes against a good team. It just shows up as a loss, whether it's to a regionally ranked team or not.
A person could look at Scranton losing to USMMA and Juniata and say those are "bad losses." However, Juniata is the best defensive team in the conference and USMMA presents serious match-up problems for Scranton. I don't really see those as bad losses since they came by a total of 4 points, even though in the long run Scranton is clearly better than both of them.

It would be impossible to have a more nuanced way of looking at NCAA selection since there isn't a great way to compare teams from across the country because teams don't play as much nationally as they do in DI, for obvious reasons. I just wonder if sometimes too much emphasis is placed on games against regionally ranked teams. There are a lot of teams out there that are very good, but not regionally ranked and so losing to them looks bad.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

You need to understand, the criteria reads "results" and such... so they can look at the point spread and such and the regional committees are tasked with understanding their regions to understand the results. So, believe it or not... a lot of what you are describing is taking into account. However, SOS and other criteria are also important and may outweigh what you think is important.

[CardsFan]

You need to understand, the criteria reads "results" and such... so they can look at the point spread and such and the regional committees are tasked with understanding their regions to understand the results. So, believe it or not... a lot of what you are describing is taking into account. However, SOS and other criteria are also important and may outweigh what you think is important.

I see. I guess I'm wondering whether the emphasis is more on just playing a tough schedule or actually beating the tough teams. I know I'm stepping out of region here, but take a team like Emory. They have a terrific SOS, but only 1 win over a ranked opponent. Do they get bumped up in the at-large pecking order just because they've played a tough schedule over a team with a SOS maybe in the .550 range with 2-3 wins over ranked opponents? I know they're challenged on a pretty consistent basis in the UAA, just wondering....

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Every team, every case, every situation is evaluated individually, so there is no hard and fast rule as to what is more important than other items in a general sense.

[mailsy]

Current Regional Rankings. Cavaliers move back to number 1.

Mid-Atlantic - NCAA data sheet
1   Cabrini   23-1   23-1
2   Scranton   22-3   22-3
3   Wesley   20-2   22-2
4   Dickinson   20-5   20-5
5   Stevenson   18-7   18-7
6   Messiah   19-5   19-5
7   Alvernia   18-7   18-7
8   Mary Washington   18-5   20-5
9   St. Mary's (Md.)   15-7   18-7

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The entire list: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2014/02/26/2014-ncaa-regional-rankings-week-3/

[CNU85]

Every team, every case, every situation is evaluated individually, so there is no hard and fast rule as to what is more important than other items in a general sense.

That's where the "and such" comes in to play.