Mid-East Region 2014

[Spence]

Trying to make some sense of a very jumbled picture at the top of the region.

The way I'm seeing it, there's at least a small separation between the top 5 and other good but just not as good teams. That's John Carroll, Marietta, Case Western, Baldwin-Wallace and Heidelberg. There are other good teams like Allegheny, Adrian and Ohio Northern, but they don't have the same schedule strength to be able to say as much as definitively as that top 5.

Fortunately, there have already been a lot of meetings between those top 5 teams, and so it should be obvious that there's value in looking at those.

I didn't look at scores or pitching matchups. Just who did you play and where, and what was the result. There weren't any real individual data points that argues against ordering by winning percentage -- JCU swept BW which beat Case; Marietta is 2-1 against Case. Everything else is a split.

And so the long version of that previous sentence:

John Carroll (3-1): 1-1 vs. Case Western (L at neutral site; W at home), 2-0 vs. BW.
That sweep of BW may be the most significant data point in the entire region. It is the only sweep in the mini-league. Right now they have no road wins (in no attempts) but those opportunities wil come, starting this week.
Remaining on the schedule: DH at Heidelberg, DH at Marietta, at Case Western.

Marietta (4-3): 2-1 vs. Case Western (W at neutral; 1-1 at Case), 1-1 vs. BW, 1-1 at Heide.
Of primary significance here is the road splits against Case and Heidelberg. A home split against BW keeps them from ranking above JCU in the mini-league.
Remaining on the schedule: DH vs. JCU.

Heidelberg (3-3): 1-1 vs. BW (neutral site), 1-1 vs. Case, 1-1 vs. MC.
Not much to say. Two home splits and no data points in true road games. Despite the home-road split, no real advantages forged among the group, but no huge black marks against either.
Remaining on the schedule: DH vs. JCU, at Case Western.

Baldwin-Wallace (3-4): 1-1 vs. Heide (neutral site), 1-1 at MC, 1-0 vs. Case, 0-2 at JCU.
The flipside of that JCU sweep. Unfortunately the return game of the Case series was wiped out. 1-0 is nice, but 2-0 or 1-1 would tell us a lot more. Splits against Berg at neutral and in Marietta are noteworthy, but being swept by John Carroll is, again, the most significant data point. Could see arguments for anywhere between 2nd and 5th.
Remaining on the schedule: none. (maybe a makeup at Case?)

Case Western Reserve (4-6): 1-1 vs. JCU (W at neutral, L at JCU), 1-1 at Heide, 1-2 vs. Marietta (L at neutral, 1-1 at home), 0-1 vs. BW.
Case has the most games against the other contenders, but also has no conference games in their northern schedule, so I think those two factors kind of even out. Really just shows how tough this group is because you could say they've had advantage on John Carroll and Heidelberg, and they can further cement that in meetings later in the year, but the worst overall record among the group.
Remaining on the schedule: vs. Heidelberg, vs. John Carroll, (makeup vs. BW?)

[ADL70]

Since the JCU game was moved from Tues to Thurs, it's six games in five days.

Shields is on an eleven innings straight shutout streak, but he pitched on Weds.  His last start was on three days rest though.

Johnstone is rested, but has been hit or miss this season, mostly hit (in the bad sense of the word).  He's only had two good starts out of seven.

Bethany's one and two pitched yesterday.

Oh, and Spence, Rossman pitched yesterday for the first time in ten days.  2 IP  5 H  1 ER. 

For the season 5 G  7.1 IP  11 H  1 R/ER  4 BB  4 K  1.23 ERA

[Spence]

Is there a reason you called specific attention to that? 

I don't think anyone is going to feel sorry for Case pitching-wise considering they can set up their staff however they want up north since they don't have conference games.

[ADL70]

Is there a reason you called specific attention to that? 

I don't think anyone is going to feel sorry for Case pitching-wise considering they can set up their staff however they want up north since they don't have conference games.

If you are referring to Rossman, I thought you had expressed interest in him earlier.

[Spence]

I just thought he looked an interesting prospect coming into the year.

[motorman]

Watch out ADL70, don't dare give a reason for something happening or Spence will suddenly start firebombing your every post like he does to me. Good thing he doesn't have any input on the NCAA regional rankings since his are so screwy. News flash, road wins or home losses are not any of the criteria for regional rankings. Other than batting last, I fail to see any significant home field advantage, unless you get an appreciable dose of home cooking from the blue.

On the OAC thread he ridicules me for my view that the series vs the third place team (Marietta) is the most important so far of the season yet he ranks that 3rd place team higher than the co-leaders (Heidelberg) who have lost half as many games (5 vs 10) to teams with a winning percentage approximately .200 higher than those Marietta has lost to, including sub .500 teams (Mt. Aloysius, Muskingum, and Montclair St)

Since the 1st regional rankings are still at least a week away, this is kind of silly anyway but if I were to venture a ranking it would be:

1. Heidelberg
2. Case
3. John Carroll
4. Marietta
5. Adrian
6. Ohio Northern
7. Pitt-Bradford

[Spence]

Watch out ADL70, don't dare give a reason for something happening or Spence will suddenly start firebombing your every post like he does to me.

Is there really a need for this?

[Spence]

News flash, road wins or home losses are not any of the criteria for regional rankings. Other than batting last, I fail to see any significant home field advantage, unless you get an appreciable dose of home cooking from the blue.

JCU swept BW, BW beat Case, everything else was a split. How tough is that to understand? Nothing to do with home/road even ends up mattering right now because it's all straightforward. But I don't necessarily agree with your assertion that it never is considered.

The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule

One could argue that part of analyzing is a result is the home-road-neutral component. It used to be far more explicit a factor in figuring SOS, but I think it's presumptuous to say that it doesn't get considered at all by the selection committee. Usually vaguely written NCAA guidelines are such for a reason.

One thing we know is important, because they specifically list it, is record against common opponents -- which is exactly what I've done in the previous post for this group of teams. Given that the SOS of all 5 teams is very strong, it seems barely possible that what they've done against each other might matter. Call me crazy.

On the OAC thread he ridicules me for my view that the series vs the third place team (Marietta) is the most important so far of the season yet he ranks that 3rd place team higher than the co-leaders (Heidelberg) who have lost half as many games (5 vs 10) to teams with a winning percentage approximately .200 higher than those Marietta has lost to, including sub .500 teams (Mt. Aloysius, Muskingum, and Montclair St)

You obviously missed the point of what I did. It wasn't, strictly speaking, a regional ranking. I didn't ridicule anything, by the way. If you think that's what that was, you should probably just give up. I thought it was a rather surprising sign of profound respect that you considered that DH the most important games of the season even though Marietta is in 3rd, when your opponent 3 days later is in 1st. All I did was state that. If you think that's cause for ridicule, then that issue is yours.

Since the 1st regional rankings are still at least a week away, this is kind of silly anyway but if I were to venture a ranking it would be:

1. Heidelberg
2. Case
3. John Carroll
4. Marietta
5. Adrian
6. Ohio Northern
7. Pitt-Bradford

Interesting. I would be pretty surprised if Baldwin-Wallace isn't regionally ranked unless they mess up between now and then. If they had split rather than lost 2 to JCU, there would be a pretty compelling case for them to be top. Easy to forget, but 4 of their losses are to non D-III, and so won't be considered in rankings unless all the primary criteria fails to differentiate (I'd call that pretty unlikely).

[motorman]

Make you a deal Spence. You lay off me and I will lay off you. Stop stalking me and responding to my every post on every thread I ever post on.

Maybe I should have said most important games so far, but even though it is only mid April, the season is 70% over (28/40). Games this week vs JCU are huge too but I feel Berg has an advantage with pitchers they have going.

[Spence]

You vastly overestimate your importance to me. You just happen to post things which demand a response on threads I follow. I don't care if you "lay off me" or not. I find it funny that you think I do.

[motorman]

You asked if this was necessary. You are the one who tries to goad me into a response. Evidently you cant live without my attention. You are the one who started getting personal with the rant about me watching cable tv. You are the one who has had an inappropriate post deleted by a moderator on the NCAC thread. 

I can have a rational discussion about baseball, which you said you dont like cause it is too slow. is someone holding you hostage and making you post about it. can we get you some help?

I thought your post about the region was in ranking order, my mistake. I thought BW and ONU were a tossup and BW will probably move ahead as the schedule moves forward. but you cant regionally rank a team in 3rd or tied for 4th ahead of the conferences co leaders unless they have a drastically better overall record which none of them do. Like I told the person who posted about aggregate scores they still only count as 1 win and 1 loss no matter the run total or where the game was played. Before this weekend the winning percentage of the 9 teams that beat Marietta was about .585 and the 4 teams that beat Berg was about .780. Glad to see that you at last grudgingly gave them some respect.

[Spence]

You asked if this was necessary.

You went out of your way to put me in a post where really there was no need to do so *at all*. And then you whine about more or less anything I do? LOL logic doesn't live at your address.

You are the one who tries to goad me into a response. Evidently you cant live without my attention.

Oh for pete's sake would you stop this bullcrap. I really wish I could tell you what I think of you and how little I want your attention. But I've got other things and interests to consider.

You are the one who started getting personal with the rant about me watching cable tv. You are the one who has had an inappropriate post deleted by a moderator on the NCAC thread. 

Yes, and I know why as well. Given the interests and objectives in play, I understood the decision to do so, and it was probably the best for everyone, even though I wouldn't have deleted it myself.

I can have a rational discussion about baseball, which you said you dont like cause it is too slow.

I said I don't like it *ON TV*, which is really not that uncommon. A lot of people don't watch a lot of baseball on TV but like going to the ballpark. You don't really do very well with nuance in general, it seems.

I thought your post about the region was in ranking order, my mistake. I thought BW and ONU were a tossup and BW will probably move ahead as the schedule moves forward. but you cant regionally rank a team in 3rd or tied for 4th ahead of the conferences co leaders unless they have a drastically better overall record which none of them do.

I'm pretty sure that's not in the selection criteria. Actually I know it isn't, because it's actually happened before in the final selections. Check out last year's NJAC.

Like I told the person who posted about aggregate scores they still only count as 1 win and 1 loss no matter the run total or where the game was played.

Doesn't mean that no other information can be gleaned from a score or set of scores. I agree that for the NCAA the aggregate score doesn't matter, but no one said the only thing anyone could mention or care about is what the NCAA cares about. Again, nuance, and you failing to appreciate it.

Before this weekend the winning percentage of the 9 teams that beat Marietta was about .585 and the 4 teams that beat Berg was about .780. Glad to see that you at last grudgingly gave them some respect.

You want respect? Do something to earn it. You don't get trophies for home splits in April.

Hey, I get the disappointment and frustration. In recruiting you were sold that Heidelberg was the best program in the region and was one step away from a national championship and since then all you've seen is order restored to the conference and region to the tune of two national titles and a regional runner-up finish for the Etta Express. Last year you were .500 and didn't make the conference tournament.

That's tough, I mean I guess: I don't really know; we've never not made the OAC tournament since it went to 4 teams, and haven't had a .500 or below season since Eisenhower's first term. But it seems like it would be disappointing.

[motorman]

Heidelberg moves up to #10 and Case moves up to #18 in this week's poll while Marietta still among ORV. Guess I am not the only one not blown away by the road split.

[motorman]

Berg #9 in latest ABCA poll, Case #19. Marietta dropped out of top 30, 12 points ahead of BW in ORV.

[Spence]

Heidelberg moves up to #10 and Case moves up to #18 in this week's poll while Marietta still among ORV. Guess I am not the only one not blown away by the road split.

You're too new to remember/know what happened in 2006. Even 2008 is a long time ago to you.