Mid-East Region 2014

[DagarmanSpartan]

If we beat JCU this Tuesday, then we will have taken 2 of 3 from both the #1 seed, and the #3 seed.

In my mind, that should make us no worse than #2.

[EttaFan1]

Marietta has what I would call some "bad losses."  Losing a game to Case/BW/Berg isn't a particularly big deal.  But losses to teams like Mount Aloysisous and Muskingum are what drags down Marietta a little IMO.  Huge series with JCU this weekend.  Not just for OAC purposes, but obviously for their record against regionally ranked opponents.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Wooster and Allegheny being regionally ranked  at 6 and 7 are not going to help either get a pool C. But I am not sure why Wooster is ahead of Allegheny. There is not that much difference in their SOS. Wooster is at 58 and Gheny is at 61.

Any ideas?

[EttaFan1]

Reputation, really.  I would have to go back and compare records against other regionally ranked opponents and such (so I'm being lazy mostly).  Wooster has a few more "names" on the slate, than the gators. 

Really the weekend series between them could sort these two out. 

[Pops33]

In looking at the schedules, Wooster has beaten #2 Webster (28-4), Others Receiveing Votes - Salem State  (25-12), nationally known Johns Hopkins (20-13) and little known Bethel who is 17-6.  Allegheny has beaten #16 CWRU but none of their other opponents appear in the poll or as "Other Receiving Votes", and have no other national powers on their schedule. 

As EttaFan1 indicated, this weekend will definitely sort things out....unless they split.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Thanks Etta and Pops +1 to you both.

I am really interested to see how this weekend goes between those two.

[Spence]

If we beat JCU this Tuesday, then we will have taken 2 of 3 from both the #1 seed, and the #3 seed.

In my mind, that should make us no worse than #2.

Even though the 2 has beaten you 2 of 3 despite you being able to line up your best starters against the back end of their rotation?

I thought Case people were smart...

[Spence]

Marietta has what I would call some "bad losses."  Losing a game to Case/BW/Berg isn't a particularly big deal.  But losses to teams like Mount Aloysisous and Muskingum are what drags down Marietta a little IMO.  Huge series with JCU this weekend.  Not just for OAC purposes, but obviously for their record against regionally ranked opponents.

See I think of it the other way around. Who have you proven you can beat is more important than what flukey loss do you have.

Marietta plays the toughest schedule in the region and maybe the toughest in the country. When you do that, sometimes you're going to put yourself in a tough spot and maybe drop a game you shouldn't, because there's just no margin for error in your schedule.

[ADL70]

Based on the SoS numbers Marietta's sched isn't significantly tougher than the other top teams in the region, all are right around 0.6, but their W/L % is roughly 0.100 lower than CWRU and 0.150 than Heidelberg.

To date, I count 14 Marietta games vs RR teams, while CWRU has 17.   MC 9-5   CWRU 11-6  4 of CWRU's RR games (3-1) were after the first RR.

H2H MC 2-1.

I can't really argue with MC at #2, but JCU is 5-8 vs RR and W% .150 lower than CWRU, I don't get them at #3.

[ADL70]

If we beat JCU this Tuesday, then we will have taken 2 of 3 from both the #1 seed, and the #3 seed.

In my mind, that should make us no worse than #2.

Even though the 2 has beaten you 2 of 3 despite you being able to line up your best starters against the back end of their rotation?

I thought Case people were smart...

He's in Afghanistan, he has more important things on his mind.

[Spence]

If we beat JCU this Tuesday, then we will have taken 2 of 3 from both the #1 seed, and the #3 seed.

In my mind, that should make us no worse than #2.

Even though the 2 has beaten you 2 of 3 despite you being able to line up your best starters against the back end of their rotation?

I thought Case people were smart...

He's in Afghanistan, he has more important things on his mind.

Fair play to that.

[Spence]

Based on the SoS numbers Marietta's sched isn't significantly tougher than the other top teams in the region, all are right around 0.6, but their W/L % is roughly 0.100 lower than CWRU and 0.150 than Heidelberg.

To date, I count 14 Marietta games vs RR teams, while CWRU has 17.   MC 9-5   CWRU 11-6  4 of CWRU's RR games (3-1) were after the first RR.

H2H MC 2-1.

I can't really argue with MC at #2, but JCU is 5-8 vs RR and W% .150 lower than CWRU, I don't get them at #3.

Well, I don't really know either, but it should take care of itself with Marietta and John Carroll playing today. The thing that makes it hard to know what to do with Case is that they can throw their top arms against midweek pitching for teams that have to plan around conference games. I was actually surprised that Marietta got a road split considering it was 3/5 or so vs. 1/2.

There's quite a bit more separation at the top of the SOS rankings than there is in the middle. MC picked up 2 against LaRoche, so hopefully that'll help make up for having to play Wilmington. You're right that a bunch of Mideast teams have played strong schedules and are also benefitting from having done so in Florida and getting second level points from that.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Ouch!

We needed sweeps against Denison and Oberlin.

Let's hope we can get 3 out of 4, and then win the series with JCU at Progressive Field this coming Tuesday.

[Spence]

Oberlin takes the first against Case.

[Spence]

Upshot: Marietta is the only team with a .500 road record, and the only team with a winning neutral record among the "league". No individual team has a series advantage over Marietta. BW is the only team that has much of an argument since they got a split in Marietta, but that's a 2-game difference in "standings", so it wouldn't matter too much.

Below them, where you play John Carroll seems to be the biggest determining factor of record/ordinal. Heide played them at home and swept, BW played them away and got swept, Case played one away and one neutral and split. Move those around and you can get Heide, BW and Case finishing anywhere. BW only having played one game against these teams at home makes you think maybe they're better than their record.

Marietta (6-3): 2-1 vs. Case Western (W at neutral; 1-1 at Case), 1-1 vs. BW, 1-1 at Heide, 2-0 vs. JCU.
3-1 home, 2-2 away, 1-0 neutral

Heidelberg (5-4): 1-1 vs. BW (neutral site), 1-2 vs. Case (1-1 at home, L away), 1-1 vs. MC. 2-0 vs. JCU
4-2 home, 0-1 away, 1-1 neutral

Case Western Reserve (5-5): 1-1 vs. JCU (W at neutral, L at JCU), 2-1 vs. Heide (1-1 at Heide, W at home), 1-2 vs. Marietta (L at neutral, 1-1 at home), 1-1 vs. BW (each won at home).
3-2 home, 1-2 away, 1-1 neutral
Remaining on the schedule: vs. John Carroll

Baldwin-Wallace (3-4): 1-1 vs. Heide (neutral site), 1-1 at MC, 1-0 vs. Case, 0-2 at JCU.
1-0 home, 1-3 away, 1-1 neutral

John Carroll (3-5): 1-1 vs. Case Western (L at neutral site; W at home), 2-0 vs. BW. 0-2 at Heidelberg, 0-2 at Marietta.
3-0 home, 0-4 away, 0-1 neutral
Remaining on the schedule: at Case Western.