Mid-East Region 2014

[motorman]

So, you disregard the fact that Heidelberg has a higher winning percentage (.806 vs .694) against an almost identical strength of schedule (#6 vs #1) and will have more wins against regionally ranked teams to put Marietta as the #1 team in the region? Seems a little bit of those Marietta blue glasses showing through again. Berg will be 13-6 vs regionally ranked opponents if Manchester is ranked as they should have been last week. Marietta is 11-5. Their better road record against teams in the region is hardly going to be the deciding factor when they split head to head.

[Spence]

I really don't care who is the top ranked team in the region to be honest with you. We won a title in 06 going to the regional as the 3 seed because we kept outhitting a very good Otterbein team and somehow losing anyway (I think Wooster was the 1 seed through some obviously flawed process). Finally overcame them in a spectacular regional championship, beat Jordan Zimmerman in the opener in Appleton and cruised from there. So the seed is pretty well meaningless as long as you're in the regional, which I don't have too many worries about.

I care more about the OAC tournament being in Marietta because it's the best fan experience, and the best player experience. Coach Schaly always said it would be easier to play at neutral site for tournaments and just worry about baseball, but it's not just about him or even his team. So he bid for the regional every year, got lights to try to give Marietta the best chance to continue hosting tournaments in the future...etc.

And now because Heidelberg gave up about 75 runs with their quasi-ace starting the game, there's a decent chance for that to happen, one way or another.

But everything I posted is fact. The record against those teams is what it is, the results are what they are, and really the analysis is pretty straightforward.

By the way, I believe 11-5 is still better than 13-6. Didn't major in math, but pretty sure that's right. Seems like your own numbers undermine your argument. Not that it matters, region vs. out of region is an irrelevant distinction now.

[motorman]

And now because Heidelberg gave up about 75 runs with their quasi-ace starting the game, there's a decent chance for that to happen, one way or another.

But everything I posted is fact. The record against those teams is what it is, the results are what they are, and really the analysis is pretty straightforward.

By the way, I believe 11-5 is still better than 13-6. Didn't major in math, but pretty sure that's right. Seems like your own numbers undermine your argument. Not that it matters, region vs. out of region is an irrelevant distinction now.

You really show your lack of knowledge every time you open your mouth. Berg lost because they gave up 13 unearned runs to a team that is 23-11 and all it did was drop them into a first place tie with Marietta because Marietta's other league loss was at home to 15-17 Muskingum. Can see that you didn't major in math when 19 is "about 75". How about Marietta gives up 13 unearned runs this weekend and see how tough Wilmington can be. You still ignore those facts that are inconvenient to you. 29-7 is better than 25-11. I didn't say their winning percentage against regionally ranked teams was better, I said they won more games against regionally ranked teams. 13 is greater than 11. And I didn't say a thing about in region vs out of region. I said vs regionally ranked teams. That means ALL regions. But you had to fly off the handle to attack what I had to say without really reading what I said.

[Spence]

13 unearned runs? Wow that's even worse than I thought. I'd hate to know the last time Marietta gave up 13 unearned. I did look up the last time we gave up 19...it was as I figured, before your kid committed to Heidelberg. 2008, Otterbein.

If Marietta gives up 13 unearned runs to Wilmington, they deserve nothing. If they give that many unearned up to anyone, they deserve nothing. Hell I'll be disappointed if they give up 13 total runs to Wilmington unless they throw staff games or something. 13 unearned in a game is ridiculous. Even if the defense gives away an extra out or two, pitchers should be able to limit damage better than that.

About 75 was an example of what most normal humans would call hyperbole. Believe me, I knew exactly what the score was most of that game, and who pitched and couldn't get out of the second inning as well. It was announced on the Marietta broadcast about once every three innings (which was one every inning and a half for you all)

You mistake ignoring inconvenient facts with ignoring irrelevant facts.

Enjoy Marietta, maybe on back to back weekends. Remember no outside food is allowed, buy your Twizzlers at the concession stand.

[EttaFan1]

So here is how the regionally ranked teams did last week.

1.  Heidelberg:  Previous record 27-5, this week:  2-2.  Losses to Otterbein and RR4 Case, Wins aganst Dennision and Otterbein.  Now 29-7
2.  Marietta:  Previous Record 22-10, this week:  3-1.  Loss to Forstburg State, Wins against Frostburg, and RR3 JCU, twice.  Now 25-11
3.  JCU:  Previous Record:  18-10  This week: 1-4.  Losses to RR6 Wooster, RR2 Marietta-twice, Dennision.  Wins against Denison.  Now 19-14
4.  Case:  Previous record:  25-7  This week:  5-3.  Losses to RR7 Allegheny, Dennision, Oberlin.  Wins against RR1 Berg, RR5 BW, RR7 Allegheny, Dennision and Oberlin.  Now 30-10
5.  BW:  Previous Record: 19-8  This week:  1-2.  Loses to RR4 Case, Muskingum.  Win against Muskingum Now 20-10
6.  Wooster:  Previous Record: 19-10.  This week: 4-2.  Losses to RR7 Allegheny and Muskingum.  Wins against RR7 Allegheny three times, RR3  JCU
7.  Allegheny:  Previous record: 21-7.  This week:  3-4.  Losses to RR6 Wooster three times, RR4 Case.  Wins against RR6 Wooster, RR4 Case, Fredonia State.  Now 24-11
8.  LaRoche: Previous record: 21-11.  This week: 5-0.  Wins against Waynesburg, Mount Aloysius (2), and Dyouville (2).  Now 26-11
9.  Adrian:  Previous record:  21-7.  This week:  3-1 (in region).  3 wins against Kalamazoo, 1 loss to same, now 24-8.

Others in consideration:  Manchester, currently 23-12, W&J 22-12

A look at the NCAA Sos ranks for the region teams...

1.  Berg: 6
2.  Marietta: 1
3.  JCU: 3
4.  Case: 4
5.  BW: 8
6.  Wooster: 26
7.  Allegheny: 45
8.  LaRoche: 200
9. Adrian:  197

Manchester: 81
W&J: 116

JCU likely drops a few spots, and maybe out of the regional rankings after they were swept by Marietta and lost to Wooster and Denison. 
Berg and Marietta will stay the same. 
Case moves up one.
Wooster moves up
BW drops. 

Allegheny drops out.  Might see W&J or Manchester in the rankings next week. 

My guess on the regional poll for this week:

1.  Berg
2.  Marietta
3.  Case
4.  Wooster
5.  JCU
6.  BW
7.  La Roche
8. Adrian
9.  W&J or Manchester.

Dropping out:  Allegheny

It would be hard to drop JCU or bW completely out of the rankings due to their SOS.  Honestly I hadn't looked at the SOS numbers in a while.  All I can say is WOW.  I'm impressed with the top four OAC teams and Case. 

[Spence]

Does there have to be 9 regionally ranked teams? If Allegheny drops out and the regional committee rep doesn't think another team is good enough to be regionally ranked, can he only rank 8?

[EttaFan1]

I'll admit I haven't followed things at the "national level" as much as I have in season's past.  Additional work responsbilities (until a couple of weeks ago) and a lack of time are primarily the reasons.  I mostly follow mideast stuff as it has the biggest impact on the team I care about the most.

However, over on the national topics there is a pool C thread http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8165.45.  In which, Spence uses a quick and easy method of adding regional Win pct and SOS to get a "combined number" (think OPS) to figure out who is in line for a Pool C bid. 

Using the numbers on the d3baseball.com's SOS page as of 4/28, here it is for the regionally ranked teams in the mideast.

Berg 1.391
Case 1.338 (likely a Pool B)
Marietta 1.308

Adrian 1.266
BW 1.249
Allegheny 1.243
Wooster 1.217
La Roche 1.211
Mount Union 1.202

Ohio Northern 1.171
Anderson 1.186
Manchester 1.173
W&J 1.173
Rose Hulman 1.168
John Carroll 1.166

Spence's supposition is if your win pct + SOS is greater than 1.3, you are in very good shape to get an at large birth to your tournament.  If you are below 1.2, you need to win your tournament.  Everywhere in between puts you squarely on the bubble. 

Using this rationale, as of today: 

Locks:  Case (likely pool B), Berg, and Marietta. 
Bubble Teams:  BW, Adrian, Wooster, Allegheny, La Roche, Mount Union (who will likely NOT make the OAC tournament....Can't imagine they will even be in the discussion).
Better win the tourney:  JCU, ONU (if they get in to the OAC tourney), All of the HCAC and PrAC. 

One bid leagues:  HCAC, PrAC. 

With 6 pool A's, and a likely Pool B, that leaves room for one "in region" pool C birth.  There is a good chance somebody will be sent to another region.   

[Spence]

I agree with you on Mount Union. It's happened before that a team got in with a really mediocre conference performance, but I don't think they're a similar case to that (Ramapo).

The way things are looking, even most of the second group probably won't get in. Right now there are probably 7-8 at-large bids that are more or less up for grabs. Shenandoah will get one, the OAC will get one, the NJAC will get one, Little East most likely gets one. And whichever of Case, Emory or Birmingham don't get a Pool B will get one. So that's 5 gone before the conversation even really gets started.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

If Depauw or Wabash win the Pool A for the NCAC then they may be good candidates to go out to Moline. That is a 4 hour drive for Wabash and a 4.5 for Depauw.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Splitting with Oberlin and Denison in these last two series didn't help.

We definitely need a win over JCU at Progressive to close out the season.

[motorman]

In new poll, Berg drops 1 spot to #8, Case drops 3 spots to #16, Marietta stays at #23.

In my opinion, a 19-14 JCU team should drop out of regional rankings. And that makes it difficult to keep BW too since JCU swept them and is ahead of them in league standings. I think that now the only way OAC gets 3 teams into the tournament is if BW or JCU wins the tournament.

I definitely think Manchester and Washington & Jefferson should be in the regional rankings ahead of BW and JCU.

[EttaFan1]

Motorman, I think you are correct about the three bids for the OAC--namely two pool C bids.  I think the only way this happens is if JCU or BW (assuming BW makes the OAC tourney, which is not assured yet, but a fairly confident assumption) wins the Pool A. 

I've not seen Manchester this season, so I can't speak to how good they are.  JCU and BW are both very good.  W&J is decent but I wouldn't say they are better than JCU or BW.  At the same time, I can see both of them appearing in the rankings at some point as they would be the "likely" Pool A teams from both of those conferences. 

[Spence]

I still think if BW makes the tournament, they're in the conversation. There are really very not gonna be that many bids up for grabs though, so a decent number of conference tournament upsets and it could be that no one on the bubble gets in.

[ADL70]

Splitting with Oberlin and Denison in these last two series didn't help.

We definitely need a win over JCU at Progressive to close out the season.

Postponed to Weds.

[Spence]

Still at the stadium formerly known as Jake?