NESCAC 2014

[Becks]

2014 Roster Sizes
1. Bates - 29 (24, 23, 27, 26)
2. Trinity - 28 (25, 22, 24, 18)
3. Conn - 26 (28, 27, 24, 24)
3. Williams -  26 (27, 27, 23, 24)
5. Bowdoin - 25 (25, 25, 25, 26)
5. Middlebury -  25 (28, 25, 24, 23)
5. Hamilton -  25 (25, 21, 25, 27)
8. Colby - 24 (27, 26, 25, 27)
8. Wes -  24 (26, 22, 23, 25)
10. Amherst - 23 (28, 28, 28, 28)
11 Tufts - 19 (23, 24, 24, 25)

What a difference a year can make. Bates went from having the 2d smallest roster in the league (24) to the biggest ever NESCAC women's roster (29), while Amherst went from having the biggest roster in the league for the past 4 years (28) to having the 2d smallest roster (23). Meanwhile, Tufts continues to shrink, going from the smallest roster in the league last year (23) to the 2d smallest roster of any women's NESCAC team in the last 5 years (19). Better hope those girls stay healthy, Martha. Median roster sized dropped from an all-time high of 26 last year to 25 this year.

Frosh Class Size
1 - Bates - 11
2 - Trinity - 10
3 - Conn - 9
4 - Hamilton - 8
5- Bowdoin - 7
5 - Colby - 7
7 - Middlebury - 5
7 - Wesleyan - 5
7 - Williams - 5
10 - Amherst - 4
10 - Tufts - 4

Bates, Trinity and Conn continue to have extraordinarily large recruiting classes (see Reply #3 on page 1 for detail). Such consistently large class sizes either results in unusually large rosters (Bates with a record 29 this year) or results in (or, less likely, is a response to) large amounts of attrition (Conn with 10 non-returning players, Trinity with 7 non-returning players).

Number of Expected Returning Players not on 2014 Roster
Conn - 10
Trinity - 7
Bowdoin - 4
Hamilton - 4
Amherst - 3
Bates - 3
Colby - 3
Tufts - 3
Wesleyan - 3
Williams - 3
Middlebury - 0

To me, the number of non-returning players for Conn and Trinity raises a red flag. If the attrition is because players leave voluntarily, that's a lot of unhappy players; if the attrition is because players are cut, that's a lot of players who should be nervous.

In most cases, the non-returning players got little playing time in meaningful games. There were, however, a number of exceptions where strong contributors have not come back (eg due to injury, transferring to another school, fall semester abroad, academic problems, health issues).
Amherst - Maggie Belnapp - 7 league starts, 2 league goals
Bowdoin - Audrey Phillips - 10 league games, 1 league goal
Bowdoin - Maya Norman - 7 league starts
Conn - Katelyn Murray - 6 league starts
Hamilton - Kendall Daly - 9 league starts, 3 league goals
Trinity - Abby Lake - 10 league starts, 4 league goals
Tufts - Katie Coyle - 10 league games, 2 league starts
Wesleyan - Victoria Matthews - 8 league games, 4 league starts, 2 league goals
Wesleyan - Isabel Clements - 10 league games, 6 league starts
Williams - Hannah Levin - 10 league games, 5 league starts

[Becks]

Games for Sat, Sept 6:

Colby @ Williams - Last year Williams beat Colby 2-1 at Colby, outshooting them 19-11. Bennettrank has Williams as a 2-goal favorite. I think it might be more than that. Williams is coming back loaded is playing at home and Colby lost all their league scoring (including Papadellis). I'll say Williams 3-0 Colby.

Trinity @ Hamilton - Last year Trinity beat Hamilton 2-0 at Trinity, outshooting them by only 12-10. Bennettrank has Trinity as a 1-goal favorite. These are 2 teams that were supposed to return a lot of their starters and scoring, but both, surprisingly, lost their leading league scorers (Abby Lake and Kendall Daly). Trinity still have more weapons left, however. A 1-goal win by Trinity away at Hamilton sounds about right. My guess Trinity 2-1 Hamilton.

Bates @ Tufts - Last year Bates upset Tufts 2-1 at Bates for their only win of the league season, despite being outshot by Tufts 20-13. Bennettrank has Tufts as whopping 3-goal favorites. It could happen, but I'll be a little more conservative: Tufts 2-0 Bates.

Bowdoin @ Wesleyan - Last year Bowdoin beat Wes by only 2-1 at Bowdoin, but outshot them 19-6. Bad news for Wes is that Bowdoin is returning all their league-leading offense, while Wes lacks a true forward. Good news for Wes is that it's at home. Bennettrank has Bowdoin as 1-goal favorites. That's probably about right. Bowdoin 1-0 Wes.

Games for Sun, Sept 7:

Wheaton @ Williams - Last year these teams tied 2-2 at Wheaton, although Williams outshot them 22-12. Both teams will be playing back to back games, but Wheaton has the disadvantage of having to drive up to Williams. Bennettrank has Williams as a 2-goal favorite. I say Williams 3-1 Wheaton.

Amherst @ Middlebury - The game of the week between 2 teams with top of the league ambitions. Last year Amherst beat Middlebury 1-0 at Amherst in OT, outshooting them 12-9. Both teams lost a lot of talent from last year but always seem to reload. Bennettrank has Middlebury as a 1-goal favorite at home. I agree. Middlebury 1-0 Amherst.

Johnson & Wales @ Conn - I'm not sure what the last time J&W played Conn, but it's been a while. Both teams are playing Fri-Sun games. Conn beat Albertus Magnus 3-1, but J&W lost 0-3 to ECSU. Bennettrank has Conn as 3-goal favorites. I have nothing really to base this on. I'll guess Conn 3-1 J&W.

[rudy]

New to this forum.  Got a daughter in NESCAC so will be following along this season and posting when I have something to add.  Thanks Becks for all the tidbits of info.  Williams looks to be awfully deep (my kid not on Williams).

[Becks]

Welcome aboard, Rudy.

[Becks]

Fri, Sept 5 result:

Conn 3-1 Albertus Magnus - A promising start for Conn. They outshot AM by 30-7, which is a huge improvement over last year's 14-8 in their 2-1.

[MHS]

Number of Expected Returning Players not on 2014 Roster
Conn - 10
Trinity - 7
Hamilton - 7
Bowdoin - 4
Amherst - 3

I see only 4 from last year's Hamilton roster not back on the roster this season.

[Becks]

Number of Expected Returning Players not on 2014 Roster
Conn - 10
Trinity - 7
Hamilton - 7
Bowdoin - 4
Amherst - 3

I see only 4 from last year's Hamilton roster not back on the roster this season.

Good catch. I misread my earlier post about Hamilton's roster (Reply #87). I have corrected Reply #105 accordingly.

[rudy]

Welcome aboard, Rudy.

Glad to be aboard (-:
Well I just returned from first game of the season.  Not sure if it is indicative of how Tufts will play the rest of the year but they put up a lot of goals today with 5 different goal scorers (6-0).   They beat Merrimack in scrimmage last week 5-0 so maybe they will be scoring more this year.  We'll see if the trend continues.  Nice start to the season but a LONG way to go.   I see Hamilton beat Trinity which based on last year's standings seems to be a bit of a surprise. I would have expected Williams to beat Colby by a larger margin but a win is a win.   

[Becks]

Comments on games on Sat, Sept 6:

Williams 2-0 Colby - Bennetttrack had predicted a Williams 2-goal win (spot on), while I had predicted Williams 3-0. Williams outshot Colby 26-6 (compared to 19-11 last year).

Hamilton 3-2 Trinity- Both Bennetttrack and I had predicted a 1-goal win for Trinity. Stats show it was a well-deserved win for Hamilton, as they outshot Trinity 19-9. A bit of a surprise, particularly the shot differential.

Tufts 6-0 Bates - Bennettrank had predicted a Tufts 3-goal win, while I had predicted Tufts 2-0. Actually score line suggests a blowout, but the shots stats suggest a far closer game -- Tufts only outshot Bates by 19-13, which would be more consistent with a 1 goal win. 6 goals in only 19 shots is pretty unusual.

Bowdoin 2-1 Wesleyan (2OT) - Both Bennettrank and I had predicted a 1-goal Bowdoin win. Bowdoin outshot Wes 26-8 (compared to 19-6 last year), which suggests maybe a 2-goal Bowdoin win. From watching the game, I'd say Wes was lucky to have made it out of regulation tied and would happily have taken the point. Bowdoin created a lot of chances and was unlucky to have only converted 1 of them in the first 90.

[nescac1]

I earlier predicted that Williams' dynamic sophomore scorers "Kirshe, Thomas, and Wardlaw could easily leap from 17 goals combined to around 30, if they all stay healthy."  I'm feeling more confident about that prediction after Kirshe and Thomas combined to score all 5 of the Ephs' goals in the first two games!  (Alas, I don't think they will keep up a pace which would result in 75 combined goals on the season).  Sophomore Maddie Swarr added two assists.  Thomas and Kirshe are going to pile on a LOT of goals before they are finished as Ephs, unsurprising considering that both were state POYs in high school.  Two different styles of players, both very hard to contain, and early returns suggest, based on number of shots both have taken in each contest, that the Eph offense is going to less balanced than last year, and more focused on feeding the top scoring threats. 

[GUBFL]

Also saw the Bowdoin/Wesleyan game yesterday. Tough day to play soccer with the heat and humidity. Haven't seem mandatory water breaks for awhile!  As the shots indicate Bowdoin controlled the majority of the play and would have won by a larger margin in regulation if not for a couple of great saves by the Wesleyan goalie.  Wouldn't read too much into one game good or bad, but Wesleyan did not show much offensive ability as the Bowdoin goalie was not credited with a single save.

[Becks]

Also saw the Bowdoin/Wesleyan game yesterday. Tough day to play soccer with the heat and humidity. Haven't seem mandatory water breaks for awhile!  As the shots indicate Bowdoin controlled the majority of the play and would have won by a larger margin in regulation if not for a couple of great saves by the Wesleyan goalie.  Wouldn't read too much into one game good or bad, but Wesleyan did not show much offensive ability as the Bowdoin goalie was not credited with a single save.

Fair assessment. Wes struggled for goals last year and lost a lot of 1 goal games as a result. Doesn't look like much has changed so far this season.

[Becks]

Comments on games for Sun, Sept 7:

Williams 3-1 Wheaton - Bennettrank had Williams as a 2-goal favorite, while I picked Williams 3-1 (spot on). Williams outshot Wheaton 19-11, compared to 22-12 last year.

Amherst 1-0 Middlebury - Bennettrank had Middlebury as a 1-goal favorite at home, while I had Middlebury winning 1-0. Amherst won on an OG. Stats suggest that Middlebury was the better team and was unlucky not to have won by a goal or 2. Middlebury had an 18-6 shots advantage (compared to a 12-9 shot advantage last year).

Conn 6-1 Johnson & Wales - Bennettrank had Conn as only 3-goal favorites, but I don't know if they ever go above 3. No stats available yet.

[Ocean 1]

Watched the Colby game yesterday. Score should have been much higher on the Williams side...maybe +2-3 goals based on crossbar hits and open net misses. Typical first game shaking off the cobwebs.

[amh63]

Watched the Amherst game in the second half mainly....since there were two other matches going on with Panther teams.  What I saw...maybe bias a bit....neither team dominated.  Amherst was outshot 18-6,; however the LJs had more corner kicks....6-2 and appear to have the better goalie.  This was the 4th straight game that Amherst has shut out Middlebury (3-0-1)!  Not a bad defensive game against the 3rd ranked Panthers!   
Have to admit that Panthers men's team took the higher ranked Amherst team to 2OT and a tie.