NESCAC 2014

[Becks]

Watched the Amherst game in the second half mainly....since there were two other matches going on with Panther teams.  What I saw...maybe bias a bit....neither team dominated.  Amherst was outshot 18-6,; however the LJs had more corner kicks....6-2 and appear to have the better goalie.  This was the 4th straight game that Amherst has shut out Middlebury (3-0-1)!  Not a bad defensive game against the 3rd ranked Panthers!   
Have to admit that Panthers men's team took the higher ranked Amherst team to 2OT and a tie.

Funny about the corner kicks. One stat that has always stood out for Amherst women's teams is that they almost always lead the league in cornerkicks. I think it must be a style-of-play thing.

[Becks]

Frosh list updated for final rosters. "Unknown" indicates that I tried to search for the player's club affiliation but couldn't find one.

Amherst - 4
Hannah Guzzi - Southborough, MA - GPS-Massachusetts (formerly MPS Renegades) - F
Delancey King - Braintree, MA - Scorpions SC ECNL U18 - M
Meredith Manley - Potttown, PA - Penn Fusion ECNL U18 - M
Alison Neveu - Thousand Oaks, CA - Real So Cal ECNL U18 - M/D/F

Bates - 11
Caroline Andy - Concord, NH - Seacoast Express United U18 - M
Hannah Behringer - Old Lyme, CT - Southeast SC U18 - D/M
Emma Goff - Winchester, MA - GPS/MPS Lady Knights U18? - D
Ainsley Jamieson - Scarborough, MA - unknown (possibly none; lax player) - D/M
Lindsey Landwehrle - Stowe, VT - unknown - F
Libby Malasky - Dedham, MA - unknown - F
Sarah McCarthy - Rockville Center, NY - East Meadow SC Dynamite NPL U18 - GK
Amanda Paine - Moultonborough, NH - unknown - GK
Brigid Quinn - Santa Fe, NM - unknown - M
Julia Rosen - Springfield, MA - unknown - F
Allegra Sacco - Medway, MA - NEFC Elite U18 - GK

Bowdoin - 7
Brigit Bergin - Natick, MA - NEFC Elite - D
Emily Nitzan - Sao Paulo, Brazil - unknown - F
Jill Rathke - Burlington, VT - Capital SC - D
Rachel Stout - Lakeville, MN - Shattuck-St Mary’s Sabres U18 - GK
Elizabeth Weathers - Newport, RI - unknown - D
Nikki Wilson - Shrewsbury, MA - GPS-MA (formerly MPS Renegades) - M
Ellie Zak - Grosse Point, MI - unknown - M/F

Colby - 7
Laura  Arnold - Dallas, TX - Dallas Sting '96 (Brown) - F
Michelle Duarte - Palos Verdes, CA - FRAM SC - F
Nora Hanson - San Francisco, CA - unknown - GK
Jess Horick - Minneapolis, MN - unknown - D
Ally Ingraham - Morris Plains, NJ - unknown - D
Emily Martin - Bethesda, MD - unknown - D
Sami Turbeville - Pukalani, HI - unknown - M

Conn - 9
Livi Block - New York, NY - unknown - M
Alex Bukovac - Winnetka, IL - Academy United 95/96 - D
Kristina Caradonna - Lynnfield, MA - Aztecs FC - D
Haley Keegan - Wrentham, MA - Tidal Wave FC Sting - M
Caroline Kelleher - Worcester, MA - unknown - M
Mackenzie Kingston - Charlotte, VT - Far Post - F
Michelle Medina - Hartford, CT - Oakwood SC U18 - F
Nicole Medina - Hartford, CT - Oakwood SC U18 - M
Alexa Tribelli - Cranston, RI - Bayside FC Bolts 95/96 - M

Hamilton - 8
Amanda Becker - Chappaqua, NY - New York Rush Patriots 96 - F
Rosalie Campbell - New York, NY - ISA - D
Rachel Cooley - Branchburg, NJ - unknown - GK
Emily Dumont - N Andover, MA - unknown - GK
Katja Dunlap - Arlington, MA - Fusion FC - F/M
Katie Kreider - Boxford, MA - Aztec - F
Darby Philbrick - Alexandria, VA - Alexandria SA Freedom - F
Kate Whiston - Rye, NY - FC Westchester Elite 96 - F

Trinity - 10
Stephanie Allieri - Boonton, NJ - Jersey United Spartans 95/96 - GK
Alexa Barbaresi - Newport Beach, CA - West Coast FC U18 United - D
Sarah Connors - Winnetka, IL - FC United Select - D
Julia Pitino - Littleton, MA - unknown - GK
Lorig Purutyan - Concord, MA - unknown - M
Jillian Ramsay - Glastonbury, CT - unknown (Oakwood back in the day) - M
Carrie Shaw - Lawrenceville, NJ - unknown (seems to be primarily a lax player) - M/D
Maddie Snyder - Montclair, NJ - Match Fit ECNL U18 - M
Annabel Stanley - Bedford, NY - FC Westchester Elite - M/D/F

Tufts - 4
Mariah Harvey-Brown - Mill Valley, CA - Marin FC - F
Chandler Quintin - North Attleborough, MA - Scorpions SC ECNL U18 - M/D
Emily Wilson - Andover, MA - GPS-Milan (formerly Milan Boston) - GK
Margaret Zahrah - Chicago, IL - FC United Select 95/96 - M

Wesleyan - 5
Samantha Ashley - New Canaan, CT - Connecticut FC ECNL U18 - M
Meghan Cunningham - Washington, DC - formerly on VSA Heat Blue U17 - M
Ellie Dempsey - Stamford, CT - Connecticut FC ECNL U18 - M
Meghan Hanan - Sammamish, WA - ISC/Arsenal? Crossfire? - GK
Elise Waller - Dallas, TX - Dallas Texans Red North '96 - M

Williams - 5
Natasha Albaneze - Northport, NY - East Meadow SC ECNL U18 - F
Evan Gancedo - Pasenda, CA - LA Premier FC U18 - M
Hanna Kaeser - Pelham, NY - Connecticut FC ECNL U18 - MF
Lucy Putnam - Los Angeles, CA - Real SoCal ECNLU17 - M
Dani Sim - Bel Air, MD - Seacoast United U18 - B

[rudy]

FYI for Tufts:

Margaret Zahrah - Chicago, IL - M => FC United Select 95/96 (IL)
Mariah Harvey-Brown Mill Valley CA  =>  Marin FC

[Becks]

FYI for Tufts:

Margaret Zahrah - Chicago, IL - M => FC United Select 95/96 (IL)
Mariah Harvey-Brown Mill Valley CA  =>  Marin FC

Thanks, rudy. I have updated the list.

[Jump4Joy]

Becks,
Thanks for the varied and specific information!
I would like to correct one data point, if I may: Amherst beat Midd in OT last year, not the other way around. In fact, in the four years since the debacle in 2010 (A was winning 3-0; M came back to tie it up in regulation and win in OT), the Jeffs have kept the Panthers scoreless.
Keep the info and analysis coming. Should be fun.

[Becks]

Becks,
Thanks for the varied and specific information!
I would like to correct one data point, if I may: Amherst beat Midd in OT last year, not the other way around. In fact, in the four years since the debacle in 2010 (A was winning 3-0; M came back to tie it up in regulation and win in OT), the Jeffs have kept the Panthers scoreless.
Keep the info and analysis coming. Should be fun.

Thanks, jump. I've gone back and corrected my mis-post. I remember that 2010 game well. Didn't see it, but I remember there was some second-guessing of the Amherst coach. Risky to base too much on 1 game, but probably no way this year's Amherst team would give up 3 goals late in a game. Similar to last year, so far it looks like Amherst is going to rely primarily on defense/keeping rather than an potent offense like they had several years ago.

[Becks]

Lots of blowouts this week as most NESCAC teams beat up on weak non-league opponents. Two best games are Tufts v MIT and Wesleyan v Vassar, both of which are toss-ups.

Games scheduled for Tuesday, Sept 9:

Trinity v Manhattanville (@ Trinity) - Last year, Trinity clobbered Manhattanville 6-1, outshooting them by 30-3(!). Bennettrank has Trinity ranked at 28 and Manhattanville at 278. I wasn't sure Bennettranking favored teams by more than 3 goals, but it seems they do -- they have Trinity favored by 4. Perhaps conservative. I'll say Trinity 5-0.

Bates v Southern Maine (@ Bates) - Last year, Bates only beat SoMe 1-0, but they outshot them 19-2. Bennettrank has Bates at 133 and SoMe at 297 and once again predicts a 4-0 blowout. Based on Bates's travails at Tufts last weekend, I'll go Bates 4-1.

Games scheduled for Wednesday, Sept 10:

Middlebury v Keene State (@ Middlebury) - Last year, Middlebury tied Keene State 1-1, although they outshot them 10-5. Keene State is ranked 93 by Bennettrank and makes Middlebury only 2 goal favorites. Sounds about right. Middlebury 2-0.

Colby v Thomas (@ Colby) - The teams didn't play last year. Bennettrank ranks Thomas way down at 397 (the lowest I've seen for a NESCAC opponent) and favors Colby by 4. Sure, why not? Colby 4-0.

Tufts v MIT (@ MIT) - Now THIS is a legitimate game. MIT beat Tufts 2-1 last year and outshot them by 29-20. Curiously, Bennettrank has Tufts ranked at 29 but MIT only at 50, which seems low, and has Tufts as a 1-goal favorite. Probably not a lot of home field advantage here since the campuses are about 3 miles apart. I say 2-2 tie.

Wesleyan v Vassar (@ Wesleyan) - Another decent contest. Wes hasn't played Vassar since 1992. Bennettrank has the teams ranked 61 and 60 respectively, but makes Wes 1-goal favorites, presumably because they are playing at home. Wes seems to love OT games, so a 1-1 2OT tie.

Amherst v Mt Holyoke (@ Amherst) - Last year, Amherst beat Mt Holyoke 4-0, outshooting them by 34-5. Bennettrank has Mt Holyoke ranked at only 287 and makes Amherst a 4-goal favorite. Sounds right. Amherst 4-0.

Hamilton v SUNYIT (@ SUNYIT) - Last year, Hamilton played 2 SUNY's but not IT. Bennettrank has SUNYIT at 370 and makes this a 4-goal blowout. Why not? Hamilton 4-0.

[Becks]

First NESCAC weekly soccer release has been posted: http://www.nescac.com/sports/wsoc/2014-15/reports/NESCAC_WSOC_090814.pdf POW is Amherst's keeper, Holly Burwick. Seems like a decent choice to me. A 9-save shutout game against the defending champs is a good performance. My complaint in the past with regards to POW awards to keepers is that they sometimes get them for shut-outs when they only had to make 1 or 2 saves in a game.

Another deserving candidate was Tuft's freshman Mariah Harvey-Brown who had 3 assists in Tuft's game against Bates. 3 assists in a league game is a freakish accomplishment. To put it in context, that's as many assists as any NESCAC player had in the entire 2013 league regular season and more assists than Hamilton had as a team all last year in league play.

[rudy]

I'll say Tufts 3-1 over MIT.  But I'm biased.  It will be a very good test to see if Tufts offense can put in goals against a very solid MIT team.

[Becks]

Comments on Tuesday, Sept 9 game results

Trinity 4-0 Manhattanville (@ Trinity) - Bennettranking favored Trinity by 4 goals (they nailed it), while I had Trinity 5-0. Trinity outshot Manhattanville 28-1, compared to 30-3 last year.


Bates 4-0 Southern Maine (@ Bates) - Bennettrank predicted a 4-0 Bates blowout, while I had Bates 4-1, so once again Bennettrack was spot on. Bates outshot SoMe by 38-4, compared to 19-2 last year. That's a promising stat for Bates, but fact that they led only 1-0 at the half is not.

Frankly not sure why NESCAC teams schedule opponents ranked 150+ places below them (250+ in the case of Trinity v Manhattanville). Improve team W-L and stats? I guess the Maine and VT teams have more of an excuse because I doubt there are that many decent D3 teams nearby, but still . . . Anyway, that's why I generally ignore non-league stats and results when evaluating NESCAC teams.

[Becks]

Non-League Strength of Schedule

Amherst (BR 9)
(Opp, Opp BR rank, BR rank differential)
Mt Holyoke 287 (+278)
Springfield 78 (+69)
Lasell 145 (+136)
Eastern Connecticut 165 (+156)
Keene State 93 (+84)
Opponent average BR: 152 (+143)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 0
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 2
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 1
Cream-puffs (>+150): 2

Bates (BR 126)
St Joes 272 (+146)
Southern Maine 297 (+169)
Maine Maritime 402 (+276)
Univ of New England 214 (+88)
Husson 340 (+214)
Opponent average BR: 305 (+179)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 0
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 1
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 1
Cream-puffs (>+150): 3

Bowdoin (BR 14)
Maine-Farmington 330 (+316)
Univ of New England 214 (+200)
Brandeis 30 (+16)
Southern Maine 297 (+283)
Opponent average BR: 218 (+204)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 1
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 0
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 0
Cream-puffs (>+150): 4

Colby (BR 92)
Thomas 397 (+305)
Univ of New England 214 (+122)
Southern Maine 297 (+205)
Maine-Farmington 330 (+238)
Husson 340 (+248)
Opponent average BR: 316 (+224)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 0
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 0
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 1
Cream-puffs (>+150): 4

Conn (BR 123)
Albertus Magnus 209 (+86)
Johnson and Wales 254 (+131)
St Joes 206 (+83)
Coast Guard 232 (+109)
Eastern Connecticut 165 (+42)
Opponent average BR: 213 (+90)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 1
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 2
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 2
Cream-puffs (>+150): 0

Hamilton (BR 57)
SUNY IT 370 (+323)
RPI 24 (-23)
SUNY Canton 383 (+336)
SUNY Oswego NR (+NR)
Utica 262 (+205)
Opponent average BR: 248 (+191)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 1
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 0
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 0
Cream-puffs (>+150): 3

Middlebury (BR 8)
Castleton State 232 (+224)
Keene State 93 (+85)
Plattsburgh State 107 (+98)
Skidmore 45 (+37)
St Lawrence 53 (+45)
Opponent average BR: 106 (+98)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 2
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 2
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 0
Cream-puffs (>+150): 1

Trinity (BR 25)
St Joes 202 (+177)
Manhattanville 278 (+253)
Wheaton 62 (+37)
Albertus Magnus 207 (+182)
Eastern Connecticut 165 (+140)
Opponent average BR: 183 (+158)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 1
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 0
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 1
Cream-puffs (>+150): 4

Tufts (BR 29)
MIT 50 (+21)
Suffolk 285 (+256)
Lesley 230 (+201)
Endicott 128 (+99)
Mass-Boston 73 (+44)
Opponent average BR: 153 (+124)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 2
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 1
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 0
Cream-puffs (>+150): 2

Wesleyan (BR 61)
Mass-Boston 73 (+12)
Vassar 60 (-1)
Babson 112 (+51)
Eastern Connecticut 165 (+101)
Elms 343 (+282)
Opponent average BR: 180 (+119)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 2
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 1
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 1
Cream-puffs (>+150): 1

Williams (BR 10)
Wheaton 64 (+54)
MIT 50 (+40)
Castleton State 227 (+217)
Springfield 78 (+68)
New England 333 (+323)
Opponent average BR: 150 (+140)
Highly competitive opponents (<+50): 1
Competitive opponents (>+50<+100): 2
Easy opponents (>+100<+150): 0
Cream-puffs (>+150): 2

So, to summarize:

1. Every NESCAC team plays some real cream-puff games, except Conn. For Colby, Bowdoin and Trinity, 4 out of 5 of their non-league games are against cream-puff opponents. For Bates and Hamilton, 3 out of 5 of their non-league games are against cream-puff opponents.

2. Colby, Bates and Amherst are playing NO highly competitive non-league games this year.

3. Colby is the only NESCAC team not playing any highly competitive or competitive non-league games this year -- only easy opponents and cream-puffs.

4. Opponent average BR rankings:
Middlebury 106
Williams 150
Amherst 152
Tufts 153
Wesleyan 180
Trinity 183
Conn 213
Bowdoin 218
Hamilton 248
Bates 305
Colby 316

5. Opponent average BR differential:
Conn +90 (mainly because they have a low BR and don't play any extremely weak teams)
Middlebury +98
Wesleyan +119
Tufts +124
Williams +140
Amherst + 143
Trinity +158
Bates +179
Hamilton +191
Bowdoin +204
Colby +224

6. Most highly competitive and competitive non-league games:
4 - Middlebury
3 - Conn
3 - Tufts
3 - Wesleyan
3 - Williams
2 - Amherst
1 - Bates
1 - Bowdoin
1 - Hamilton
1 - Trinity
0 - Colby

7. Only 2 NESCAC teams play non-league opponents with better BRs: Hamilton v RPI (-23) and Wesleyan v Vassar (-1).

8. Lowest BR opponent: Bates v Maine Maritime (BR 402).

9. Biggest BR differential: Hamilton v SUNY Canton (BR + 336).

[Becks]

Looking at the Bennettrankings for the non-NESCAC D3 schools in Maine, there are no potential highly competitive or competitive non-league opponents:

214 - Univ of New England
272 - St Joes
293 - Univ of Southern Maine
330 - Maine-Farmington
345 - Husson
403 - Maine Maritime
428 - Maine-Presque Island
(There are 434 D3 teams ranked by Bennettrank.)

The lack of nearby quality opponents is probably the reason Bowdoin is only playing 4 non-league games instead of the permitted 5 and is driving 2+ hours to Brandeis one weekend. It's worse for Bates and Colby because they are even farther north.

Lack of quality nearby opponents also causes Middlebury to have to play non-league games 2+hrs from campus.

Tufts has it easy. Lots of nearby quality competition.

[rudy]

I'll say Tufts 3-1 over MIT.  But I'm biased.  It will be a very good test to see if Tufts offense can put in goals against a very solid MIT team.

I wasn't too far off.  Tufts 4-0.    This is no small feat since one starting center back was injured pregame and did not play and the other all conference defender was injured late in the first half and did not return.  Goalie played excellent today.  MIT probably deserved one goal on the day but got some unlucky bounces and a couple solid saves.   Also another player that scored 2 goals in the opener sat out with injury.  Hopefully they all get healthy but it was good to see that they fought as a team in spite of the injuries and beat a quality opponent.

[Becks]

I'll say Tufts 3-1 over MIT.  But I'm biased.  It will be a very good test to see if Tufts offense can put in goals against a very solid MIT team.

I wasn't too far off.  Tufts 4-0.    This is no small feat since one starting center back was injured pregame and did not play and the other all conference defender was injured late in the first half and did not return.  Goalie played excellent today.  MIT probably deserved one goal on the day but got some unlucky bounces and a couple solid saves.   Also another player that scored 2 goals in the opener sat out with injury.  Hopefully they all get healthy but it was good to see that they fought as a team in spite of the injuries and beat a quality opponent.

Very impressive couple of wins by Tufts.

[Becks]

Comments on Wednesday, Sept 10 games:

Middlebury 2-1 Keene State (@ Middlebury) - Bennettrank had Middlebury as 2 goal favorites, while I predicted Middlebury 2-0. Middlebury outshot KS by 23-6.

Colby 6-0 Thomas (@ Colby) - Bennettrank favored Colby by 4 and I had Colby 4-0. Colby outshot Thomas 33-6.

Tufts 4-0 MIT (@ MIT) - Bennettrank had Tufts as a 1-goal favorite, while I said 2-2 tie. Shots were actually even at 12-12, so the final score seems a bit fluky.

Vassar 2-1 Wesleyan (@ Wesleyan) - Bennettrank had Wes as 1-goal favorites, while I had a 1-1 2OT tie. Well, Wes did manage to keep its streak of 1-goal losses going (now 3 and counting), but were outshot by 26-9. That's almost identical to how much Bowdoin outshot them, but Bowdoin is supposed to be a better team than Vassar.

Amherst 6-0 Mt Holyoke (@ Amherst) - Bennettrank had Amherst as a 4-goal favorite, and I had Amherst 4-0. Amherst outshot MH by 37-3.

Hamilton v SUNYIT (@ SUNYIT) - Bennettrank had a 4-goal blowout, and I had Hamilton 4-0. I guess the #370 D3 team really is that bad.