NESCAC 2014

[amh63]

Hamilton 7-0 win over SUNY IT.   

[Becks]

Hamilton 7-0 win over SUNY IT.

Thanks, amh63. That was fast.

[Becks]

Games scheduled for Saturday, Sept 13:

Middlebury (BR 8) @ Conn (BR 123) - Last year, Middlebury only beat Conn 1-0 at Middlebury, outshooting Conn 15-8. Conn seems to be playing well but haven't faced NESCAC competition yet. Bennettrank has Middlebury as 2 goal favorites. I'll say Middlebury 1-0.

Hamilton (BR 57) @ Bates (BR 133) - Last year, Hamilton beat Bates 1-0 at Hamilton, outshooting Bates 19-12. Hamilton is coming off a nice win over Trinity. Bates, on the other hand, was pulverized 6-0 by Tufts, but the stats were actually decently close. BR makes Hamilton a 1-goal favorite. I'll say Hamilton 2-1.

Amherst (BR 9) @ Bowdoin (BR 14) - Last year, these teams tied 0-0 at Amherst, with Amherst outshooting Bowdoin 23-9. This year it is a battle of possibly the best defense against the best office. BR has Bowdoin as 1-goal favorites. I'll go with a 0-0 tie again.

Trinity (BR 25) @ Williams (BR 10) - Last year, Trinity played Williams twice: beating them 2-0 in the regular season at Trinity and losing to them 2-0 in the NESCAC playoffs at Middlebury. Williams oustshot Trinity in both games: 16-12 and 17-6. BR has Williams as a 1-goal favorite. If Hamilton can get 3, I bet Williams can get 3, so I'll say 3-1.

Tufts (BR 29) @ Colby (BR 92) - Last year, Tufts beat Colby 2-0, outshooting them 16-6. BR has Tufts as a 1-goal favorite. The Tufts offense has been on fire this year, so I'll say 2-0.

Wesleyan (BR 61) @ Babson (BR 112) - These teams played to a 0-0 tie last year at Wesleyan, with Wesleyan outshooting Babson 12-10. Both teams have already played UMass-Boston this year, with Wesleyan losing 1-0 and Babson tying 0-0. BR has Wes as 1-goal favorites, but I see another 0-0 tie as likely.

Games scheduled for Saturday, Sept 14:

MIT (BR 50) @ Williams (BR 10) - Tufts beat MIT 4-0 last weak, but I think that was a fluke since the shots were 12-12. BR has Williams as 1-goal favorites. Williams is playing back to back games, while MIT has Saturday off. I don't think Williams will be able to repeat Tufts result. I'll say Williams 2-1.

Hamilton (BR 57) @ RPI (BR 24) - This will be a tough game for Hamilton since they play Bates at Bates on Saturday. RPI is also playing away on Saturday but it should be a easy game for them. BR has RPI favored by 1. RPI's results aren't too impressive so far, while Hamiton had the nice win over Trinity. Still, playing away back to back games against a supposedly stronger team, I see a 1-0 RPI win.

[rudy]

Games scheduled for Saturday, Sept 13:

Middlebury (BR 8) @ Conn (BR 123) - Last year, Middlebury only beat Conn 1-0 at Middlebury, outshooting Conn 15-8. Conn seems to be playing well but haven't faced NESCAC competition yet. Bennettrank has Middlebury as 2 goal favorites. I'll say Middlebury 1-0.

Hamilton (BR 57) @ Bates (BR 133) - Last year, Hamilton beat Bates 1-0 at Hamilton, outshooting Bates 19-12. Hamilton is coming off a nice win over Trinity. Bates, on the other hand, was pulverized 6-0 by Tufts, but the stats were actually decently close. BR makes Hamilton a 1-goal favorite. I'll say Hamilton 2-1.

Amherst (BR 9) @ Bowdoin (BR 14) - Last year, these teams tied 0-0 at Amherst, with Amherst outshooting Bowdoin 23-9. This year it is a battle of possibly the best defense against the best office. BR has Bowdoin as 1-goal favorites. I'll go with a 0-0 tie again.

Trinity (BR 25) @ Williams (BR 10) - Last year, Trinity played Williams twice: beating them 2-0 in the regular season at Trinity and losing to them 2-0 in the NESCAC playoffs at Middlebury. Williams oustshot Trinity in both games: 16-12 and 17-6. BR has Williams as a 1-goal favorite. If Hamilton can get 3, I bet Williams can get 3, so I'll say 3-1.

Tufts (BR 29) @ Colby (BR 92) - Last year, Tufts beat Colby 2-0, outshooting them 16-6. BR has Tufts as a 1-goal favorite. The Tufts offense has been on fire this year, so I'll say 2-0.

Wesleyan (BR 61) @ Babson (BR 112) - These teams played to a 0-0 tie last year at Wesleyan, with Wesleyan outshooting Babson 12-10. Both teams have already played UMass-Boston this year, with Wesleyan losing 1-0 and Babson tying 0-0. BR has Wes as 1-goal favorites, but I see another 0-0 tie as likely.

Games scheduled for Saturday, Sept 14:

MIT (BR 50) @ Williams (BR 10) - Tufts beat MIT 4-0 last weak, but I think that was a fluke since the shots were 12-12. BR has Williams as 1-goal favorites. Williams is playing back to back games, while MIT has Saturday off. I don't think Williams will be able to repeat Tufts result. I'll say Williams 2-1.

Hamilton (BR 57) @ RPI (BR 24) - This will be a tough game for Hamilton since they play Bates at Bates on Saturday. RPI is also playing away on Saturday but it should be a easy game for them. BR has RPI favored by 1. RPI's results aren't too impressive so far, while Hamiton had the nice win over Trinity. Still, playing away back to back games against a supposedly stronger team, I see a 1-0 RPI win.

Middlebury is hungry after losing a tough one against Amherst on an own goal.  I watched first half of that game streaming video and Middlebury looked to be the better team.  Middlebury will take it out on CT and win by 3 goals. 3-0.

MIT is not as strong as their record indicates.  A couple of dangerous players but Williams is deep.  They got 12 shots off against Tufts but only 2 or 3 were any serious threat.  A shot wide by 20 yards is no threat.   Perhaps scoring 4 off 12 shots is "flukey" for Tufts but not if they are good shots to take.  I think shots taken can be misleading stat.   I would take Williams by at least 2 goals...probably more.   4-1

Amherst and Bowdoin will be interesting game.  I think one team will pull off a 1 goal win.  Not sure which one though (-:

Tufts has some injuries to deal with but should be able to handle Colby.  First away game so may not have the same offensive output as they have in first 2 games.  I agree with 2-0 or maybe 2-1 if still missing starting defenders.

No comment on the rest of the games (-:

[rudy]

Games scheduled for Saturday, Sept 13:

Middlebury (BR 8) @ Conn (BR 123) - Last year, Middlebury only beat Conn 1-0 at Middlebury, outshooting Conn 15-8. Conn seems to be playing well but haven't faced NESCAC competition yet. Bennettrank has Middlebury as 2 goal favorites. I'll say Middlebury 1-0.

Hamilton (BR 57) @ Bates (BR 133) - Last year, Hamilton beat Bates 1-0 at Hamilton, outshooting Bates 19-12. Hamilton is coming off a nice win over Trinity. Bates, on the other hand, was pulverized 6-0 by Tufts, but the stats were actually decently close. BR makes Hamilton a 1-goal favorite. I'll say Hamilton 2-1.

Amherst (BR 9) @ Bowdoin (BR 14) - Last year, these teams tied 0-0 at Amherst, with Amherst outshooting Bowdoin 23-9. This year it is a battle of possibly the best defense against the best office. BR has Bowdoin as 1-goal favorites. I'll go with a 0-0 tie again.

Trinity (BR 25) @ Williams (BR 10) - Last year, Trinity played Williams twice: beating them 2-0 in the regular season at Trinity and losing to them 2-0 in the NESCAC playoffs at Middlebury. Williams oustshot Trinity in both games: 16-12 and 17-6. BR has Williams as a 1-goal favorite. If Hamilton can get 3, I bet Williams can get 3, so I'll say 3-1.

Tufts (BR 29) @ Colby (BR 92) - Last year, Tufts beat Colby 2-0, outshooting them 16-6. BR has Tufts as a 1-goal favorite. The Tufts offense has been on fire this year, so I'll say 2-0.

Wesleyan (BR 61) @ Babson (BR 112) - These teams played to a 0-0 tie last year at Wesleyan, with Wesleyan outshooting Babson 12-10. Both teams have already played UMass-Boston this year, with Wesleyan losing 1-0 and Babson tying 0-0. BR has Wes as 1-goal favorites, but I see another 0-0 tie as likely.

Games scheduled for Saturday, Sept 14:

MIT (BR 50) @ Williams (BR 10) - Tufts beat MIT 4-0 last weak, but I think that was a fluke since the shots were 12-12. BR has Williams as 1-goal favorites. Williams is playing back to back games, while MIT has Saturday off. I don't think Williams will be able to repeat Tufts result. I'll say Williams 2-1.

Hamilton (BR 57) @ RPI (BR 24) - This will be a tough game for Hamilton since they play Bates at Bates on Saturday. RPI is also playing away on Saturday but it should be a easy game for them. BR has RPI favored by 1. RPI's results aren't too impressive so far, while Hamiton had the nice win over Trinity. Still, playing away back to back games against a supposedly stronger team, I see a 1-0 RPI win.

Middlebury is hungry after losing a tough one against Amherst on an own goal.  I watched first half of that game streaming video and Middlebury looked to be the better team.  Middlebury will take it out on CT and win by 3 goals. 3-0.

MIT is not as strong as their record indicates.  A couple of dangerous players but Williams is deep.  They got 12 shots off against Tufts but only 2 or 3 were any serious threat.  A shot wide by 20 yards is no threat.   Perhaps scoring 4 off 12 shots is "flukey" for Tufts but not if they are good shots to take.  I think shots taken can be misleading stat.   I would take Williams by at least 2 goals...probably more.   4-1

Amherst and Bowdoin will be interesting game.  I think one team will pull off a 1 goal win.  Not sure which one though (-:

Tufts has some injuries to deal with but should be able to handle Colby.  First away game so may not have the same offensive output as they have in first 2 games.  I agree with 2-0 or maybe 2-1 if still missing starting defenders.

No comment on the rest of the games (-:

MIT also gave up 8 corner kicks against Tufts..letting up one goal off an early corner.  We'll see if Williams can pull a goal out of a corner.

[Becks]

Besides Bennettrankings, there is another rating site that I saw mentioned on the NESCAC men's soccer board: http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=csocw2014&sub=11620 Not a fan of the graphics, but it's worth checking out.

[Becks]

Comments on Saturday, Sept 13 games:

Conn 3-0 Middlebury (@ Conn) - Surprise result of the year so far. Bennettrank had Middlebury as 2 goal favorites. I said Middlebury 1-0. Stats show a very even game: shots 13-13. Loss puts the defending league champs at 0-2 in the league.

Bates 2-1 Hamilton (@ Bates) - Not as surprising at the Conn-Midd result, but still a mild upset. BR made Hamilton a 1-goal favorite, while I said Hamilton 2-1. Stats suggest that Bates was a bit lucky to win. Hamilton outshot them 19-15 and out SOG'd them 8-6.

Bowdoin 1-0 Amherst (@ Bowdoin) - BR had Bowdoin as 1-goal favorites (spot on), while I went with a 0-0 tie. Stats indicate that Bowdoin was a bit lucky to win. Bowdoin outshot Amherst only 13-12 and Amherst out SOG'd Bowdoin by 8-5.

Williams 5-0 Trinity (@ Williams) - BR had Williams as a 1-goal favorite, while I said Williams by 3-1. Stats suggest the game was closer than the score. Williams outshot Trinity by 21-15 and out SOGd them by 9-3.

Tufts 3-1 Colby (@ Colby) - BR had Tufts as a 1-goal favorite, while I said Tufts by 2-0. Stats suggest the final score flatters Tufts slightly: Tufts outshot Colby 21-13.

Babson 2-0 Wesleyan (@ Babson) - BR had Wes as 1-goal favorites, while I predicted a 0-0 tie. A very disappointing result for Wes in my opinion, and the stats were worse than the score. Last year the teams played to a 0-0 tie, with Wesleyan outshooting Babson 12-10. This year Wesleyan was outshot by 26-6.

[rudy]

Comments on Saturday, Sept 13 games:

Conn 3-0 Middlebury (@ Conn) - Surprise result of the year so far. Bennettrank had Middlebury as 2 goal favorites. I said Middlebury 1-0. Stats show a very even game: shots 13-13. Loss puts the defending league champs at 0-2 in the league.

Bates 2-1 Hamilton (@ Bates) - Not as surprising at the Conn-Midd result, but still a mild upset. BR made Hamilton a 1-goal favorite, while I said Hamilton 2-1. Stats suggest that Bates was a bit lucky to win. Hamilton outshot them 19-15 and out SOG'd them 8-6.

Bowdoin 1-0 Amherst (@ Bowdoin) - BR had Bowdoin as 1-goal favorites (spot on), while I went with a 0-0 tie. Stats indicate that Bowdoin was a bit lucky to win. Bowdoin outshot Amherst only 13-12 and Amherst out SOG'd Bowdoin by 8-5.

Williams 5-0 Trinity (@ Williams) - BR had Williams as a 1-goal favorite, while I said Williams by 3-1. Stats suggest the game was closer than the score. Williams outshot Trinity by 21-15 and out SOGd them by 9-3.

Tufts 3-1 (@ Colby) - BR had Tufts as a 1-goal favorite, while I said Tufts by 2-0. Stats suggest the final score flatters Tufts slightly: Tufts outshot Colby 21-13.

Babson 2-0 Wesleyan (@ Babson) - BR had Wes as 1-goal favorites, while I predicted a 0-0 tie. A very disappointing result for Wes in my opinion, and the stats were worse than the score. Last year the teams played to a 0-0 tie, with Wesleyan outshooting Babson 12-10. This year Wesleyan was outshot by 26-6.

That Middlebury game is definitely a shocker.  Did Connecticut have a big recruiting year?  Maybe some local CFC kids come in and make an impact? Only goal against Tufts was an own goal so still have not let in a goal from an opponents shot in 3 games.  I watched online and I would say that Colby played good soccer and they impressed me. Tufts plays more counter attack and moves forward fast getting players in the box for scoring opportunities.  Colby was better than I expected.  They will get some NESCAC wins this season for sure. 

[Giggs]

Saw the first half of the Bowdoin Amherst game. Bowdoin carried the play and appeared to be the better team.

[nescac1]

All ten Eph goals on the season, and six out of nine assists, have now come at the foot of frosh or sophomore players.  24 out of 29 shots on goal have likewise come from underclass players.  Bodes well for the Eph offense for the next three seasons ...

[Becks]

All ten Eph goals on the season, and six out of nine assists, have now come at the foot of frosh or sophomore players.  24 out of 29 shots on goal have likewise come from underclass players.  Bodes well for the Eph offense for the next three seasons ...

I'm sure they will be good, but stats suggest that there is a good chance that the production by those particular players may peak this year.

Here's the distribution by class of goals scorers who were within the top 10 (including ties for 10th) for 2012-2008 (league only):
Fr - 12
So - 16
Ju - 16
Se - 15

This is consistent with my findings in post #42 (copied below) for average pts production by year for the last 4 Williams graduating classes:

Average Number of Points
Frosh year 2.9
Soph year 5.8
Junior year 5.7
Senior year 5.2

So the evidence suggests that, on average, players improve significantly from freshman to sophomore year, plateau as juniors, and fall off a bit as seniors.

[GUBFL]

Got to love the NESCAC, you just never know do you?  Big win for Bowdoin as they normally have a very tough time getting points from Amherst, Williams and Middlebury.  They look like they will be very tough defensively again this year.  While its only the week 2, surprised by the records of Conn College (positive) and Middlebury (negative).  Is the peeking order in the NESCAC changing or is it still much to early to tell?

[Becks]

Got to love the NESCAC, you just never know do you?  Big win for Bowdoin as they normally have a very tough time getting points from Amherst, Williams and Middlebury.  They look like they will be very tough defensively again this year.  While its only the week 2, surprised by the records of Conn College (positive) and Middlebury (negative).  Is the peeking order in the NESCAC changing or is it still much to early to tell?

I think the Conn program is getting better under their new coach, while Midd is having a bit of a rebuilding year after several very good seasons. Still, I would be surprised to see Conn finish above Midd.

[Becks]

Comments on Sunday, Sept 14 games:

Williams 3-2 MIT (2OT) - BR has Williams had 1-goal favorites and I had Williams 2-1. Stats show a deserved win for Williams, as they outshot MIT 29-16.

Hamilton 2-1 RPI - A bit of a surprise based the BR prediction of a 1-goal RPI win. Stats show a deserved win for Hamilton, as they outshot RPI 21-14.

[Ocean 1]

Comments on Sunday, Sept 14 games:

Williams 3-2 MIT (2OT) - BR has Williams had 1-goal favorites and I had Williams 2-1. Stats show a deserved win for Williams, as they outshot MIT 29-16.

To further the point, the Ephs outshot MIT 14-1 in the 2 OT's and 10-4 in Corner's.