NESCAC 2014

[Becks]

After checking out BennettRank http://www.bennettrank.com/conferences/nescac/?sports=Soccer&gender=Women&division=D3 and Massey http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=csocw2014&sub=12903 , they each have plus and minuses.  BennettRank has a better look to its website and it seems to get complete results (at least for NESCAC teams), but is a bit slow to input the results and it's ratings seem to respond only slowly to current season results. On the other hand, Massey provides more info and its ratings seem to reflect current season results better, but its site is uglier (in my opinion) and Massey is missing some results (eg, it currently only has 1 of Bowdoin's results). Massey has some scary features. If you click on a team's name, it will give you it's current odds for how likely it is that it is that the team will win each of its remaining games on its schedule. You can also pop up a Monte Carlo simulation that show the likelihood of different season-end records. That's scary if you are Wes or Colby (currently ranked #10 and 11 by Massey), perhaps heart-warming if you are Williams or Amherst.

Re Massey missing some results -- It turns out that Massey gets the game scores from the NCAA website, and the problem is that some NESCAC schools (ahem, Bowdoin) are slow in reporting their scores to the NCAA.

[Becks]

Comments on Sat, Sept 20 games:

Bates 1-0 Wes (1OT) (@Bates) - BennettRank made Wes a 1-goal favorite, while Massey said Bates would win 1-0 and I said a 1-1 tie. Based on stats, a tie would have been a fair result. Wes outshot Bates slightly 15-14 (the first time Wes has outshot any opponent this year), but Bates out SOGd them 6-4.

Conn 1-0 Hamilton (@Hamilton) - BennettRank made Hamilton a 2-goal favorite, while Massey and I said a 2-2 tie.  A good win for Conn as it continues it's hot start to the season. Stats show a well-deserved win for Conn. Conn outshot Hamilton by 20-7 and out SOGd them by 11-2.

Colby 0-0 Trinity (@Trinity) - BennettRank made Trinity a 2-goal favorite, while Massey and I said Trinity 2-1. A bad tie for Trinity and good tie for Colby. Trinity's performances this year definitely not up to those of last year so far. Stats show a tie was a fair result. Trinity slightly outshot Colby by 13-10, but Colby out SOGd them by 9-6.

Bowdoin 2-1 Middlebury (@Middlebury) - BennettRank made Middlebury a 1-goal favorite, while Massey and I said a 1-1 tie. Good win for Bowdoin and another bad loss for Midd. Returning champs is sole possession of last place in the league -- the only team with 0 points after 3 games. Stats show a tie might have been a fairer result. Middlebury slightly outshot Bowdoin 15-13, but Bowdoing out SOGd them by 7-5.

Amherst 2-0 Williams (@Amherst) - BennettRank made Amherst a 1-goal favorite, while Massey said a 1-1 tie and I said Williams 1-0. Amherst D continues to impress. Stats show that Williams created more scoring opportunities but couldn't finish any. Williams outshot Amherst 27-13 and out SOGd them by 10-6.

[Becks]

Comments on Sat, Sept 20 games:

Bates 1-0 Wes (1OT) (@Bates) - BennettRank made Wes a 1-goal favorite, while Massey said Bates would win 1-0 and I said a 1-1 tie. Based on stats, a tie would have been a fair result. Wes outshot Bates slightly 15-14 (the first time Wes has outshot any opponent this year), but Bates out SOGd them 6-4.

Conn 1-0 Hamilton (@Hamilton) - BennettRank made Hamilton a 2-goal favorite, while Massey and I said a 2-2 tie.  A good win for Conn as it continues it's hot start to the season. No stats yet.

Colby 0-0 Trinity (@Trinity) - BennettRank made Trinity a 2-goal favorite, while Massey and I said Trinity 2-1. A bad tie for Trinity and good tie for Colby. Trinity's performances this year definitely not up to those of last year so far.

Bowdoin 2-1 Middlebury (@Middlebury) - BennettRank made Middlebury a 1-goal favorite, while Massey and I said a 1-1 tie. Good win for Bowdoin and another bad loss for Midd. Returning champs is sole possession of last place in the league -- the only team with 0 points after 3 games. No stats yet.

Amherst 2-0 Williams (@Amherst) - BennettRank made Amherst a 1-goal favorite, while Massey said a 1-1 tie and I said Williams 1-0. Amherst D continues to impress. No stats yet.

Re Wes outshooting Bates 15-14 -- Not only was that the first time this year that Wes has outshot an opponent, amazingly it is the first time since Oct 16, 2012 that Wes has outshot a NESCAC opponent.

[Jump4Joy]

Amherst looked very good in their 2-0 shutout victory over previously undefeated Williams. Williams had some pockets of possession but were off target. In their on target chances the Amherst keeper snuffed them out. Amherst had the ball more often for longer stretches. A solid win.

[All NESCAC]

Amherst looked very good in their 2-0 shutout victory over previously undefeated Williams. Williams had some pockets of possession but were off target. In their on target chances the Amherst keeper snuffed them out. Amherst had the ball more often for longer stretches. A solid win.

Watched 2nd half of Conn vs Hamilton.  Very impressed by Conn women. They are a very good team and play a very entertaining style.  Game easily could have been 4 or 5 for Conn but Hamilton keeper played a tremendous game.  Conn is deep young and good with a good combination of size speed ans skill.  If some of their  young strikers would learn to shoot with their off foot they would be even more dangerous.  They are young and getting better each game.

[amh63]

Very few players at this level have confidence in their off foot..especially in hard fought games.  That includes the men.  Those that do are All- Americans.

[Becks]

I suppose there are more players who are at least adequately 2-footed at the higher levels, but almost all still favor 1 foot and some of the very best players in the world will essentially never shoot or even pass with their weaker foot - eg G Bale. There are also some very 2-footed players who are not very good.

[amh63]

Amherst beats Lasell, 1-0 at Amherst.  Expect the stats will show that Amherst dominated the game...a very low scoring game.  Lots of subs in this a back to back contest....from the win over the Ephs yesterday.  Interesting scheduling.

[All NESCAC]

Very few players at this level have confidence in their off foot..especially in hard fought games.  That includes the men.  Those that do are All- Americans.

I'm sorry but if you cant shoot from 20 feet in open goal with your off foot (at least try) then you were not trained well at younger ages and all college soccer players should be able to do this with no decision to be made.  You don't have to be an All American to do this just an average player and if you cant do this and you play striker well maybe you should be practicing this or don't play striker.

[Becks]

Comments on Sun, Sept 21 games:

Williams 4-0 Castleton State (@Castleton) - BennettRank made Williams a 4-goal favorite, while Massey predicted Williams 3-0. I said Williams 4-0 (nailed it). Williams outshot CS 28-5 and out SOGd them 13-1.

Amherst 1-0 Lasell (@Amherst) - BennettRank made Amherst a 4-goal favorite, while Massey said Amherst 2-0. I said Amherst 3-0. Amherst outshot Lasell 24-10 and out SOGd them 10-2. No doubts about the quality of Amherst's defense, but their win against Williams aside, their offense has yet to impress.

Bowdoin 4-0 Maine-Farmington(@Bowdoin) - Bennett made Bowdoin a 4-goal favorite, while Massey predicted Bowdoin 4-0. I also said Bowdoin 4-0. Bowdoin outshot MeFarm 22-0 and out SOGd them 13-0. Allowing 0 shots is impressive, even against MeFarm; not sure I've ever seen that before.

[rudy]

Games scheduled for Tuesday, Sept 23:

Tufts v Suffolk (@Tufts) - Last year, Tufts beat Suffolk 7-2, outshooting them 35-5. Again, no BennettRank yet for this game, but they give Suffolk a D3 ranking of 285 (Tufts is 20). Massey says Tufts 4-0. Not sure why Tufts would schedule teams this weak. It's not like there aren't lots of decent D3 teams nearby.

Have to agree with you here.  Watching online and it's 10-0.  I can't believe Suffolk actually won their last game 2-0. Everyone padding there stats in this game.  This has to be the weakest team they will play this year.   Saturday will be a big game with Amherst.

[Becks]

Comments on Tuesday, Sept 23 games:

Hamilton 4-2 Oswego State (@Oswego) - Massey predicted Hamilton 2-1. Stats actually show a very close game. Hamilton outshot OS only 16-13 and out SOGd them 11-9.

Tufts 10-0 Suffolk (@Tufts) - Total waste of time for both teams. Just hope NESCAC pays no attention to this game in awarding POW. Shots: 46-4.

Wesleyan 2-1 Eastern Connecticut State (@Wesleyan) - Massey predicted a 1-0 Wes win and a 1-goal margin it was. Stats show that Wes was lucky to get the win. Wes was outshot 16-9 and out SOGd 8-3. Wes got the go-ahead goal on a PK in the 87th minute.

Trinity 3-0 Albertus Magnus (@Albertus Magnus) - Massey predicted a 2-1 Trinity win. Based on the stats, 1-0 or 2-0 would have been fair. Trinity outshot Fat Albert by 11-3 and out SOGd them by 7-1.

[Becks]

Games scheduled for Wed, Sept 24:

4 non-league games on tap today. NESCAC teams should win each comfortably and some may end up as blowouts.

Bowdoin v University of New England (@Bowdoin) - BennettRank makes Bowdoin a 4-goal favorite, while Massey says Bowdoin 2-0. In light of UNE's win over Colby last week, I'll go with the lower GD and Massey.

Colby v Southern Maine (@Southern Maine) - BennettRank makes Colby a 4-goal favorite, while Massey says Colby 1-0. SoMe lost 4-0 to Bates a couple of weeks ago, so I'll say Colby 3-0.

Conn v Coast Guard (@Coast Guard) - BennettRank makes Conn a 2-goal favorite, while Massey says Conn 2-0. The way Conn has been playing, I'll say Conn 3-0.

Bates v Maine Maritime (@Bates) - BennettRank makes Bates a 4-goal favorite, while Massey says Bates 3-0. I'll go with BR on this: Bates 4-0.

[rudy]

Games scheduled for Wed, Sept 24:

4 non-league games on tap today. NESCAC teams should win each comfortably and some may end up as blowouts.

Bowdoin v University of New England (@Bowdoin) - BennettRank makes Bowdoin a 4-goal favorite, while Massey says Bowdoin 2-0. In light of UNE's win over Colby last week, I'll go with the lower GD and Massey.

Colby v Southern Maine (@Southern Maine) - BennettRank makes Colby a 4-goal favorite, while Massey says Colby 1-0. SoMe lost 4-0 to Bates a couple of weeks ago, so I'll say Colby 3-0.

Conn v Coast Guard (@Coast Guard) - BennettRank makes Conn a 2-goal favorite, while Massey says Conn 2-0. The way Conn has been playing, I'll say Conn 3-0.

Bates v Maine Maritime (@Bates) - BennettRank makes Bates a 4-goal favorite, while Massey says Bates 3-0. I'll go with BR on this: Bates 4-0.

Geez Maine Maritime  has BR of 401.  Worse than Tufts playing Suffolk.  If they don't beat them by at least 4 I would be surprised.   Coast Guard is pretty bad too.  Seems that Conn could find better teams to play in their area.  I can understand Bates playing a bad team since not many teams in Maine to play but Conn is similar to Tufts..plenty of teams in the area to play that would be better.    I would be surprised if Tufts plays Suffolk again next year.

[Becks]

Geez Maine Maritime  has BR of 401.  Worse than Tufts playing Suffolk.  If they don't beat them by at least 4 I would be surprised.   Coast Guard is pretty bad too.  Seems that Conn could find better teams to play in their area.  I can understand Bates playing a bad team since not many teams in Maine to play but Conn is similar to Tufts..plenty of teams in the area to play that would be better.    I would be surprised if Tufts plays Suffolk again next year.

4 it was for Bates over Maine Maritime. As for Conn v Coast Guard, that is generally a bit of a mismatch, but I don't blame the schools for playing each other because they are both in New London, so very convenient. Re Tufts not playing Suffolk again - I hope your right. I'm sure after the 10-0 blowout neither team wants to play each other next year. However, I think these things may be scheduled a year or two in advance, so it's possible they are scheduled to play again next year and won't be able to cancel.