NESCAC 2014

[Becks]

Comments on results of Wed, Sept 24 games:

Bowdoin 4-1 University of New England (@Bowdoin) - BennettRank made Bowdoin a 4-goal favorite, while Massey and I said Bowdoin 2-0. Bowdoin outshot UNE 24-7 and out SOGd them 12-4.

Colby 3-0 Southern Maine (@Southern Maine) - BennettRank made Colby a 4-goal favorite, while Massey said Colby 1-0. I said Colby 3-0 (nailed it). Colby outshot SoMe 27-5 and out SOGd them 15-2.

Conn 4-0 Coast Guard (@Coast Guard) - BennettRank made Conn a 2-goal favorite, while Massey said Conn 2-0. I said Conn 3-0 (closest of the 3). Stats suggest a game that is a bit closer than the score. Conn outshot CG by 15-5 and outSOGd them 7-1.

Bates 4-0 Maine Maritime (@Bates) - BennettRank made Bates a 4-goal favorite, while Massey said Bates 3-0. I said Bates 4-0 (spot on). Interesting that the scoreline was the same as for Conn v Coast Guard, because the stats show that the Bates game was much more one-sided. Bates outshot MM 35-4 and out SOGd them 15-4.

[Becks]

Games scheduled for Sat, Sept 27:

Middlebury v Colby (@Middlebury) - BennettRank makes Midd a 1-goal favorite and Massey says Midd 1-0. I'll go with that.

Hamilton v Wesleyan (@Wesleyan) - BennettRank (which still has Wes rated too high) makes Wes a 1-goal favorite, while Massey (which may have Wes rated too low) says Hamilton 1-0. I'll split the difference and say a 1-1 tie.

Bates v Trinity (@Trinity) - BennettRank (which also still has Trinity rated too high) makes Trinity a 2-goal favorite, while Massey say Trinity 1-0. I'll go with Massey.

Amherst v Tufts (@Tufts) - Best defense against one of the best offenses. BennettRank makes Amherst a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says 1-1. It doesn't seem like Tufts offense is as potent as earlier in the season. I'll go with Amherst 1-0.

Williams v Conn (@Conn) - Before the start of the season, this would have looked like a walk-over for Williams. But Conn has shown that they are a good team this year.  BennettRank (which still has Conn rated too low) makes Williams a 2-goal favorite, while Massey says a 1-1 tie. I'll go with Massey.

Bowdoin v Brandeis (@Brandeis) - Finally a decent non-league game. BennettRank makes Bowdoin a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says Bowdoin 1-0. I'll go with that.

[All NESCAC]

Games scheduled for Sat, Sept 27:

Middlebury v Colby (@Middlebury) - BennettRank makes Midd a 1-goal favorite and Massey says Midd 1-0. I'll go with that.

Hamilton v Wesleyan (@Wesleyan) - BennettRank (which still has Wes rated too high) makes Wes a 1-goal favorite, while Massey (which may have Wes rated too low) says Hamilton 1-0. I'll split the difference and say a 1-1 tie.

Bates v Trinity (@Trinity) - BennettRank (which also still has Trinity rated too high) makes Trinity a 2-goal favorite, while Massey say Trinity 1-0. I'll go with Massey.

Amherst v Tufts (@Tufts) - Best defense against one of the best offenses. BennettRank makes Amherst a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says 1-1. It doesn't seem like Tufts offense is as potent as earlier in the season. I'll go with Amherst 1-0.

Williams v Conn (@Conn) - Before the start of the season, this would have looked like a walk-over for Williams. But Conn has shown that they are a good team this year.  BennettRank (which still has Conn rated too low) makes Williams a 2-goal favorite, while Massey says a 1-1 tie. I'll go with Massey.

Bowdoin v Brandeis (@Brandeis) - Finally a decent non-league game. BennettRank makes Bowdoin a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says Bowdoin 1-0. I'll go with that.

Game of the weekend is Williams @ Conn.  This game used to be a laugher for the Ephs, but not this weekend.  Game is at Conn and the Lady Camels are a good team.   Can the young Conn team continue its great start?  I  believe they can.  Conn 2 Williams 1.

[Becks]

Games scheduled for Sun, Sept 28:

Bates v Amherst (@Amherst) - BennettRank makes Amherst a 3-goal favorite, while Massey says Amherst 1-0. Bates has been playing pretty well apart from their 6-0 shellacking by Tufts. Amherst has a great defense but mediocre offense. I'll say Amherst 2-0.

Hamilton v SUNY Canton (@Hamilton) - BennettRank makes Hamilton a 4-goal favorite, while Massey gives Hamilton a 100% chance of winning and predicts Hamilton 9-0. Even with Hamilton playing back to back days, this one has blowout written all over it. This year, SUNY Canton is one of the worst D3 programs in the country. They have already lost 3 times by 7 goals or more. And it's not like they are playing Messiah. I'll say Hamilton 8-0 and suggest that Hamilton try to schedule Union, Skidmore or William Smith next year instead.

[Ocean 1]

Saw the Williams v. Conn game, a home game for Conn which Williams won 3-0. No doubt Conn is a young, much improved team vs. previous seasons but simply didn't have the depth or style of play to run with the Ephs.

Conn's kick and run play v. Williams possession style of play was no match. And while the Ephs only outshot Conn 14-10, they dominated possession by a wide margin and the Ephs 2nd wave of players shared field play about equally with William's first wave in both halves.

Interesting to see the difference in rankings between Massey and Bennett for Conn...Bennett ranking is #104 while Massey is #15.

By my estimation Conn is not a Top 25 team yet...convincing wins over lesser programs just don't move the needle, notwithstanding their home win over Midd who are still ranked #25. Will be interesting to see how they continue to fare in NESCAC competition this season.

[amh63]

Amherst meets Bates at home.  First back to back regular conf. Game that I can recall.  Interesting scheduling.  Is it because of the addition game this season?  Anyone have any background on this or should I be annoyed at the Amherst coach?  Not really since Amherst plays Bates in two other sports today.

[amh63]

Amherst wins over Bates 2-1 today at home.  It was Amherst 2-0 at the half.  I left the game and came back with 10 minutes to go...Amherst 2-1.  In the last 10 minutes, it seemed to me that Amherst was dominating the play again and being more aggressive.  It was a warm day and many of the players seemed over heated.

[Becks]

I watched Hamilton's 2-1 win over Wes. While Wes was never a big favorite to win this, it was a somewhat disheartening loss, considering that Massey rated this game as Wes's best chance to win a league game. Injuries have significantly weakened the squad.

[All NESCAC]

Saw the Williams v. Conn game, a home game for Conn which Williams won 3-0. No doubt Conn is a young, much improved team vs. previous seasons but simply didn't have the depth or style of play to run with the Ephs.

Conn's kick and run play v. Williams possession style of play was no match. And while the Ephs only outshot Conn 14-10, they dominated possession by a wide margin and the Ephs 2nd wave of players shared field play about equally with William's first wave in both halves.

Interesting to see the difference in rankings between Massey and Bennett for Conn...Bennett ranking is #104 while Massey is #15.

By my estimation Conn is not a Top 25 team yet...convincing wins over lesser programs just don't move the needle, notwithstanding their home win over Midd who are still ranked #25. Will be interesting to see how they continue to fare in NESCAC competition this season.

Agree.  Watched the 2nd half of Willams vs Conn and while Conn has some good players, Williams still has more and much more depth.  Williams pinged the ball around the field and I was very impressed with their style, skill and speed.  I must say Williams first two goals were very very soft goals, but overall Williams dominated.  The young conn team still has a way to go, but they will learn from this and hopefully continue to get better each game.  I believe Conn will continue to win a number of NESCAC games this season and will prove to be a major thorn for most of their opponents the rest of the season.

[rudy]

Watched the Tufts Amherst game.  It was a game of two halves.  First half played close with Tufts getting 2 very good chances off corner kicks that just missed the net.  Amherst had some shots but none that were real dangerous.  Second half Amherst controlled the ball completely.  Tufts looked tired.  Looking at stats Tufts had 0 shots and 0 corners in second half with 8 shots and I think 4 or 5 corners in first half.   I think the heat and the small bench hurt them. 

[Becks]

Games scheduled for Sat, Oct 4:

Conn @ Bates - BennettRank makes Bates a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says a 1-1 tie. I'll go with Massey.

Wesleyan @ Colby - BennettRank makes Wesleyan a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says a 0-0 tie. I'll agree with Massey again.

Trinity @ Bowdoin - BennettRank makes Bowdoin a 1-goal favorite, while Massey say Bowdoin 2-1. I'll say Bowdoin 1-0.

Tufts @ Middlebury - BennettRank make Middlebury a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says a 2-2 tie. I'll say 1-1.

[amh63]

For the record.....Amherst wins over Hamilton on a wet grass field and in the rain..3-0.  It was 1-0 at the half.  Did not watch the 2nd half as I went to the Amherst vs. Middlebury football game in VT. 
Unusual sports day for Amherst.  All the games played today, Amherst shut out its opponents...football, volleyball and both mens and women soccer games....all Amherst wins. 

[Jump4Joy]

amh63: great dedication to wind your way up to Midd to support the Jeffs on the gridiron!
To add to Amherst's success yesterday: field hockey also claimed victory.
Interesting that a struggling Trinity (winless in conference) took top-o-the-table Bowdoin to OT. Maybe weather was a factor.
Way too much schedule left to speculate on the qualifying 8 for the 'CAC post-season. Meanwhile, the Polar Bears have home field advantage in their crosshairs. Can Williams blemish their perfect conference record?

[Becks]

Comments on Sat, Oct 4 games:

Conn 2-0 Bates - Stats show a clearly deserved win for Conn. Conn outshot Bates 22-4 and out SOGd them 13-2. Conn very much looking like a top 4 team. First time since probably ever.

Colby 2-1 Wesleyan - Stats show a very even game, with Wes with the edge if anything. My impression from watching very choppy video (and the stats by halves) was that Colby had a bit better of the play in the first half, while Wes had the better of the play in the 2d half. Wes slightly outshot Colby 10-9 and SOGs were even at 6-6. Wes out cornered Colby 8-2, including 5-1 in the 2d half. Wes starting to look a bit snake-bit this year both with injuries and not getting results in close games. I think last year they were a bit lucky to have made the NESCAC tournament. So far this year they have out-shot 2 NESCAC opponents (slightly) Bates and Colby and gotten no points from either game, while last year they did not outshoot a single NESCAC appointment but yet tied a bunch and won 1 such game 2-0.

Bowdoin 1-0 Trinity - This was the predicted result. Bowdoin's defense is excellent this year, but their offense is pretty mediocre. Bowdoin outshot Trinity 19-12, but Trinity actually out SOGd them 8-7.

Amherst 3-0 Hamilton - Stats actually show a very even game, certainly much closer than the score. Amherst only outshot Hamilton 18-17 and only out SOGd them 11-10.

Middlebury 1-0 Tufts - Stats show a deserved win for Middlebury, as Tufts' offense, so impressive early in the season, was totally shut down. Middlebury outshot Tufts 15-3 and out SOGd them 4-1.

[Becks]

We're halfway through the league season, so I thought I'd compare how the teams are doing so far this year to how they did last year.

Amherst - Amherst is clearly improved from last year, and the improvement have been on both offense and defense. GF has improved from 1.4/g to 1.7/g, while GA has improved slightly from 0.4/g to 0.3/g.

Bates - It's a bit of a surprise that Bates sits tied for 3 at this point, because while their offensive production has improved significantly, the defense has gotten worse and is the leakiest in the league. GF has improved from 0.6/g to 0.9/g, but GA has worsened from 1.7/g to 1.9/g.

Bowdoin - In past years, Bowdoin has typically been a fairly high scoring team with a mediocre defense. This year they've flipped the formula.  Bowdoin's defense is excellent this year, but their offense is pretty mediocre. GF has declined from 1.8/g to 1.4/g, but GA has improved significantly from 1.0/g to 0.4/g.

Colby - Stats-wise, Colby is exactly the same team as last year. Both  last year and so far this year, their GF is 0.6/g while their GA is 1.4/g.

Conn - Clearly the most improved team from last year. Both offense and defense have improved significantly. GF has improved from 1.0/g to 1.5/g, while GA has improved from 2.1/g to .8/g.

Hamilton - Hamilton is a bit of a mixed bag. Their offensive production has improved significantly but their defense has slipped slightly. GF had improved from a league-worst 0.5/g to 1.2/g but GA has worsened from 1.3/g to 1.8/g.

Middlebury - Midd is one of two teams that have suffered the biggest drop-offs from last year. Both offense and defense have worsened substantially. GF has declined from 1.3/g to 0.6/g and GA has worsened from 0.5/g to 1.2/g.

Trinity - Trinity is the second of the two teams with the biggest drop-offs from last year. GF has declined from 1.5/g to 0.6/g and GA has worsened from 1.0/g to 2.2/g.

Tufts - Overall stats-wise, Tufts is substantially improved this year. GF has improved from 1.4/g to 2.0/g and GA has improved form 1.4/g to 1.0/g. The improvement in GF stats, however, a largely the result of their 6-0 pounding of Bates in week 1 and their 3-1 win over Colby in week 2. Since then, Tufts has only scored 1 goal in 3 league games. So at this point in the season, I would say that the stats flatter their degree of improvement, particularly on offense.

Wesleyan - Wesleyan's offensive production is so far up very slightly from last year, but its defense has become more porous. GF has improved slightly from 0.7/g to 0.8/g, but GA has worsened from 0.9/g to 1.6/g. Lower level stats support the the overall trends: shots per game are up slightly (from 9.1 to 10.4), but so are shots conceded per game (from 18.6 to 19.6), and saves percentage is down a bit (from 0.895 to 0.814).

Williams - Williams is improved over last year, with the improvement being entirely on offense. GF has improved from 1.4/g to 2.5/g. GA has remained steady at a very good 0.5/g.