NESCAC 2014

[jc2]

Let's assume that each of the top 4 seeds has an 85% of advancing into the next round. The chance that all 4 advance is ~52%. 

[jc2]

One more NESCAC regular season game today that will decide the last playoff spot. Looks like Hamilton and Wes are out.

There's an old adage that when a team wins it's because the players played well. When a team loses, it's because they were poorly coached.

What role did coaching play in the Wes season? Did the team improve as the season went on?

[Becks]

One more NESCAC regular season game today that will decide the last playoff spot. Looks like Hamilton and Wes are out.

There's an old adage that when a team wins it's because the players played well. When a team loses, it's because they were poorly coached.

What role did coaching play in the Wes season? Did the team improve as the season went on?

Not sure the Wes team got either significantly better or worse relative to other teams as the season went on. If the defense was more porous toward the end of the season, it is easy to blame that on injuries. Only real obvious coaching mistake I can point to is that my daughter should have gotten WAY more playing time. . . .

Nice thing is that team spirit stayed very good right through the end of the season. Very nice bunch of girls.

[Becks]

Comments on NESCAC quarterfinals:

Williams 1-0 Colby - Based on stats, game was not as close as the score. Williams outshot Colby 20-3 and out SOGd them 9-2.

Middlebury 1-0 Amherst - Weird stats. Amherst outshot Midd 16-5, but only 1 of Amherst's 16 shots was on goal and Midd out SOGd them 3-1. Amherst out CKd Midd by 7-1 but Midd scored on their one and only CK.

Conn 3-0 Trinity - Stats indicate that the game was somewhat closer than the score. Conn outshot Trinity by 18-6 and out SOGd them 8-4.

Bowdoin 4-0 Tufts - Again, stats indicate the the game was close than the score. Bowdoin outshot Tufts 19-10 and out SOGd them 12-5.

[Giggs]

Actually, the score indicates how close the game was.

[GUBFL]

Went to the Bowdoin/Tufts game, weather was miserable!!! On a very wet surface, almost anything can happen, but after about the first 10/15 minutes, it was clear who the better team was. Felt bad for Tufts who had a hard time getting over mid field in the second half.

Now on to the semis. On paper, Williams over Middlebury and Bowdoin over Conn and Williams over Bowoin in the final. After watching the earlier Bowdoin/Conn, Bowdoin was the stronger team, but Conn is vastly improved over prior years so who knows.

[jc2]

The last 10 days have been rough for Amherst. They have now lost 3 straight games, two of them to unranked teams. Could this unlucky stretch have cost them an NCAA bid or is their resume still good enough to get an invite?

[jc2]

Went to the Bowdoin/Tufts game, weather was miserable!!! On a very wet surface, almost anything can happen, but after about the first 10/15 minutes, it was clear who the better team was. Felt bad for Tufts who had a hard time getting over mid field in the second half.

Now on to the semis. On paper, Williams over Middlebury and Bowdoin over Conn and Williams over Bowoin in the final. After watching the earlier Bowdoin/Conn, Bowdoin was the stronger team, but Conn is vastly improved over prior years so who knows.

Massey gives the following win probabilities for the semis:

Midd v Williams: 16% / 71%
Bowdoin v Conn: 40% / 45%

If you assume that each team as an equal chance of winning if a game ends in a tie and goes to PKs, the probability of advancing to the finals are:
Williams  77.5% / Midd 22.5%
Bowdoin 47.5% / Conn 52.5%


Looking at it slightly differently, the chances of seeing a particular finals matchup:
Williams v Bowdoin  36.8%
Williams v Conn       40.7%
Midd v Bowdoin       10.7%
Conn v Midd            11.8%

[All NESCAC]

Went to the Bowdoin/Tufts game, weather was miserable!!! On a very wet surface, almost anything can happen, but after about the first 10/15 minutes, it was clear who the better team was. Felt bad for Tufts who had a hard time getting over mid field in the second half.

Now on to the semis. On paper, Williams over Middlebury and Bowdoin over Conn and Williams over Bowoin in the final. After watching the earlier Bowdoin/Conn, Bowdoin was the stronger team, but Conn is vastly improved over prior years so who knows.

Massey gives the following win probabilities for the semis:

Midd v Williams: 16% / 71%
Bowdoin v Conn: 40% / 45%

If you assume that each team as an equal chance of winning if a game ends in a tie and goes to PKs, the probability of advancing to the finals are:
Williams  77.5% / Midd 22.5%
Bowdoin 47.5% / Conn 52.5%


Looking at it slightly differently, the chances of seeing a particular finals matchup:
Williams v Bowdoin  36.8%
Williams v Conn       40.7%
Midd v Bowdoin       10.7%
Conn v Midd            11.8%

Great Statistics....I'll go with the 40.7%  Williams vs Conn.

[Ocean 1]

Interesting developments on the final NCAA Regional Rankings vs. last weeks rankings (10/29) that will play a key role for those teams jockeying for at-large bids next week:

- Williams maintains its #1 ranking with a record of 15-1-0

- Conn drops from #2 to #5 position despite improving their record from 12-2-0 to 14-2-0

- They are replaced by MIT who rise from #5 to #2 ranking by improving from 12-3-2 to 14-3-2

- Brandeis hangs-in at #3 with a mixed record going from 11-3-1 to 12-4-1 week over week

- Bowdoin improves from #6 to #4 on the strength of winning two more games to come in at 12-3-0

- Amhesrt drops from #4 to #7 with their record dropping from 11-3-0 to 11-5-0

I don't understand the Conn and MIT position exchange, particularly given Conn's superior Strength of Schedule (per Massey) where Conn is ranked #17 and MIT #44.

Any thoughts?

[All NESCAC]

Interesting developments on the final NCAA Regional Rankings vs. last weeks rankings (10/29) that will play a key role for those teams jockeying for at-large bids next week:

- Williams maintains its #1 ranking with a record of 15-1-0

- Conn drops from #2 to #5 position despite improving their record from 12-2-0 to 14-2-0

- They are replaced by MIT who rise from #5 to #2 ranking by improving from 12-3-2 to 14-3-2

- Brandeis hangs-in at #3 with a mixed record going from 11-3-1 to 12-4-1 week over week

- Bowdoin improves from #6 to #4 on the strength of winning two more games to come in at 12-3-0

- Amhesrt drops from #4 to #7 with their record dropping from 11-3-0 to 11-5-0

I don't understand the Conn and MIT position exchange, particularly given Conn's superior Strength of Schedule (per Massey) where Conn is ranked #17 and MIT #44.

Any thoughts?

Ocean1...I am as puzzled as you on Conn's drop (literally jaw dropping)...can't understand it.  Although have done is to continue winning.

[All NESCAC]

How about those Lady Camels! This is a young and improving Conn team and they went out to Billsville and beat the only 2 teams they lost to this year....it wasn't pretty but they got it done.  Sure makes this weeks regional rankings look pretty silly (which they were). How about the reserve centerback coming off the bench donning the keeper Jersey and making 3 PK saves....great coaching move. Conn and Williams are both good teams....go NESCAC in the NCAAs!

[All NESCAC]

just saw the D3 NCAA selections and placement...all I can say is WOW did Conn get hosed.  At 15-2-1 (PK win over Williams is considered a tie) not only they don't get to host a playoff game, but they also have to travel to NJ and likely meet 16-1-2 Montclaire State on their home field in game #2 if they advance.   Yet somehow MIT at 14-4-2 gets to stay home and host, and to boot Bowdoin (who they just beat on a neutral field) gets to stay in New England.  Unbelievable.  They were ranked 2nd in the Region two weeks ago and all they did was win their last 4 games and they get dropped down to #5 when they beat two teams ranked above them (and Williams on their home field).  Utterly head scratching given their season and who they have beaten.

[onetouch]

First, congrats to Conn.  A really good season and an outstanding coaching job.  I saw them in person Saturday and watched on video Sunday.  They had a game plan and stuck with it.

While others might be willing to dig into this in more depth, I suspect that the strength of schedule outside of conference might have hurt them.  I read your comments and took a look at the out of conference games.  Albertus Magnus, Johnson & Wales, St. Joseph (ct), Coast Guard, and Eastern Ct., is probably not strong enough.  They will need to schedule some stronger teams if they want to host.  I'm sure that this will be part of Coach Riker's plan in the future and that he knows it well.

[All NESCAC]

First, congrats to Conn.  A really good season and an outstanding coaching job.  I saw them in person Saturday and watched on video Sunday.  They had a game plan and stuck with it.

While others might be willing to dig into this in more depth, I suspect that the strength of schedule outside of conference might have hurt them.  I read your comments and took a look at the out of conference games.  Albertus Magnus, Johnson & Wales, St. Joseph (ct), Coast Guard, and Eastern Ct., is probably not strong enough.  They will need to schedule some stronger teams if they want to host.  I'm sure that this will be part of Coach Riker's plan in the future and that he knows it well.

One touch you are probably correct, but MIT's cupcake list of Mt Holyoke, Clark, Wellsley, Smith, Salem St and Emerson can't be ignored, nor can their 4-0 lost to Tufts....but it is what it is.  Being the new kid on the block Conn won't get any jump balls from the committee....hopefully that will change in the coming years.