2014 NCAA Tournament

[7express]

while MW is probably only the 3rd or possibly even 4th best team in their half.

You sure about that?

Stolen from the WIAC page, which was stolen from the MIAA page.

Stolen from the MIAA page:

This is all per Massey, rankings in parens:


Probabilities of going to Final Four:

IWU (3) 49.2%
Wheaton (6) 32.5%
Calvin (9) 12.0%
Dickinson (25) 6.3%

Wisconsin-Stevens Point (1)   67.8%
Wisconsin-Whitewater (2)   24.3%
Texas-Dallas (10)   5.9%
Emory (34)   2.1%

Amherst (7)   52.1%
Richard Stockton (12)   30.3%
Plattsburgh State (11)   17.0%
Morrisville State (177)   0.6%

Mary Washington (14)   43.1%
Williams (17)   21.9%
Virginia Wesleyan (21)   17.8%
Albertus Magnus (18)   17.1%

Yah, I agree.  If you take the poll's into consideration, they are the 3rd best team.  if you disregard the poll's I think Va Wesleyan has more talent.  If that game was taking place on a neutral court, I would easily pick Va Wesleyan to advance.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I do think Mary Washington is a strong team, but the rest of their group is also strong.  Wheaton may be a bigger threat to IWU than some of the other second best teams are to the top team in each bracket, but there are also a number of teams with little chance.  Each of those teams in the Mary Washington could win and few would be surprised.  Albertus would obviously be the most surprising, but they're no Morrisville State.

[Greek Tragedy]

I was reading the Pointer preview and it said aince 2000 at least one sectional host has made it to the Final Four but all four have never made it. So I posed the question as a poll.

This data sounds familiar:
http://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2014/sectional-hosts-announced

And sometimes posters like to read information on their own team's website.   

[Pat Coleman]

I was reading the Pointer preview and it said aince 2000 at least one sectional host has made it to the Final Four but all four have never made it. So I posed the question as a poll.

This data sounds familiar:
http://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2014/sectional-hosts-announced

And sometimes posters like to read information on their own team's website.   

Good thing those schools are reading ours, then.


modified for formatting, incredibly

[Pat Coleman]

Thanks! I saw that I had blown it earlier and was so ashamed I couldn't bring myself to fix it.

[Greek Tragedy]

Any thoughts and predictions for tonight?

I will start with the Stevens Point sectional.

Its going to he another close game for Point. Looks like Emory knows how to score with the syarters averaging 22, 17, 10, 10 and 7 points. They also bring some height with 6'8, 6'5 and 6'5. As usual, Point may have trouble with that. Outside shooting will be key for Point. Tillema is due for a huge game and Heuer can't get into foul trouble. Its going down to the wire in another single-digit game with Point again pulling out a slim win.

I know little about UT-Dallas as well. From what I read, Whitworth was the toughest game for them and they needed a miracle to pull that one out. Whitewater is clicking on all cylinders and I see them winning easily, pushing a 15-20 point margin victory.

[nescac1]

Emory didn't exactly dominate a weaker-than-usual UAA this year.  They rely heavily on two guys, but two guys who aren't as good as WIAC's big two.  They received a very favorable draw in the tourney.  Stevens Point is at home and I have a feeling they already received their wake-up call in the tourney.  I think they come out energized, and that both they and Whitewater win by 15-20 setting up the expected WIAC showdown. 

Similarly I like both CCIW teams.  I thought Wooster was a bit overrated all season.  They just didn't have the interior presence Wooster teams typically have, and I thought Dickinson would beat them (why I picked Wixted for the fantasy team, although I should have picked Honig!).  Dickinson is a solid team, but Wheaton is on fire right now, and should win a close game.  I think Calvin-IWU is also a close game but IWU playing at home with massive crowd support is too tough. 

Amherst -- Plattsburgh really depends on whether Connor Green, who missed the first Amherst tourney game with an ankle injury, is healthy.  If he plays and is not limited I like Amherst by about 10-12.  If Green is out then it's a true toss-up.  I'm guessing he plays after a week and a half to rest it, but who knows.  Stockton by double digits setting up a good battle for Salem.

Toughest to call is the fourth bracket.  Two really even match-ups.  I think despite playing on the road VWU should have a lot of fan support playing in Virginia.  They have a ton of tourney experience, the best player on the floor in Woodmore, and a bit more interior muscle than Mary Washington.  I like them to win by about 4-5 in a game that goes down to the wire. 

Of course I have to pick Williams over AMC, but I think that will also be a really, really close game.  Williams has more guys with the ability to score/shoot the ball than AMC has faced all year.  I think that AMC will struggle to defend Williams' balanced offense system where any of the top six guys can go off at any particular time, and where the offense generates a lot of good looks.  I have a hunch Duncan Robinson is due for a break-out game in his third NCAA game.  On the other hand Williams has struggled with quickness all season -- the four Eph losses have been to teams with very quick players 1 through 4, and the Ephs had trouble at times defending Mitchell, which was not a great team but also had a quickness advantage at most positions.  AMC likewise is a much quicker, more dynamic one-one-on team than Williams.  Davis and Watson will present big match-up problems for the Ephs.  If either team's lone dependable big guy gets into early foul trouble, that could also swing the contest.  I think the Ephs' tourney experience and balance will win the day as they eek out a close victory, but it could go either way. 

[northb]

  I think Calvin-IWU is also a close game but IWU playing at home with massive crowd support is too tough. 

I think that is muted to a significant degree--Calvin's players have had exposure to intense crowd support at opposing teams' courts, and Calvin's fans travel pretty well, too.  Whatever point differential you give for home vs. away should be cut in half, at least.

[sac]

I believe its also the end of spring break at IWU

[iwumichigander]

I believe its also the end of spring break at IWU

Correct - end of spring break for Wheaton and Dickinson also.  Large crowds are not going to bother Calvin, Wheaton or IWU.  Dickinson might be another story line.

[John Gleich]

Any thoughts and predictions for tonight?

I will start with the Stevens Point sectional.

Its going to he another close game for Point. Looks like Emory knows how to score with the syarters averaging 22, 17, 10, 10 and 7 points. They also bring some height with 6'8, 6'5 and 6'5. As usual, Point may have trouble with that. Outside shooting will be key for Point. Tillema is due for a huge game and Heuer can't get into foul trouble. Its going down to the wire in another single-digit game with Point again pulling out a slim win.

I know little about UT-Dallas as well. From what I read, Whitworth was the toughest game for them and they needed a miracle to pull that one out. Whitewater is clicking on all cylinders and I see them winning easily, pushing a 15-20 point margin victory.

I've got some thoughts/stat analysis on the WIAC page for Emory/SP.

[Gregory Sager]

Any thoughts and predictions for tonight?

I will start with the Stevens Point sectional.

Its going to he another close game for Point. Looks like Emory knows how to score with the syarters averaging 22, 17, 10, 10 and 7 points. They also bring some height with 6'8, 6'5 and 6'5. As usual, Point may have trouble with that.

If Emory doesn't have the services of 6'5, 210 senior forward Jake Davis (22.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg), it's all academic: UWSP will win in a walkover. Davis sat out last Saturday's win over Centre -- some sort of injury or illness, most likely -- and he obviously wasn't missed, but UWSP is a completely different animal than Centre. Davis, who has garnered nearly 2,000 points in his career, is a quiet assassin; you don't think he's all that and a bag of chips while you're watching Emory, and then you check the stat sheet at the end of the game and you find out that he'd wound up being the game's high scorer. He's an outstanding shooter who can also take it to the hole, which opens up his free-throw shooting possibilities (he averages 88% from the line).

I think that Emory's a significant underdog even with Davis. Without him? Forget it.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Just got home from dinner.  Apparently Morrisville was able to dictate tempo pretty well.  No way Richard Stockton wants to play a game in the 80s.  A testament to their talent that they're still in it.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Morrisville State - our first Elite 8 team.  How many people called that one on their bracket??

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Does this mean Williams is better than Central Connecticut?