BB: Pool C

[Ralph Turner]

 I cannot remember what year the Pool C bids increased because of the current March Madness contract.

I think that it was 2006 when the extra Pool C bids expanded from 4 to 12 to 14.  We must consider that when looking at the number of Pool C bids that a conference receives.

There is no comparison between D1 and D3 in baseball. The economics are different.

[JohnnyU]

Predictions as of New Regional Rankings:

POOL A IN

School	Conf	Region
Linfield	NWC	W
Rowan	NJAC	MA
Cortland State	SUNYAC	NY
Cal Lutheran	SCIAC	W
Trinity (Texas)	SCAC	W
Salisbury	CAC	S
Bridgewater (Va.)	ODAC	S
Farmingdale State	SKY	NY
Widener	MACC	MA
Endicott	CCC	NE
Susquehanna	LAND	MA
MIT	NEWMAC	NE
Misericordia	MACF	MA
Worcester State	MASCAC	NE
St. Josephs (Maine)	GNAC	NE
Castleton State	NAC	NE
Haverford	CC	MA
Covenant	USAC	S
Mitchell	NECC	NE

POOL A PREDICTIONS (LIKELY WOULD GET POOL C IF THEY LOST)

School	Conf	Region
UW-Whitewater	WIAC	MW
Webster	SLIAC	C
Eastern Connecticut	LEC	NE
Marietta	OAC	ME
St. Thomas	MIAC	MW
Amherst	NESCAC	NE
Buena Vista	IIAC	C
Concordia (Ill.)	NATHC	MW

POOL A PREDICTIONS (POOL C CONTENDER IF THEY LOST)

Augustana	CCIW	C
Wooster	NCAC	ME
St. Scholastica	UMAC	MW
Concordia-Texas	ASC	W
Rochester	LL	NY

POOL A PREDICTIONS (WOULD NOT GET POOL C IF THEY LOST)

Ripon	MWC	C
Keystone	CSAC	MA
Adrian	MIAA	ME
La Roche	AMCC	ME
Washington and Jefferson	PrAC	ME
Anderson	HCAC	ME
Staten Island	CUNYAC	NY
Gallaudet	NEAC	S

POOL C LOCKS

School	Conf	Region
Shenandoah	ODAC	S
Heidelberg	OAC	ME
UW-Stevens Point	WIAC	MW
Southern Maine	LEC	NE
Emory	UAA	S
Case Western Reserve	UAA	ME
Moravian	LAND	MA
Birmingham-Southern	SAA	S
Ithaca	E8	NY
St. John Fisher	E8	NY
Kean	NJAC	MA

POOL C CONTENDERS

School	Conf	Region
Rutgers-Camden	NJAC	MA
Washington U.	UAA	C
Tufts	NESCAC	NE
George Fox	NWC	W
Baldwin-Wallace	OAC	ME
Salem State	MASCAC	NE
UW-La Crosse	WIAC	MW
Wartburg	IIAC	C
Rhodes	SAA	S
Brockport State	SUNYAC	NY
Chapman	SCIAC	W
Alvernia	MACC	MA
Illinois Wesleyan	CCIW	C
John Carroll	OAC	ME

[Spence]

I cannot remember what year the Pool C bids increased because of the current March Madness contract.

I think that it was 2006 when the extra Pool C bids expanded from 4 to 12 to 14. 

Ugh those were the bad old days. Thank goodness that didn't last long.

[mideastfan2]

...and Pool C is threatening to get even cloudier as Marietta and Heidelberg are both in the loser's bracket in the OAC tournament.  One will have to battle their way out of it, and beat John Carroll twice on championship day to grab the Pool A bid.  Otherwise, a lot of bubble teams will be holding their breath that the OAC doesn't get 3 bids (JCU, HEID, MAR).

[cubs]

Pool C teams MIGHT have dodged another bullet, as Whitewater scores four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning and a solo run in the tenth inning, to defeat Stout 15-14 in the opening game of the WIAC Tournament....

[Spence]

I don't know if I've ever seen that high scoring of a first round game in a tournament of a "power conference" team.

Maybe they just have "power" hitters and the pitching leaves something to be desired?

[cubs]

LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....

Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?

[Spence]

LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....

Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?

We're wondering the same about the OAC. Difference is that Heidelberg finished 2nd in the regular season in a 10 team league. Stevens Point finished 3rd in a 7 team league.

[cubs]

LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....

Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?

We're wondering the same about the OAC. Difference is that Heidelberg finished 2nd in the regular season in a 10 team league. Stevens Point finished 3rd in a 7 team league.

Have been told they have a high SOS...  Any idea where it ranks Nationally?

[ADL70]

LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....

Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?

We're wondering the same about the OAC. Difference is that Heidelberg finished 2nd in the regular season in a 10 team league. Stevens Point finished 3rd in a 7 team league.

Not that that has anything to do with selection.

Stevens Point's SoS, which does, is #4 0.592

[cubs]

Thanks!!!!

[ADL70]

You can find SoS on d3baseball.com under the news tab lots of other good stuff too.

[Spence]

http://www.d3baseball.com/seasons/2014/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

Both Point and Berg have really solid SOS numbers, as do a number of other teams in the OAC and WIAC. Just don't know if it would be enough vs. a team that also has a pretty good SOS and won their conference regular season, or really solid Pool Bs.

Marietta losing today further mucks up the situation as they split at Berg, won the league by 2 games, and did better (albeit not great) in the conference tournament.

[Spence]

One of the ways that this story could end up writing itself is by looking at regional rankings.

6 teams in Pool C that are either in now or likely to end up in the top 1/3 of their region's rankings (top 2 in 6-team, top 3 in 8+): Moravian, USM/ECSU, Kean, Marietta, Shenandoah, Ithaca, (Case Western), (Emory). UW-Whitewater may yet be added here.

6 teams in Pool C are likely to end up in the top half of their region's rankings: Augustana, Rutgers-Camden, Heidelberg (even with their flameout it's hard to see them going past 4th), Birmingham Southern, St. John Fisher, Baldwin Wallace.

So that's 12 of 14 that seem pretty likely. Maybe 13 if Whitewater falls (get it?).

In my spreadsheet I put question marks by the NE trio of Salem State, Tufts and Amherst, as well as UW-Stevens Point. Tufts beat Amherst today and Salem State is 4th in the RR right now and they really can't go anywhere but down. Amherst is 3rd but after today I'm guessing Tufts would be ahead of them and 5th place Endicott. But that could change tomorrow.

UWSP is currently 3rd, but lost their first tournament game and faces an elimination game. Concordia would likely jump them if they're eliminated and we haven't even talked about UW-La Crosse yet even though they finished ahead of SP in the conference.

Add Wash U, George Fox and Alvernia to the NESCAC and WIAC (and a bit of OAC if John Carroll wins in 1) intrigue and you probably have most of the teams battling for the final couple of spots.

[Spence]

LaCrosse last undefeated team at WIAC Tournament....

Does WIAC get three teams (Whitewater and Stevens Point) in if LaCrosse is able to win it all tomorrow?

We're wondering the same about the OAC. Difference is that Heidelberg finished 2nd in the regular season in a 10 team league. Stevens Point finished 3rd in a 7 team league.

Not that that has anything to do with selection.

Stevens Point's SoS, which does, is #4 0.592

I bet it matters if the same teams that finish above you in the league finish better than you in the tournament. I imagine the coaches that mostly make up the committees would favor the team that did better in what every coach considers the most important games on their schedule: conference games.