2014 West Regional - McMinnville, OR

[Jack Parkman]

  Should be Lutes or maybe even another team from the ASC?

I could be way off on all of this but I believe GF has a better winning percentage against regionaly ranked opponents.  Remember, once ranked, always ranked.

PLU- 2 wins 6 losses  .250%
Champan- 2 wins 6 losses .250%
George Fox- 3 wins 5 losses .375%

I honestly see PLU as their own worst enemy.  Their season ended earlier than everyone else and they played a lot of non d3 games (I know, it's tough up there).  Although maybe not the best situation, George Fox playing Linfield at the very end of the year was crucial for them.  It shows how much of a boost that 1 game gave them.

I hate to say it but I really don't think the NWC should get 3 teams in but we all know what happens with the NCAA and the $$$.  It's possible that the west could end up like this: *I'm saying it's possible, not that I think it will end up like this.

1. Linfield
2. Cal Lu
3. Trinity
4. George Fox
5. PLU
6. ASC Champ

That eliminates a flight but I really don't know if this would happen.  The only way the ASC could get a 2nd team in is if someone beats Concordia in the title game.  Otherwise, it's a 1 bid league.

I really cannot see 3 NWC teams in the regional, however, as a preemptive maneuver, Chapman could say "Hey, we'll take a bus to McMinnville," it's only an 18 hour or so drive.............just joking, but hey....

I agree 100% that 3 NWC teams wouldn't be right but we have seen the decisions the NCAA has made in the past.  If anyone is getting screwed in this region it would be Chapman, which really would be an asolute shame.

[CrashDavisD3]

If Concordia TX doesn't win the ASC but still goes why is it Chapman that would get kicked instead of say Fox? chapman has better numbers don't they?

Not in the regional rankings, which are the numbers that count right now as both teams are done (GFU is 4th, Chapman is 6th). But another loss on the CTX resume could well drop them below Chapman.

Also- I "get" that Fox going 2-3 against Linfield is more impressive than PLU going 0-4. But like Tigerfan said, how does head to head not mean more???

Hmmm... which of these two teams is better?
-Well they have pretty much the same record... very similar, very good SOS... what else can I look at?
-PLU did finish ahead of Fox in the NWC... but only by one game, let's keep looking.
-Well they both played this one good team a few times, that's something!
-Oh but wait they played an entire schedule's worth of common opponents.. so I guess it doesn't make a ton of sense to compare that way, because they've both beaten teams the other has lost to...
...
...
-IF ONLY THERE WAS SOME WAY THEY COULD PLAY IT OUT ON THE FIELD TO DETERMINE WHO WAS BETTER!! UGH!
-Oh they did? WELL WHO WON?
-Oh PLU took the series? THEN WHY ARE WE EVEN HAVING THIS DISCUSSION?!

I agree that head to head should trump everything else. Pac Lu has been in this position before where they may get left out again. The only way to end this discussion for them is win your conference Pool A bid otherwise expect to stay home. You leave it in the hands the magic DIII baseball formulas for Pool B/C and committee's to determine who is in and who is out. Every year it seems like someone will always not get in that appears to deserves getting in.

A way to help eliminate some of this would be the last seed would be a 1 game play in game. BUT I know it will cost too much of NCAA's precious money that dribbles down to the DIII level. You could add 1 play in game for each region.

[Westside]

So, do you guys think the regional will be more offensive than last year? There were barely 5 runs scored per game over 11 games.

I think the ball carries a bit when it is warm in McMinnville.

[Jack Parkman]

So, do you guys think the regional will be more offensive than last year? There were barely 5 runs scored per game over 11 games.

I think the ball carries a bit when it is warm in McMinnville.

I'm not sure if it will be in the 1st round games as I think each team has a legit "ace".  Haddeland from Linfield, Osaki from Chapman, Cox from CTX, Peterson from Cal Lu, Speer from Trinity, Zarosinski from GF and maybe Lubking from PLU.  After that I have absolutely no clue at all.  Some darn good hitters in the region as well.

[108 Stitches]

Championship baseball is all about pitching and defense. Plus if a pitcher is not getting it done he will be pulled quick since so much is at stake. From what I remember Linfield has a pretty big yard. I would expect a lot of close 1 run games.

[NWBaseballFan10]

So, do you guys think the regional will be more offensive than last year? There were barely 5 runs scored per game over 11 games.

I think the ball carries a bit when it is warm in McMinnville.

I'm not sure if it will be in the 1st round games as I think each team has a legit "ace".  Haddeland from Linfield, Osaki from Chapman, Cox from CTX, Peterson from Cal Lu, Speer from Trinity, Zarosinski from GF and maybe Lubking from PLU.  After that I have absolutely no clue at all.  Some darn good hitters in the region as well.

Assuming the rankings and teams stay the same, I would not be surprised if runs are at a premium like they were last year in Texas. There should be a lot high quality arms on display next week in McMinnville. Aside from Cal Lu (who still has some good starters and Roth), I would say each team's main strength is pitching. Below is a brief look at some of those arms we can expect to see.

In terms of Linfield's field, the turf infield slows most of the groundballs that would likely get to the outfield if they were hit on harder dirt surfaces. The length of the fences play more favorably to hitters however.

Pitching outlook:

1) Linfield (team era 2.16)

• Haddeland - reigning National Pitcher of the Year who continues to put up video game like numbers
  Thomassen - 2014 NWC Pitcher of the Year and his career record stands at 23-2
  Brandon - 4-year starter whose career record is 24-4
  Manley - Top reliever (22.2 IP, 1.19 ERA)
  Huckins - All-league closer from last season (season #'s are 1-0, 2.84 era, 6.2 IP)

2) Trinity (team era 2.35)

• Speer - 17-1 over past 2 seasons with an era in the mid-1.00 range
  Gray - mid to upper 80's lefty (3-0, 2.11 era, 42 IP)
  Walker - similar to Gray (maybe slightly lower velo) (4-2, 2.54 era, 56 IP)
  Bogese - hard throwing right hander who can hit low 90's but has control issues (5-1, 3.77 era, 45 IP)
  Turner, Flores, Griffith - Have not seen personally, but I'm assuming they are quality right handers with some good velo

3. Cal Lu (team era 3.49)

Peterson - Hard lefty with good swing-and-miss stuff (8-2, 3.95 era, 7.79 k/9)
Hebda - mid 80's righty (6-1, 3.88 era, 65 IP)
Peters - Tall deceptive lefty (6-3, 3.25 era, 80 IP)
Roth - High 80's closer and sometimes long reliever (4-2, 11 saves, 1.57 era)
[/list]

4. George Fox (team era 2.48)

• Gartner - Game 1 starter last two years, command righty who locates well to both sides of the plate (10-2, 2.56 era, 95 IP)
  Zarosinski - Upper 80's to low 90's guy with a good hook (7-3, 1.99 era, 86 K's)
  Harris - Lefty reliever who locates well (32 IP, 1.38 era)
  Buckles - mid 80's righty with decent off speed (6-1, 2.50 era)

5. Concordia (team era 2.24)

• Weinschenk - If my memory serves me right, mid-to-upper 80's righty with good off speed
  Cox - transfer from Texas, assuming plus stuff and velo
  Pope, Harmon, Donahue - No idea
  

6. Chapman (team era 3.14)

• Osaki, Mcgee, and Watson - all hard throwing RH's with plus breaking balls
  Smith and Riddle - I'm assuming they are pretty similar

[Ron Boerger]

LeTourneau just sent CTX to the ASC losers bracket, 8-2.

[Strike1]

If Letourneau can win they league tourney I would say they along with Concordia get in. chapman deserves to be in there as we'll.

[108 Stitches]

CTX is not reg. ranked. They win or stay home. Actually they are but do they drop below chapman?

[Jack Parkman]

CTX is not reg. ranked. They win or stay home. Actually they are but do they drop below chapman?

WEST   

1.   Linfield   30-3   33-7
2.   Cal Lutheran   34-8   34-8
3.   Trinity (Texas)   33-8   33-8
4.   George Fox   23-11   28-12
5.   Concordia (Texas)   27-12   27-12
6.   Chapman   28-12   30-13

Man, I would think it would be tough for CTX to get in ahead of Chapman simply because they have (or would have) lost 2 more games.  I see the ASC as a 1-bid league no matter what.

[Ron Boerger]

CTX will play UTD tomorrow; the Comets got a two hit complete game shutout over Sul Ross (7-0) to qualify for tomorrow's elimination game.    They split their two games earlier this season.

I don't think 29- or 30-14 gets CTX in if they don't win the ASC.

[Strike1]

Maybe CTX and Chapman get in and no fox? Who knows.

[Westside]

Maybe CTX and Chapman get in and no fox? Who knows.

Chapman and CTX are ranked behind Fox already. If CTX needs an at-large bid, that means they lose two games this weekend. Chapman and Fox have no games left. How would an idle team jump another idle team? Let alone an idle team and a team that loses two games in a weekend... On top of that, Fox is 15 minutes from the regional site. There is no incentive at all to randomly drop them out.

[Spence]

Not that we haven't seen crazy stuff before, but it sure looks like the only team with a legitimate shot at a Pool C from the West is George Fox.

More likely than not that a team from another regional will fly to Oregon, probably from the Central or Midwest I would think.

[Strike1]

You're right, that wouldn't make much sense would it? Curious how things would line up if they were playing in tx or ca.