2014 West Regional - McMinnville, OR

[Spence]

Game three: Trinity vs UW-Stevens Point
Zack Speer (8-1, 1.79 ERA) vs. I tried to look at their schedule and have no idea who their game one starter should be.

Luke Watson (7-1, 2.03 ERA).   The rest of their starters are surprisingly middling.

When you have the SOS they do, probably everyone has thrown against someone good. My first guess would be Feyereisen, but that's all it would be; a guess.

[Whatagame]

ILVBB is spot on. I am thinking that Trinity will not have any trouble next year getting the ASC teams filling in their Tuesday night games.  They did the right thing this year going to Hendrix and Millsaps, plus their regular home/away with Chapman. Chapman actually has a better chance by going independent again.

Yes, scheduling Milsaps, Hendrix and Chapman was nice, but despite all that, Trinity's SOS was still 197.  Chapman was 203.  The highest ranked West team this year was George Fox at 92nd.  It seems like the West Region teams can play any combination of games amongst themselves and it will not solve the SOS issue regarding at-large bids.  It looks like teams need to somehow get out of region for games, way out of region.  The OAC placed 4 teams in 3 different regionals this year.  The NESCAC placed 3 teams into 3 different regionals.  1/8th of the total field is from those two conferences.

I'd love to see teams be able to get out to Florida, or the mid-west or East Coast, but the realities of that are very difficult.

[tigerfan_2001]

I think the Trinity/UWSP game is as tough of a first round draw as it gets for Trinity.  UWSP might not have the insane numbers but thats a tough draw.  I think it comes down to which Trinity team shows up.  Lets be honest, they didn't exactly waltz right through their conference tournament.  On the otherhand, I could be way off...

Know anything about UWSP.  They have good offensive numbers...and with the way their schedule sets up, it is hard to find a patter on their arms.  Their best arm (stats wise) didnt start their tournament game 1, but neither did Trinity's. 

[Ralph Turner]

Don't count out Letourneau just because they dont look like other teams in this regional on paper. This team has alot of seniors and play with good heart.

That aside, I still expect them to go 0-2. I dont think the ASC was very good this year.

My predictions will come later today or tomorrow.

LeTu is a very good home team but barely .500 on the road; this will be the first time they've played two time zones away since at least 2008 (if not ever).   They've got some talent (and I'd think they'd start Cody Whitley, 7-2, 1.85 over Copeland in the first game) but this is asking a lot from a first-time playoff participant.    Playing Linfield at Linfield ain't like a trip to Alpine or Clinton.

But you might get there just as quickly!   

[CrashDavisD3]

Teams that did not get in have nothing to complain about. They did not win it on the field.

Predictions for Day 1 Winners
Linfield
Cal Lu
UW-SP

[ILVBB]

I have watched enough D3 games to know that there is not that much difference between good teams no matter where they are. For one conference to get 4 teams and another conference to get 3 shows that the system is flawed when a region that covers half of the country gets only 4 teams.

Much was made about regional rankings. The reality is they are meaningless when selections are made on a national basis.

It is nice that west teams are getting out and traveling to other west areas for play. But it does nothing to increase SOS. Each of the four western conferences play 75% +/- games in their respective conferences. Because each conference is isolated; there is little or no chance to enhance SOS without a making an effort to play teams which by their nature have stronger SOS.

For years Chapman as an independent could "manage" their SOS. If you don't play weak teams you can "enhance" your SOS.

If you are in a conference where half or more teams have sub .500 W/L records you are starting with a weak SOS. Then if you are need to either travel 6-8 hours for a mid-weak game, just to get a game in, you have little or no chance at generating a strong SOS.

In the past it seamed as that the committee gave "credit" to the west for their weak SOS. This year when you get 4 teams from one conference and 3 from another; that "credit" is gone. The system is broken; if selection is on a national basis with the impact of a national SOS playing such an important roll, let's skip the charade of "regional rankings", publish a real national ranking based upon selection criteria.

[BigPoppa]

ILVBB is spot on. I am thinking that Trinity will not have any trouble next year getting the ASC teams filling in their Tuesday night games.  They did the right thing this year going to Hendrix and Millsaps, plus their regular home/away with Chapman. Chapman actually has a better chance by going independent again.

Yes, scheduling Milsaps, Hendrix and Chapman was nice, but despite all that, Trinity's SOS was still 197.  Chapman was 203.  The highest ranked West team this year was George Fox at 92nd.  It seems like the West Region teams can play any combination of games amongst themselves and it will not solve the SOS issue regarding at-large bids.  It looks like teams need to somehow get out of region for games, way out of region.  The OAC placed 4 teams in 3 different regionals this year.  The NESCAC placed 3 teams into 3 different regionals.  1/8th of the total field is from those two conferences.

I'd love to see teams be able to get out to Florida, or the mid-west or East Coast, but the realities of that are very difficult.

It is difficult, but all of the northern schools do it. They find a way to put their teams into contention despite the disadvantage of the weather.

[ILVBB]

It is much easier (and cheaper) to manage your SOS with a 2-hour bus ride versus a $30,000 trip to play a couple of games.

[Whatagame]

ILVBB is spot on. I am thinking that Trinity will not have any trouble next year getting the ASC teams filling in their Tuesday night games.  They did the right thing this year going to Hendrix and Millsaps, plus their regular home/away with Chapman. Chapman actually has a better chance by going independent again.

Yes, scheduling Milsaps, Hendrix and Chapman was nice, but despite all that, Trinity's SOS was still 197.  Chapman was 203.  The highest ranked West team this year was George Fox at 92nd.  It seems like the West Region teams can play any combination of games amongst themselves and it will not solve the SOS issue regarding at-large bids.  It looks like teams need to somehow get out of region for games, way out of region.  The OAC placed 4 teams in 3 different regionals this year.  The NESCAC placed 3 teams into 3 different regionals.  1/8th of the total field is from those two conferences.

I'd love to see teams be able to get out to Florida, or the mid-west or East Coast, but the realities of that are very difficult.

It is difficult, but all of the northern schools do it. They find a way to put their teams into contention despite the disadvantage of the weather.

I guess this will be the last time I'll whine about this for the current season, but the NWC in particular also deals with weather (rain, and yes, ice and snow for the Eastern schools) in addition to extreme distance and isolation.  Any out-of-conference away game requires a flight.  I recall Spence stating earlier this season on another thread that he does not recall Marietta ever taking a single flight.  That's a great position to be in, not complaining, its just reality.

[wildcat11]

Looking forward to the regional and hope to catch as much action as I can. 

The lesson that has been taught, once again, is that the only sure fire way to make the post-season is to win your conference. 

[CrashDavisD3]

Yes win Pool A conference bid. No Crying in Baseball. All teams had chances to not lose games they should have won and did not and did not win games against the better teams

Example.

Chapman lost 3 to Trinity and 4 to Cal Lu. This is one of the reason they did not get a Pool C bid.
George Fox lost 3 to Williamette, 2 to Pac Lu and 3 to Linfield and finished 3rd in the NWC conference

Both had their shots on the field.

[Westside]

Game three: Trinity vs UW-Stevens Point
Zack Speer (8-1, 1.79 ERA) vs. I tried to look at their schedule and have no idea who their game one starter should be.

Luke Watson (7-1, 2.03 ERA).   The rest of their starters are surprisingly middling.

When you have the SOS they do, probably everyone has thrown against someone good. My first guess would be Feyereisen, but that's all it would be; a guess.

I noticed Baseball America listed Feyereisen as the top prospect in D3 and the pre-season Pitcher of The Year, but his numbers look rather pedestrian compared to those accolades. One thing is for sure, they have a lot of depth (8 pitchers with more than 19 IP) and it looks like they are willing to give the ball to a handful of pitchers in a big game.

[Ron Boerger]

According to the UWSP preview Feyereisen and Cam Seidl were WIAC pitchers-of-the-year in prior seasons. 

[Teddy_Ballgame]

Yes win Pool A conference bid. No Crying in Baseball. All teams had chances to not lose games they should have won and did not and did not win games against the better teams

Example.

Chapman lost 3 to Trinity and 4 to Cal Lu. This is one of the reason they did not get a Pool C bid.
George Fox lost 3 to Williamette, 2 to Pac Lu and 3 to Linfield and finished 3rd in the NWC conference

Both had their shots on the field.

I'm sorry, I'm getting really tired of hearing this argument. Nobody is discussing whether the Pool A teams deserved to make the tournament. They did. However there are two mechanisms for selection. One works, one (arguably) didn't.

The fact that the autobid exists- necessarily exclusive to one team per conference- has no bearing on deciding whether the correct at large team was chosen. When you play in a conference without a tournament that includes the best team in the country, I think you're allowed to be upset at the system when you don't get in. Winning it on the field is a meaningless statement in this context- all Pool C teams lost a number of games, and all had some bad losses. That's baseball. Assess each team's entire body of work and determine who is the best choice. It's not easy- clearly. Particularly when there's little regional overlap for most teams and especially out west. But a process with no consistency or transparency that produces jarring results is 100% open to scrutiny.

I think we can all agree that the d3baseball.com folks know a heck of a lot about d3 baseball. They've gone through this drill every year. And they had Fox in pretty easily. The NCAA produced something much different than D3. That doesn't reflect poorly on d3baseball.com, that reflects poorly on the NCAA for being unable to produce any predictability in their selection process. It's a joke.

In terms of what's weighted- the heavy reliance on OWP/OOWP is generally ok (who you're beating absolutely matters), but it doesn't make much sense when comparing teams from different regions and one of those regions experiences heavy isolation. The northeast can typically bus out a few hours and get high quality non-conference, non-region games pretty easily at low cost (these are D3 athletic budgets after all). Should west teams do more to get quality non-conference games? Sure, but when the NCAA shuns consistency it's hard to know what it means to put together a good schedule.
*I personally think that each region should get to fill out a full regional with their own teams, but I understand why that's not as feasible across the board in D3.

<Rant over>

I'm gonna be boring and go with the higher seeds in first games- Linfield, CLU, Trinity. I think CLU has the most vulnerability because Petersen hasn't quite been as lights out as last year, but their offense is too good. Big question for CLU going through the tournament is how much they can get out of their starters, and how early and often they go to Roth. Don't want to pile too many innings on him early if you can avoid it.

Based on the information gleaned on these boards, I think Linfield and Trinity (not surprisingly) have the best setup for a tournament like this. Lots of depth on the mound and good defensively. Granted, a team like UWSP might have underwhelming pitching numbers on the whole because of the way their schedule is set up with clustered games, but it does mean they'll have plenty of guys with a good amount of innings. And they certainly have a program that knows how to win- kind of the Chapman team from the late 2000's. They were always scary even when they limped into the regionals, because they'd been there. They'd be my dark horse team, just on a hunch.

[BigPoppa]

I agree that not having an NWC tourney may have hurt some teams, but each conference determines how it wishes to hand out the bid. The NWC knowingly puts its baseball teams at a disadvantage in terms of a national comparison when they don't give a second (or third) team a chance to get hot and make some noise prior to the bids being handed out on Selection Sunday.

I am certain the fristration needs to be directed not at the committee, but at the NWC and the NCAA oversight group that created the framework for the selection of teams.