Women's OAC 2014

CrusaderNation · October 26, 2014, 05:27:02 PM

Fair assessment of the game for sure WOAC... that has been the difficulty for this young Capital team all year. They are talented, but, with the loss of Murray, a freshman forward and another returning striker they simply have struggled to put the ball away on a regular basis.

With the loss it appears the Streaks will be hosting the Crusaders again next Tuesday in the first round of the tournament... provided they do not fall to the #6 seed. Going to be a difficult road for Capital this time around, but, it is similar to 2011 when they had to go on the road to defeat #1 Otterbein in the semi-final before besting the streaks in the final.

Mike always does a good job preparing his kids and it was a gritty senior led effort for sure. After falling by a combined 8-2 scoreline in the OAC finals to the Crusaders I am sure that game had a little extra significance to that group of seniors!

Oh well... time for the silly season to begin.. here come the playoffs!

Cardfan · October 27, 2014, 08:57:18 PM

With the season winding down lets hear some predictions for the seatings of the conference tournament. Except for the Cards getting the number one seed the next five are wide open. What are your thoughts?

woacfan · October 27, 2014, 10:38:14 PM

Hi Cardfan!

First, Congratulations to Otterbein. They always have an excellent team.

This is what the standings are presently:

Otterbein 6-0-1
Baldwin Wallace 5-1-1
Ohio Northern 5-2-0
John Carroll 4-1-2
Capital 4-2-1
Mount Union 4-3-0

All of the other teams are mathematically eliminated, so these are your 6 playoff teams.
The bottom three teams in this group are virtually deadlocked.

The games that look important to me are Ohio Northern hosting B-W on Wedneday. A win by the Polar Bears makes them second seed. John Carroll plays Mount Union. If JCU loses it swaps spots with MU. If they beat MU and ONU wins then the Blue Streaks end up in third and ONU gets second. It gets tricky for B-W. Capital has Heidelberg and should win.

That brings us to Saturday. BW plays at Capital. That game is going to mean a lot for seeding. It could move Capital as high as number 3 and drop BW down to 5th.

Otterbein plays Mount Union on Saturday. Technically, if the Cards lost their last two games they could lose the first seed if B-W wins their last two games. I don't see that happening. Their game on Saturday should be a walk through. That is a testament to the season they've played. The last weekend in the OAC usually determines conference champ. I don't see that happening this year. However, if the Cards let the subs play on Saturday, MU might get the win and jump up in the seedings.

So here my predictions (realizing they are pure speculation at this point)

Otterbein
ONU
JCU
Capital
MU
B-W

I am not picking on B-W. I think they have the hardest remaining schedule at ONU and at Capital. Those are both tough places to play. If they win one of those two games they will be seeded second or third.

I think ONU is quality and perhaps the biggest threat to unseat the Cards in the playoffs. Capital is always a very dangerous squad.

Finally, with home field advantage throughout, Otterbein will be tough to beat. The grass field is a challenge for visiting teams.

I'd be interested in knowing anyone else's thoughts. I am horrible at the math involved. I am basing my analysis on who seems to have a hot hand right now...

PS....If the Blue Streaks had beaten instead of tied Marietta they would still be in the hunt for first seed. That game was an expensive lesson for JCU....Hopefully, they keep that in mind while they close out the season.

Cardfan · October 28, 2014, 10:36:10 PM

They no long play on the grass in the back, they have new turf in the stadium, I think that's part of the reason they are playing so well. I would not consider the old field an advantage in any way.

woacfan · October 29, 2014, 06:18:08 AM

Home field is always an advantage in my book...even in DIII soccer!
I think your Cards should win the conference playoffs this year. Certainly didn't mean to detract from their skills. How do you see the playoff picture?

My real wild card is B-W. The results of their two games will make a big difference in the standings.

CrusaderNation · October 29, 2014, 09:44:10 PM

1 Seed Otterbein
2 Seed ONU
3 Seed BW
4 Seed JCU
5 Seed Capital
6 Seed Mt. Union

3 v 6 BW over Mt.Union
4 v 5 Cap over JCU

Semi #1 Ott v Cap
Semi #2 ONU v BW

Final Cap v ONU

Tournament winner: ONU

Just my prediction based on how things shook out today

woacfan · October 29, 2014, 09:47:43 PM

CN thanks for putting the Streaks 4th, but I think they drop below MU now. I think the tie tonight between ONU and B-W means that Otterbein can rest their starters Saturday. It wouldn't surprise me to see MU win that one. I put JCU 5th or 6th now.

woacfan · October 30, 2014, 07:55:34 PM

This is where the conference stands as of today.

Otterbein 7-0-1
Baldwin Wallace 5-1-2
Capital 5-2-1
Ohio Northern 5-2-1
Mount Union 5-3-0
John Carroll 4-2-2

Saturday's Matchups.

Women's Soccer

Baldwin Wallace at Capital 11:00 AM

Ohio Northern at Marietta 11:00 AM

John Carroll at Muskingum 7:00 PM

Mount Union at Otterbein 7:00 PM

BW at Capital. Let's pick Captial.
ONU at Marietta . We'll pick ONU.
JCU at Muskingham. Pick JCU
Mt. Union at Otterbein. That's the tough one. Let's pick Mt. Union because Otterbein doesn't need to win to get top seed.

The standings under that scenario

Otterbein 7-1-1
Ohio Northern 6-2-1
Capital 6-2-1
Mount Union 6-3-0
John Carroll 5-2-2
Baldwin Wallace 5-2-2

Per the OAC rules:

Two-team Ties. If two teams tie for a position and one beats the other during the
regular season, that team receives the higher seed. If the two teams tied during the
regular season, compare each tied team's record against the team occupying the
highest position in the standings and continue down through the standings until one
team gains the advantage, thereby drawing the higher seed.

ONU hold the tiebreaker over Capital because they beat them in the regular season.
JCU and B-W tied during the regular season. Then we go to the top of the standings and compare each teams record versus that team. Otterbein beat B-W and JCU. JCU beat ONU. ONU tied B-W. Therefore JCU is fifth seed.

Finally, let's now assume Otterbein decides they want an undefeated season and goes all out v. Mount Union. They beat Mount Union. Now the records are:

Otterbein 8-0-1
Ohio Northern 6-2-1
Capital 6-2-1
John Carroll 5-2-2
Baldwin Wallace 5-2-2
Mount Union 5-4-0

Under scenario 1:

Ott and ONU get byes.

Cap hosts BW
Mt. Union hosts JCU

Under scenario 2:

Ott and ONU get byes.

Cap host Mt. Union
JCU hosts B-W

JCU's dream scenario to the finals is to win in the first round of the playoffs and pray for a matchup against ONU in the second round. ONU is such a great team and extremely well coached, but of those top two teams they are the one that the Streaks match up best with.

How is my math? Any flaws in the logic? Let me know! WOAC

CrusaderNation · November 01, 2014, 09:17:20 PM

Sound effort tonight in a really dominant performance by the Crusaders. Other than giving up a 55 yard free kick goal that was aided by 20mph winds there was not really much of a threat posed by BW. Cap had a goal called back early on a really suspect off side call, but, eventually their consistent attacking pressure broke down BW. Don't think W even had a shot in the 2nd half while Capital earned 9 corner kicks.

So, although Cap and ONU tie for 2nd they will drop to the #3 seed with their hiccup a few games ago. Tough road appears to have JCU coming to see Capital on Tuesday in what will surely be a bit of a grudge match with that loss costing Capital the by and #2 seed. Then the winner will head to Ada on Thursday.

Looks like Mt. Union at BW and JCU at Cap Tuesday

Hoping that it will be Cap at ONU on Thursday with BW at Otterbein

If Cap can avenge their only two losses of the year in the OAC they will see Otterbein in the final meaning they would face the three teams who gave them blemishes this year in conference play! If BW can overcome Ott the Crusaders could actually host a final if they won on Tuesday and Thursday.

Now it really begins with the only spot in the NCAA for the OAC this year on the line!

woacfan · November 02, 2014, 07:49:44 AM

OAC PLAYOFFS:

First Round -Tuesday, November 4 (Game times TBA)

No. 6 John Carroll (4-2-3) at No. 3 Capital 6-2-1 - 2:00

No. 5 Mount Union (5-4-0) at No. 4 Baldwin Wallace (5-2-2) - 7:00

Second Round -Thursday, November 6 (Game times TBA)

Winner of #4/5 game at No. 1 Otterbein (8-0-1)

Winner of #3/6 game at No. 2 Ohio Northern (6-2-1)

Finals - Saturday, November 8 (at highest remaining seed) LIVE WEB STREAM

I think it will be Cap and B-W advancing. Cap then goes to ONU and B-W goes to Ott.

Ott. beats B-W. ONU v. Cap is anyone's guess.

Good luck to everyone!

CrusaderNation · November 04, 2014, 05:59:31 PM

From the opening whistle the Crusaders played with a dominance not seen all year. JCU struggled just to get ball over midfield in possession and if it weren't for the post and some good goalkeeping this one would have been over as soon as it started.

Congratulations to the seniors and coaching staff at JCU... great job this season.

woacfan · November 05, 2014, 09:55:06 PM

Congrats to Capital on a strong win. They definitely were the more talented team. Didn't see the game live, but watched it later. Don't know if I agree 100% that it was "dominance" because the game did go to overtime, but they clearly were the better team overall and deserved the win. The JCU keeper has been great all year and deserves conference honors.

An interesting weekend ahead. I just don't see B-W beating Ott. So its going to be the Crusaders or the Bears in the final against Otterbein.

CrusaderNation · November 06, 2014, 09:04:28 PM

Capital and BW both take care of business. Otterbein had been living on borrowed time recently so it is not a huge surprise. Not to mention they only sub a few players and some of those got hurt, so, not being a deep team hurts.

Looks like Cap will host BW on Sunday because of Homecoming at Cap on Saturday. Should be an interesting match up to see who still has their legs!

woacfan · November 10, 2014, 03:54:41 PM

Belated congratulations to Capital on a fine season. Go make the OAC proud! We're rooting for another deep run and some overdue respect!

CrusaderNation · November 10, 2014, 08:50:22 PM

Thanks WOAC! Unfortunately we still are not in the good old boys favor as we got zero respect with regard to the brackets. Sent to Messiah for opening Pod shows we still have a long way to go. We will do our best and let the chips fall where they will!