Liberty League

[Saint of Old]

So it seems we have come to the point when 15 points may not get an invite to the LL Tourney.

If SLU wins v. Clarkson and finishes with a 12-3 (5-3) record they are still in danger of missing out on post season play if Vassar and Skidmore take care of business.

I think (taking subjectivity out of the analysis) this says a lot about the strength and competitiveness of the Liberty league.

Unfortunately, it  may also lead to the league getting only one bid.

Skidmore
SLU
Vassar

One of these teams will stop playing after this weekend.

[Ommadawn]

Fear not, Saint!  I am pretty confident that stlawus's hypothesis that Bard or Union will get a result will be supported and render 15 points sufficient to get to the LL tournament.  Despite the apparent parity in the league, the relative lack of draws over the course of the season has inflated the number of points required to make the tournament.

[Part_Bart]

Pretty sure the Union v. Skidmore game will be quite the event.
Skidmore has to go forward as they need all the points, Union counters exceptionally well, and they are both aware of the implications.
I'm thinking it will be the tie that all SLU faithful seek.

[Mr.Right]

Like I said before I think Skidmore is a much better side than Union as I have seen both about 3 times this year. They will beat Union and Bard at home. The problem is you mention that Skidmore has to go forward which is true BUT you forget to mention that Union MUST go forward as well if they are to have any chance at the #4 seed. This will open them up immensely which Skidmore has the talent to take advantage of. The problem for SLU fans is that then they will be rooting for a Union / Vassar draw or Vassar loss against a Union team that WILL HAVE NOTHING to play for. That would scare me more

[Ommadawn]

Like I said before I think Skidmore is a much better side than Union as I have seen both about 3 times this year. They will beat Union and Bard at home. The problem is you mention that Skidmore has to go forward which is true BUT you forget to mention that Union MUST go forward as well if they are to have any chance at the #4 seed. This will open them up immensely which Skidmore has the talent to take advantage of. The problem for SLU fans is that then they will be rooting for a Union / Vassar draw or Vassar loss against a Union team that WILL HAVE NOTHING to play for. That would scare me more

Because Union v Skidmore (Saturday) comes after Union v Vassar (Wednesday), it is possible that Union will have nothing to play for when they meet Skidmore.

[Part_Bart]

Wading into deeper water by acknowledging the points that Mr. Right makes while re-iterating that Union will sit back and dare Skidmore to attack.  Skidmore may be the better team, and they may have more to play for by Saturday, but that is more reason for sitting back and countering. Skidmore is slow (and they rely on the impressive #10: Oyeniyi to shore up their back line) and Union is quick on wings.  Could easily be Union's game....

[PFGF]

Union can't score - 1 goal in last 3 LL games. Vassar has 6 goals in last 3 games and 9 goals in last 4 games.

[SandyMac]

Just want to point out that SLU beating Clarkson, while likely, isn't a foregone conclusion. The past few years this has been an absolute battle, and this year won't be any different. I expect the Saints to get 3 points at home and give themselves at chance, but Clarkson would love nothing more than to knock their North Country rivals out of the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

[Kick-grass]

If Slu has any chance of getting in, the result must happen in today's match up between Vassar and Union. Skidmore will play Union this weekend, and Skidmore needs to win to get in. If union lose today, they will lose some grit in that final game vs. Skidmore. Vassar needs to win out to get in. If they win today, they have to beat Bard at Bard this weekend, which in no easy contest. But if someone told the Vassar team in the beginning of the season that they would need to beat bard away to get into post season, they would love those odds. Going to be a lot of people watching the Vassar Union game today!

[deutschfan]

Vassar wins and Union has two red cards--Union players probably didn't appreciate the late penalty that decided the game.  Playing Bard at Bard is no easy task and last year Vassar denied them a winning record and a potential ECAC bid so there will be revenge in play.  New regional rankings have Vassar dropping a few notches as a reward for beating the then number 1 seed.  How does that work?  Last year RPI moved up after losing a league game to Vassar that helped knock them out of the LL playoffs and that move helped them get to the NCAAs.  I don't get it but maybe Mr. Right or some of the other intuitive posters on this board can explain before I withdraw into a world of conspiracy theories.  Las Vegas odds probably have SLU not making the tournament.  Are they done?  Does the ghost of RPI resurface?  So many questions, so much time.     

[Part_Bart]

SLU on outside of LL playoffs -- nervy times in Canton.  They need a win v. Clarkson and Bard finding a result v. Vassar or Union (with the flat metal taste of today's six-yellow-card/two-red-card-and-a-PK loss) beating Skidmore.  I'm losing my twice-repeated enthusiasm for a draw between these two....

Playoff pairings completely dependent on final games.

Based on SOS, SLU not going to get a Pool C bid this year. Vassar MIGHT get a Pool C bid if they make LL final. Their SOS is low compared to Oneonta St. and Rochester -- who seem like locks to get Pool C bids. Hobart MIGHT also get a Pool C bid if they make LL final as their SOS is strongest in LL.  Still, if they lose in finals of LL they will be a six-loss team.... Mr. Right might be enticed to weigh in, but it may be the only LL team in NCAAs this year is AQ.

[stlawus]

Well last year RPI made the tournament off a win against Oneonta, who I believe were #1 in the regional rankings.  Right now Cortland is #1, and SLU beat them earlier in the year.  Will it be enough if they don't make the LL playoff?  The realist in me would think not, but I would have to believe there is a significant chance.  Mr. Right knows a lot more about this, hopefully he offers his 2 cents.

[Mr.Right]

RPI IMO made the tournament last year because of the Oneonta win and Adam Clinton's clout on the committee. Since Duroucher is the chair of the East Committee SLU will a shot especially being ranked #4. I would say their fans MUST ROOT for no upsets these conference tournaments around the country. With 19 Pool C's SLU will be on the bubble. Your best example you would want Vassar to win the LL tournament so they cannot jump SLU in the Final Regional Rankings. I would also be rooting for UR to lose their final games this weekend to drop them below SLU in the rankings. Maybe even have Oneonta getingt upset in their conference tournament and make sure Cortland wins it and also make sure New Paltz and Fredonia get eliminated quickly. Do not even ask me how New Paltz with 10 blemishes are even ranked. I do not remember the last time a team with 10 blemishes was even ranked and they do not even play a very difficult schedule.

[Flying Weasel]

Yeah, New Paltz is unique, at least against the previous 5 years.

In the previous five years, the most blemishes for a team in the Week 2 Regional Rankings was 8:
2011: Roger Williams 9-3-5
2012: RPI 9-4-4, Puget Sound 8-3-5
2013: Hardin-Simmons 6-3-5
2014: Eastern Connecticut 9-5-3, Brockport State 9-2-6, Catholic 8-5-3, Centre 7-3-5
2015: -- 

In the previous five years, the most blemishes for a team in the Week 3 Regional Rankings was 9, happening twice:
2012: RPI 9-5-4
2014: Case Western Reserve 8-5-4

Eight losses in the Week 3 Regional Rankings isn't so unusual:
2011: Roger Williams 11-3-5, RIT 9-6-2, Dickinson 9-4-4
2012: RPI 9-5-4
2013: Hardin-Simmons 8-3-5
2014: Wesleyan 8-5-3, Brockport State 10-2-6, Rochester 8-5-3, Centre 8-5-3, Case Western Reserve 8-5-4, DePauw 10-7-1, Ohio Northern 11-7-1, Carleton 9-6-2
2015: Rutgers-Camden 12-7-1, Rutgers-Newark 13-7-1, Christopher Newport 11-2-6, Luther 11-5-3

However, being ranked and being selected for an at-large berth to the tournament are two different things. In the last five years, the most blemishes for a team selected for an at-large berth is 9: 2014 Brockport 10-3-6.  Next, 8 blemishes: 2012 Emory 10-6-2.  7 blemishes is fairly common for at-large selections.

[Mr.Right]

I agree with the analysis but to be regionally ranked in week 2 of the rankings with already having 10 blemishes is unheard of which you just showed. However, we talking about a team that is not ranked #8(last) in the East. They are actually #5 right behind SLU. If they go on the road on Saturday and win the #4 v #5 game at Buffalo State and then draw against Cortland or Oneonta and lose in PK's I would GUESS they would get a Pool C. If they do not then we can figure the East is only getting 2 maybe 3 At-Large selections. This will be very interesting to see this all play out especially if they win at Buff State. If they lose then it will not matter anyhow