Liberty League

[Flying Weasel]

And my point wasn't to minimize the uniqueness of 10-blemish New Paltz being ranked, but to illustrate it.  But you are right to point out that New Paltz isn't just ranked, but ranked 5th of 8 teams.   The highest any of the 8-blemish teams ranked in Week 2 in previous years was 2014 Brockport State (9-2-6) at 5th out of 7 in the East.  You also had 2012 RPI (9-4-4) at 7th of 9 in the East.  But otherwise these 8-blemish teams were in the final two spots in their region.

Obviously, the fact that over 2/3's of the blemishes are ties, not loses also helps a lot.  Flip that around to 8-7-3 and they are certainly not ranked at 5th.  But the thing that stands out for me is New Paltz's 3-1-1 record versus ranked teams.  In the cases of the 8-blemish teams I list in my previous post, they always had losing RvR with 0 or just 1 wins over ranked opponents.  And as we know, the committee really likes RvR, especially the wins, and New Paltz has that for now.  Their win over Buffalo St., comes off their RvR next week, so their RvR will be a little less impressive at 2-1-1, but that's still much better than we typically see from teams carrying so many blemishes. 

So, in agreement with Mr. Right, this is a very unique thing we are seeing with New Paltz.  It is yet to be seen if they can actually do enough in the SUNYAC tournament to actually get an at-large berth.  Not winning the AQ would mean at least one more blemish (a win or a tie), so 11 blemishes.  Now that would really be something and would certainly make them the most blemished team to get in via an at-large berth.  If Fredonia loses their quarterfinal match, they might drop from the rankings which would further drop New Paltz's RvR to 1-1-1 for the 4th/Final Rankings and at-large selections**.  And the only way Buffalo State maybe gets back in the rankings is by eliminating New Platz in the quarterfinals, which would kill their chances right there.

** - Note, starting next year with the change in the definition of Results versus Ranked to include teams ranked in the previous two rankings, New Paltz's win over Fredonia would already be locked in as part of their RvR, but not this year.

[Saint of Old]

I just want to say that with regards to New Paltz, these boys have spent the last few seasons BUILDING A PROGRAM.
This is still my favorite thing about college soccer.
Other than us have beens rooting on the current crop of ballerz representing the teams we love, watching a program get built is the real joy.
Potsdam Bears have been doing this as well (despite not making it to post season this year).
New Paltz had a very good 2015 and they beat good teams consistently.
That is the measure of a good team, and I think that now they have shocked the SUNYAC their gaze is now turned on shocking the region.

As for SLU and their playoff hopes, I think it is worth noting that if St. Lawrence manages to beat Clarkson on Saturday then:
They will only have sustained 3 blemishes all year (All to playoff teams)
They have beaten arguably the best team in SUNYAC and the Liberty League (Cortland/Vassar).
They are still the 4th ranked team in the region as of yesterday and it is unlikely that any team below them will overtake them.
Also possible the teams above them might drop below them.
Teams above them also have a shot at automatically qualifying.

Don't get me wrong, I would much rather get to the Tourney and win, but I think there remains  atleast a bit of hope if not.

[Mr.Right]

SLU down 1-0 to Clarkson with about 15 minutes to go...They must get this game somehow as it looks like they are dominating stats but just not finishing...They lose this game and their bubble most likely will be burst

[Mr.Right]

Wow...SLU really is having issues finishing...I have tuned in for only 5 minutes but have already seen 2 GOLDEN chances for SLU to score and one of them the striker skied it a mile high...

[stlawus]

That's pretty much the story of the season.  Team's inability to score is going to sink their season.  This was suppose to be an offensive team as well.  Very disappointing.

[Saint of Old]

Best team won today.
Clarkson played with wayyy more heart and desire.

Top scorer for the season 5 goals.
Nothing more need be said.

[stlawus]

And that does it for SLU's season.  Wasted opportunity after wasted opportunity.  An own goal and terrible finishing to end the season.  Did not expect SLU to light the world on fire this season but definitely expected better than this.  Very disappointing.  Oh well, rest of the league is quite strong and should be entertaining to watch.  Hoping that the LL represents well in the NT.

[Mr.Right]

Jeez Skidmore blows a 2-1 lead over Union with 6 minutes left and loses. SLU would have qualified...That stings even more...The LL tournament should be very fun to watch lets just hope Hobart's stream has improved. Vassar's SD stream is like watching dots but its doable...BIG revenge game between Hobart and Skidmore. I think Vassar is on the bubble so if Hobart or Skidmore win the LL we will see 2 LL teams in the NCAA's. If SLU has any chance they must root for another UR loss tomorrow and a Fredonia loss to Oneonta in the SUNYAC Semi's. New Paltz is finished but I do believe Vassar will pass SLU in the rankings Wednsday so it would be helpful for Vassar to win the LL which I do not think will happen. I think winner of Hobart / Skidmore gets it done.

[deutschfan]

Who would have thunk?  Union plays spoiler at Skidmore after a season ending meltdown on Wednesday providing an opportunity for SLU, and a home game for Vassar in the LL playoffs.  How a team like Skidmore which has great defense making up for a one man offense gives up two goals in the last 6 minutes after Skidmore goes up by one is beyond me.  SLU loses at home with 24 shots and putting in the only goal for Clarkson.  Given last year's talented freshman class, and the return of Brandell from injury, SLU should have been another dominant year.  Instead Dede disappears scoring 1 point in League, and Brandell's midfield production is relegated to center back.   SLU will not get a pool c losing at home in its final game to a bottom tier LL team.  At least RPI ended on a winning note last year before the invite they never should have gotten.  Vassar has the only opportunity for a pool C and they must get to the LL final to get it.  If Vassar wins out they likely will be the only LL representative as it means Hobart will have been beaten at home.     

[Part_Bart]

Congrats to Union and Clarkson for unexpected results. 
Heartbreaking end for the SLU seniors.

looking forward, Hobart has had trouble getting results from games with Skidmore and RPI, and Vassar certainly wants to avenge the regular season loss.

If it is Hobart over Vassar in finals them maybe a Pool-C bid goes to Vassar if Oneonta wins SUNYAC over Cortland. However, if either Skidmore or RPI are in LL finals, the league is only going to see the AQ make NCAAs.

Pretty sure the Hobart/Skidmore game will go to OT (nine of Hobart's 17 regular season games went to OT, including five of six LL wins), maybe PKs (so who knows). Thinking that RPI ekes out a win at Vassar this time (they lost 3:2 in regular season).

[stlawus]

Vassar having no issues dispatching RPI. Impressive performance from the Brewers.

Hobart is by far the better team right now, but Skidmore did enough to equalize.  Defending for their lives hoping to nick one from the counter or hold out for PKs.

[d3d3d3]

Skidmore is through on PKs

[deutschfan]

This is Vassar's tournament to lose and playing Saturday at home they won't.  Have to seriously consider a freshman for LL POY.  Hat trick in the semis is very compelling and even if the evaluations are based on the regular season still difficult to forget this performance.  If Vassar wins, Skidmore will not get a bid. 

[d3d3d3]

Do you think Vassar gets a bid if Skidmore wins?

[stlawus]

I think that win today gives them a very good chance at Pool C if they lose against Skidmore.  #2 in regional rankings as it stands. 

If they win saturday I wonder what this does for SLU's Pool C's chances.  I don't think they should get a bid, but they have wins against the #1 and #2 teams in the east region.