Liberty League

[Christan Shirk]

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - October 30, 2019

Rank	School	. Div. III . Record	. Div. III . SOS	. R-v-R .	. Overall . Record	. Prev. . Rank
1.	RPI	13-1-2	0.570	5-0-1	13-1-2	1
2.	Oneonta State	15-2-0	0.554	3-1-0	15-2-0	2
3.	Hobart	12-4-1	0.566	5-2-0	12-4-1	4
4.	Ithaca	11-3-2	0.557	3-1-2	11-3-2	3
5.	Rochester	9-5-0	0.553	2-3-0	9-5-0	--
6.	Vassar	8-5-1	0.584	1-2-0	8-6-1	8
7.	Clarkson	8-4-3	0.545	4-1-2	8-4-3	--
8.	Skidmore	6-5-4	0.579	2-2-2	6-5-4	5

[d3d3d3]

Wow RIT takes down Ithaca in double OT. Bombers 1-2-1 down the stretch here with RPI next on Saturday.
RPI 2, Vassar 0 in the other game tonight

[Bartman]

So if Hobart beats SLU on Saturday, how likely is a Pool C bid based on regional ranking?

[Red Dog]

I am not an expert in these matters so others will know more. However, based on SOS, record and where NCAA regional rank puts them they probably will at least get consideration if they close out strong and do OK in tournament. If they win on Saturday they will get the first round bye.

Ithaca probably will not given last nights outcome. RIT can be a dangerous team. Some strong attacking players - two good goals last night. They could be a presence in the league tournament if they get in.

[Bartman]

Ah yes, the LL tournament, getting a first round bye and getting to finals is probably necessary, but I would think losing to SLU will then require a tournament win.

[deutschfan]

SLU only gets in if it beats Hobart on the road and Vassar beats RIT on the road.

[Flying Weasel]

Just looking at the East Regional Rankings (without putting it in the context of the other 7 regional rankings) and thinking about the numbers usually needed to get an at-large berth, the only team looking good for an at-large berth is RPI.  Hobart's and Ithaca's current SOS would be at the low end for at-large selections and there's no guarantee their SOS will improve much with the conference tournament games as playing RIT, SLU and Vassar would actually hurt their SOS. With RIT yesterday and RPI this weekend, Ithaca will get a slight SOS bump, while Hobart's SOS will drop from finishing the regular season with Bard and SLU, and that will probably put the two on equally footing in the SOS column.  Hobart has a solid advantage in Results vs. Ranked, but that could change some depending who enters/exits next week's regional rankings.

It's amazing how at mid-season, the Liberty League looked very, very good to have three tournament teams, and now it's quite possible it's just RPI if they win the tournament. Neither Hobart or Ithaca has played their way out of an at-large berth yet, but there's little margin for error left, especially for Ithaca.  Now, an Ithaca win over RPI Saturday would certainly change the complexion of things, as would a Hobart loss to SLU.  For the outsider/neutral it's a very intriguing/interesting situation in the Liberty League.

[d3d3d3]

Five teams in, one spot left:

1. RPI (20 points), clinched regular season title and will host semifinals/championship
2. Hobart (16 points)
3. Vassar (15 points)
4. Clarkson (15 points)
5. Ithaca (13 points)
In contention for final spot:
6. RIT (12 points)
7. St. Lawrence (10 points)

-RIT qualifies with a win, a tie OR St. Lawrence tie or loss

-St. Lawrence qualifies with a win AND an RIT loss (RIT and Ithaca both own head-to-head tiebreakers over SLU in 2-way ties with 13 points)

[Saint of Old]

GREAT season.
Great Season.
Perhaps the best in LL in the last decade or so.
Tough coming from a SLU fan, but we are all fans of the game first and foremost.
All these boys hitting the field each week have much much to be proud of I think.

ARE U NOT ENTERTAINED!!!!??

As stated above it is a race between SLU and RIT for that last spot.

I think whoever gets it, this League Tourney could be won by any 1 of the 6 teams which is saying alot for the competitive nature of our league and can only help the teams that do end up dancing this season.

Let the games begin.

Only Big games are played in November!

[Shooter McGavin]

Ithaca has to be in flat out panic mode right now. Started out the year strong with nice results but NYU has underperformed and Messiah was banged up with injuries so even those results look tainted. From what looked like a lock to now the definition of a bubble team...will the Bombers be snubbed again? 11-4-2 with RPI left and they have only won once in the last 5 games (1-3-1). This is not the trend you want heading into playoffs...if they lose to RPI I think they need the automatic bid to get in.

[Flying Weasel]

Ithaca has to be in flat out panic mode right now. Started out the year strong with nice results but NYU has underperformed and Messiah was banged up with injuries so even those results look tainted. From what looked like a lock to now the definition of a bubble team...will the Bombers be snubbed again? 11-4-2 with RPI left and they have only won once in the last 5 games (1-3-1). This is not the trend you want heading into playoffs...if they lose to RPI I think they need the automatic bid to get in.

On paper, before the season started, I expected a very good season from Ithaca--a potential Top 10 team.  After seeing them play Messiah opening weekend, I wasn't as convinced because despite all the key players Messiah was missing (and having less than a week to adjust to some of those losses), I thought Messiah was the better team in that game even though they lost.  And after NYU struggled mightily for the first 3+ weeks of the season, that win didn't really tell us anything. 

Nevertheless, it's quite the change of outlooks from the start to the end of October.  And if they lose to RPI, then I think the only way to stay on the bubble would be to win twice en route to the Liberty final, and preferably getting Clarkson instead of Vassar in the quarterfinals due to the SOS impact.  Results against teams ranked next week are there to stay, but not sure there's any realistic changes in the rankings that would help Ithaca's RvR.  Skidmore could drop out, but that eliminates a tie, not a loss.  They would want Clarkson or Vassar, who they lost to, to drop out.  Vassar plays RIT, Clarkson plays Union to close out the regular season, and losses in those games could make them vulnerable to be overtaken in the rankings.  Vassar's RvR will go from 1-2-0 to 2-4-0 with the RPI loss this week, the early season loss to Rochester and win over Clarkson now counting.  Vassar's SoS will stay the highest or near the highest in the region having played RPI this week, even if that is counted by RIT's drag on their SoS.  Clarkson will lose their win over Plattsburgh St. from their RvR, going from an impressive 4-1-2 to good 3-1-2, and their SoS will fall having played awful Potsdam St. midweek.  Ithaca is losing the tie with Cortland St. from their RvR giving them a 3-1-1 record heading into the Liberty tournament.

Needless to say, a win over RPI tomorrow would be huge for them.

[deutschfan]

Excellent analysis. If Ithaca loses to RPI tomorrow and doesn't win the tourney they will be a six loss team. Tough to get in with 6 losses.

[deutschfan]

Deafening silence on a big day in the LL.  I am starting to get the sense that SLU fans make up the vast majority of this board.  Anyway, Vassar tries to help SLU out by scoring a penalty in the 88th minute to tie RIT and then beating them in overtime.  By then it was too late.  SLU had lost in overtime to Hobart despite going a man up in regulation.  The decades of non-losing seasons comes to an end as does SLU's 2019 campaign.  Ithaca comes up big late against RPI and keeps its Pool C hopes alive.  However, due to Vassar's win, they are now playing all their remaining LL games on the road.  Clarkson puts an exclamation point on the theme that they are still alive and Union ends the season with one of its most prolific scorers in school history having never played in a LL playoff game and with an undefeated non-conference record that now means nothing. 

[SaintsgoMarching]

Congratulations to Hobart who were clearly the better team and deserved to win today.  I really enjoyed watching them play this year... Hiring Bednarsky was the smartest thing they could have done and his work in recruiting is starting to show. I imagine he was thrilled for the victory and also a little bit disgusted with the lack of quality in his alma mater.  I'd like to see AB get a crack at the SLU job one day.  I believe he would do great things at SLU.

And congratulations to the six teams heading to the Liberty League tournament. I enjoyed watching the teams play some damn good footie this year!  Just not my alma matter!  St. Lawrence looked like a team that doesn't really belong in post season.  As much as it pains me to say that, this is time for a  gut check for coaching staff and players.  I played at SLU and have always been a fan of the program. It's hard not to. We built a giant and had BIG success for two decades.  And from the outside looking in it feels as though the DNA of the program has been altered - and not for the better.

Yet I realize my view is limited to watching live-streamed games and thus it's impossible to really know what's going on in the program. I'm just a fan now, and my opinion means little.  But it was shocking to see the level of this year's SLU product. Obviously we SLUnationals hate to see the program take a dip.  Has the bar been lowered?  There is Sibanda and he has real quality. But he is out there on an island at a completely different clip than anyone else and in his absence the team was absolutely lost today.  The team showed very little understanding and there was not enough quality going forward to impact the game. What happened to the Caribbean connection? The California, Colorado and Arizona connection?  The west African connection?  What happened to the NYC connection? MLK High School? Has this coach utilized the recruiting networks that were built over three decades by Bob Durocher and his many talented assistant coaches or is he not honoring the past pipelines that sent so many Division I caliber players to St. Lawrence over the years?  Can someone shed some light please?   

[stlawus]

I'm only a recent alumnus and did not play for the program but have watched and followed the team closely for years now.   Recruiting is most definitely an issue, as are the tactics.   There is some international flair on the team right now, but just within the last 5 to 6 years the guys from San Diego, NYC and the likes have still not been replaced.  Toshack's insistence at playing out of the back has cost this team the past two seasons, as Brockport won the tournament match last year by capitalizing on back passes, and at least half of the losses this year occurred due to similar circumstances.   The 3 at the back simply does not work in this system.   Durocher always had a great back line with the LB and RB contributing to the offense.  Those days seem long gone now.    There are still no pure strikers on the team.     Until this season this program would enter every year with at least a 2nd round or Sweet 16 expectation.  That's been negated in rather rapid fashion.     Like you said, none of us actually know what is happening in the locker room and on the field, but man is it a bummer to see.   Toshack was an assistant coach on the 99 squad and coached in MLS as well, there is no way he doesn't have access to the blue chip recruiting pipelines.  Baffling. 

Anyways, the Liberty League has caught up, and credit goes to the teams that made the LL tourney this year.   Right now Clinton is far and away the best coach in the league right now, and Clarkson seems to be on the right path that once led them to glory in the early 90s.