Liberty League

[Saint of Old]

Anything less than 4npoints fornClarkson this weekend could be really bad news for their qualification hopes.
Vassar and SLU 4 poi ts might mean solidifying a Semi Final spot.
Skidmore horses look like they are at the races this season. Unknowns are Ithaca, RPI, Hobart. RIT and Union still in with a shot.

[deutschfan]

Saint:  I know you have been pulling for the Raptors for many years with the hope that they start moving up the table.  It continues to be difficult.  In 2015 they were supposed to be in the running for an ECAC post season bid if they could just reach .500  They had the two leading scorers in the league that year.  Bard just needed to prevail in their last game against Vassar--they lost 5-0.  Clarkson and SLU have three points for sure this weekend and one or both will have four or more barring a Vassar sweep.  If Vassar does win out they will be in the driver's seat.  My current prediction for bottom 4--Bard, Union, Ithaca who can't score goals, and RIT for being the most under-achieving team since I don't know. 

[Saint of Old]

I think that RIT is going to get that 6th spot over Clarkson.
I know my man Golden Knight will kill me for saying this, but I just dont think CU has figured out the league yet.
Maybe after today I have to eat my words, but hey thats football.
RIT has come back to earth, and there is still time for them to right the ship, if not then no more overseas trips in the near future.

Hobart and RPI seem to be in a similar boat, no one doubts they will get into the tourney, but no one knows just how good they are either once they get there.
Skidmore is a different animal, a horse, they are fighting Vassar and Slu for league dominance.
We will know a whole lot more after this weekend.

[deutschfan]

Based on today's first half my prediction was right—Vassar and Clarkson in a sogfight and SLU having a walk in the park. Vassar will have to play smart, gutty soccer to get a result tomorrow.

[PaulNewman]

As an outsider, today's results in the LL across the board strike me as very disappointing...and not just because of all the draws, but rather no one stepping up and standing out.  Like who other than maybe SLU is truly deserving of a Pool C?

[Saint of Old]

As an outsider, today's results in the LL across the board strike me as very disappointing...and not just because of all the draws, but rather no one stepping up and standing out.  Like who other than maybe SLU is truly deserving of a Pool C?

I can see that point of view, but also consider that this is a league of parity through atleast the top 8 teams.
I still think that the LL should be atleast a 2 bid league.
Everyone is also starting to become desperate.
RPI, Skidmore and Hobart suddenly getting caught up in the scrum, Vassar might join them unless they win at SLU tomorrow.
Clarkson in a must win tomorrow.
Union and RIT  is still alive.
St, Lawrence also has 4 ties on the season and a few more blemishes would take them out of Pool C conversation unless they win the league tourney.

I think the fact that the 5 Seed won the tournament and went to the dance last season tells you just how tough this league really is.

[PaulNewman]

I hope you're right, Saint.  I'd love to see the LL get 3 bids.  But there are different kinds of parity, and I'm not sure this one is the good kind.

[deutschfan]

I have to agree with Paul on this one.  None of today's results were impressive.  SLU gives up 2 goals to Bard at home in a one win victory.  Obvious trap game but still...  Vassar ties Clarkson, a team that Saint picks will not make the LL tourney.  Skidmore ties due to an own goal by Ithaca (whose own goal against SLU led to a SLU win).  And these teams are the best of the lot.  That being said, tomorrow's Vassar-SLU game has the makings of a classic.  SLU Head Coach v. SLU former Assistant.  SLU can basically clinch the regular season title with a win.  Likewise, a Vassar win gives them the head to head for teams with strikingly similar records at this juncture.  Two great midfielders in Sibanda and Fauth.  I shudder to think what a tie does if the end of the regular season standings come down to tie-breakers.

[Saint of Old]

Saint Maxima always has that extra little bit of speed and quickness that a player in the #7 shirt should.
I have predicted that Bard will bite someone this year, was almost SLU last night.  They will be pumped for the game today against Clarkson.

[CU_GKnight]

As far as Clarkson and their chances, I don't take exception to Saint. I think Clarkson is largely a work in progress who played above their current abilities early in the season and is capable of winning or losing (or more likely drawing) against any team in the league on any given day.  I think they got the few bounces this year that they didn't get last year.  Clarkson is largely a solid defensive team that is difficult to break down. I don't see them as a park the bus style team who only tries to hold on and hope for a counter attack goal.  I feel as though they try to play teams straight up with an emphasis on getting players back behind the ball when they lose possession. They currently lack an established goal scorer or offensive threat with top 2 scorers having 4 pts each and next 2 having 3 pts each.  The questions isn't can they defend, but can they score enough to win (and not draw) games.  I agree this is a must win for them as based on previous seasons it takes 11-13 points to make the LL tourney and without OT it may push closer to 11 going forward (2021 had 8 ties in LL and after 6 games we have 10 already in 2022).  With 6 pts in 6 games I would say they need to win 2 of next 3 (Bard and Union at the bottom of the table being the next 2 games) to have a good shot.  going 1-0-2 may do the trick depending on number of draws while 1-1-1 would likely put them on the wrong side of the line.

As far as not having figured out this league, I can't say I agree.  I think they have figured out what they need to do to be a consistent mid-league team and are experiencing the ups and downs of establishing themselves in that space. I think Clarkson has traditionally (late 80's through 2000 and then in the past 6-7 years) been a solid team who every once in a while gets a special player or group of players that pushes them higher (Larry Martin, Mike Kirmse, Matt Nachman, Secko's, Michael King, James Homan, Ian Roeloffs, etc.) for a season or two. I think they have shown a lot of growth over the past few years and have had some very good teams (such as 2019). I think they have clearly separated themselves from Bard and Union at the bottom and I see them pushing themselves into a group with Skidmore, RIT and possibly Ithaca (post coaching change) of teams who have had stints toward the top of the league but no long term success. To me this is a big leap forward when you compare it to the 2000-2015 teams.  I think they have the right staff in place and better support from the university to establish themselves as a mid-tier team and work towards establishing the winning tradition that moves them towards the top.

With regard to LL and the NCAA tournament I see it as league with a lot of parity (as someone noted, not necessarily in a good way) that gets inconsistent results against out of conference foes.  I think you could put the middle part of this league against the middle part of most leagues (except maybe NESCAC and UAA) and get good results due to the depth of the league.  The LL just doesn't have the clear top of the table team that many leagues have.  Without an established front runner it keeps everyone in the mix.  I think in some ways this hurts - for a league like the MAC, Messiah is a clear tourney team and then the conversation falls to who is the potential next team to contend for a tourney nod.  With the LL it is jumble all season long with multiple teams being able to make a case for a bid. I also think results in the NCAA's matter.  If the LL champ regularly went to the final four then I think more teams would get the benefit of the doubt, but if we don't see many LL teams playing the second weekend it support the one bid notion. I think this  is the case with the SUNYAC where Oneonta (and to a lesser extent Cortland) elevate the the league to a potential 3-4 bid conference.

[PaulNewman]

^^^^^^I don't have a rooting interest here, but I totally appreciate this post.  Straightforward, detailed and most importantly exceedingly honest and fair.

I think the conference to analyze in terms of bids from the LL perspective is the Centennial.  My gut reaction is that the Centennial generally has been stronger at the top and in the middle of the pack in comparison with the LL.  Hopkins and F&M typically have been at the top with cameos of various lengths by other teams towards the top like Haverford a few years ago, Muhlenberg a while back, and Dickinson, Swat and Gettysburg from time to time.  BUT, is the Centennial five bids to one bid better than the LL?  No, I don't think so.  In my recollection the cmte usually has been pretty generous with the Centennial and especially last year with five bids with UAA also getting five and NESCAC only four.  For another comparison closer to home for me the NCAC usually gets two and sometimes three bids.  Over the last decade the NCAC with Kenyon and OWU probably has been better at the very top (and now Denison is making a push), but once you get past those three I would say the LL top to bottom is stronger than the NCAC.

[stlawus]

Fairly even game between SLU and Vassar.  Yet another game where SLU hits the crossbar in the final 10 minutes.  Wind was ridiculous, can't remember a game with such extreme wind conditions. 

Great result for RIT today given RPI's stumble against Hobart.  Hobart now sitting in 3rd place. 

[Saint_Dad]

I agree with stlawus.  It's good to see McDougald and Mogul (Saint Maximus) back in action.  It only took them 14 seconds to combine for the goal against Vassar today.  Quite some nifty footwork and through ball by Mogul to see Mcdougald through for a nice finish.   It's also important for the team to be deeper, especially with the Friday then Sunday conference championship and potential NCAA weekend.  SLU was giving Bard a little too much respect in my opinion.  With SLU's strong offense I would love to see them attack more often, especially over the top to the wings as they seem to be open as their opponents get sucked in to SLU's possession game from the back.  Marvin can set these up beautifully.  It looks like it will come down to the last couple games with 5 teams still in the running to win the conference.  Note the new format of the conference tournament this year with number 1 and 2 seeds hosting the semifinal on Friday, with the final at the highest remaining seed on Sunday.  A very strange call in the closing minutes of SLU Vassar game today.  Mogul was taken down and ref points to the spot, only to have a discussion with AR and overturned.  All this with no VAR!  Was looking forward to watching Marvin bury it.

[stlawus]

It looked like Toshack is still easing Mogul and McDougald back in given their injuries.  Both were subbed off with 15 minutes left in the first half and again in the 2nd half, only for Mogul to come back on when Campbell cramped.  Can't disagree with the decision, as both still look to be about 80-90%.  A full week before the next game should get them back to full speed. 

There are quite a few scenarios in the next two weeks.  SLU ultimately controls most of their fate, but it could come down to a tiebreaker with Vassar and also SLU's result against Hobart on the final day of the regular season.  Skidmore is going to be out for blood next week after today's result, and Hobart continues their enigmatic season setting themselves up as a dangerous wild card.  Skidmore can't overlook Union on Wednesday. 

[Saint of Old]

How did Skidmore get dragged back into the war for qualification?
To me it seems like 3 spots might already be locked, but still 5 teams fighting for 3 spots.

Just a reminder that the 5th seed won last year so if you are good enough to make the tourney then you are good enough to win.