Liberty League

Saint of Old · November 01, 2022, 08:53:39 PM

I think you might be right as to the winner dancing.
I do think Vassar has a better shot at this point though.

This league deserves at least 2 bids to the dance. I will keep beating that drum because it is true.

RIT could shock us all and not shock us all at the same time by winning the entire thing and sinking the hopes of all other Pool C hopefuls.
We will see.

stlawus · November 02, 2022, 02:55:09 PM

At least Rochester is out of the RRs but SLU is still behind Vassar despite a better win % and more wins against RR opponents. Pretty much confirms SoS is the only thing being considered. Does seem like if SLU and Vassar both make it to Sunday the league should get 2 bids, but we say this most years and it doesn't happen. However, both games Friday will be tough and I would not be shocked to see chaos.

PaulNewman · November 02, 2022, 03:26:02 PM

SLU faithful....looks like you are in good shape. By my count, SLU is now up to 3 ranked wins...Vassar has none or maybe one and multiple ranked losses. Anyway, obviously Vassar is not the only opponent if it comes to Pool C but the 3 ranked wins with the winning pct record makes SLU much more competitive with teams in other regions in the same range.

Saint_Dad · November 02, 2022, 04:04:30 PM

Yes Paul Newman. The RR is confusing in that this weeks rankings takes into consideration last weeks ranked teams. So without any games being played, SLU would most likely move ahead of Vassar with their 3-1-2 record vs RR teams (they were 1-1-2 based on last weeks teams). Vassar is 1-2-3 vs current teams in RR. 1-2-1 vs last week. So you can see that the rankings, based on last weeks records against RR's are similar. SLU's is much better based on this week and set up well for next weeks rankings.
The LL is deserving of two teams in the tournament. I therefore predict that the winner of the Vassar vs Skidmore game is in the tournament and the other is out. SLU should be in with a win over RIT. It gets complicated if both Skidmore and RIT win. If Skidmore wins tourney, I think SLU will be chosen over Vassar. If RIT wins, then it's Skidmore. Of course this all assumes that either Cortland or Oneonta win their division. Sounds complicated. Best thing to do is to just win!

PaulNewman · November 02, 2022, 04:09:36 PM

Quote from: Saint_Dad on November 02, 2022, 04:04:30 PM
Yes Paul Newman. The RR is confusing in that this weeks rankings takes into consideration last weeks ranked teams. So without any games being played, SLU would most likely move ahead of Vassar with their 3-1-2 record vs RR teams (they were 1-1-2 based on last weeks teams). Vassar is 1-2-3 vs current teams in RR. 1-2-1 vs last week. So you can see that the rankings, based on last weeks records against RR's are similar. SLU's is much better based on this week and set up well for next weeks rankings.
The LL is deserving of two teams in the tournament. I therefore predict that the winner of the Vassar vs Skidmore game is in the tournament and the other is out. SLU should be in with a win over RIT. It gets complicated if both Skidmore and RIT win. If Skidmore wins tourney, I think SLU will be chosen over Vassar. If RIT wins, then it's Skidmore. Of course this all assumes that either Cortland or Oneonta win their division. Sounds complicated. Best thing to do is to just win!

Yes, winning cures all, lol.

PaulNewman · November 02, 2022, 05:31:25 PM

OK, I won't bother you guys anymore here, but I am very confident about SLU now....if I've calculated right, SLU for RvR is 3-1-1 and they could drop to 3-2-1 if they lose the final. So they either lose to RIT and remain at 3-1-1, win and lose final and end up 3-2-1, or win AQ. A draw and PKs could change the numbers just a little but won't impact the three wins. I guess the downside is they can only get a 4th win by winning the AQ but then you won't care.

If Skidmore loses to Vassar they go from 1-2-4 to 1-3-4. If they win and lose the final to RIT, they would be 2-2-4 (or 2-3-4 if RIT won whole thing and got ranked in the final ranking). Skid doesn't have enough margin on SoS to overtake SLU imo given significantly better winning pct and RvR for SLU. If Vassar loses to Skid they end 1-4-3 or if beat Skid and lose final to RIT then 2-4-3 (or 2-5-3 if RIT got ranked). Imo SLU edges Vassar in that scenario although it might be tight. So seems like worst case scenario for SLU is Vassar beating Skid but losing AQ IF SLU loses to RIT.

Bottom line I think it's going to be SLU and Vassar unless Skid wins the AQ and then everyone can sweat out what happens with another bid which one of them will definitely get (or definitely should get).

2nd bottom line....SLU needs to advance past RIT to get RIT out of the picture.

Saint of Old · November 03, 2022, 09:10:08 PM

Big games on tomorrow.
4 teams in the baby dance like it used to be back in da day.
SLU v RIT
I heard a rumor that the SLU coach was gonna have the Saint #10 play Goal Keeper and distribute from the back.

RIT is strange, if they win the league no one would be surprised and everyone would.be surprised at the same time.
I think this game goes to overtime and Saints use the home team advantage and pushes through.

Vassar v. Skidmore
I have been going against a very good Vassar team all year so why stop now.
I think Skidmore gets this one with one of the best strikers around since Adam Beek.

Skidmore v SLU final.

This is one year that predictions have to come with an asterick however.

PaulNewman · November 04, 2022, 02:56:13 PM

Is the SLU video choppy for others with a delay on the commentary?

stlawus · November 04, 2022, 03:14:34 PM

For some reason this season they decided to use a feed off a monitor instead of using the direct feed. No idea why.

Saint of Old · November 04, 2022, 03:27:17 PM

Says alot about how evenly matched this league is when both semi-finals are tied goalless at half.
Skidmore holding tough at Vassar and RIT playing very well at Sandy.
2nd half will be tough on RIT considering they played only a few days ago, but then again, SLU did the job from 5th seed last year so you never know.

d3d3d3 · November 04, 2022, 05:08:08 PM

Wow Skidmore gets past Vassar in PKs. That 6-6 Skidmore keeper saved three PKs

deutschfan · November 04, 2022, 05:44:56 PM

Saint you called the winners. Nice. Will NCAA snub a Vassar team that had zero league losses?

stlawus · November 04, 2022, 05:56:58 PM

Great game between SLU and RIT. Definite playoff atmosphere. Full and engaged crowd along with quality play. Probably the best defensive effort by SLU this season. RIT crowd was a nice group of people, passionate about their team/sons but very courteous to everyone around them. My opinion of the Tigers went way up today.

Seems like a tale as old as time with Skidmore clawing and scratching their way through the league tournament to reach the final. Should be a tremendous game Sunday. Weather might be iffy so I foresee another defensive slog.

Being so high in the RRs you'd think Vassar should be a pool C. There have been snubs but RPI got one a few years back despite missing the league tournament, as did SLU. One would think Vassar is in the same spot since their SOS is not going to go down much.

deutschfan · November 04, 2022, 06:30:27 PM

Here are the potential finals outcomes and Paul Newman can perhaps assist us here. SLU wins; SLU wins in penalty kicks, Skidmore wins, and Skidmore wins in penalty kicks. In each of these scenarios who gets the pool c (s)?

PaulNewman · November 04, 2022, 07:26:01 PM

Quote from: deutschfan on November 04, 2022, 06:30:27 PM
Here are the potential finals outcomes and Paul Newman can perhaps assist us here. SLU wins; SLU wins in penalty kicks, Skidmore wins, and Skidmore wins in penalty kicks. In each of these scenarios who gets the pool c (s)?

First of all, I am just a guy running my mouth on a chat board. There are others who are "experts" at this sort of stuff but they may not chime in.

That said....SLU is in, period.

Vassar and Skid BOTH suffered from not winning today because they both desperately needed a ranked win. Otherwise, they both have a similar number of ranked draws. If Skid beats SLU it's Skid and SLU. If SLU wins, I think Vassar stays ahead of Skid because Vassar already was ahead and they have the superior SoS. Nothing really should change between those two if Skid loses to SLU or fails in PKs. BUT, I think the scenarios with Skid losing or failing to advance very possibly (likely?) leave both Vassar and Skid out.

I will qualify to this extent as I haven't carefully scanned every possible bubble team (or who may become a bubble team that seemed secure before). IF the last couple of spots only involve teams with one ranked win and don't have a really strong SoS then that may put Vassar in play, but again, Vassar's one ranked win is not a great one.

SLU smartly scheduled Oneonta and Cortland and that produced a good ranked win. I will say SLU is VERY fortunate Hobart held on at the bottom of the rankings. I know some of you may view Hobart differently, but compare that to Bowdoin losing Conn Conn and Wesleyan as ranked wins.