Liberty League

[Saint_Dad]

I agree with a lot of what's been written already.
Nescac is just better.   They are also much deeper.  I could argue that 5 of SLUs starters from last year could have started on Amherst's team.  I could also argue that 6 players from Amherst's bench could have started on the same SLU team.  Look at conn college roster.  Almost 40 players.  Perhaps there will be a few on the transfer portal. 
As was mentioned, there is one top conference in region 1.  Liberty league shares with Rochester and SUNYAC.   That's 3 spots gone.  The most that the liberty league or Sunyac can expect to get in the NCAAs is 2.  Sunyac came close to 3 this year.  And if they can't get three this year, I don't see it happening any year.  Perhaps with Rochester and the LL having a bad year.  My conclusion is to not be overly concerned about SOS as pretty much the only way a LL team can make the tournament with an at large bid is coming in first or second in the league and losing in the final of the tournament. In fact I think SLU should get rid of the Hartwick Oneonta back to back weekend at Oneonta and replace it with a home weekend against weaker opponents.  Oneonta weekend always ends up with injuries.  Home weekend against weaker opponents would give team confidence and allow all players to show if they can play during the season.   

[Flying Weasel]

I have a math phobia, and this is slightly off-topic, but my sense is that some schools are masters at perennially scheduling one of the top two out of the weakest conferences as a way to boost or mitigate SoS...but the schedules of those teams that include the 2-15 teams in their conference also figures in.  I do know that a couple of 1-16 or 3-14 teams on the schedule can do a lot of SoS damage.  And sometimes you just don't know.  You could have Centre the year the make the Final Four or a subsequent season where they are below .500.

Any bubble team needs to weed their schedule of the 2-15-0 and 3-14-1 teams in their non-conference schedule to give themselves a fighting change.  Those opponents kill, kill, KILL one's SOS.  In my opinion, unfairly so.

If the current SOS computation is to remain in place versus undergoing a major overhaul, that I still strongly believe in and propose a modification to place a floor on the OWP.  Any opponents' record below .400 (or .425 or .450) for SOS computational purposes should be taken as .400 (or .425 or .450).  Bad teams are bad teams, and after a certain point, the difference in the probability of a win/risk of a loss is irrelevant for teams deserving of consideration for an at-large tournament berth.  What the threshold should be would require some parametric studies and experimentation applied to past seasons.  But I think that would be a huge improvement in the current SOS computations.  Who knows, maybe Western Connecticut gets in last year with such a threshold in place.  Imagine if non-conference opponents John Jay 5-11-2 (.333), Westfield St. 3-10-5 (.306), Pratt 1-12-3 (.156), and Trinity-CT 1-11-3 (.167) were all treated as .400 teams for SOS.  Those teams killed a SOS that already started low due to their conference affiliation.  But should a win over GNAC's Rivier 6-8-3 (.441) speak any more to a team's qualification to participate in the NCAA Tournament than beating Pratt? For me those games are irrelevant and distinction between them shouldn't be made.  Or take Middlebury's opener in 2022, Skyline midtable Mount St. Mary 8-6-4 (.555).  Did that game prove that Middlebury was more worthy of a tournament berth than Western Conn?  The Pratt game alone was approximately a 13 pt. drain on West Conn's SOS.

     West Conn GP = 22, West Conn's SOS = .518, Pratt win pct = .156, Pratt OWP = .436
     Average contribution to West Conn's SOS  =  SOS / GP  =  .518 / 22  =  .024
     Pratt contribution to West Conn's SOS  =  1/GP [2/3 OWP + 1/3 OOWP]  =  1/22 [2/3(.156) + 1/3(.436)]  =  .011
     .024 - .011 = 0.013 diff.

If a .400 bottom threshold was applied, Pratt's adjusted contribution to West Conn's SOS would have been .020 or a mere 0.006 drain on their SOS instead of 0.013.  That would have lifted West Conn's SOS from .518 to .523.  Apply this to all their sub-.400 opponents and maybe their SOS climbs into the mid-.540's or higher which combined with their pristine 20-0-2 record might have gotten them in.

Now, that doesn't mean teams shouldn't schedule intelligently and challenge themselves more if they want to become tournament participants, but this would mitigate the impact of the horrible teams' in your own conference and any non-conference opponents that do even worse than expected.

Whether a similar cap on the high end would be beneficial or not, I've never decided.  For example, any win pct. over .900 (or .875 or .850) is treated as .900 (or .875 or .850) for computing SOS.  I would want to play around with the impact of that more before campaigning for such a change.

[Flying Weasel]

I agree with a lot of what's been written already.
Nescac is just better.   They are also much deeper.  I could argue that 5 of SLUs starters from last year could have started on Amherst's team.  I could also argue that 6 players from Amherst's bench could have started on the same SLU team.  Look at conn college roster.  Almost 40 players.  Perhaps there will be a few on the transfer portal. 
As was mentioned, there is one top conference in region 1.  Liberty league shares with Rochester and SUNYAC.   That's 3 spots gone.  The most that the liberty league or Sunyac can expect to get in the NCAAs is 2.  Sunyac came close to 3 this year.  And if they can't get three this year, I don't see it happening any year.  Perhaps with Rochester and the LL having a bad year.  My conclusion is to not be overly concerned about SOS as pretty much the only way a LL team can make the tournament with an at large bid is coming in first or second in the league and losing in the final of the tournament. In fact I think SLU should get rid of the Hartwick Oneonta back to back weekend at Oneonta and replace it with a home weekend against weaker opponents.  Oneonta weekend always ends up with injuries.  Home weekend against weaker opponents would give team confidence and allow all players to show if they can play during the season.   

Responding to the red bolded part in the quote above . . .

RPI got an at-large bid in a year in which they missed out on the Liberty League playoffs.  SOS and RvR made that possible.

[saint_forever]

The NESCAC is also simply better at recruiting students for school. Some of the top liberal arts schools in the country, naturally attracting top athletes who are also drawn in by the excellent athletics record. During my time at school, I could never understand how conferences like the Centennial get so many bids. Not that those schools are not good teams, but truly not good enough to warrant the amount of bids they did. Last year Vassar and SLU won their first round games, and got bounced by two top 10 teams in the country at that time, yet the league continues to get little respect. SUNYAC getting two bids while the LL is weird as most LL schools beat SUNYAC schools apart from Cortland and Oneonta. I do think both those teams deserved at-large bids, no doubt, but Brockport struggled with St. John Fisher, and were a controversial bubble team. In my opinion, SLU needs to schedule a couple games out of region in non-conference. I understand playing in region helps your regional ranking, but why not bolster SoS by playing a few team out of region. Save a game against Potsdam and play a Babson or Hamilton.

[Ejay]

is SOS published anywhere?

[coach analytics]

is SOS published anywhere?

It's on the backup sheets of the NCAA regional rankings page....see the PDFs at the bottom. It contains data on every team.

[kevdog]

The NESCAC is also simply better at recruiting students for school. Some of the top liberal arts schools in the country, naturally attracting top athletes who are also drawn in by the excellent athletics record. During my time at school, I could never understand how conferences like the Centennial get so many bids. Not that those schools are not good teams, but truly not good enough to warrant the amount of bids they did. Last year Vassar and SLU won their first round games, and got bounced by two top 10 teams in the country at that time, yet the league continues to get little respect. SUNYAC getting two bids while the LL is weird as most LL schools beat SUNYAC schools apart from Cortland and Oneonta. I do think both those teams deserved at-large bids, no doubt, but Brockport struggled with St. John Fisher, and were a controversial bubble team. In my opinion, SLU needs to schedule a couple games out of region in non-conference. I understand playing in region helps your regional ranking, but why not bolster SoS by playing a few team out of region. Save a game against Potsdam and play a Babson or Hamilton.

SLU use to play teams out of conference.  SLU use to play in the Flower Tournament hosted by Rochester that would bring in teams who either won the national championship the year before or was in the Final 4.  SLU also use to play Rochester, Hamilton (although they were in the same league back in the late 90's), and Middlebury but not any more.  The colleges that make up most of the Liberty League use to be in a league that was one of the top Division 3 league in the nation with RIT and Ithaca leading the way.  RIT was consistently rated in the top 5 back in the early 90's I believe and Clarkson went to the final 4 in 93 I believe.  I don't think NESAC schools were allowed to compete in the tournament until 1993 when Williams College hosted it and was in the final.  I just think that it is the evolving landscape of college soccer. 

[Crossit4fun]

I agree in past years that was likely the case that LL was better than SUNYAC but not this year. Brockport drew against Ithaca (0-0).

These were somec of the middle of the pack SUNYAC teams

New Paltz beat Vassar, Skidmore and drew against Union (beat RPI in a friendly as well)
Plattsburgh beat Union & Clarkson and drew against SLU and RPI
Buff State lost to Hobart (2-3)

SUNYAC conference were very strong this year.  They had 4 or 5 teams in Region  III  rankings all season.

[stlawus]

Hobart's keeper let them down today, 1 goal off a bad rebound and the 2nd on a ball that was shot right at him more or less.  Watched the replay to see if it took a deflection but that was straight on goal. If the keeper just stood where he was it was a routine save.    The Statesmen did well to get it back within 1 off a defensive error.  This game showed how much Hobart used home field advantage in their LL run.  Their pitch is pretty small and Hobart used that to press and force pressure.   Seemed like they tried doing the same but with Cortland's pitch being bigger Case really hurt them on counter attacks. 

[deutschfan]

Right on per usual. No defense for goalie error. It happens at all levels. Check out the highlights of the Indiana-Michigan men's semifinal if they are around. Michigan's keeper gives up two rebound goals.

[Saint_Dad]

3 LL players make first team all region
4 make second team
5 make third.
Interesting thing is two first team LL players did not even make third team all region while a couple second team LL and an honorable mention LL make all region.

https://unitedsoccercoaches.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/2023-NCAA-D3-Men-All-Region-Teams.pdf

[soccerpapa]

Obviously can have the debate about USC rankings/awards but....

Usually, conference awards are based on conference play and this award is related to the whole years "portfolio" of play (or should be).

Not sure of LL conference works.

[Saint_Dad]

Agreed.  Just pointing it out.  Mogul led his team and was involved in a lot of the scoring at the beginning of the year in the non-conference games.  Henry Brown did all of his scoring in the conference games.  He was left off of all region while Mogul was second team all region.  So makes perfect sense.

[stlawus]

Since we're back up figure I'd do an updated commit list. 

Hobart-

Brady Leitner, D, Somers HS NY
Jake Hans, GK, Livingston HS NJ/STA Soccer
Will Hudson, GK, Kent School CT

Union-

Michael Lewis, D, Bridgton Academy ME
Alex Vittal, F, Belmont Hill School MA/Boston Bolts

Ithaca-

Kyle Sredniawski, M, Kings Park HS NY
Parker Giles, GK, Monroe-Woodbury HS NY/Tobar Futbol Academy
Emmet Enriquez, M/F, Denver South HS CO/Rapids Youth Soccer Club

SLU-

Grant Gilmer, Wingback/M/F, Mira Costa HS CA/Beach ECNL
Tommy Maidment, CB/CDM, Nichols School NY/WNY Flash
Kyle Reddish, M/CDM, Needham HS MA

Vassar-

Ken Hoang, M/F, Bergen Catholic HS NJ
Josh Lee, F, Liberty HS PA/FC Delco
Quinn Davidson, GK, Mamaroneck HS NY
Jack Staples, Summit HS NJ

Clarkson-

Dylan Nahas, F, Gardner-Webb University
Hudson Lewis, M, Erksine College

Bard-

Devin James, F, Hoover Vestavia HS AL

Skidmore-

Rowan McLear, GK, Beaver Country Day MA/IDA Valencia


*No currently known recruits for RPI and RIT

[stlawus]

One more for SLU.   Ben Dietrich, CM/D, Newton South HS MA/New England Surf.