2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[Falconer]

Well, someone might well beat Messiah 2014 this fall--we'll find out. You never know what will happen on the field, especially in this sport. The Falcons could (say) outshoot someone, 25-3, but lose 1-0 or in PKs. I doubt there is a better team out there this year, but there are plenty of really good ones and that's why they play them, isn't it? I don't normally like to make predictions, but I decided to throw caution to the wind and go with my gut this year. I haven't seen any other team this fall that's nearly as good as Messiah, and since we have so many 3-year starters among the seniors we aren't likely to choke. Still, you have to put the ball into the goal, and there's 11 other guys trying to prevent you from doing that, so nothing--nothing--is a foregone conclusion.

Their bracket seems less competitive than the other three brackets, but there are still some tough teams in there. Dickinson nearly scored 3 goals against us earlier in the season (they were credited with 2 and our keeper blocked a PK), which would have been the most goals scored against us in a very long time. I'm glad they made the tournament--they deserved to.

In the past couple of years, I would have said that Loras was the team with the best chance to beat the Falcons. They probably aren't quite as strong this fall, esp with that major injury. Messiah has never beaten Trinity, but we've played them just once (Trinity beat us 1-0 in the national semi several years ago, when one of our defenders playing a new position let a ball go right through his legs and onto the feet of their striker). Wheaton apparently has some dynamite on the offensive side, and I don't think this year's Falcons are as quite strong in the back as some of our previous champions, so who knows?

I don't want to turn this into a "who can beat Messiah?" thread, so let me ask a question of another sort: who knows anything about St Scholastica? They score goals in buckets against weak opponents, but they were good enough to get a place in the dance. How good are they, really? Are they even half as good as their statistics suggest? Who's seen them play a decent opponent?

[D3 Scout]

CSS played two tournament teams this fall and lost to both of them. They lost 3-1 @Trinity and 3-0 @GAC. They have not played a tournament worthy team in two months and I believe that Chicago's possession style of play will slow down their attack and ultimately end CSS's season in the first round.

[Cheesehead Henry]

I don't want to turn this into a "who can beat Messiah?" thread, so let me ask a question of another sort: who knows anything about St Scholastica? They score goals in buckets against weak opponents, but they were good enough to get a place in the dance. How good are they, really? Are they even half as good as their statistics suggest? Who's seen them play a decent opponent?

Since they are in a quad with 3 other capable teams, it will be very interesting to see how they fare. I do know they lost to GAC earlier in the year 3-0, which is a highly regarded squad that is battle-tested within the MIAC, IIAC, and WIAC. That game wasn't very pretty for a scoreline, however the game before that they beat Carleton 2-0 which also is a capable squad in the MIAC. With the IIAC conference tourney champs Wartburg, as well as U of Chicago (who could have and possibly should've beaten Loras earlier this year), this end of the bracket I think is highly underrated considering the winner of this quad takes on presumably Wheaton.

[PaulNewman]

Who could beat Messiah 2014?  Messiah 2013...

The best national final would be Messiah's 1st 11 against their 2nd 11.

Teams that could beat them, maybe?  I agree mostly with lastguy.....Wheaton, Kenyon, Oneonta, maybe Trinity....but those teams are all teams that could be beaten long before they get to Messiah. 

And I'll have to be honest, and I heard this on the Messiah broadcast too.  The idea that Messiah and F&M are even vaguely entitled to play for the national title against each other because of the coaching connection to Messiah I find nauseating.  Enough things are set up to go the Messiah way already (and mostly deservedly so).  We don't need Messiah AND Messiah Juniors making up every final four.

[PaulNewman]

What, is everybody eating or dealing with kids?  Come on, we've got critical D3 games to talk about.

Some first round beauties....

Rochester vs Salisbury

Brockport vs Bowdoin

Chicago vs St Scholastica

GAC vs Dominican

Newark vs Babson (and why did some say Babson is hosting....this is at Cortland, right?)

Dickinson vs Tufts

And the best 4 team pod of all....Lynchburg vs CNU and Stevens vs Montclair

Likely 2nd round blockbusters....

Rochester/Salisbury vs F&M

Brockport/Bowdoin vs Brandeis

Amherst vs SLU

UWW vs Wheaton (Ill)

Newark/Babson vs Cortland

Dickinson/Tufts vs Wheaton (MA)

OWU vs Calvin

Kenyon vs North Park

Emory vs Whitworth

Montclair vs CNU


On the who can beat Messiah question, I would add Wartburg IF they were playing in a round of 32 or sweet 16 game, but we may get a Wartburg vs Wheaton (Ill) sweet 16 game which would be an absolute war and I would give Wartburg a good chance even though I think Wheaton has the 2nd most talent of any team in the country.

[TheSoccerGod10]

I have a tough time seeing anyone knocking off Messiah in the tournament. Yes they are heavy favorites as they should be but that's not the reason for my pick. No one has the experience that they do. The only thing hurting the Falcons right now is that they haven't lost in over a year (Lycoming in 2013). And speaking of Lycoming, disappointed in the committee for snubbing the Warriors. 15-3-3 with 2 of their 3 losses coming at Messiah gives them essentially only one loss this year and good wins including, at the time, #13 Rochester as well as a top 10 defense in the country. Yet the committee picks Dickinson (11-5-2) whom is 0-4-1 heading into the tournament in their last 5 games. So much for a team getting hot at the right time. But back to the main topic. My first glance predictions are an Amherst, Wheaton (Ill), Messiah, Kenyon final four. Granted I will have a more thought out decision at some point. Good luck to all the teams that have made the tournament this year!

[Homegrown Harry]

First, anything can happen, but like you said IF Wartburg goes with their depth and plays to their potential a sweet 16 is very possible.
Then, against Wheaton, the same would hold true.  Watching them play (I have not watched their early season games though) it seems they have a deep and talented bench.  Need to take advantage of that rather than reliy on the starting 11 the whole game.  Based upon statistics/playing time, some of the teams in that region do not appear that deep.

[TheSoccerGod10]

Agree that UT-Dallas is a great mystery. However, given that the Trinity women are hosting the first weekend, I'm not surprised that the Trinity men are not hosting the same weekend, regardless of where they are sent.

Messiah over Calvin/Kenyon
F&M over Wheaton/Trinity

Messiah over F&M: one former Falcon player over another, at the coaching level.

Awhile back, responding to a question posed by someone else, I offered an opinion on the level of talent this year's Falcons have compared with some other NCAA championship teams the Falcons have had. I was reluctant to say (at that point in the season) that this year's squad is the best all-time, and I'm still reluctant to say that--let them finish out the season first. However, they might have the single best graduating class. At least five of the seniors are among the best at their positions in Falcon history: Payne (target), Ramirez (attacking and/or holding MF), Jack Thompson (left wing), West (GK), and Robbins (central defender). The fastest current player, right winger Kovach, is perhaps a step lower on the all-time list, but it wouldn't be a very big step.

IMO the most highly skilled player in this group is Ramirez, our version of David Beckham. He could be very important in the tournament, if the Falcons get a bunch of corner kicks and free kicks. He's more physical than most of his teammates as well, so putting pressure on him doesn't usually pay off. Payne is a great scorer with his feet or his head, an ideal target, but he can also create his own shots from the midfield or the wing. The most dangerous athlete of this group is Thompson, who can beat almost anyone with the ball and then cross it effectively: he's the all-time assist leader at Messiah. However IMO the most dangerous player on the whole team could be a freshman, Colby Thomas. His nose for the ball and the goal is unmatched, and the only predictable thing about him is that he will be moving forward and he will probably put the ball on frame, if it's not blocked first by one of the defenders he's in the middle of (he usually draws a crowd). I think we'll be hearing his name a great deal in coming years, and perhaps in the tournament as well. He's been playing a lot lately, b/c Brandt is apparently injured. I don't know the nature of the injury, how serious it is, or when it happened, but I don't think it was in a game. Does anyone have information about this?

Agree with almost everything said above until the Colby Thomas part. The worst thing possible that could have happened to the Falcons is the loss of Danny Brandt. Messiah is not nearly as dangerous without him in the middle of the field and Colby Thomas is no Payne or Brandt. The kid is still stuck at the high school level and too small for that position. With that being said Messiah is still the favorite to win it as always. 

[PaulNewman]

I wonder if Messiah's comparatively soft quadrant was subtly or otherwise impacted by avoidance of being placed in their bracket.  A couple of teams, and F&M is one of them, might have fared better by risking an Elite 8 game with Messiah, rather than having to run a gauntlet of 3 really strong teams.  At any rate, I don't see a single team in that quad that won't get overwhelmed by Messiah.  Wheaton, Tufts, and Muhlenberg are very good but they don't strike me as having the make-up to take on the Falcons.

Easiest roads to the sweet 16, in order of ease....

Messiah

Oneonta

Trinity

Wheaton (Ill)

Wartburg

Loras

Muhlenberg

Kenyon

Most difficult (no particular order but asterisks for really tough given team reputations)

Rochester/Salisbury***

Brockport/Bowdoin

Amherst/SLU***

UWW

Chicago

GAC/Dominican

Montclair/CNU***

OWU/Calvin***

Tufts/Dickinson***

Newark/Babson

[Off Pitch]

What, is everybody eating or dealing with kids?  Come on, we've got critical D3 games to talk about.

Some first round beauties....

Newark vs Babson (and why did some say Babson is hosting....this is at Cortland, right?)

Seems to have been moved to Babson.  Apparently Cortland has some issue preventing them from hosting. 

[PaulNewman]

The omission of John Carroll is just outrageous to me the more I think about it.  No other school that was ranked #2 even once in the 3 weeks is out of the tournament and they were #2 ALL THREE WEEKS.  They could not have dropped any lower than #3.  That puts them ahead of TWO UAA schools as well.  They have Ohio Northern in their conference, a perennial powerhouse, and some other good teams with Capital, Heidelberg, etc.  They were undefeated in their conference and won the regular season by at least a full 2 games and then in the 10th or 11th conference game they finally lost in a conference final (not quarterfinal, or semi, but a final).  They must be crushed after having one of the best seasons in their history.  Meanwhile we have a bunch of teams with 7, 8, 9 blemishes in the field.

[Saint of Old]

We have a 10 loss team in there as well.

[GarbageGoals33]

Anyone else a little tired of the Messiah and Trinity cupcake games leading to the Sweet 16 every year?

Messiah is beatable, or should I say drawable with the opportunity to advance in PKs. Haven't seen them play, but in D3 soccer anything is possible. With a good GK and an organized defense if you park the bus you can stay in any game. The one blemish on Messiah's record this season was against a below average team.

[Mr.Right]

Anyone else a little tired of the Messiah and Trinity cupcake games leading to the Sweet 16 every year?

Messiah is beatable, or should I say drawable with the opportunity to advance in PKs. Haven't seen them play, but in D3 soccer anything is possible. With a good GK and an organized defense if you park the bus you can stay in any game. The one blemish on Messiah's record this season was against a below average team.

I watched that game and Stevenson had 3 things going for them that others might find..1. Luck 2. Weather issues(Huge cross winds) 3. Mid week road game with Messiah seemingly not"up" for the game. You will not catch them midweek but the other 3 parts are possible

[GarbageGoals33]

Just for clarification purposes on my comment... Both programs are fantastic, both are usually worthy of a first round bye, but let's get these teams some tricky early games.