2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Sherlock, I hope this will be my last post on this.  I think RH is fantastic.  Seriously.  I think I posted sentiments very much the same last year.  His articles and insights, very similar to Cristan Shirk, are always very well done, thoughtful, entertaining, and well written.  I do seriously do like his stuff a lot and I imagine if we had a couple of drinks at a bar we would have a blast and a lot of laughs.  At any rate, I think very highly of him, based on the little I know about his OWU career and from this site.  That said, he was a decorated player for OWU where they are very much a family and Kenyon has been and is a real rival.  A little bias is to be expected.  I was reading what he wrote, published in a post before the article came out, and underscored there as well, in the context of his posts in the lead up to all 3 games this season.  If you go back you will see that there is a suggestion every time of some psychological/factual/tradition-laden hurdle too high for Kenyon to possibly overcome.  In this case, he's underscoring the odds of overcoming 37 years of history.  That's just one little angle on the current picture, and for me it was presented as THE angle.  And so I think asking how he thinks that fact came to be, and what possible relevance it has right now, and whether it's a suggestion of some predestined foreshadowing narrative, is fair.

Just one thing on broad historical facts being free from bias.  I don't think that's always true because choice goes into what facts are chosen and underscored as most significant while other facts may be minimized or omitted entirely.  For example, what team has given OWU the most blemishes on its record over the past 2-3 years?  The answer begins to shift the perception a little bit from the 7 years in a row, never beaten, etc narrative.  And on all the college websites, "facts" are usually laid out in a way that puts that school in its most positive light.

[1970s NESCAC Player]

How about this prediction:  The team that plays the best is likely to win . . .

[Sherlock Holmes]

Oh I totally understand where you're coming from here. He posted that fact here on this message board as a standalone thing. Of course in this environment, that is something that is more open to debate and is presented from his biased position as an OWU alum. After all, he didn't post his reasoning on why Kenyon will win here, just the fact that was pro-OWU. I think the whole debate simply arose from the fact that he had already basically written this preview and knew in his mind that the factoid was originating from that piece, which you'd have to agree was pretty unbiased on the whole. All you got was one soundbyte from that, before you got to see the entire piece, and that fact alone could definitely be used to sway peoples' opinion towards an OWU win, so that's what it sounded like he was doing. You wanted to debate that one point, and perhaps he took it as an attack on the fact that he was even considering using it in his preview, when really he knew it was just a small part of it that he thought was relevant to the debate on the board at that point in time.

At least, that's my take on this historic NCAC v. Harmanis battle that will forever go down in d3soccer lore. Now, back to you in the studio!

[PaulNewman]

OK, now where are those Messiah announcers???  Let's get them chiming in.

[Jump4Joy]

How about this prediction:  The team that plays the best is likely to win . . .

Those of us who have been around the game for a while know that this prediction is wrong about 50% of the time. It's a cruel stat, but the "lesser" team often wins in futbol.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Sherlock hit the nail on the head. My issue was with the accuracy of the fact, but we've pretty much put it to bed and had some good discussion about both teams and some of the relevant considerations, statistical and otherwise, for that game.

Speaking of which, I'll be in Gambier at the game if anyone else is around.

Here's something I've been thinking about. If anyone has read Christian's Sweet 16 article, it's pretty much favorites and ranked teams despite all of the overtimes and penalties in the opening weekend. I've thought for much of the year there has been more parity than normal, but we still somehow ended up with the usual suspects. Anybody think that's going to change this weekend, with more upsets?

[PaulNewman]

See ya there buddy, but probably after the game is best, either way it turns out.  We can break down the CNU-Whitworth affair and send in a report.

Make sure you take a stroll down Middle Path!

And the fact that we're both gonna be in tiny Gambier kind of says it all, doesn't it?

[D3soccerwatcher]

My prediction (based simply on my opinion which is likely wrong and which many will refute I'm sure)...but non-the-less here it is...

Final 4
F&M (making a run for second year in a row - Head Coach is former Messiah player with play-off experience as player and coach)
Wheaton (very talented and playing hard and quite well for their coach's swan song)
Messiah
Kenyon (making a run for second year in a row - during last year's playoffs --beat Wheaton and came close to going up on Messiah)

Final
Wheaton - 0
Messiah - 3
While Wheaton plays very fast and almost frantic at times, I'm not sure their north/south race track style (which gives many teams fits) will be able to penetrate past the Messiah defense.  Consequently Messiah possession game could produce enough chances to convert two or three goals.

[Mr.Right]

Messiah
Amherst
Trinity
Whitworth

I think the East is the weakest pod. I really do not feel any of those 4 teams have the quality to win it all.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Wow. Gauntlet thrown. Should be fun to read NCACNE and Harmanis' responses to that blanket statement 

If I had to chose a weakest pod, frankly I think it would have to be the Northeast. If I had to rank all 16 of the remaining teams' chances, beyond the obvious number one in the pod, I'd have to say each of the other three may not even be in the top half of that 16, and I'll try and explain why so I can't be accused of making a similar "blanket statement". I think I read in Christian's look at the sweet 16 that this is as far as Tufts, Cortland and Muhlenberg have all been in their current players' careers. My personal opinion is that Tufts and Cortland have been streaky in the latter part of the season, and Muhlenberg simply doesn't have the offense to win the whole thing. For me, that lack of experience and the other factors make me think if Messiah doesn't make it out of that group, I wouldn't put my money on any of the other three teams coming out of it.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Haha for that pod it depends on how you feel about Kenyon, to be honest. Nobody seems to know much about Whitworth. Christopher Newport is talented enough to beat anyone but they also have a lot more blemishes than your typical title team. And NCAC was right, this OWU is closer to the 2012 edition than the 2009-11 or 2013 teams. The question with Kenyon, in terms of a national championship, is whether they can score enough to beat a team like Messiah. That defense (when healthy) is going to keep them in a game with anyone.

[PaulNewman]

Sherlock, all of these jabs from our friend Mr.Right stem from a single comment about 10 weeks ago made by I think Corazon, and now, somehow, despite me defending his view, I'm now paying for it and it is anti-Kenyon to the death.  I guess the take home message is "Don't mess with Williams." Meanwhile, he has to wait a few hours before giving me a karma point. And all this after I pumped him up and facilitated his brief resurrection to relevance.  Too bad.  He does know a lot about D3 soccer.

As for the pod, I would give all 4 teams at a minimum a 40/60 chance against any of the other remaining teams in the field except for the Falcons, and in almost instances 50/50 or 60/40. In other words, take Messiah out of the picture and the tournament is completely wide open.  Of course, the problem is that Messiah IS very much in the picture and determined to make sure everyone else gets cropped out.

[PaulNewman]

Meanwhile, there is a NCAA tournament beginning in a few hours...

I keep thinking of all the overwhelming reasons to pick Wheaton, but I like Wartburg in this one.  I've been struck by comments about the frenetic pace that Wheaton plays at, and while that could generate a blowout, when was the last time Wartburg got blown out in a big spot?  The longer the game goes on and Wartburg is still in it I could see the pressure start to mount on the Thunder.  A little bit like Amherst, and despite having probably one of the top 2-3 fan bases/crowds in the nation, I wonder if Wheaton would be better off away from home.  3-2 OT1 Wartburg.

[PaulNewman]

I find coming to an opinion on the nightcap almost impossible.  These Iowa teams are so tough (main reason I'm picking Wartburg), but Loras seems slightly down and has fought like crazy to have a very similar season to the past couple of years.  Seems like it is Trinity's turn, and they probably have the slightly better team this year, but their recent results have been less than spectacular against less than spectacular competition. Loras 1-1 2OT 4-3 PKs

[KICKIN95]

Meanwhile, there is a NCAA tournament beginning in a few hours...

I keep thinking of all the overwhelming reasons to pick Wheaton, but I like Wartburg in this one.  I've been struck by comments about the frenetic pace that Wheaton plays at, and while that could generate a blowout, when was the last time Wartburg got blown out in a big spot?  The longer the game goes on and Wartburg is still in it I could see the pressure start to mount on the Thunder.  A little bit like Amherst, and despite having probably one of the top 2-3 fan bases/crowds in the nation, I wonder if Wheaton would be better off away from home.  3-2 OT1 Wartburg.

Wartburg's biggest advantage over many teams is their speed,  these guys are flat out burners!  I have watched tons of schools play this year and haven't seen a team that can match Wartburg's speed front to back.  I know every team has a "fast guy", but Wartburg is a "fast team".