2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[lastguyoffthebench]

Brandeis is not a final four team because history says, UAA will get a crap draw and/or underachieve.  With that being said, Brandeis has played the toughest schedule in the nation and only has one blemish.  They should be hosting all the way to KC and will be a force.


At this point my FINAL FOUR would be:  Messiah, Trinity, Calvin, Wheaton.           

[PaulNewman]

You guys up yet?  Big day in D3 soccer land.

lastguy, I appreciate your final four picks, all good candidates, but seems logically impossible.  How do you get Calvin and Wheaton in when they are likely to be in the same region (or placed out West with Trinity and Loras)?  Do you see one of them being moved to the New England/Northeast group?

Mr.Right, you are usually a stickler for logic.  You said you won't be convinced about Brandeis going to a final four until they win away at a NESCAC on grass and yet you said you expected them to be on their home field all the way to KC.  It's VERY hard to make a final four, obviously, and no team is probably likely to make it outside of Messiah (and arguably Loras until someone out West proves they can beat Loras in a huge game).  The difference I see for Brandeis this year is that there is no game in their region where I would say they are less than an even or better chance.  Brandeis IS better than last year, and the best NESCACs aren't quite as good as they were the last two years.  Of course they could lose a tight one to Amherst or Tufts, although the biggest danger this year may prove to be an Oneonta or SLU.  So far I don't think there is any question that Brandeis and Oneonta have been the two top teams in New England/New York State region.

There will be huge pick 'em games as soon as the round of 32.  Once we get to the Sweet 16 most of the teams will be capable of winning or going out.  Again, outside of Messiah, there seems to be more parity at the top than ever before.  Barring some early major upsets, I think we are going to get some dynamite final four-type atmospheres for all of the Sweet 16 set-ups.

FW, I've watched the Messiah play a number of times.  Even if Alvernia was scrambling to get in some position there is no question they were distracted and out-of-sorts.  That's exactly the reason to take a quick kick, right?  And I had not noticed how close the injured player was to Ramirez's set-up, which almost makes it look like a trick play.  The kid's head was in the way!  Anyway, if there was an injured player 30 to 40 yards behind the play I could see a "play on" situation, but in the final third, with an injured player who even though he sort of got on his feet clearly was not OK yet, I think the ref blew that non-stoppage.  Now please allow me to clarify something.  I like and respect Messiah's team.  I've listened to some Messiah games since my criticism of the announcers, and I retract most of what I said.  They have an excellent overall production, including reviews of scores around the country and comments about how other tops teams are doing, etc.  BTW, are you the Flying Weasel who goes by Flying Weasel on the broadcasts?  Great job if you are.  And please remember that Brandeis is my team in New England and yet I wrote here that Case Western got robbed @ Brandeis by a bad PK call.

And one more thing about Ramirez.  I didn't love how he took advantage of that play and he had been pretty chippy during the game, but he is an incredibly heady and clutch player.  Even amidst all of the Messiah stars, he arguably might be Messiah's most important and indispensable player.  One of the best players in all of D3...great, great player.  And of course I can't forgive him for his 89th minute gorgeous dagger against Kenyon last year.

And nice job by D3soccer.com publishing the All-District list.  I see there were at least a few schools that landed 3 players.  My only potential gripe would be that there is a big gulf between a 3.4+ in exercise science or criminal justice and a 3.85 in biomedical engineering at MIT.

[PaulNewman]

I suppose these situations can have the opposite effect, but I think Wheaton (Ill) and Williams both have a big psychological factor in their favor with their coaches announcing that they are in their final seasons with these teams.

I'm a huge Kentucky bball fan, and I remember in 1975 when the Kentucky team that knocked out Bobby Knight's great undefeated Indiana team in the Mideast Regional reached the NCAA final and was slated to play UCLA for the championship.  That UCLA squad was one of Wooden's weakest in their great run, but the day before the title game he announced that the final would be his last game.  Kentucky never had a chance (even though it was a close game).

[PaulNewman]

Games I'll be tracking closely today...

All four of the NESCAC battles, as Williams, Wesleyan and Middlebury fight to stay alive for a bid.  Also very curious to see what we ar going to get out of Tufts today who on paper should roll against a disappointing and wounded Conn College.

I'll check in occasionally on Christopher Newport @ Mary Washington as I wonder how much danger the Captains would be in if they lose.

I have only a passing interest in St Olaf @ Carleton but that game is an important one in the overall North picture, and apparently favored St Olaf never wins at Carleton.

Denison @ DePauw is a battle for the last NCAC tourney slot.  Will DePauw show up at home in the final game for seniors like Morrison after performing below expectations?  If DePauw wins this one, I would give them a decent chance to knock off OWU in the NCAC semis.

Kenyon @ Oberlin because Kenyon needs to win to avoid a return to Crawfordsville, and also to put a tiny bit of pressure on OWU to win tonight @ Hiram.  Can Oberlin muster one strong effort before their disappointing season comes to an end?

In the 4:30 time slot there are two blockbuster matchups.  F&M is @ Dickinson.  F&M thus far pretty quietly (for being a well-known team) arguably has had the best season of any team in the country.  I never would have guessed they would still be unbeaten.  Dickinson needs a confidence-building big win heading into tourney time.  And in the NWC Whitworth is at 1st place Willamette with the NWC AQ on the line.  Apparently the Willamette needs the AQ and are at home.  I am pretty sure a win would give Willamette the crown even if they lost to Whitman tomorrow (as they have the head to head advantage on Puget Sound).  Big day for the Bearcats program.

At 7:00, I'm curious to see if WPI can stay in the mix by avoiding a loss to MIT.  Even though it seems they should be out of the at-large picture, the regional rankings suggest Haverford @ Swat has significance (at least for the winner).  i may check the live stats on that one occasionally as I find the Swat field almost unwatchable on video (similar to Stevens).  I'll watch at least a few minutes of Hope @Kzoo precisely because the video is great.  OWU takes on Hiram at 7:30 and I'll only watch this one if Hiram is ahead or tied late.

I plan to get locked in on Wheaton (Ill) at North Park at 8:30 for the nightcap.

[Mr.Right]

After looking at Dickinson's resume it is not as impressive as the top 3 in that region. They SOS is only ok and they have 2  wins against RR but at 11-4 they need to keep winning as I am not sure they are a lock yet for Pool C.

[Mr.Right]

I know what I said about Brandeis but I cannot agree at all with the poster who said they have the toughest schedule in the country. Their SOS is 2nd in the country using the formula but after Mr.Right's eye test they have a lot of CUPCAKES on their as well. Mt.Ida, Mass Maritime, Lasell, Clark and a couple others are absolutely horrible. The difference is they have won against their best opponents at home. This is a good thing but I am still not convinced they can get thru the New England region. After watching Oneonta, I was not that impressed as they can be beaten.

[PaulNewman]

Dickinson may have some work to do.  For one of last spots, would you take Dickinson or Rochester?

Mr.Right, who IS your pick to go to final four out of New England?

[Mr.Right]

I would take neither. I think Rochester is cooked already. If Dickinson losses their resume looks like a last 4 out team.

I think New England is wide open and 5 or 6 teams have a chance. Usually there is one team from Mid-Atlantic region and one from NY region

[PaulNewman]

I personally don't think Rochester deserves to get in, but they will probably win their last two, and as Mr.Right pointed out they do have some results over big teams, so I'm gonna guess they are one of last teams in with bitter complaints about the selection.  I previously thought Dickinson was safe and that region is weak with Haverford and Swat amazingly next in line, but if they lose to F&M and then lose in Centennial semis they may well be out.

For someone who knows, can results in other regions (let's say for example that Calvin, Whitworth and St Olaf don't get their AQs) can that impact selections in New England and the Mid/South Atlantic, or because of D3 travel restrictions does that just bump out other teams in their own regions?

[lastguyoffthebench]

NCAC NE, you're correct about it being nearly and logically and logistically impossible but it was just a quick pick.

I haven't seen Oneonta St play this year, and that's probably a mistake on my part.  From what I've seen in the past from them, very technically sound with some pace as well.   I thought in 2011 they outplayed Calvin but Calvin buried their chances.  In 2012 they lost in PKs to MSU and in 2013 they dominated Oberlin but couldn't find the back of the net...

MSU is very dangerous in the final third, but they missed Mike Olla vs Rutgers-Newark.

I agree that Rochester shouldn't get in and that the SUNYAC is going to get 3 in if RPI doesn't reach the LL Final.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Little late to the Messiah quick free-kick discussion. Watching the video the thing that I found to be a closer call was offsides. It looks like Payne was definitely behind the last field defender, then tried to get back onside for the free kick. Not sure if he actually managed to do it. Plus, on quick free kicks like that the AR often reacts slowly too, and advantage usually does (and should) go to the attacking team.

I do think quick free kicks are a great way for stronger teams like Messiah to get an edge and find some space against teams that sit deep and defend. It's so hard to break teams down once they're set, making any scenario where the defending team is static and slow to get in position a great chance to get in behind.

[PaulNewman]

DePauw holds off Denison 3-2.  DPU led 3-0 and let Denison get close.  All goals in the 2nd half.  Kenyon up 3-0 on Oberlin at the half.  Looks like DPU will be going to OWU and Wabash traveling to Gambier.  Wabash heavily favored over Wooster tonight but if they lost not sure what the tiebreaker would be with DPU.

Still trying to figure out what happened in the NESCAC.  Gutty effort from a depleted Conn Coll side to hold off Tufts, and Tufts has failed to answer lingering questions about their talent-laden squad.  Conn's two looked like instant replays of each other.  Very exciting Wesleyan-Midd game that Wesleyan probably should have won.  They let Midd score with 4 min left on a GK miscue and had the win on their foot in the PKs but missed, and then missed the the first one in the next round to lose.  Amherst not especially impressive in a workmanlike 1-0 win over Colby but Williams is out of their hair and now they have home field.  Kudos to Bowdoin for going on the road and getting what seemed like a deserved 2-1 win.

[PaulNewman]

Looks like St Olaf couldn't get it done against Carleton.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Rutgers-Camden getting out shot 17 to 4.  Still 0s, 15 min to go


Camden goal in 93rd min...

[Domino1195]

Some fun in OAC land. This morning Otterbein was forced to forfeit a victory over Baldwin Wallace from Oct 25. That changed the standings significantly, with the outcome of tonight's BW-Capital game potentially making things very interesting. If Cap wins there would be a three-way tie for third. The first tie-breaker - records against one another  - is 1-1. The second tie-breaker - record against the first place team -is 0-1 for all three. None of the teams tied one another (third tie breaker) so the fourth tie breaker would be a coin toss.

If BW wins they would be tied for second with Heidelberg. They played to a 0-0 tie - the tie breaker goes to Heidelberg as they were the away team.

What a shock to see this forfeit posted on the last day of the season.