2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[PaulNewman]

Lastguy,

I'll be surprised if F&M blows out Swat.  Don't see that happening.

I think you are 100% correct about Messiah and your inference about the rest of the field.  This could change as the season unfolds, but right now there is Messiah, a significant gap, and then everyone else.  The rankings really should be blank from #2 through #5.  I don't think any teams have earned that lofty a status yet.  Loras would have been the team but they have some work to do in terms of proving they are at the same level of the prior 2 years.  I thought SLU might be a team like that and they still could be but they haven't shown that yet.  We certainly can't say that yet about Amherst and/or Williams.  A lot of the big names -- Trinity (TX), Montclair, Rochester, Stevens, York, Rutgers-C, Wheaton (Ill), OWU, DePauw, Ohio Northern, etc -- have stumbled, some more impressively than others.  Oneonta?  Brandeis? Time will tell.  Maybe a Wheaton (Ill) or Rochester because they already have faced some adversity and played difficult,challenging schedules?

F&M and Kenyon obviously have gotten a lot of early attention and rankings favor.  I know F&M is good, but are they really better than last year?  And did they beat any true powerhouses last year?  They had Rose-Hulman to get to the Elite 8.  I don't know how anyone could be really confident about saying they are #2 or #3 in the country.  I am pretty sure Kenyon is better than last year, and they did beat some very good teams to advance a year ago and pushed Messiah very hard.  That said, their schedule has been relatively weak and at least to this point the NCAC appears a bit down with OWU and DePauw having early struggles.  I fully expect the latter 2 teams to rebound (as OWU just gave ONU a thumping), but still, right now it is what it is.  Kenyon is a mature team heavy with seniors but also a good deal of soph and frosh talent.  How is the mix going to add up when the competition level ratchets up and some adversity strikes?  They are playing a high pressure, aggressive style.  Will they be able to maintain composure in big moments?

In short, Messiah looks like a lock again for the final 4.  This may be their best team in years with Payne, Thompson, Robbins, etc all seniors and some strong underclassmen supporting them.  They may lose in a one game scenario but we know it won't be because the moment is too big or due to a lack of maturity.  The other 3 spots appear totally up for grabs, which, from at least one vantage point, is exciting because there are a large number of teams who will feel they have the capability to make a run.

[PaulNewman]

Don't vote for Randolph or Curry in new poll as both lost tonight.  And Nichols tied Endicott.

Any scores for Wheaton (Ill) and Wartburg?

[PaulNewman]

Carthage smoking Wartburg 3-0 with 7 left.  Wacky season.

Wheaton handling Bethel.

And don't think I saw North Park on the latest poll.  Also undefeated.

[Flying Weasel]

And don't think I saw North Park on the latest poll.  Also undefeated.

North Park is ranked.  The poll is for unranked teams looking to move into the Top 25.

[PaulNewman]

Thanks for the correction on North Park.  Finally realized that later.  Another small correction.  The Oneonta-Rochester game was at Oneonta.

[PaulNewman]

F&M gets 2 in last 10 minutes to beat Swat.  Brandeis gets 2 in last 10 minutes to beat Tufts.

Messiah scored twice within 90 seconds in first 3 min of 2nd half and eases to 3-1 win as lastguy predicted.

For you Messiah faithful, is this year's edition potentially the best Messiah team ever?

[PaulNewman]

Do Loras and Trinity (TX) always get put in the same region?  Trinity doesn't get talked about much on this board where the focus tends to be on the Northeast (New Jersey, New York, New England) and the Midwest (mainly Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota and Iowa).  Do Hope, Calvin, GAC, Luther, etc usually get placed in that same region?  Any chance that Wheaton (Ill) would be placed in that region?

Teams like Christopher Newport, Roanoke, Lynchburg, Methodist, etc also don't get a lot of air time here.  What teams from that area historically (and currently) would be considered real threats?

And still waiting on a historical assessment of this year's edition of Messiah.

[Saint of Old]

Cannot do a historical assessment on Messiah until seasons end.
Unfortunately, unless they end up winning, this team will not be in the conversation of all time teams.

Its sad for many players from a few elite schools, but unfortunately anything short of a ring is a disappointment.
This  sounds a bit harsh but true.

[KnightFalcon]

Agree - for a Messiah team to be in the conversation of best all time they have to at least clear the hurdle that 10 teams previously have cleared. Let's at least see how this year's team does against York on Wednesday.  That said - I've always heard that the 2005 team was an all-time best as they won all 24 games and out scored opponents 15-2 in 5 tournament games. The 2012 edition went undefeated as well but with 2 ties and won the final 5-1.

[PaulNewman]

I understand that point of view but don't entirely agree.  It seems in the realm of possible that a team could be the "best" (within a season and/or historically) and be upset, and in that regard the greatness/magnitude of the upset correlates with the considered greatness of the team being upset.  As just one example that you have to be of a certain age to appreciate, for my money the 1984 Nebraska football team was one of the best ever (and lost on the last play of the Orange Bowl to Miami on a 2-point conversion try).  A similar but slightly different question would be whether this is most talented Messiah squad.

[Falconer]

I'll come out of lurking to offer an opinion about this year's Falcons, compared with other top Falcon teams over the years. My ability to assess such things is limited, since I never played soccer except for one year in junior high (most high schools did not have soccer in those days). However I've watched the Falcons regularly for a long time--almost as far back as when David Brandt was playing for Layton Shoemaker (http://blogs.messiah.edu/layton-shoemaker-tribute/).
This team does have a chance to go down as one of the greatest Falcon teams, but it's too early to tell. To reach that point, IMO, they must first win another NCAA title. And, they will have to go undefeated and untied all season, not just in the tournament. Just one Falcon team has ever done that, the 2005 squad under Brandt. To compare all-time team records, go to http://www.messiah.edu/athletics/sports/mens_soccer/archives/record-book.html .
To see the game-by-game results for 2005, go to http://www.messiah.edu/athletics/sports/mens_soccer/statistics/2005/TEAMSTAT.HTM.

That's obviously an impressive accomplishment, but not enough by itself to mark them as the greatest Falcon team ever. Consider this further information, and the case is stronger. That team had three (3) players who would be named POY, all playing at the same time. If you review the NCAA tournament games to see who scored, the two obvious names stand out: senior David McClellan (POY '05), one of the best overall offensive threats we've ever had, and sophomore Kai Kasiguran (POY '07). However, freshman J. D. Binger (POY '08) also started 3 games, played in 20 games, and already drew notice as one of the most talented men on the team. Indeed, our fans still remember what might be the most impressive missed shot in Falcon history, when Binger hit the crossbar with a rocket from a long way out. Had it gone in, it was a potential ESPN highlight. As it happens, it was the closest he came to scoring all season long, as he finished with just 3 SOG out of the deep midfield. He later went back into the defense, where he went on to become of the greatest defenders in Falcon history. He was undoubtedly the best soccer player on the club his senior season, and would have put up big numbers if he'd played on the front line, but he was such a superb defender and so well conditioned (he ran the mile in under 4:40, holding the all-time Falcon record) that you didn't want him anywhere else.

Binger wasn't top dog on defense in 2005, partly b/c Chris Claassen was. He was a 2 or 3-time AA who is still, to my mind, the second best on the ball defender we've had--Binger was the best. Behind him was Dustin Shambach, almost universally regarded as the best keeper we've ever had. He transferred into Messiah from D2, having played soccer and baseball elsewhere.

As for Kasiguran, he's probably one of the two best players in Falcon history. The other candidate is Hayden Woodworth (POY '02), who turned an excellent team without him into two championship teams--and almost a third, except that a serious mid-season head injury in 2001 set him back in terms of conditioning (he had to eat through a straw while recovering) and made him a bit more cautious in the air. Consequently, when he returned he wasn't 100% Hayden. It was a noticeable step down for the team, and we lost the national semi-final at home to Redlands. Taking nothing away from Redlands, mind you--they beat us fairly, and (as they say) injuries are part of the game. I'm simply pointing out how important a healthy Hayden was. In the national semi-final in 2000, our first championship season, we were down 2-0 at the half against Linfield College (Oregon), which had one of the best players our boys have ever seen, Chris McDonald. He scored both goals, and we didn't know what to do about him. In the second half, however, Hayden just took over the game completely, on both ends of the field, and we got 3 to win it. Two of them were PKs, but they were properly called. That tends to happen in NCAA tournament games--we usually see much better officiating than in many of our regular season games. (I hear the complaints about the radio broadcasters, but in my experience I just made a proper observation. I notice such things, because our style of one-touch beautiful soccer is far more adversely affected by poor officiating than some other styles are. When genuine fouls aren't being called, it really slows us down and unfairly favors a deliberately more physical side.)

I actually pick Kai over Hayden, but anyone would be jumping for joy to have either guy on your team. He was a high school AA from suburban Akron, and he turned down a scholarship from Akron to come to Messiah.  That speaks volumes about his ability. Suffice it to say that, like Binger, Kai could have played effectively anywhere and he did play several positions at various times, but IMO his best position was offensive midfield. From there he could seemingly score at will himself no matter how closely guarded he was (often it was two men on him all game long), even though he usually preferred to pass to a man with an open shot. He was so good at hitting the open spaces perfectly, that his first season he missed getting a bunch of assists, b/c his teammates simply didn't move into those spaces quickly enough: they just didn't realize yet how good he was.
Kai was an All-American all four years. He won POY even after the Falcons failed to advance in the national semis vs Trinity--I think that's the only time we've ever played Trinity. That year, he actually played hurt most of the way (a sports hernia), and it was obvious to many fans that he was a step slower than in earlier years. Likewise his senior teammate Patrick Lenehan, who was so dangerous on the offensive end that one of Trinity's coaches told Brandt afterwards that they had no answer for him. Lenehan had a deep muscle bruise/pull that did not heal during the season, and he played the final stretch significantly below his normal level of fluidity. Lenehan was on that 2005 team as well. Another guy on that team, Dan Wagner, was one of the all-time leading scorers in PA high school history. He was so short that D1 teams passed on him. They shouldn't have. With Jake Tassey (a player from before Brandt's years), he is one of the two shiftiest men who's played for the Falcons. Watch him closely for a few games, and you started to believe in creation from nothing. He had the second highest total points in 2005 (after McClellan), almost never getting those by cleaning up garbage close in. He usually started with the ball about 30-40 yards out and ended up shooting an open shot , often on goal (he led the team in SOG% the next year), from somewhere in the box, usually after moving all over the place and losing one defender after another.

I've gone on too long, much too long. Maybe I'll come back later and do some comparisons with the current team, but this is far too much for now. It will take some doing to convince me that the 2014 Falcons are quite as good as 2005.

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, thanks for that.  I appreciate your comment about style and officiating as well, while noting that every team is impacted by how games are called, other possession teams (while perhaps not at Messiah's level) can be impacted as you suggest, and of course Messiah has to anticipate and expect all sorts of strategies and tactics just to give themselves a puncher's chance.  I think we'd all agree that we'd rather suffer the Messiah conundrum is this regard rather than the opposite.

Getting back to just this year, barring a fluke scenario, I think there are only 3-4 teams nationally who have a chance of pulling an upset down the road, and by that I mean teams who might get a result or win once if given 3 or 4 chances.   The teams that come to mind at the moment are Loras, Wheaton (Ill), Trinity (TX), Kenyon, and maybe Christopher Newport or OWU.  I don't see a NESCAC team beating them but I'd love to hear an argument supporting that scenario.

[Falconer]

And I appreciated your very kind comments about the Messiah players--their attitude and conduct, not just their talent--during the Final Four last year. I know it sounds like I don't really mean this, but I do mean this: their attitude and conduct is a lot more important to us than their talent, or their medals. We want them to be winners, regardless of what the scoreboard says at the end of the game. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

I would still pick Hayden over Kai, but it's really close.    Has any other player won 4 titles by way of red shirt other than Josh Wood?

Good luck picking a best Messiah class ever...  I only threw three classes into the mix:

Messiah class from 2011 - Pres:   73-2-4.   259 GF / 38 GA.  Two NCAA Titles, 1 Round of 32 (slip up vs Neumann).   Two Conference Titles.
Messiah class from 2007 - 2010:  90-7-2.   312 GF / 50 GA.  Three NCAA Titles, 1 FINAL 4 (lost to Trinity 1-0).    Four Conference Titles.
Messiah class from 2002 - 2005:  88-6-4.  *242 GF / 27 GA* Three NCAA Titles, 1 Sweet 16 (lost to Salisbury in PKs).  Three Conference Titles.

*Could not find archived season for 2002

The current team is on pace for 309 GF / 50 GA...

[Falconer]

I hadn't run those numbers, last guy, thank you for that information. Whether or not Hayden was a better overall player, there's no doubt he was more important to the history of the program. Without him, we wouldn't have won the first two titles (2000 and 2002), and without those, we probably wouldn't have been able to recruit other high level (for D3) players, including Kai. In short, Hayden and his teammates were responsible for getting the championship tradition off the ground. That's huge.

Concerning the 3 tournament losses you listed, the recent one to Neumann was a shock. All of our boys were healthy, the team chemistry was everything it should be, and I saw no evidence that they took Neumann lightly. All of the credit goes to Neumann for a superb game plan, perfectly executed by very quick players, leading to a brilliant goal by a top notch striker. Had I not been a Falcon fan, it would have been really fun to see.

In the other two cases, injuries to our best player(s) definitely took the Falcons down half a step for those games. I already commented on the Trinity game, for which Kai and Lenehan (our top two offensive players) were noticeably below 100%. For the Salisbury game, the best target we've had in the 30 years I've been watching, namely Matt Bills, was seriously hobbled by a leg injury. He missed several games late in the season, probably came back too early, and wasn't himself vs Salisbury or anyone else at that point in the season. Fully to see what that meant against the top-notch defense that Salisbury had that year, look up the game-by-game scoring for 2003: http://www.messiah.edu/gomessiah/sports/mens_soccer/statistics/2003/TEAMSTAT.HTM . Bills, who is tied for the all-time leading Falcon goal scorer, and who scored 29 goals (!) the previous year, did not score a single goal in 2003 after Oct 22, at the end of a run (prior to his injury) when he scored 6 goals in 6 games. Without that injury, undoubtedly he would hold the spot by himself as top all-time scorer. Whether he would have scored a goal against Salisbury--and one goal wins that game--is obviously something we'll never know. If I recall correctly, that shootout went on forever. Something like 16-15, though no one should write that down as the actual score.

Bills was a bull, simply put. He wasn't subtle. He just went right through people to the goal, and if anyone else shot the ball harder I can't tell you who it was. The perfect target in our system: he didn't need to create his own shots, though sometimes he did. He just planted himself in or near the box, received, turned, and shot. He had enough speed, but he wasn't especially fast (I'm reminded of Josh Wood, though he was even slower). He could pass, but why would we want him to? He was almost always the best option available, once he had the ball at his feet in the box.

I wouldn't have gone into this, except that the context (which Falcon team has been the best?) suggests that such reflections are appropriate. Even without our best players hobbled, there's no guarantee that the Falcons would have won either of those games with Salisbury or Trinity. Indeed, that was one of the best Trinity teams (I am in no position to say which of theirs was actually the best), and they didn't get a title that year either. And, once or twice I think the Falcons have won titles that they shouldn't have won on paper. That's why they decide things on the field on a given day, isn't it?

As I said, I'll try later to compare current players to others. Can't do that right now.