2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[lastguyoffthebench]

Falconer,

Yes, that was my logic for putting Hayden over Kai.   I thought Messiah '99 team was going to beat SLU and win the title that year, and if not... one within the next few years (which they did).  I only saw Matty Bills play 6 times or so, but he was a machine. I listened to the Salisbury Messiah 2003 game on the internet, and totally forgot how long it took (I thought it was only 8 or 9).     

Players that I liked back then were Greg Giordano and Matt Snavely lock down defender making those runs out of the back...

Regardless of overall record... I think the 2002 Messiah team may have been the best...

[KnightFalcon]

I believe there are 3 players with 4 rings ... Josh Wood being one.

Don't forget the recently graduated class from 2010-2013. 88-3-4 overall record, 3 National titles, 4 conference titles (3 conf tournament titles) and a 4 year undefeated record in conference (1 tie).

[KnightFalcon]

Concerning the 3 tournament losses you listed, the recent one to Neumann was a shock. All of our boys were healthy, the team chemistry was everything it should be, and I saw no evidence that they took Neumann lightly. All of the credit goes to Neumann for a superb game plan, perfectly executed by very quick players, leading to a brilliant goal by a top notch striker. Had I not been a Falcon fan, it would have been really fun to see.

Sorry Falconer, need to disagree with your assessment of that Neumann game other than, yes, it was a shock. Neumann came into that 2nd round game having won on PKs against Salisbury. Right from the start it was obvious they had no intention of playing soccer but wanted to go straight to PKs and take their chances. So what we got was one of ugliest displays of bunker ball/delay the game I have seen. Though Messiah struck wood a couple of times, the game went to OT at 0-0. A very long free kick taken by the goalie landed at the opposite 18, bounced up toward the goal where the Messiah goalie, a defender and Nuemann forward converged, jumped up, and collided at the PK spot after which the ball trickled into the goal. Give Neumann and that forward credit for making it happen, but I'm not sure I would use the word brilliant to describe it.

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, continued good stuff.  And thanks for seeing that someone critiquing the announcers doesn't mean he can't appreciate the greatness and class of the Messiah program overall.  I do believe you that you appreciate class and conduct as much or more than winning.  I also believe the players would be bitterly disappointed by losing but also lose "the right way" and credit their opponents more graciously than almost any team in the country. 

A couple of stray points.  All teams are impacted by how the officiating goes.  A physical team is hurt by a ref that calls the game very close.  And great teams overcome all kinds of strategies to defeat them.  Wouldn't we be disappointed if Neumann had tried to play Messiah straight up and not even try to win? The championships mean more when everyone has tried their darnedest to defeat you.  I still would never expect Messiah not to score against an inferior opponent who put 10 men behind the ball.  There was a point Ryan Harmanis made last year comparing great Messiah teams with great OWU teams.  They play a similar style but Messiah overall has been physically much bigger.  They are one of the biggest teams I've seen, and even smaller guys like Thompson are powerfully built, strong, and fast.  I'm not going to feel sorry for Messiah based on any run-out-the-clock or fouling strategies.  The Messiah run is all the more remarkable because soccer games can go way against the run of play and to get through all of those games so many years in a row really is remarkable.

[PaulNewman]

Games of the Week

Tuesday

RPI at Williams (Williams probably has the toughest schedule of the NESCAC teams, and after losing to Babson really needs to win a couple of these other games in case they don't finish in top 2-3 in NESCAC and if don't win NESCAC tourney, and of course a win for RPI would be big for them come tourney bid time)

Hope at Calvin (Could decide their league and/or home field for their tourney although I think both get in this year)

Wheaton (Ill) at Chicago (Wheaton must have toughest schedule in country with CNU, Rutgers-C, Wash U, York, and maybe Williams contenders....and Wheaton is looking very strong and has to be considered a strong final 4 possibility...Chicago needs a signature win as they have not done enough to snare a bid if they have just an average UAA outcome)

Gordon at ECSU (Gordon has a couple of their tougher games this week -- also WNEC on Saturday -- and we don't have a great way of evaluating how much of a threat they might be given weak schedule)

Coast Guard at Conn College (They could play first half at Conn and take a 30 sec walk to play 2nd half at Coast Guard...bragging rights for the great seaport of New London....great bridge)

NC Wesleyan at Virginia Wesleyan (Why do so many schools have a 'Wesleyan' in them?)

Heidelberg at Oberlin (Two teams with fairly high aspirations really struggling and thus far disappointing, and at a point where will have to win conference tournament for NCAA bid)

Wednesday

Brandeis at Babson (Will Brandeis slip up after big Tufts win? And will Babson add another signature win to bolster its resume?)

Salisbury at Roanoke (Roanoke is one of those teams no one talks about.  Are they really good?  A good South Atlantic clash.)

Emory at Birmingham-Southern (Don't know enough to comment but seems like an interesting match-up down South)

Christopher Newport at Lynchburg (I'm more and more on the CNU bandwagon.  Can they make a deep run?)

York at Messiah (I don't see York slowing down the Falcon freight train, at least not right now)

St Olaf at Luther (Is Luther totally legit, or is this a big trap game for them?)

MIT at Tufts (MIT has seemed under the radar and Tufts needs to bounce right back)

WNEC at Wesleyan (The kind of game Wesleyan needs to win to make sure they don't end up on the wrong side of the bubble down the road)

William Paterson at Rutgers-C and Richard Stockton at TCNJ ( Not a NJAC expert but the picture is so clouded in the NJAC right now maybe the results hear will help begin to sort things out)

Friday

Wheaton (Ill) at Wash U (Another tough road game for the Thunder and Wash U needs a big win to bolster what will likely be a 4-2-1 or 3-3-1 UAA finish)

Saturday

DePauw at Kenyon (Finally a real test for Kenyon against a DePauw squad that I still think is one of the most talented in the country, and DePauw needs to win some of these games versus Kenyon and OWU unless they are positive they will win NCAC tourney)

Amherst at Tufts (Big opportunity for the Jumbos)

York at Christopher Newport (Another tough game for both of these teams?  They will be battle-tested come tourney time if they can get bids)

Williams at Conn College (A game that interestingly Williams may need just as much as Conn does)

Rochester at Lycoming (Lycoming quietly having a good season and a win against the Yellow Jackets would make them more than just the team who lucked into a PK win over Messiah last year)

Babson at MIT (Big NEWMAC contest to perhaps produce who will be the challenger to the other Wheaton)

Montclair at Richard Stockton (Is Montclair in trouble?  What would a loss do to them now?)

North Park vs Rose-Hulman (North Park needs some more good wins to increase odds for a bid)

Scranton at Susquehanna (Don't know a thing about these teams but strikes me as a good matchup)

Hamilton at Wesleyan (Big trap game for Wesleyan)

Gordon at WNEC (see previous Gordon comment)

Vassar at Skidmore (Major Liberty League contest)

St Johns at GAC (Is GAC going to run away and hide from rest of the conference?)

Muhlenberg at Gettysburg (Is Muhlenberg a serious contender in the Centennial?)

Carnegie Mellon at Grove City (CMU needs this one if they have any hopes of challenging the rest of the season)

Swarthmore at Johns Hopkins (Big game for both teams after I think both lost this past weekend)

Carthage at Chicago (Loss could be a big nail in the coffin for either of these teams)

[lastguyoffthebench]

Taking a shot at the top 25 here....

1.   Messiah
2.   Kenyon
3.   SUNY Oneonta
4.   Trinity
5.   Brandeis
6.   F&M
7.   Emory
8.   Hope
9.   Luther
10.  CNU
11.  Loras
12.  Amherst
13.  Whitworth
14.  Rochester
15.  OWU
16.  Wheaton Ill
17.  RPI
18.  Salisbury
19.  Wheaton MA
20.  Muhlenberg
21.  North Park
22   St. Norbert
23.  Colorado College
24.  Rose-Hulman
25.  Middlebury

RV - Swat, DePauw, GAC, UCSC, Birmingham-Southern

[lastguyoffthebench]

Salisbury at Roanoke (Roanoke is one of those teams no one talks about.  Are they really good?  A good South Atlantic clash.) 
     -This one is a coin flip to me... but I'd give the give the edge for Salisbury to maybe pull it out.   1-1 draw. 

Emory at Birmingham-Southern (Don't know enough to comment but seems like an interesting match-up down South)
     -Birmingham hasn't really been tested, would expect a 4-1 Emory win here.  (Emory has won 4-2, 5-0 last two years).

Christopher Newport at Lynchburg (I'm more and more on the CNU bandwagon.  Can they make a deep run?)
     -CNU is legit and could be elite 8/final 4 bound from the South.  CNU rolls 3-1. 

York at Messiah (I don't see York slowing down the Falcon freight train, at least not right now).
     -York is definitely as not good as they were last year, Messiah keeps on rolling...  Revenge game 3-0.

William Paterson at Rutgers-C and Richard Stockton at TCNJ ( Not a NJAC expert but the picture is so clouded in the NJAC right now maybe the results hear will help begin to sort things out)
      -NJAC is always a crapshoot.  Gotta go with RU-C with their home record/recent NJAC success in a must win situation; 3-2.   Stockton has played some cupcakes, so I'll give TCNJ at home the benefit of the doubt  2-1.

York at Christopher Newport (Another tough game for both of these teams?  They will be battle-tested come tourney time if they can get bids)
      -York takes another beating and falls 2-0.   I don't see York getting a bid unless they win the CAC.  The south is getting very deep and it's already a pool where you don't want to be treading.

Montclair at Richard Stockton (Is Montclair in trouble?  What would a loss do to them now?)
      -Again, still tough to get a read on MSU.... they dominated the cupcakes... showed some heart vs Wheaton after being down 3-0...  I am not a believe in Stockton and I just think MSU will be too much for them to handle.   MSU wins 3-1.



York could get into the tourney if they make it to the CAC Final.  Pending the results of this week, York could already have 3 losses (to 3 top 10 teams; Messiah, F&M, CNU); and 3 draws.   Salisbury match now becomes a must win instead of, "a draw is okay"

[PaulNewman]

Thanks lastguy.  Counting on you for more color as we move forward from Mid-Atlantic and South Atlantic regions.

[Falconer]

Just a brief reply to NCAC:

I gather your point about Neumann trying to win was not meant for me, since I only credited them for trying to win--and doing so. And, I don't expect anyone to feel sorry for the Falcons. Nevertheless, the officiating I see in regular season games is too often sub-par. Players are knocked down without a call being made in situations that aren't close to 50-50, obvious and repeated holding is not called, and dangerous tackles are called but not carded. It's the last of these that disturbs me most, since injuries sometimes result from such things, and officials who don't nip it in the bud are only asking for trouble later in the game. Surely, this isn't something that is noticed only by Falcon fans; it must be happening everywhere else as well. There's good reasons why people sometimes say, Rugby is a hooligans' game played by gentlemen, and soccer is a gentleman's game played by hooligans. IMO, it's high time to clean this up.

Yes, Falcon players under Brad McCarty are a lot bigger (on average) now then when Brandt started coaching. He seemed especially to look for players like himself--short, quick, highly skilled, and smart. The short part is no longer in the mix.

[PaulNewman]

The polls on the site so far this season have been spot on.

In considering the latest one of what conference has the strongest trio, a gut reaction is that almost all of the conferences seem to be having a down year.  Before the season I would have put my money on Kenyon-OWU-DePauw, but they haven't had the results thus far to back it up.  The CAC, UAA and NESCAC would seem to be the leaders so far.

[Saint of Old]

DO not sleep on the SUNYAC.

[lastguyoffthebench]

From a top 3 perspective rather than conference as a whole for CURRENT performance.  I would say teams in each tier are interchangeable.  (SOS)

TIER I
1.   NESCAC –-- Amherst(2)/Middlebury(8)/Williams(5)
2.   UAA ---  Brandeis(21)/Emory(20)/Rochester(39)
3.   CAC --- CNU(24)/Salisbury(90)/York(7)
4.   Centennial --- F&M(13)/Swat(64)/Muhlenberg
-----------------------------------------------
TIER II
5.   NCAC  --- Kenyon(98)/OWU(18)/DePauw(108)
6.   SUNYAC --- Oneonta St(54)/Plattsburgh St(86)/Brockport St(28)
7.   IIAC --- Loras(76)/Luther(246)/Wartburg(149)
------------------------------------------------
8.   NJAC --- RU-N(43)/MSU(56)/RU-C(10)
9.   Liberty --- SLU(33)/RPI(46)/Hobart(16)
10. CCIW --- Wheaton(65)/North Park(188)/Carthage(80)


NJAC title or bust for the likes of MSU or Camden; will a regular season title + conf finalist be enough in the South that has UAA/CAC/NJAC/ODAC?
Salisbury or York could be in that same boat...

[KnightFalcon]

Taking a shot at the top 25 here....

1.   Messiah
2.   Kenyon
3.   SUNY Oneonta
4.   Trinity
5.   Brandeis
6.   F&M
7.   Emory
8.   Hope
9.   Luther
10.  CNU
11.  Loras
12.  Amherst
13.  Whitworth
14.  Rochester
15.  OWU
16.  Wheaton Ill
17.  RPI
18.  Salisbury
19.  Wheaton MA
20.  Muhlenberg
21.  North Park
22   St. Norbert
23.  Colorado College
24.  Rose-Hulman
25.  Middlebury

RV - Swat, DePauw, GAC, UCSC, Birmingham-Southern

Better move Calvin in there as they beat Hope 4-1

[PaulNewman]

Some interesting results so far today...

Kenyon spots Capital a PK and wins 5-1.

Calvin smokes Hope 4-1.

ECSU beats Gordon 1-0.

Coast Guard wins the New London derby 1-0 over Conn College.

Williams outshoots RPI 33 to 11 but only manages a 1-1 draw.

Wheaton impressively up 2-0 on Chicago on the road and quietly may be best team in the country not named Messiah.

DePauw getting healthy at home with 4 first half goals on Anderson.

And how good is Milwaukee Engineering?  Every time I look they are winning. 

[PaulNewman]

North Park sneaks out of Oshkosh with a 3-2 win in 109th minute after being down 2-0.