2014 D3 Season: National Perspective

[backyarddawg]

Wartburg has been good in the past.

What are the top teams out West, Great Lakes, North, Central which we might not know as we inch toward the NCAA Tournament?

[lastguyoffthebench]

backyarddawg,

In reference to York:  if they can somehow run the table, including a big win over Salisbury AND get to the CAC final, then there is a strong case for them to get in given their SOS).   It would also help if Miseri wins the MAC Freedom conference title and NC Wesleyan wins the USAC.

The South Atlantic got 7 teams in last year;  3 NJAC, 2 CAC, ODAC champ, USAC champ.      With Emory seemingly already a lock, that's another team.  Does the South Atlantic get 8 or 9 this year?   I would think at this point no conference will get three in;  Emory, CNU, NJAC champ, NJAC runner up, CAC runner up, ODAC champ, USAC champ.   Not sure where the SAA is this year in terms of AQ (Pool B or C)... but I would throw in Berry as well.


Last year:
NE -       13 teams
MA -         9 teams
GL, E, N - 8 teams
SA  -        7 teams
W,C -      4 teams

[Durantula]

Wartburg has been good in the past.

What are the top teams out West, Great Lakes, North, Central which we might not know as we inch toward the NCAA Tournament?

As for the North. There were 8 teams from the North last year, but I do not see that many going this year.

As of now, I predict the top three teams in the North being Wartburg, Loras, and Luther (all from the IIAC) I think they will all get into the tourney with 2 at-large bids and then the automatic bid for whoever wins the conference tourney.

I think Gustavus will win the MIAC conference automatic bid but no teams from the MIAC will get an at-large bid.

St. Scholastica and Carrol (who is not very good) will get an automatic bid from their respective conferences

I do not think any Wisconsin teams have done enough to get a group B bid this year (Oshkosh got it last year), but I admit I don't know about group B teams in other regions--maybe they are all not very good.

As a bonus prediction, I think Trinity, Texas will get put in this quadrant and be the number one seed therefore hosting the first four rounds.

Overall, Wartburg (last year losing to Trinity in double OT in sweet 16), Loras (last year lost in Final Four on 70 yard free kick), and Luther (last year lost in second round to Loras in pks) all are capable of making deep runs into NCAA tourney.

[gustiefan04]

The North Region and MIAC/IIAC in particular tend to get quite a bit of respect from the NCAA committee due to strong SOS- mostly from playing each other - IIAC vs MIAC. Its not for fetched to think the MIAC could get 2 teams in the tourny for this reason. SOS has proven to be heavily weighted by the selection committee in years past and both GAC and St. Olaf will have strong SOS and overall records come selection time.

IIAC should get three in this year again, assuming Loras/Wart/Luther don't go on an unlikely nose-dive.

Outside of Wisconsin, I don't think there are too many independent, Pool B teams left (UCSC out west, not sure of any other teams). UCSC is 7-4-1 with their best win against North Park. So likely a UW school will make the tourny as well.

[Durantula]

I'm just not sure that St. Olaf has any good wins to show they should be in the tourney. They have not beaten anyone ranked in any region although the tie to Gustavus was a good one. I could see them possibly making the tourney if they get wins against St. Thomas, Superior, and Carleton. So far this season they just haven't had bad results vs. bad teams.

[casualfan]

Not sure how long it's been since a UW school was not in the D3 NCAA's, mostly due to the Pool B bid. So it's likely one of them will get in. UWW may have taken a big step by also beating North Park. It will come down to the conference season though with UWW yet to play a conference game. I still think UWO has the inside track by playing a tough schedule.

[PaulNewman]

Likely top 4 seeds for each NCAA tourney quadrant based on results to date:

Quadrant 1
Brandeis
Amherst
Oneonta St
SLU/Tufts/Wheaton(MA)/RPI/Midd/Wesleyan

Quadrant 2
Messiah
Franklin&Marshall
Christopher Newport
Emory/Salisbury/Dickinson/Muhlenberg/Haverford/Rutgers-Newark (one or two of these moved to Quad 3?)

Quadrant 3
Kenyon
Wheaton(Ill)
Calvin
John Carroll/OWU/Hope/DePauw/North Park

Quadrant 4
Trinity(TX)
Loras
Wartburg
Whitworth/Luther/Colorado College


Other ideas, especially regarding likely placements of teams?  Emory could be higher but I doubt they get through UAA unscathed.  And I could see a dangerous team like Rochester, if they make it, being placed in any of the first 3 quadrants.

[Durantula]

Quadrant 4 looks about right to me as of now but there are some huge games coming up for that quadrant.

10/12  Rematch Trinity vs Colorado at Colorado this time

10/18 Rematch Whitworth vs. Puget Sound at Puget Sound this time

10/18 Loras at Luther

10/25 Wartburg at Loras

[PaulNewman]

^^^^^Agreed, as in every quadrant.

Are there any other teams that have been placed in West bracket ever historically?  Wheaton? North Park? Calvin/Hope? Wash U?  Or could a team like Emory and/or Rochester be placed in Midwest?

[lastguyoffthebench]

If anything, NCAC, the lowest team in Quad 2 would get shipped up the NE/E Quad 1...

Depending on seeding and hosting, the West probably get grouped together in a one weekend shot deal. 

Plenty of season left as the conference play begins to heat up...

[Durantula]

I'm kind of new to the NCAA bracket quadrant thing. Why do teams like Trinity and other Southern/Western Teams get paired with the midwest/Northern teams?

[Christan Shirk]

Looking at the Pool B / Pool C parameters for this year, I come up with the following.

By my count, there are 10 Pool B teams in 2014:
   Maine-Presque Isle
   St. Joseph's College (Brooklyn)
   Maranatha Baptist (I think they'll delare for the NCCAA tournament instead)
   UW-Oshkosh
   UW-Platteville
   UW-Superior
   UW-Whitewater
   Findlandia
   Nebraska Wesleyan (I think they'll delare for the NAIA tournament instead)
   UC Santa Cruz

I believe with Centenary (La.) becoming eligible this year, William Peace adding a men's team this year (which is immediately eligible because their athletics program is already tournament eligible), and the loss of Polythenic (aka NYU-Poly) to the merger with NYU, there is a net gain of one eligible men's team.  Also, the Southern Athletic Association (SAA) is now eligible for an AQ so their eight teams leave Pool B for Pool A.

So by my count . . .

No. of eligible teams = 398 + 2 - 1 = 399

Division III access ratio = 6.5

The tournament field size = eligible teams / access ratio = 399 / 6.5 = 61.4  < 64 max. (I assume this will round down to 61, but the NCAA has seemed inconsistent on that over the years.)

No. of AQ conferences = number of Pool A automatic berths (AQ) = 41 + 1 = 42 (one more than the 41 last year)

No. of Pool A teams is 380 + 2 - 1 + 8 = 389

The Pool A access ratio = Pool A teams / Pool A berths (AQ) = 389 / 42 = 9.26

No. of Pool B teams = 18 - 8 = 10

No. of Pool B berths = Pool B teams / Pool A access ration = 10 / 9.26 = 1.08, rounds to 1 berth (same as last year)

No. of Pool C berths = Field Size - Pool A berths (AQ) - Pool B berths = 61 - 42 - 1 = 18 berths (one less than the 19 last year)

[gustiefan04]

I'm kind of new to the NCAA bracket quadrant thing. Why do teams like Trinity and other Southern/Western Teams get paired with the midwest/Northern teams?

Mostly it has to do with what is most economical for the NCAA. The $$$ seems to be the primary factor year after year in placing teams and match ups for d3 tourney.

The last few years trinity has had to play a team from the ASC conference or even teams out west before facing a team from the North in the sweet 16  or elite 8. The SCIAC and NWC are at a disadvantage being so far away from the other d3 teams and almost always play a first round game on the west coast. I would be surprised if Trinity plays a team from the north eary in the tourny.

[KnightFalcon]

^^^^^Agreed, as in every quadrant.

Are there any other teams that have been placed in West bracket ever historically?  Wheaton? North Park? Calvin/Hope? Wash U?  Or could a team like Emory and/or Rochester be placed in Midwest?

Calvin did have to go out to Redlands along with Texas-Tyler for the sweet 16 games when they went to the final 4 in 2011.

[blooter442]

Mostly it has to do with what is most economical for the NCAA. The $$$ seems to be the primary factor year after year in placing teams and match ups for d3 tourney.

I remember when Colorado College had to travel to Babson for their first- and second-round games in 2012 (CC ended up beating the hosts 3-1.) Can hardly think that was practical IMHO.